arXiv subjects

Shurui Cao

Publications and source records attributed to Shurui Cao.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Can Online GenAI Discussion Serve as Bellwether for Labor Market Shifts?

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has generated considerable speculation regarding their transformative potential for labor markets. However, existing approaches to measuring AI exposure in the workforce predominantly rely on concurrent market conditions, offering limited predictive capacity for anticipating future disruptions. This paper presents a predictive study examining whether online discussions about LLMs can function as early indicators of labor market shifts. We employ four distinct analytical approaches to identify the domains and timeframes in which public discourse serves as a leading signal for employment changes, thereby demonstrating its predictive validity for labor market dynamics. Drawing on a comprehensive dataset that integrates the REALM corpus of LLM discussions, LinkedIn job postings, Indeed employment indices, and over 4 million LinkedIn user profiles, we analyze the relationship between discussion intensity across news media and Reddit forums and subsequent variations in job posting volumes, occupational net change ratios, job tenure patterns, unemployment duration, and transitions to GenAI-related roles across thirteen occupational categories. Our findings reveal that discussion intensity predicts employment changes 1-7 months in advance across multiple indicators, including job postings, net hiring rates, tenure patterns, and unemployment duration. These findings suggest that monitoring online discourse can provide actionable intelligence for workers making reskilling decisions and organizations anticipating skill requirements, offering a real-time complement to traditional labor statistics in navigating technological disruption.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

CoBAD: Modeling Collective Behaviors for Human Mobility Anomaly Detection

Detecting anomalies in human mobility is essential for applications such as public safety and urban planning. While traditional anomaly detection methods primarily focus on individual movement patterns (e.g., a child should stay at home at night), collective anomaly detection aims to identify irregularities in collective mobility behaviors across individuals (e.g., a child is at home alone while the parents are elsewhere) and remains an underexplored challenge. Unlike individual anomalies, collective anomalies require modeling spatiotemporal dependencies between individuals, introducing additional complexity. To address this gap, we propose CoBAD, a novel model designed to capture Collective Behaviors for human mobility Anomaly Detection. We first formulate the problem as unsupervised learning over Collective Event Sequences (CES) with a co-occurrence event graph, where CES represents the event sequences of related individuals. CoBAD then employs a two-stage attention mechanism to model both the individual mobility patterns and the interactions across multiple individuals. Pre-trained on large-scale collective behavior data through masked event and link reconstruction tasks, CoBAD is able to detect two types of collective anomalies: unexpected co-occurrence anomalies and absence anomalies, the latter of which has been largely overlooked in prior work. Extensive experiments on large-scale mobility datasets demonstrate that CoBAD significantly outperforms existing anomaly detection baselines, achieving an improvement of 13%-18% in AUCROC and 19%-70% in AUCPR. All source code is available at https://github.com/wenhaomin/CoBAD.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Uncertainty-aware Human Mobility Modeling and Anomaly Detection

Given the temporal GPS coordinates from a large set of human agents, how can we model their mobility behavior toward effective anomaly (e.g. bad-actor or malicious behavior) detection without any labeled data? Human mobility and trajectory modeling have been extensively studied, showcasing varying abilities to manage complex inputs and balance performance-efficiency trade-offs. In this work, we formulate anomaly detection in complex human behavior by modeling raw GPS data as a sequence of stay-point events, each characterized by spatio-temporal features, along with trips (i.e. commute) between the stay-points. Our problem formulation allows us to leverage modern sequence models for unsupervised training and anomaly detection. Notably, we equip our proposed model USTAD (for Uncertainty-aware Spatio-Temporal Anomaly Detection) with aleatoric (i.e. data) uncertainty estimation to account for inherent stochasticity in certain individuals' behavior, as well as epistemic (i.e. model) uncertainty to handle data sparsity under a large variety of human behaviors. Together, aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties unlock a robust loss function as well as uncertainty-aware decision-making in anomaly scoring. Extensive experiments shows that USTAD improves anomaly detection AUCROC by 3\%-15\% over baselines in industry-scale data.

cs.AI↗