arXiv subjects

Shun Zheng

Publications and source records attributed to Shun Zheng.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Learning Differential Operators for Interpretable Time Series Modeling

Modeling sequential patterns from data is at the core of various time series forecasting tasks. Deep learning models have greatly outperformed many traditional models, but these black-box models generally lack explainability in prediction and decision making. To reveal the underlying trend with understandable mathematical expressions, scientists and economists tend to use partial differential equations (PDEs) to explain the highly nonlinear dynamics of sequential patterns. However, it usually requires domain expert knowledge and a series of simplified assumptions, which is not always practical and can deviate from the ever-changing world. Is it possible to learn the differential relations from data dynamically to explain the time-evolving dynamics? In this work, we propose an learning framework that can automatically obtain interpretable PDE models from sequential data. Particularly, this framework is comprised of learnable differential blocks, named $P$-blocks, which is proved to be able to approximate any time-evolving complex continuous functions in theory. Moreover, to capture the dynamics shift, this framework introduces a meta-learning controller to dynamically optimize the hyper-parameters of a hybrid PDE model. Extensive experiments on times series forecasting of financial, engineering, and health data show that our model can provide valuable interpretability and achieve comparable performance to state-of-the-art models. From empirical studies, we find that learning a few differential operators may capture the major trend of sequential dynamics without massive computational complexity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Less Is More: Fast Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Light Sampling-oriented MLP Structures

Multivariate time series forecasting has seen widely ranging applications in various domains, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare. To capture the sophisticated temporal patterns, plenty of research studies designed complex neural network architectures based on many variants of RNNs, GNNs, and Transformers. However, complex models are often computationally expensive and thus face a severe challenge in training and inference efficiency when applied to large-scale real-world datasets. In this paper, we introduce LightTS, a light deep learning architecture merely based on simple MLP-based structures. The key idea of LightTS is to apply an MLP-based structure on top of two delicate down-sampling strategies, including interval sampling and continuous sampling, inspired by a crucial fact that down-sampling time series often preserves the majority of its information. We conduct extensive experiments on eight widely used benchmark datasets. Compared with the existing state-of-the-art methods, LightTS demonstrates better performance on five of them and comparable performance on the rest. Moreover, LightTS is highly efficient. It uses less than 5% FLOPS compared with previous SOTA methods on the largest benchmark dataset. In addition, LightTS is robust and has a much smaller variance in forecasting accuracy than previous SOTA methods in long sequence forecasting tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

DEPTS: Deep Expansion Learning for Periodic Time Series Forecasting

Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its inherent periodicity as well as the sophisticated composition of various periods hinder the performance of PTS forecasting. In this paper, we introduce a deep expansion learning framework, DEPTS, for PTS forecasting. DEPTS starts with a decoupled formulation by introducing the periodic state as a hidden variable, which stimulates us to make two dedicated modules to tackle the aforementioned two challenges. First, we develop an expansion module on top of residual learning to perform a layer-by-layer expansion of those complicated dependencies. Second, we introduce a periodicity module with a parameterized periodic function that holds sufficient capacity to capture diversified periods. Moreover, our two customized modules also have certain interpretable capabilities, such as attributing the forecasts to either local momenta or global periodicity and characterizing certain core periodic properties, e.g., amplitudes and frequencies. Extensive experiments on both synthetic data and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of DEPTS on handling PTS. In most cases, DEPTS achieves significant improvements over the best baseline. Specifically, the error reduction can even reach up to 20% for a few cases. Finally, all codes are publicly available.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Impact of pandemic fatigue on the spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

In late-2020, many countries around the world faced another surge in number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, including United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil, United States, etc., which resulted in a large nationwide and even worldwide wave. While there have been indications that precaution fatigue could be a key factor, no scientific evidence has been provided so far. We used a stochastic metapopulation model with a hierarchical structure and fitted the model to the positive cases in the US from the start of outbreak to the end of 2020. We incorporated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) into this model by assuming that the precaution strength grows with positive cases and studied two types of pandemic fatigue. We found that people in most states and in the whole US respond to the outbreak in a sublinear manner (with exponent k=0.5), while only three states (Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey) have linear reaction (k=1). Case fatigue (decline in people's vigilance to positive cases) is responsible for 58% of cases, while precaution fatigue (decay of maximal fraction of vigilant group) accounts for 26% cases. If there were no pandemic fatigue (no case fatigue and no precaution fatigue), total positive cases would have reduced by 68% on average. Our study shows that pandemic fatigue is the major cause of the worsening situation of COVID-19 in United States. Reduced vigilance is responsible for most positive cases, and higher mortality rate tends to push local people to react to the outbreak faster and maintain vigilant for longer time.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

SEEK: Segmented Embedding of Knowledge Graphs

In recent years, knowledge graph embedding becomes a pretty hot research topic of artificial intelligence and plays increasingly vital roles in various downstream applications, such as recommendation and question answering. However, existing methods for knowledge graph embedding can not make a proper trade-off between the model complexity and the model expressiveness, which makes them still far from satisfactory. To mitigate this problem, we propose a lightweight modeling framework that can achieve highly competitive relational expressiveness without increasing the model complexity. Our framework focuses on the design of scoring functions and highlights two critical characteristics: 1) facilitating sufficient feature interactions; 2) preserving both symmetry and antisymmetry properties of relations. It is noteworthy that owing to the general and elegant design of scoring functions, our framework can incorporate many famous existing methods as special cases. Moreover, extensive experiments on public benchmarks demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our framework. Source codes and data can be found at \url{https://github.com/Wentao-Xu/SEEK}.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2019

Doc2EDAG: An End-to-End Document-level Framework for Chinese Financial Event Extraction

Most existing event extraction (EE) methods merely extract event arguments within the sentence scope. However, such sentence-level EE methods struggle to handle soaring amounts of documents from emerging applications, such as finance, legislation, health, etc., where event arguments always scatter across different sentences, and even multiple such event mentions frequently co-exist in the same document. To address these challenges, we propose a novel end-to-end model, Doc2EDAG, which can generate an entity-based directed acyclic graph to fulfill the document-level EE (DEE) effectively. Moreover, we reformalize a DEE task with the no-trigger-words design to ease the document-level event labeling. To demonstrate the effectiveness of Doc2EDAG, we build a large-scale real-world dataset consisting of Chinese financial announcements with the challenges mentioned above. Extensive experiments with comprehensive analyses illustrate the superiority of Doc2EDAG over state-of-the-art methods. Data and codes can be found at https://github.com/dolphin-zs/Doc2EDAG.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

DIAG-NRE: A Neural Pattern Diagnosis Framework for Distantly Supervised Neural Relation Extraction

Pattern-based labeling methods have achieved promising results in alleviating the inevitable labeling noises of distantly supervised neural relation extraction. However, these methods require significant expert labor to write relation-specific patterns, which makes them too sophisticated to generalize quickly.To ease the labor-intensive workload of pattern writing and enable the quick generalization to new relation types, we propose a neural pattern diagnosis framework, DIAG-NRE, that can automatically summarize and refine high-quality relational patterns from noise data with human experts in the loop. To demonstrate the effectiveness of DIAG-NRE, we apply it to two real-world datasets and present both significant and interpretable improvements over state-of-the-art methods.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2017

A General Distributed Dual Coordinate Optimization Framework for Regularized Loss Minimization

In modern large-scale machine learning applications, the training data are often partitioned and stored on multiple machines. It is customary to employ the "data parallelism" approach, where the aggregated training loss is minimized without moving data across machines. In this paper, we introduce a novel distributed dual formulation for regularized loss minimization problems that can directly handle data parallelism in the distributed setting. This formulation allows us to systematically derive dual coordinate optimization procedures, which we refer to as Distributed Alternating Dual Maximization (DADM). The framework extends earlier studies described in (Boyd et al., 2011; Ma et al., 2015a; Jaggi et al., 2014; Yang, 2013) and has rigorous theoretical analyses. Moreover with the help of the new formulation, we develop the accelerated version of DADM (Acc-DADM) by generalizing the acceleration technique from (Shalev-Shwartz and Zhang, 2014) to the distributed setting. We also provide theoretical results for the proposed accelerated version and the new result improves previous ones (Yang, 2013; Ma et al., 2015a) whose runtimes grow linearly on the condition number. Our empirical studies validate our theory and show that our accelerated approach significantly improves the previous state-of-the-art distributed dual coordinate optimization algorithms.

cs.LG↗