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Shulan Hu

Publications and source records attributed to Shulan Hu.

6 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2023

On Time Uniform Wong-Zakai Approximation Theorems

We consider the long time behavior of Wong-Zakai approximations of stochastic differential equations. These piecewise smooth diffusion approximations are of great importance in many areas, such as those with ordinary differential equations associated to random smooth fluctuations; e.g. robust filtering problems. In many examples, the mean error estimate bounds that have been derived in the literature can grow exponentially with respect to the time horizon. We show in a simple example that indeed mean error estimates do explode exponentially in the time parameter, i.e. in that case a Wong-Zakai approximation is only useful for extremely short time intervals. Under spectral conditions, we present some quantitative time-uniform convergence theorems, i.e. time-uniform mean error bounds, yielding what seems to be the first results of this type for Wong-Zakai diffusion approximations.

math.PR↗
arXiv2023

Bayesian Parameter Inference for Partially Observed Diffusions using Multilevel Stochastic Runge-Kutta Methods

We consider the problem of Bayesian estimation of static parameters associated to a partially and discretely observed diffusion process. We assume that the exact transition dynamics of the diffusion process are unavailable, even up-to an unbiased estimator and that one must time-discretize the diffusion process. In such scenarios it has been shown how one can introduce the multilevel Monte Carlo method to reduce the cost to compute posterior expected values of the parameters for a pre-specified mean square error (MSE). These afore-mentioned methods rely on upon the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme which is well-known in numerical analysis to have slow convergence properties. We adapt stochastic Runge-Kutta (SRK) methods for Bayesian parameter estimation of static parameters for diffusions. This can be implemented in high-dimensions of the diffusion and seemingly under-appreciated in the uncertainty quantification and statistics fields. For a class of diffusions and SRK methods, we consider the estimation of the posterior expectation of the parameters. We prove that to achieve a MSE of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^2)$, for $\epsilon>0$ given, the associated work is $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-2})$. Whilst the latter is achievable for the Milstein scheme, this method is often not applicable for diffusions in dimension larger than two. We also illustrate our methodology in several numerical examples.

stat.CO↗
arXiv2023

Maximum Entropy Estimator for Hidden Markov Models: Reduction to Dimension 2

In the paper, we introduce the maximum entropy estimator based on 2-dimensional empirical distribution of the observation sequence of hidden Markov model , when the sample size is big: in that case computing the maximum likelihood estimator is too consuming in time by the classical Baum-Welch EM algorithm. We prove the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the maximum entropy estimator in a quite general framework, where the asymptotic covariance matrix is explicitly estimated in terms of the 2-dimensional Fisher information. To complement it, the 2-dimensional relative entropy is skillfully used to study the hypotheses testing problem. Furthermore, we propose 2-dimensional maximum entropy algorithm for finding the maximum entropy estimator, which works for very large observation dataset and large hidden states set. Some numerical examples are furnished and commented for illustrating our theoretical results.

math.ST↗
arXiv2020

Asymptotics for stochastic Burgers equation with jumps

For one-dimensional stochastic Burgers equation driven by Brownian motion and Poisson process, we study the $ψ$-uniformly exponential ergodicity with $ψ(x)=1+\|x\|$, the moderate deviation principle and the large deviation principle for the occupation measures.

math.PR↗
arXiv2012

Moderate Deviations for Mean Field Particle Models

This article is concerned with moderate deviation principles of a general class of mean eld type interacting particle models. We discuss functional moderate deviations of the occupation measures for both the strong -topology on the space of fi nite and bounded measures as well as for the corresponding stochastic processes on some class of functions equipped with the uniform topology. Our approach is based on an original semigroup analysis combined with stochastic perturbation techniques and projective limit large deviation methods.

math.PR↗