arXiv subjects

Shy Genel

Publications and source records attributed to Shy Genel.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

The effect of intrinsic alignments on weak lensing statistics in hydrodynamical simulations

The next generation of weak gravitational lensing surveys has the potential to place stringent constraints on cosmological parameters. However, their analysis is limited by systematics such as the intrinsic alignments of galaxies, which alter weak lensing convergence and can lead to biases in cosmological parameter estimations. In this work, we investigate the impact of intrinsic alignments on non-Gaussian statistics of the weak lensing field using galaxy shapes derived from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulation. We create two catalogs of ray-traced convergence maps: one that includes the measured intrinsic shape of each galaxy and another where all galaxies are randomly rotated to eliminate intrinsic alignments. We compare an exhaustive list of weak lensing statistics between the two catalogs, including the shear-shear correlation function, the map-level angular power spectrum, one-point, peak count, minimum distribution functions, and Minkowski functionals. For each statistic, we assess the level of statistical distinguishability between catalogs for a set of future survey angular areas. Our results reveal strong small-scale correlation in the alignment of galaxies and statistically significant boosts in weak lensing convergence in both positive and negative directions for high-significance peaks and minimums, respectively. Weak lensing analyses utilizing non-Gaussian statistics must account for intrinsic alignments to avoid significantly compromised cosmological inferences.

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arXiv2025

Towards Robustness Across Cosmological Simulation Models TNG, SIMBA, ASTRID, and EAGLE

The rapid advancement of large-scale cosmological simulations has opened new avenues for cosmological and astrophysical research. However, the increasing diversity among cosmological simulation models presents a challenge to the robustness. In this work, we develop the Model-Insensitive ESTimator (MIEST), a machine that can robustly estimate the cosmological parameters, $Ω_m$ and $σ_8$, from neural hydrogen maps of simulation models in the CAMELS project$-$TNG, SIMBA, ASTRID, and EAGLE. An estimator is considered robust if it possesses a consistent predictive power across all simulations, including those used during the training phase. We train our machine using multiple simulation models and ensure that it only extracts common features between the models while disregarding the model-specific features. This allows us to develop a novel model that is capable of accurately estimating parameters across a range of simulation models, without being biased towards any particular model. Upon the investigation of the latent space$-$a set of summary statistics, we find that the implementation of robustness leads to the blending of latent variables across different models, demonstrating the removal of model-specific features. In comparison to a standard machine lacking robustness, the average performance of MIEST on the unseen simulations during the training phase has been improved by $\sim17$% for $Ω_m$ and $\sim 38$% for $σ_8$. By using a machine learning approach that can extract robust, yet physical features, we hope to improve our understanding of galaxy formation and evolution in a (subgrid) model-insensitive manner, and ultimately, gain insight into the underlying physical processes responsible for robustness. This is a Learning the Universe publication.

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arXiv2025

X-raying CAMELS: Constraining Baryonic Feedback in the Circum-Galactic Medium with the CAMELS simulations and eRASS X-ray Observations

The circumgalactic medium (CGM) around massive galaxies plays a crucial role in regulating star formation and feedback. Using the CAMELS simulation suite, we develop emulators for the X-ray surface brightness profile and the X-ray luminosity--stellar mass scaling relation to investigate how stellar and AGN feedback shape the X-ray properties of the hot CGM. Our analysis shows that at CGM scales ($10^{12} \lesssim M_{\rm halo}/M_\odot \lesssim 10^{13}$, $10\lesssim r/{\rm kpc} \lesssim 400$), stellar feedback more significantly impacts the X-ray properties than AGN feedback within the parameters studied. Comparing the emulators to recent eROSITA All-Sky Survey observations, it was found that stronger feedback than currently implemented in the IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, and Astrid simulations is required to match observed CGM properties. However, adopting these enhanced feedback parameters causes deviations in the stellar-mass-halo-mass relations from observational constraints below the group mass scale. This tension suggests possible unaccounted systematics in X-ray CGM observations or inadequacies in the feedback models of cosmological simulations.

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arXiv2025

The relationship between galaxy size and halo properties: Insights from the IllustrisTNG simulations and differential clustering

The physical origin of the radial sizes of galaxies and how galaxy sizes are correlated with the properties of their host dark matter halos is an open question in galaxy formation. In observations, the large-scale clustering of galaxies selected by stellar mass is significantly different for large and small galaxies, and Behroozi et al. (2022) showed that these results are in tension with some of the correlations between galaxy size and halo properties in the literature. We analyze the IllustrisTNG suite of large volume cosmological hydrodynamic simulations along with dark matter only simulations with matched initial conditions. We investigate correlations between the ratio of galaxy size to halo virial radius ($r_{\rm gal}/R_{\rm vir}$) and halo spin, concentration, and formation time at redshift 0-3. We find a significant correlation between $r_{\rm gal}/R_{\rm vir}$ and concentration, but only above a critical value $c \simeq 16$, and we also find a correlation between $r_{\rm gal}/R_{\rm vir}$ and halo formation time. We suggest that galaxy formation history and environment, in addition to halo properties at a given output time, play an important role in shaping galaxy size. In addition, we directly measure size-based differential clustering in the TNG300 simulation and compare directly with the observational results. We find significant scale-dependent size-based differential clustering in TNG, in qualitative agreement with observations. However, correlations between $r_{\rm gal}/R_{\rm vir}$ and secondary halo properties are not the drivers of the differential clustering in the simulations; instead, we find that most of this signal in TNG arises from satellite galaxies.

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arXiv2025

Quantifying Baryonic Feedback on Warm-Hot Circumgalactic Medium in CAMELS Simulations

The baryonic physics shaping galaxy formation and evolution are complex, spanning a vast range of scales and making them challenging to model. Cosmological simulations rely on subgrid models that produce significantly different predictions. Understanding how models of stellar and active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback affect baryon behavior across different halo masses and redshifts is essential. Using the SIMBA and IllustrisTNG suites from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project, we explore the effect of parameters governing the subgrid implementation of stellar and AGN feedback. We find that while IllustrisTNG shows higher cumulative feedback energy across all halos, SIMBA demonstrates a greater spread of baryons, quantified by the closure radius and circumgalactic medium (CGM) gas fraction. This suggests that feedback in SIMBA couples more effectively to baryons and drives them more efficiently within the host halo. There is evidence that different feedback modes are highly interrelated in these subgrid models. Parameters controlling stellar feedback efficiency significantly impact AGN feedback, as seen in the suppression of black hole mass growth and delayed activation of AGN feedback to higher mass halos with increasing stellar feedback efficiency in both simulations. Additionally, AGN feedback efficiency parameters affect the CGM gas fraction at low halo masses in SIMBA, hinting at complex, non-linear interactions between AGN and SNe feedback modes. Overall, we demonstrate that stellar and AGN feedback are intimately interwoven, especially at low redshift, due to subgrid implementation, resulting in halo property effects that might initially seem counterintuitive.

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arXiv2024

On the Significance of Covariance for Constraining Theoretical Models From Galaxy Observables

In this study, we investigate the impact of covariance within uncertainties on the inference of cosmological and astrophysical parameters, specifically focusing on galaxy stellar mass functions derived from the CAMELS simulation suite. Utilizing both Fisher analysis and Implicit Likelihood Inference (ILI), we explore how different covariance structures, including simple toy models and physics-motivated uncertainties, affect posterior distributions and parameter variances. Our methodology utilizes forward modeling via emulators that are trained on CAMELS simulations to produce stellar mass functions based on input parameters, subsequently incorporating Gaussian noise as defined by covariance matrices. We examine both toy model covariance matrices and physically motivated covariance matrices derived from observational factors like the stellar Initial Mass Function (IMF) and photometric aperture size. Our results demonstrate that covariance terms significantly influence parameter inference, often leading to tighter constraints or revealing complex, multimodal posterior distributions. These findings underscore the necessity of accounting for covariance when interpreting astrophysical observations, especially in fields where accurate parameter estimation is critical for model validation and hypothesis testing.

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arXiv2024

Cosmological and Astrophysical Parameter Inference from Stacked Galaxy Cluster Profiles Using CAMELS-zoomGZ

We present a study on the inference of cosmological and astrophysical parameters using stacked galaxy cluster profiles. Utilizing the CAMELS-zoomGZ simulations, we explore how various cluster properties--such as X-ray surface brightness, gas density, temperature, metallicity, and Compton-y profiles--can be used to predict parameters within the 28-dimensional parameter space of the IllustrisTNG model. Through neural networks, we achieve a high correlation coefficient of 0.97 or above for all cosmological parameters, including $Ω_{\rm m}$, $H_0$, and $σ_8$, and over 0.90 for the remaining astrophysical parameters, showcasing the effectiveness of these profiles for parameter inference. We investigate the impact of different radial cuts, with bins ranging from $0.1R_{200c}$ to $0.7R_{200c}$, to simulate current observational constraints. Additionally, we perform a noise sensitivity analysis, adding up to 40\% Gaussian noise (corresponding to signal-to-noise ratios as low as 2.5), revealing that key parameters such as $Ω_{\rm m}$, $H_0$, and the IMF slope remain robust even under extreme noise conditions. We also compare the performance of full radial profiles against integrated quantities, finding that profiles generally lead to more accurate parameter inferences. Our results demonstrate that stacked galaxy cluster profiles contain crucial information on both astrophysical processes within groups and clusters and the underlying cosmology of the universe. This underscores their significance for interpreting the complex data expected from next-generation surveys and reveals, for the first time, their potential as a powerful tool for parameter inference.

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arXiv2024

Towards Implementation of the Pressure-Regulated, Feedback-Modulated Model of Star Formation in Cosmological Simulations: Methods and Application to TNG

Traditional star formation subgrid models implemented in cosmological galaxy formation simulations, such as that of Springel & Hernquist (2003, hereafter SH03), employ adjustable parameters to satisfy constraints measured in the local Universe. In recent years, however, theory and spatially-resolved simulations of the turbulent, multiphase, star-forming ISM have begun to produce new first-principles models, which when fully developed can replace traditional subgrid prescriptions. This approach has advantages of being physically motivated and predictive rather than empirically tuned, and allowing for varying environmental conditions rather than being tied to local Universe conditions. As a prototype of this new approach, by combining calibrations from the TIGRESS numerical framework with the Pressure-Regulated Feedback-Modulated (PRFM) theory, simple formulae can be obtained for both the gas depletion time and an effective equation of state. Considering galaxies in TNG50, we compare the "native" simulation outputs with post-processed predictions from PRFM. At TNG50 resolution, the total midplane pressure is nearly equal to the total ISM weight, indicating that galaxies in TNG50 are close to satisfying vertical equilibrium. The measured gas scale height is also close to theoretical equilibrium predictions. The slopes of the effective equations of states are similar, but with effective velocity dispersion normalization from SH03 slightly larger than that from current TIGRESS simulations. Because of this and the decrease in PRFM feedback yield at high pressure, the PRFM model predicts shorter gas depletion times than the SH03 model at high densities and redshift. Our results represent a first step towards implementing new, numerically calibrated subgrid algorithms in cosmological galaxy formation simulations.

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arXiv2024

Supermassive black hole feedback quenches disc galaxies and suppresses bar formation in TNG50

We use the cosmological magneto-hydrodynamical simulation TNG50 to study the relationship between black hole feedback, the presence of stellar bars, and star formation quenching in Milky Way-like disc galaxies. Of our sample of 198 discs, about 63 per cent develop stellar bars that last until z=0. After the formation of their bars, the majority of these galaxies develop persistent 3-15 kpc wide holes in the centres of their gas discs. Tracking their evolution from z=4 to 0, we demonstrate that barred galaxies tend to form within dark matter haloes that become centrally disc dominated early on (and are thus unstable to bar formation) whereas unbarred galaxies do not; barred galaxies also host central black holes that grow more rapidly than those of unbarred galaxies. As a result, most barred galaxies eventually experience kinetic wind feedback that operates when the mass of the central supermassive black hole exceeds $M_{BH} > 10^8 M_{\odot}$. This feedback ejects gas from the central disc into the circumgalactic medium and rapidly quenches barred galaxies of their central star formation. If kinetic black hole feedback occurs in an unbarred disc it suppresses subsequent star formation and inhibits its growth, stabilising the disc against future bar formation. Consequently, most barred galaxies develop black hole-driven gas holes, though a gas hole alone does not guarantee the presence of a stellar bar. This subtle relationship between black hole feedback, cold gas disc morphology, and stellar bars may provide constraints on subgrid physics models for supermassive black hole feedback.

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arXiv2024

Sunyaev-Zeldovich Signals from $L^*$ Galaxies: Observations, Analytics, and Simulations

We analyze measurements of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect arising in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of $L^*$ galaxies, reported by Bregman et al. 2022 and Das et al. 2023. In our analysis we use the Faerman et al. 2017 and Faerman et al. 2020 CGM models, a new power-law model (PLM), and the TNG100 simulation. For a given $M_{\rm vir}$, our PLM has four parameters; the fraction, $f_{\rm hCGM}$, of the halo baryon mass in hot CGM gas, the ratio, $ϕ_T$, of the actual gas temperature at the virial radius to the virial temperature, and the power-law indicies, $a_{P,{\rm th}}$ and $a_n$ for the thermal electron pressure and the hydrogen nucleon density. The B+22 Compton-$y$ profile implies steep electron pressure slopes ($a_{P,{\rm th}}\simeq 2$). For isothermal conditions the temperature is at least $1.1\times 10^6$ K, with a hot CGM gas mass of up to $3.5\times 10^{11}$ M$_\odot$ for a virial mass of $2.75\times 10^{12}$ M$_\odot$. However, if isothermal the gas must be expanding out of the halos. An isentropic equation of state is favored for which hydrostatic equilibrium is possible. The B+22 and D+23 results are consistent with each other and with recent (0.5-2 keV) CGM X-ray observations by Zhang et al. 2024 of Milky Way mass systems. For $M_{\rm vir}\simeq 3\times 10^{12}$ M$_\odot$, the scaled Compton pressure integrals, $E(z)^{-2/3}Y_{500}/M_{\rm vir,12}^{5/3}$, lie in the narrow range, $2.5\times 10^{-4}$ to $5.0\times 10^{-4}$ kpc$^2$, for all three sets of observations. TNG100 underpredicts the tSZ parameters by factors $\sim 0.5$ dex for the $L^*$ galaxies, suggesting that the feedback strengths and CGM gas losses are overestimated in the simulated halos at these mass scales.

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arXiv2024

The baryon cycle in modern cosmological hydrodynamical simulations

In recent years, cosmological hydrodynamical simulations have proven their utility as key interpretative tools in the study of galaxy formation and evolution. In this work, we present a like-for-like comparison between the baryon cycle in three publicly available, leading cosmological simulation suites: EAGLE, IllustrisTNG, and SIMBA. While these simulations broadly agree in terms of their predictions for the stellar mass content and star formation rates of galaxies at $z\approx0$, they achieve this result for markedly different reasons. In EAGLE and SIMBA, we demonstrate that at low halo masses ($M_{\rm 200c}\lesssim 10^{11.5}\, M_{\odot}$), stellar feedback (SF)-driven outflows can reach far beyond the scale of the halo, extending up to $2-3\times R_{\rm 200c}$. In contrast, in TNG, SF-driven outflows, while stronger at the scale of the ISM, recycle within the CGM (within $R_{\rm 200c}$). We find that AGN-driven outflows in SIMBA are notably potent, reaching several times $R_{\rm 200c}$ even at halo masses up to $M_{\rm 200c}\approx10^{13.5}\, M_{\odot}$. In both TNG and EAGLE, AGN feedback can eject gas beyond $R_{\rm 200c}$ at this mass scale, but seldom beyond $2-3\times R_{\rm 200c}$. We find that the scale of feedback-driven outflows can be directly linked with the prevention of cosmological inflow, as well as the total baryon fraction of haloes within $R_{\rm 200c}$. This work lays the foundation to develop targeted observational tests that can discriminate between feedback scenarios, and inform sub-grid feedback models in the next generation of simulations.

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arXiv2024

Introducing the DREAMS Project: DaRk mattEr and Astrophysics with Machine learning and Simulations

We introduce the DREAMS project, an innovative approach to understanding the astrophysical implications of alternative dark matter models and their effects on galaxy formation and evolution. The DREAMS project will ultimately comprise thousands of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations that simultaneously vary over dark matter physics, astrophysics, and cosmology in modeling a range of systems -- from galaxy clusters to ultra-faint satellites. Such extensive simulation suites can provide adequate training sets for machine-learning-based analyses. This paper introduces two new cosmological hydrodynamical suites of Warm Dark Matter, each comprised of 1024 simulations generated using the Arepo code. One suite consists of uniform-box simulations covering a $(25~h^{-1}~{\rm M}_\odot)^3$ volume, while the other consists of Milky Way zoom-ins with sufficient resolution to capture the properties of classical satellites. For each simulation, the Warm Dark Matter particle mass is varied along with the initial density field and several parameters controlling the strength of baryonic feedback within the IllustrisTNG model. We provide two examples, separately utilizing emulators and Convolutional Neural Networks, to demonstrate how such simulation suites can be used to disentangle the effects of dark matter and baryonic physics on galactic properties. The DREAMS project can be extended further to include different dark matter models, galaxy formation physics, and astrophysical targets. In this way, it will provide an unparalleled opportunity to characterize uncertainties on predictions for small-scale observables, leading to robust predictions for testing the particle physics nature of dark matter on these scales.

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arXiv2024

Observational predictions for the survival of atomic hydrogen in simulated Fornax-like galaxy clusters

The presence of dense, neutral hydrogen clouds in the hot, diffuse intra-group and intra-cluster medium is an important clue to the physical processes controlling the survival of cold gas and sheds light on cosmological baryon flows in massive halos. Advances in numerical modeling and observational surveys means that theory and observational comparisons are now possible. In this paper, we use the high-resolution TNG50 cosmological simulation to study the HI distribution in seven halos with masses similar to the Fornax galaxy cluster. Adopting observational sensitivities similar to the MeerKAT Fornax Survey (MFS), an ongoing HI survey that will probe to column densities of $10^{18}$ cm$^{-2}$, we find that Fornax-like TNG50 halos have an extended distribution of neutral hydrogen clouds. Within one virial radius, we predict the MFS will observe a total HI covering fraction around $\sim$ 12\% (mean value) for 10 kpc pixels and 6\% for 2 kpc pixels. If we restrict this to gas more than 10 half-mass radii from galaxies, the mean values only decrease mildly, to 10\% (4\%) for 10 (2) kpc pixels (albeit with significant halo-to-halo spread). Although there are large amounts of HI outside of galaxies, the gas seems to be associated with satellites, judging both by the visual inspection of projections and by comparison of the line of sight velocities of galaxies and intracluster HI.

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arXiv2024

Zooming by in the CARPoolGP lane: new CAMELS-TNG simulations of zoomed-in massive halos

Galaxy formation models within cosmological hydrodynamical simulations contain numerous parameters with non-trivial influences over the resulting properties of simulated cosmic structures and galaxy populations. It is computationally challenging to sample these high dimensional parameter spaces with simulations, particularly for halos in the high-mass end of the mass function. In this work, we develop a novel sampling and reduced variance regression method, CARPoolGP, which leverages built-in correlations between samples in different locations of high dimensional parameter spaces to provide an efficient way to explore parameter space and generate low variance emulations of summary statistics. We use this method to extend the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) to include a set of 768 zoom-in simulations of halos in the mass range of $10^{13} - 10^{14.5} M_\odot\,h^{-1}$ that span a 28-dimensional parameter space in the IllustrisTNG model. With these simulations and the CARPoolGP emulation method, we explore parameter trends in the Compton $Y-M$, black hole mass-halo mass, and metallicity-mass relations, as well as thermodynamic profiles and quenched fractions of satellite galaxies. We use these emulations to provide a physical picture of the complex interplay between supernova and active galactic nuclei feedback. We then use emulations of the $Y-M$ relation of massive halos to perform Fisher forecasts on astrophysical parameters for future Sunyaev-Zeldovich observations and find a significant improvement in forecasted constraints. We publicly release both the simulation suite and CARPoolGP software package.

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arXiv2023

Leaving No Branches Behind: Predicting Baryonic Properties of Galaxies from Merger Trees

Galaxies play a key role in our endeavor to understand how structure formation proceeds in the Universe. For any precision study of cosmology or galaxy formation, there is a strong demand for huge sets of realistic mock galaxy catalogs, spanning cosmologically significant volumes. For such a daunting task, methods that can produce a direct mapping between dark matter halos from dark matter-only simulations and galaxies are strongly preferred, as producing mocks from full-fledged hydrodynamical simulations or semi-analytical models is too expensive. Here we present a Graph Neural Network-based model that is able to accurately predict key properties of galaxies such as stellar mass, $g-r$ color, star formation rate, gas mass, stellar metallicity, and gas metallicity, purely from dark matter properties extracted from halos along the full assembly history of the galaxies. Tests based on the TNG300 simulation of the IllustrisTNG project show that our model can recover the baryonic properties of galaxies to high accuracy, over a wide redshift range ($z = 0-5$), for all galaxies with stellar masses more massive than $10^9\,M_\odot$ and their progenitors, with strong improvements over the state-of-the-art methods. We further show that our method makes substantial strides toward providing an understanding of the implications of the IllustrisTNG galaxy formation model.

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arXiv2023

Why do semi-analytic models predict higher scatter in the stellar mass-halo mass relation than cosmological hydrodynamic simulations?

Semi-analytic models (SAMs) systematically predict higher stellar-mass scatter at a given halo mass than hydrodynamical simulations and most empirical models. Our goal is to investigate the physical origin of this scatter by exploring modifications to the physics in the SAM Dark Sage. We design two black hole formation models that approximate results from the IllustrisTNG 300-1 hydrodynamical simulation. In the first model, we assign a fixed black hole mass of $10^{6}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ to every halo that reaches $10^{10.5}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$. In the second model, we disregard any black hole growth as implemented in the standard Dark Sage model. Instead, we force all black hole masses to follow the median black hole mass-halo mass relation in IllustrisTNG 300-1 with a fixed scatter. We find that each model on its own does not significantly reduce the scatter in stellar mass. To do this, we replace the native Dark Sage AGN feedback model with a simple model where we turn off cooling for galaxies with black hole masses above $10^{8}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$. With this additional modification, the SMBH seeding and fixed conditional distribution models find a significant reduction in the scatter in stellar mass at halo masses between $10^{11-14}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$. These results suggest that AGN feedback in SAMs acts in a qualitatively different way than feedback implemented in cosmological simulations. Either or both may require substantial modification to match the empirically inferred scatter in the Stellar Mass Halo Mass Relation (SMHMR).

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arXiv2023

Predicting the impact of feedback on matter clustering with machine learning in CAMELS

Extracting information from the total matter power spectrum with the precision needed for upcoming cosmological surveys requires unraveling the complex effects of galaxy formation processes on the distribution of matter. We investigate the impact of baryonic physics on matter clustering at $z=0$ using a library of power spectra from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project, containing thousands of $(25\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc})^3$ volume realizations with varying cosmology, initial random field, stellar and AGN feedback strength and sub-grid model implementation methods. We show that baryonic physics affects matter clustering on scales $k \gtrsim 0.4\,h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ and the magnitude of this effect is dependent on the details of the galaxy formation implementation and variations of cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Increasing AGN feedback strength decreases halo baryon fractions and yields stronger suppression of power relative to N-body simulations, while stronger stellar feedback often results in weaker effects by suppressing black hole growth and therefore the impact of AGN feedback. We find a broad correlation between mean baryon fraction of massive halos ($M_{\rm 200c} > 10^{13.5}$\,\Msun) and suppression of matter clustering but with significant scatter compared to previous work owing to wider exploration of feedback parameters and cosmic variance effects. We show that a random forest regressor trained on the baryon content and abundance of halos across the full mass range $10^{10} \leq M_\mathrm{halo}/$\Msun$< 10^{15}$ can predict the effect of galaxy formation on the matter power spectrum on scales $k = 1.0$--20.0\,$h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$.

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arXiv2023

Cosmological baryon spread and impact on matter clustering in CAMELS

We quantify the cosmological spread of baryons relative to their initial neighboring dark matter distribution using thousands of state-of-the-art simulations from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project. We show that dark matter particles spread relative to their initial neighboring distribution owing to chaotic gravitational dynamics on spatial scales comparable to their host dark matter halo. In contrast, gas in hydrodynamic simulations spreads much further from the initial neighboring dark matter owing to feedback from supernovae (SNe) and Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). We show that large-scale baryon spread is very sensitive to model implementation details, with the fiducial \textsc{SIMBA} model spreading $\sim$40\% of baryons $>$1\,Mpc away compared to $\sim$10\% for the IllustrisTNG and \textsc{ASTRID} models. Increasing the efficiency of AGN-driven outflows greatly increases baryon spread while increasing the strength of SNe-driven winds can decrease spreading due to non-linear coupling of stellar and AGN feedback. We compare total matter power spectra between hydrodynamic and paired $N$-body simulations and demonstrate that the baryonic spread metric broadly captures the global impact of feedback on matter clustering over variations of cosmological and astrophysical parameters, initial conditions, and galaxy formation models. Using symbolic regression, we find a function that reproduces the suppression of power by feedback as a function of wave number ($k$) and baryonic spread up to $k \sim 10\,h$\,Mpc$^{-1}$ while highlighting the challenge of developing models robust to variations in galaxy formation physics implementation.

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