arXiv2026
Coupled rollouts can reduce the noise of counterfactual action comparisons, but two issues prevent standard common-random-number constructions from serving as a general learning primitive in imperfect-information environments. First, an invalid coupling may expose hidden state, synchronize endogenous policy randomness, or misalign chance events after counterfactual histories diverge. Second, in multi-action policy optimization, lower return-contrast variance is not by itself the relevant objective: the optimizer depends on the return covariance matrix after projection through the local policy-gradient geometry. We introduce observation-safe counterfactual coupling (OSCC), a framework that defines an admissible class through marginal preservation, information-state safety, branch-local policy randomness, semantic event alignment, and trace-before-oracle replay. We derive a gradient-aware coupling criterion showing that, for marginal-preserving couplings, policy-gradient noise changes are determined by policy-Jacobian-weighted off-diagonal return covariance. This motivates OSCC-Select, a calibration-only selector that chooses among independent, root-only, continuation-only, and fully coupled rollouts using separate safety and gain certificates. Its gain target combines projected gradient noise with measured physical sampling cost and falls back to independent sampling whenever a simultaneous lower confidence bound does not certify improvement. On 100,000 fixed-root Leduc comparisons, the fully coupled CP-GRPO instantiation reduces return-contrast variance from 41.1158 to 18.1441, a 55.87% reduction, while preserving the declared branch marginals. With three actions, OSCC-Select chooses continuation coupling and attains gradient-noise trace 0.0783 versus 0.0917 for return-variance selection. Increasing calibration from 64 to 2,048 groups raises certification from 0.327 to 0.995.