arXiv subjects

Shuqi Gu

Publications and source records attributed to Shuqi Gu.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

AVA-Encoder: Towards Agent-Native Video Representation Learning

Video creative agents still lack an effective way to learn from high-quality human films, limiting their ability to produce cinematic-grade videos. A key challenge is the absence of a structured video representation that is both faithful to film content and directly usable for agentic reasoning and manipulation. To address the challenge, we propose the Agentic Video Auto-Encoder (AVA-Encoder), a novel auto-encoding framework driven by agentic self-evolution to learn agent-native video representations. AVA-Encoder transforms a video into a Film Knowledge Graph (KG) representation and then reconstructs it back into video. This Film KG representation explicitly captures entities, events, assets, and their multimodal relationships in a structured form that can be easily understood, queried, and manipulated by agents. The reconstruction residual drives a dual-loop textual-gradient optimization framework that jointly improves the Film KG representation and the Agentic Video Encoder. Extensive experiments show that AVA-Encoder achieves a 20.7-percentage-point absolute gain, or a 73.1% relative improvement, over the strongest external baseline. In the controlled policy-only setting, its pseudo-trained Agentic Video Encoder policy also outperforms a carefully human-tuned policy while using 74.3% fewer shot-level and 70.1% fewer keyframe-level system-prompt tokens. We release the complete AVA-Encoder framework, a reliable agentic video reconstruction benchmark, and the first dataset of high-quality Film KG representations.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning

Cross-domain multimodal time series forecasting is a challenging task, requiring models to integrate precise numerical comprehension, cross-domain semantic understanding, and effective multimodal fusion. Existing approaches either build Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch or leverage pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs). However, TSFMs often overlook semantic understanding and lack the ability to perform future-oriented semantic reasoning, and LLMs struggle with numerical comprehension and accurate quantitative forecasting. To overcome these limitations, we propose KairosAgent, a novel agentic framework for multimodal time series forecasting, including an LLM-based reasoner and a TSFM-based forecaster. KairosAgent unifies textual reasoning and numerical forecasting by dynamically invoking analytical tools to enhance the numerical understanding and semantic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The reasoning results are subsequently fused into the TSFM pipeline, enabling more accurate and reliable future predictions. To further improve the reasoning, we curate a large-scale corpus of high-quality trajectories, alongside a reinforcement learning from forecasting paradigm with multi-turn refinement and turn-level credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that KairosAgent achieves superior zero-shot forecasting performance while maximizing the utility of pretrained LLMs and TSFMs, presenting a promising direction for efficient and interpretable time series agents. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/KairosAgent .

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

What if Tomorrow is the World Cup Final? Counterfactual Time Series Forecasting with Textual Conditions

Time series forecasting has become increasingly critical in real-world scenarios, where future sequences are influenced not only by historical patterns but also by forthcoming events. In this context, forecasting must dynamically adapt to complex and stochastic future conditions, which introduces fundamental challenges in both forecasting and evaluation. Traditional methods typically rely on historical data or factual future conditions, while overlooking counterfactual scenarios. Furthermore, many existing approaches are restricted to simple structured conditions, limiting their ability to generalize to the real-world complexities. To address these gaps, we introduce the task of counterfactual time series forecasting with textual conditions, enabling more flexible and condition-aware forecasting. We propose a comprehensive evaluation framework that encompasses both factual and counterfactual settings, even in the absence of ground truth time series. Additionally, we present a novel text-attribution mechanism that distinguishes mutable from immutable factors, thereby improving forecast accuracy under sophisticated and stochastic textual conditions. The project page is at https://seqml.github.io/TADiff/

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Exploring the Potential of Probabilistic Transformer for Time Series Modeling: A Report on the ST-PT Framework

The Probabilistic Transformer (PT) establishes that the Transformer's self-attention plus its feed-forward block is mathematically equivalent to Mean-Field Variational Inference (MFVI) on a Conditional Random Field (CRF). Under this equivalence the Transformer ceases to be a black-box neural network and becomes a programmable factor graph: graph topology, factor potentials, and the message-passing schedule are all explicit and inspectable primitives that can be engineered. PT was originally developed for natural language and in this report we investigate its potential for time series. We first lift PT into the Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Transformer (ST-PT) to repair PT's missing channel axis and weak per-step semantics, and adopt ST-PT as a shared cornerstone backbone. We then identify three distinct properties that PT/ST-PT offers as a factor-graph model and derive three Research Questions, one per property, that probe how each property can be exploited in time series: RQ1. The graph topology and potentials are direct programmable primitives. Can this be used to inject symbolic time-series priors into ST-PT through structural graph modifications, especially under data scarcity and noise? RQ2. The CRF's factor matrices are the operator's potentials. Can an external condition program these factor matrices on a per-sample basis, so that conditional generation becomes structural rather than feature-level modulation of a fixed one? RQ3. Each MFVI iteration is a Bayesian posterior update on the factor graph. Can this turn the latent transition of latent-space AutoRegressive (AR) forecasting from an opaque MLP into a principled posterior update, and can a CRF teacher distill its latents into the AR student to counter cumulative error? We give one empirical study per question. Together, these three studies position ST-PT as a programmable framework for time-series modeling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

ConTSG-Bench: A Unified Benchmark for Conditional Time Series Generation

Conditional time series generation plays a critical role in addressing data scarcity and enabling causal analysis in real-world applications. Despite its increasing importance, the field lacks a standardized and systematic benchmarking framework for evaluating generative models across diverse conditions. To address this gap, we introduce the Conditional Time Series Generation Benchmark (ConTSG-Bench). ConTSG-Bench comprises a large-scale, well-aligned dataset spanning diverse conditioning modalities and levels of semantic abstraction, first enabling systematic evaluation of representative generation methods across these dimensions with a comprehensive suite of metrics for generation fidelity and condition adherence. Both the quantitative benchmarking and in-depth analyses of conditional generation behaviors have revealed the traits and limitations of the current approaches, highlighting critical challenges and promising research directions, particularly with respect to precise structural controllability and downstream task utility under complex conditions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Kairos: Toward Adaptive and Parameter-Efficient Time Series Foundation Models

Inherent temporal heterogeneity, such as varying sampling densities and periodic structures, has posed substantial challenges in zero-shot generalization for Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). Existing TSFMs predominantly rely on massive parameterization to absorb such heterogeneity, as their static tokenization and positional encoding schemes entangle diverse temporal patterns into a fixed representation space, encouraging memorization rather than adaptation. To address this limitation, we propose Kairos, a flexible and parameter-efficient TSFM dedicated to forecasting tasks, which decouples temporal heterogeneity from model capacity through a novel tokenization perspective. Kairos introduces a dynamic patching tokenizer and a mixture-of-size encoding that adapt observational granularity to local information density, enabling fine-grained temporal abstraction without increasing model width or depth. In addition, we design a multi-granularity positional embedding based on dynamic rotary encodings, which conditions on instance-level spectral features and temporal structure induced by dynamic patching tokenization, allowing robust modeling of diverse temporal dependencies. Trained on a novel Predictability-Stratified Time-Series (PreSTS) corpus, Kairos achieves superior zero-shot performance with substantially fewer parameters on two mainstream benchmarks, GIFT-Eval and Time-Series-Library. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/Kairos .

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

HACK: Learning a Parametric Head and Neck Model for High-fidelity Animation

Significant advancements have been made in developing parametric models for digital humans, with various approaches concentrating on parts such as the human body, hand, or face. Nevertheless, connectors such as the neck have been overlooked in these models, with rich anatomical priors often unutilized. In this paper, we introduce HACK (Head-And-neCK), a novel parametric model for constructing the head and cervical region of digital humans. Our model seeks to disentangle the full spectrum of neck and larynx motions, facial expressions, and appearance variations, providing personalized and anatomically consistent controls, particularly for the neck regions. To build our HACK model, we acquire a comprehensive multi-modal dataset of the head and neck under various facial expressions. We employ a 3D ultrasound imaging scheme to extract the inner biomechanical structures, namely the precise 3D rotation information of the seven vertebrae of the cervical spine. We then adopt a multi-view photometric approach to capture the geometry and physically-based textures of diverse subjects, who exhibit a diverse range of static expressions as well as sequential head-and-neck movements. Using the multi-modal dataset, we train the parametric HACK model by separating the 3D head and neck depiction into various shape, pose, expression, and larynx blendshapes from the neutral expression and the rest skeletal pose. We adopt an anatomically-consistent skeletal design for the cervical region, and the expression is linked to facial action units for artist-friendly controls. HACK addresses the head and neck as a unified entity, offering more accurate and expressive controls, with a new level of realism, particularly for the neck regions. This approach has significant benefits for numerous applications and enables inter-correlation analysis between head and neck for fine-grained motion synthesis and transfer.

cs.GR↗