arXiv subjects

Shubhendu Trivedi

Publications and source records attributed to Shubhendu Trivedi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Strong Lensing Cosmology with Population-level Calibrated Neural Ratio Estimation

Strong gravitational lensing contains key information about cosmic acceleration. Modern and next-generation galaxy imaging surveys are expected to provide high-quality data on $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ galaxy-galaxy lensing systems. The plethora and complexity of the data are likely to present computational challenges for parameter inference methods for fitting high-dimensional likelihoods, which are often analytically intractable. Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE) efficiently computes individual likelihood ratios that can be combined into population-level posteriors. We use simulations to study the capacity of NRE to jointly predict the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ and the total matter density $\Omega_{m}$ from lensing images and companion spectroscopic information. We also introduce a post hoc posterior coverage calibration procedure that mitigates the model overconfidence that is typically found in neural density estimation applications. Our experiments show that the errors on both parameters decrease with increasing inference population sizes. In particular, for 100 lenses in a standard $\Lambda$CDM Universe, our calibrated NRE model achieves median fractional uncertainty of $22.8\%$ in $w$ and $2.9\%$ in $\Omega_{m}$. This proof of concept demonstrates a potentially scalable approach for efficient cosmological parameter inference with large populations of galaxy-scale lenses observed in future surveys.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Pandora's AI Model Routing Box: Efficient Allocation with Costly Value Estimation

Heterogeneous AI systems composed of multiple models, architectures, harnesses, or inference-time settings can improve quality and efficiency by routing queries to the specialist who can answer most effectively at the lowest cost. Routing requires estimating each specialist's expected return, but this value estimation has a cost. Cheap estimators (e.g., embedding-based predictors) are fast but noisy, while accurate estimators (e.g., fine-tuned models with access to retrieval results or partial reasoning traces) are expensive. We formalize this tradeoff as an instance of Pandora's Box, the classical problem of optimal search with costly inspection. Under a Gaussian signal model, the resulting policies have closed-form value-of-information expressions that determine, for each specialist and input, whether refining the value estimate is worth its cost. We call the centralized policy Pandora's Router. We extend this to a decentralized setting, Pandora's Bidder, where specialists independently decide whether to invest in self-assessment before accepting an offered price to claim a query. Experiments across three domains---a standard multi-LLM benchmark, retrieval-augmented specialists, and LLMs with variable inference-time reasoning---show that Pandora's Router matches the routing quality of exhaustive estimation, while querying the expensive estimator far less often. In the decentralized setting, value-of-information reasoning improves allocative efficiency when competing estimates are accurate; when competing estimates are noisy, however, it can increase the strategic specialist's utility at the expense of others.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1\,pp of the nominal 90\% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Watermarking Degrades Alignment in Language Models: Analysis and Mitigation

Watermarking has become a practical tool for tracing language model outputs, but it modifies token probabilities at inference time, which were carefully tuned by alignment training. This creates a tension: how do watermark-induced shifts interact with the procedures intended to make models safe and useful? Experiments on several contemporary models and two representative watermarking schemes reveal that watermarking induces a nontrivial, patterned yet model-specific shift in alignment. We see two failure modes: guard attenuation, where models become more helpful but less safe, and guard amplification, where refusals become overly conservative. These effects persist even after controlling for perplexity degradation, pointing to alignment-specific distortions, not just quality loss. We address this with Alignment Resampling (AR), a procedure that samples multiple watermarked outputs and selects the most aligned response according to an external reward model. Using standard results on the expected maximum of Gaussian random variables, we derive a theoretical lower bound showing that alignment gains grow sublogarithmically with sample size. In practice, sampling as few as two to four candidates largely restores unwatermarked alignment performance in truthfulness, safety, and helpfulness, without hurting watermark detection. This is the first empirical study of watermarking-alignment interactions; it shows that a simple inference-time fix can recover alignment.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Recurrent Equivariant Constraint Modulation: Learning Per-Layer Symmetry Relaxation from Data

Equivariant neural networks exploit underlying task symmetries to improve generalization, but strict equivariance constraints can induce more complex optimization dynamics that can hinder learning. Prior work addresses these limitations by relaxing strict equivariance during training, but typically relies on prespecified, explicit, or implicit target levels of relaxation for each network layer, which are task-dependent and costly to tune. We propose Recurrent Equivariant Constraint Modulation (RECM), a layer-wise constraint modulation mechanism that learns appropriate relaxation levels solely from the training signal and the symmetry properties of each layer's input-target distribution, without requiring any prior knowledge about the task-dependent target relaxation level. We demonstrate that under the proposed RECM update, the relaxation level of each layer provably converges to a value upper-bounded by its symmetry gap, namely the degree to which its input-target distribution deviates from exact symmetry. Consequently, layers processing symmetric distributions recover full equivariance, while those with approximate symmetries retain sufficient flexibility to learn non-symmetric solutions when warranted by the data. Empirically, RECM outperforms prior methods across diverse exact and approximate equivariant tasks, including the challenging molecular conformer generation on the GEOM-Drugs dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

On Universality Classes of Equivariant Networks

Equivariant neural networks provide a principled framework for incorporating symmetry into learning architectures and have been extensively analyzed through the lens of their separation power, that is, the ability to distinguish inputs modulo symmetry. This notion plays a central role in settings such as graph learning, where it is often formalized via the Weisfeiler-Leman hierarchy. In contrast, the universality of equivariant models-their capacity to approximate target functions-remains comparatively underexplored. In this work, we investigate the approximation power of equivariant neural networks beyond separation constraints. We show that separation power does not fully capture expressivity: models with identical separation power may differ in their approximation ability. To demonstrate this, we characterize the universality classes of shallow invariant networks, providing a general framework for understanding which functions these architectures can approximate. Since equivariant models reduce to invariant ones under projection, this analysis yields sufficient conditions under which shallow equivariant networks fail to be universal. Conversely, we identify settings where shallow models do achieve separation-constrained universality. These positive results, however, depend critically on structural properties of the symmetry group, such as the existence of adequate normal subgroups, which may not hold in important cases like permutation symmetry.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

On Universality of Deep Equivariant Networks

Universality results for equivariant neural networks remain rare. Those that do exist typically hold only in restrictive settings: either they rely on regular or higher-order tensor representations, leading to impractically high-dimensional hidden spaces, or they target specialized architectures, often confined to the invariant setting. This work develops a more general account. For invariant networks, we establish a universality theorem under separation constraints, showing that the addition of a fully connected readout layer secures approximation within the class of separation-constrained continuous functions. For equivariant networks, where results are even scarcer, we demonstrate that standard separability notions are inadequate and introduce the sharper criterion of $\textit{entry-wise separability}$. We show that with sufficient depth or with the addition of appropriate readout layers, equivariant networks attain universality within the entry-wise separable regime. Together with prior results showing the failure of universality for shallow models, our findings identify depth and readout layers as a decisive mechanism for universality, additionally offering a unified perspective that subsumes and extends earlier specialized results.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

On the Need to Align Intent and Implementation in Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and estimation across disciplines, and (b) the varying technical requirements for establishing trustworthy uncertainties in diverse problem contexts. In this position paper, we aim to clarify the depth of these challenges by identifying these inconsistencies and articulating how different contexts impose distinct epistemic demands. We examine the current landscape of estimation targets (e.g., prediction, inference, simulation-based inference), uncertainty constructs (e.g., frequentist, Bayesian, fiducial), and the approaches used to map between them. Drawing on the literature, we highlight and explain examples of problematic mappings. To help address these issues, we advocate for standards that promote alignment between the \textit{intent} and \textit{implementation} of uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches. We discuss several axes of trustworthiness that are necessary (if not sufficient) for reliable UQ in ML models, and show how these axes can inform the design and evaluation of uncertainty-aware ML systems. Our practical recommendations focus on scientific ML, offering illustrative cases and use scenarios, particularly in the context of simulation-based inference (SBI).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Approximation-Generalization Trade-offs under (Approximate) Group Equivariance

The explicit incorporation of task-specific inductive biases through symmetry has emerged as a general design precept in the development of high-performance machine learning models. For example, group equivariant neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various domains and applications such as protein and drug design. A prevalent intuition about such models is that the integration of relevant symmetry results in enhanced generalization. Moreover, it is posited that when the data and/or the model may only exhibit $\textit{approximate}$ or $\textit{partial}$ symmetry, the optimal or best-performing model is one where the model symmetry aligns with the data symmetry. In this paper, we conduct a formal unified investigation of these intuitions. To begin, we present general quantitative bounds that demonstrate how models capturing task-specific symmetries lead to improved generalization. In fact, our results do not require the transformations to be finite or even form a group and can work with partial or approximate equivariance. Utilizing this quantification, we examine the more general question of model mis-specification i.e. when the model symmetries don't align with the data symmetries. We establish, for a given symmetry group, a quantitative comparison between the approximate/partial equivariance of the model and that of the data distribution, precisely connecting model equivariance error and data equivariance error. Our result delineates conditions under which the model equivariance error is optimal, thereby yielding the best-performing model for the given task and data. Our results are the most general results of their type in the literature.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Symmetry-Based Structured Matrices for Efficient Approximately Equivariant Networks

There has been much recent interest in designing neural networks (NNs) with relaxed equivariance, which interpolate between exact equivariance and full flexibility for consistent performance gains. In a separate line of work, structured parameter matrices with low displacement rank (LDR) -- which permit fast function and gradient evaluation -- have been used to create compact NNs, though primarily benefiting classical convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In this work, we propose a framework based on symmetry-based structured matrices to build approximately equivariant NNs with fewer parameters. Our approach unifies the aforementioned areas using Group Matrices (GMs), a forgotten precursor to the modern notion of regular representations of finite groups. GMs allow the design of structured matrices similar to LDR matrices, which can generalize all the elementary operations of a CNN from cyclic groups to arbitrary finite groups. We show GMs can also generalize classical LDR theory to general discrete groups, enabling a natural formalism for approximate equivariance. We test GM-based architectures on various tasks with relaxed symmetry and find that our framework performs competitively with approximately equivariant NNs and other structured matrix-based methods, often with one to two orders of magnitude fewer parameters.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

MCQA-Eval: Efficient Confidence Evaluation in NLG with Gold-Standard Correctness Labels

Large Language Models (LLMs) require robust confidence estimation, particularly in critical domains like healthcare and law where unreliable outputs can lead to significant consequences. Despite much recent work in confidence estimation, current evaluation frameworks rely on correctness functions -- various heuristics that are often noisy, expensive, and possibly introduce systematic biases. These methodological weaknesses tend to distort evaluation metrics and thus the comparative ranking of confidence measures. We introduce MCQA-Eval, an evaluation framework for assessing confidence measures in Natural Language Generation (NLG) that eliminates dependence on an explicit correctness function by leveraging gold-standard correctness labels from multiple-choice datasets. MCQA-Eval enables systematic comparison of both internal state-based white-box (e.g. logit-based) and consistency-based black-box confidence measures, providing a unified evaluation methodology across different approaches. Through extensive experiments on multiple LLMs and widely used QA datasets, we report that MCQA-Eval provides efficient and more reliable assessments of confidence estimation methods than existing approaches.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Improving Equivariant Model Training via Constraint Relaxation

Equivariant neural networks have been widely used in a variety of applications due to their ability to generalize well in tasks where the underlying data symmetries are known. Despite their successes, such networks can be difficult to optimize and require careful hyperparameter tuning to train successfully. In this work, we propose a novel framework for improving the optimization of such models by relaxing the hard equivariance constraint during training: We relax the equivariance constraint of the network's intermediate layers by introducing an additional non-equivariant term that we progressively constrain until we arrive at an equivariant solution. By controlling the magnitude of the activation of the additional relaxation term, we allow the model to optimize over a larger hypothesis space containing approximate equivariant networks and converge back to an equivariant solution at the end of training. We provide experimental results on different state-of-the-art network architectures, demonstrating how this training framework can result in equivariant models with improved generalization performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/StefanosPert/Equivariant_Optimization_CR

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Contextualized Sequence Likelihood: Enhanced Confidence Scores for Natural Language Generation

The advent of large language models (LLMs) has dramatically advanced the state-of-the-art in numerous natural language generation tasks. For LLMs to be applied reliably, it is essential to have an accurate measure of their confidence. Currently, the most commonly used confidence score function is the likelihood of the generated sequence, which, however, conflates semantic and syntactic components. For instance, in question-answering (QA) tasks, an awkward phrasing of the correct answer might result in a lower probability prediction. Additionally, different tokens should be weighted differently depending on the context. In this work, we propose enhancing the predicted sequence probability by assigning different weights to various tokens using attention values elicited from the base LLM. By employing a validation set, we can identify the relevant attention heads, thereby significantly improving the reliability of the vanilla sequence probability confidence measure. We refer to this new score as the Contextualized Sequence Likelihood (CSL). CSL is easy to implement, fast to compute, and offers considerable potential for further improvement with task-specific prompts. Across several QA datasets and a diverse array of LLMs, CSL has demonstrated significantly higher reliability than state-of-the-art baselines in predicting generation quality, as measured by the AUROC or AUARC.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains an open challenge, with limited research on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NLG. Furthermore, existing literature typically assumes white-box access to language models, which is becoming unrealistic either due to the closed-source nature of the latest LLMs or computational constraints. In this work, we investigate UQ in NLG for *black-box* LLMs. We first differentiate *uncertainty* vs *confidence*: the former refers to the ``dispersion'' of the potential predictions for a fixed input, and the latter refers to the confidence on a particular prediction/generation. We then propose and compare several confidence/uncertainty measures, applying them to *selective NLG* where unreliable results could either be ignored or yielded for further assessment. Experiments were carried out with several popular LLMs on question-answering datasets (for evaluation purposes). Results reveal that a simple measure for the semantic dispersion can be a reliable predictor of the quality of LLM responses, providing valuable insights for practitioners on uncertainty management when adopting LLMs. The code to replicate our experiments is available at https://github.com/zlin7/UQ-NLG.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Position Paper: Generalized grammar rules and structure-based generalization beyond classical equivariance for lexical tasks and transduction

Compositional generalization is one of the main properties which differentiates lexical learning in humans from state-of-art neural networks. We propose a general framework for building models that can generalize compositionally using the concept of Generalized Grammar Rules (GGRs), a class of symmetry-based compositional constraints for transduction tasks, which we view as a transduction analogue of equivariance constraints in physics-inspired tasks. Besides formalizing generalized notions of symmetry for language transduction, our framework is general enough to contain many existing works as special cases. We present ideas on how GGRs might be implemented, and in the process draw connections to reinforcement learning and other areas of research.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Fast Online Value-Maximizing Prediction Sets with Conformal Cost Control

Many real-world multi-label prediction problems involve set-valued predictions that must satisfy specific requirements dictated by downstream usage. We focus on a typical scenario where such requirements, separately encoding $\textit{value}$ and $\textit{cost}$, compete with each other. For instance, a hospital might expect a smart diagnosis system to capture as many severe, often co-morbid, diseases as possible (the value), while maintaining strict control over incorrect predictions (the cost). We present a general pipeline, dubbed as FavMac, to maximize the value while controlling the cost in such scenarios. FavMac can be combined with almost any multi-label classifier, affording distribution-free theoretical guarantees on cost control. Moreover, unlike prior works, it can handle real-world large-scale applications via a carefully designed online update mechanism, which is of independent interest. Our methodological and theoretical contributions are supported by experiments on several healthcare tasks and synthetic datasets - FavMac furnishes higher value compared with several variants and baselines while maintaining strict cost control. Our code is available at https://github.com/zlin7/FavMac

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Taking a Step Back with KCal: Multi-Class Kernel-Based Calibration for Deep Neural Networks

Deep neural network (DNN) classifiers are often overconfident, producing miscalibrated class probabilities. In high-risk applications like healthcare, practitioners require $\textit{fully calibrated}$ probability predictions for decision-making. That is, conditioned on the prediction $\textit{vector}$, $\textit{every}$ class' probability should be close to the predicted value. Most existing calibration methods either lack theoretical guarantees for producing calibrated outputs, reduce classification accuracy in the process, or only calibrate the predicted class. This paper proposes a new Kernel-based calibration method called KCal. Unlike existing calibration procedures, KCal does not operate directly on the logits or softmax outputs of the DNN. Instead, KCal learns a metric space on the penultimate-layer latent embedding and generates predictions using kernel density estimates on a calibration set. We first analyze KCal theoretically, showing that it enjoys a provable $\textit{full}$ calibration guarantee. Then, through extensive experiments across a variety of datasets, we show that KCal consistently outperforms baselines as measured by the calibration error and by proper scoring rules like the Brier Score.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Conformal Prediction Intervals with Temporal Dependence

Cross-sectional prediction is common in many domains such as healthcare, including forecasting tasks using electronic health records, where different patients form a cross-section. We focus on the task of constructing valid prediction intervals (PIs) in time series regression with a cross-section. A prediction interval is considered valid if it covers the true response with (a pre-specified) high probability. We first distinguish between two notions of validity in such a setting: cross-sectional and longitudinal. Cross-sectional validity is concerned with validity across the cross-section of the time series data, while longitudinal validity accounts for the temporal dimension. Coverage guarantees along both these dimensions are ideally desirable; however, we show that distribution-free longitudinal validity is theoretically impossible. Despite this limitation, we propose Conformal Prediction with Temporal Dependence (CPTD), a procedure that is able to maintain strict cross-sectional validity while improving longitudinal coverage. CPTD is post-hoc and light-weight, and can easily be used in conjunction with any prediction model as long as a calibration set is available. We focus on neural networks due to their ability to model complicated data such as diagnosis codes for time series regression, and perform extensive experimental validation to verify the efficacy of our approach. We find that CPTD outperforms baselines on a variety of datasets by improving longitudinal coverage and often providing more efficient (narrower) PIs.

stat.ML↗