arXiv subjects

Sidi Chang

Publications and source records attributed to Sidi Chang.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

ClaimReceipt: Verifying Evidence Sufficiency and Coverage in Agent Evaluations

Agent evaluations face two distinct evidentiary questions: whether a reported claim is recomputable from retained evidence (sufficiency), and whether the retained records cover the committed experiment set (coverage). Generic logs and hash-linked transcripts answer neither reliably. We introduce ClaimReceipt, a claim-relative receipt specification and selective verifier that binds typed transaction evidence to a signed experiment manifest and returns PASS, INVALID, or INCONCLUSIVE per claim. We freeze the specification before implementation (SHA-256 18d109...b81). On 1,392 historical buyer--seller records, a CR-2 verifier reproduces all five manually labeled audit verdicts, exactly replays 600 deterministic and 792 post-generation records, makes every one of 13 declared field groups non-redundant under tested ablations, and returns the expected result on 11/11 semantic faults with 0/8 false positives. We then run a separate prospective CR-3 epoch: 30 assignments are committed before inference, terminal receipts are signed and chained, and private evidence is encrypted for an auditor. Complete evidence yields coverage and accounting PASS; withholding one terminal receipt returns INCONCLUSIVE_COVERAGE, while withholding all private openings preserves coverage and protocol verification but makes economic claims inconclusive, exactly matching a preregistered prediction. Receipt instrumentation adds 0.021% of model-inference time and 9.9 KB per transaction. A specification-legibility probe indicates that our own frozen specification is not yet unambiguous to an independent reader. Claim verification therefore requires both claim-sufficient evidence and a committed universe against which omissions become visible.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

When Guardrails Look Effective: Construct Validity Failures in LLM Agent Commerce Evaluation

Interactive simulations increasingly evaluate policies in markets populated by language-model agents. Their outputs can look economic---prices, profits, consumer surplus, and welfare---without instantiating the behavior named in the claim. We audit this risk in a multi-turn buyer--seller testbed for configurable hotel transactions. An initial implementation reported welfare gains from two marketplace guardrails of +87.4, +35.0, and +28.8 across a Qwen2.5 1.5B--14B ladder. It also gave guarded and unguarded agents different offer schemas and choice procedures. Holding the schema and buyer chooser fixed changes the paired contrasts to +7.2, -13.9, and +23.8. The four largest 14B single-generation effects averaged +229; after three generations per profile-condition, they averaged +37.6 (95% bootstrap interval [-34.2, 109.3]), while generation residuals account for 49.9% of variation in this post-hoc probe. A seller-incentive check is non-monotone: increasing profit pressure produces less profit than the default seller prompt. Scripted positive controls show why this matters. A profit-maximizing seller already attains first-best welfare, so guardrails mostly redistribute and reduce welfare; they create welfare only when the seller is explicitly programmed to force inefficient bundles. We contribute a construct-validity contract separating incentive validity, protocol isolation, stochastic stability, and welfare accounting, and returning INVALID or INCONCLUSIVE before substantive policy claims. In our case, the original estimate is INVALID under protocol isolation, while the controlled study remains INCONCLUSIVE under incentive validity and stochastic stability. The case does not show that guardrails are ineffective; it shows their apparent value is unidentified until the simulated agents and protocol pass these checks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

When Aggregate Alignment Misleads: Auditing Policy Repair Without Per-State Expert Actions

Agentic AI systems are increasingly used to edit, refine, and repair decision policies, but evaluating these edits is difficult when per-state expert action labels are unavailable. We study this problem in a hotel-pricing simulator where an agentic policy editor receives only region-level diagnostic feedback: summaries of how its price distribution differs from a benchmark policy across time, inventory, and market regions. The editor cannot observe benchmark actions, benchmark source code, reward numbers, or held-out outcomes, and may only propose constrained edits to a target-action table. On 5,000 held-out episodes, a multi-restart LLM editor reaches RevPAR 108.47 (95% CI 107.61 - 109.34), close to the benchmark policy's 108.75 (107.81 - 109.68), with paired gap (LLM minus benchmark) -0.276 and 95% CI [-0.692, 0.146]. A cheap diagnostic projection already recovers much of the revenue (107.90), so the LLM editor's distinctive gain is not raw revenue lift alone: it also reduces episode composition distance from 1.153 to 0.609. This is the strongest non-benchmark repair result. This profile is not explained by restart search alone: non-semantic proposers with up to 2,500 evaluations fall 8.77 - 14.57 RevPAR points short. Nor is it explained by plausible prompt format: a shuffled-diagnostic control breaks region-error correspondence and falls to RevPAR 94.30. The match is genuine but partial. A tree editor achieves stronger pooled alignment, 0.214 versus 0.266, and stronger reference-state D1, 0.328 versus 1.197, yet revenue falls to 98.91. These results show that agentic policy repair should be evaluated by whether diagnostic feedback becomes reliable closed-loop outcome, not by a single behavioral distance.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

When Outcome Looks Right But Discipline Fails: Trace-Based Evaluation Under Hidden Competitor State

Outcome-only evaluation can certify economically unsafe agents: a policy can hit a business KPI while violating deployable behavioral discipline. In hotel pricing with hidden competitor state, a learner can achieve plausible revenue per available room while failing to preserve the rate discipline of a rule-based revenue-management competitor. We introduce discipline stability, a trace-based evaluation paradigm: define the benchmark behavior, restrict observations to the deployment regime, induce trace diagnostics from failure, separate mechanisms with ablations, and test transfer and deployment. Across a two-hotel benchmark and a compact hidden-budget bidding task, reward-only PPO variants miss trace alignment; revealing hidden state reduces label uncertainty; deterministic copy collapses uncertainty; and trace-prior or corrected history policies better preserve price or bid distributions. Pure behavior cloning is nearly enough for symmetric imitation, while Trace-Prior RL adds bounded adaptation under capacity asymmetry. The contribution is an evaluation and benchmark paradigm, not a new optimizer or a universal claim about MARL

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Market-Alignment Risk in Pricing Agents: Trace Diagnostics and Trace-Prior RL under Hidden Competitor State

Outcome metrics can certify the wrong behavior. We study this failure in a two-hotel revenue-management simulator where Hotel A trains an agent against a fixed rule-based revenue-management competitor, Hotel B. A standard learning agent can obtain near-reference revenue per available room (RevPAR) while failing to learn market-like yield management: it sells too aggressively, undercuts, or collapses to modal price buckets. We diagnose this as a Goodhart-style failure under partial observability. Hotel A cannot observe the competitor's remaining inventory, booking curve, or pricing rule, so the same Hotel A-visible state maps to multiple plausible Hotel B prices. Deterministic value-based RL and deterministic copying collapse this unresolved uncertainty into shortcut behavior. We introduce a trace-level diagnostic protocol using RevPAR, occupancy, ADR, full price-bucket distributions, L1/JS distances, and seed-level confidence intervals. The verified repair is Trace-Prior RL: learn a distributional market prior from lagged market traces, then train a stochastic pricing policy with a RevPAR reward and a KL penalty to the learned prior. The final policy matches Hotel B's RevPAR, occupancy, ADR, and price distribution within seed-level uncertainty, while still optimizing Hotel A's own reward. We argue that the contribution is not a new optimizer and not a hotel-pricing leaderboard, but a reproducible failure-and-repair recipe for agentic systems where scalar rewards are easy to game and the intended behavior is only visible in traces. A key finding is that higher exact action accuracy can worsen aggregate trace alignment when the target is distributional.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Measurement Risk in Supervised Financial NLP: Rubric and Metric Sensitivity on JF-ICR

As LLMs become credible readers of earnings calls, investor-relations Q\&A, guidance, and disclosure language, supervised financial NLP benchmarks increasingly function as decision evidence for model selection and deployment. A hidden assumption is that gold labels make such evidence objective. This assumption breaks down when the benchmark ruler itself is sensitive to rubric wording, metric choice, or aggregation policy. We study this measurement risk on Japanese Financial Implicit-Commitment Recognition (JF-ICR; a pinned 253-item test split x 4 frontier LLMs x 5 rubrics x 3 temperatures x 5 ordinal metrics). Three findings follow. First, rubric wording materially changes model-assigned labels: R2--R3 agreement ranges from 70.0% to 83.4%, with the dominant movement near the +1 / 0 implicit-commitment boundary. This pattern is consistent with a pragmatic-boundary interpretation, but is not a validated linguistic-causality claim because the present rubric variants confound semantics, examples, and verbosity. Second, not every metric remains informative under the JF-ICR class distribution. Within-one accuracy is too easy because near misses receive credit and the majority class dominates; worst-class accuracy is too noisy because the rarest class has only two examples. Exact accuracy, macro-F1, and weighted \k{appa} are therefore the identifiable metrics under our operational rule. Third, ranking claims become more defensible only after this metric-identifiability audit: Bradley--Terry, Borda, and Ranked Pairs agree on the identifiable metric subset, while the full five-metric sweep produces disagreement on the closest pair. The contribution is not a new leaderboard, but a reporting discipline for supervised financial benchmarks whose gold labels exist and whose evaluation ruler still requires governance.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

ValueBlindBench: Agreement-Gated Stress Testing of LLM-Judged Investment Rationales Before Returns Are Observable

LLM-based financial agents increasingly produce investment rationales before the outcomes needed to evaluate them are observable. This creates a delayed-ground-truth evaluation problem: realized returns remain the eventual arbiter of investment quality, but they arrive too late and are too noisy to guide many model-development and governance decisions. LLM judges offer a tempting shortcut for pre-deployment evaluation of AI-finance systems, but unvalidated judges may reward verbosity, confidence, or rubric mimicry rather than financial judgment. This paper introduces ValueBlindBench, a preregistered agreement-gated stress-test protocol for deciding when LLM-judged investment-rationale claims are publishable, qualified, or invalid. In a controlled market-state capital-allocation prototype with 1,000 honest decision cycles and 100 preregistered adversarial controls (1,100 trajectories, 5,500 judge calls), ValueBlindBench clears the aggregate agreement gate at $\bar{\kappa}_w = 0.7168$ but prevents several overclaims. Lower-rank systems collapse into a tie-class, one rubric dimension fails the per-dimension gate (\texttt{constraint\_awareness}, $\bar{\kappa}_w = 0.2022$), single-judge rankings are family-dependent, and terse-correct rationales receive a $\Delta = -2.81$ rubric-point penalty relative to honest rationales. A targeted anchor-specificity probe further shows that financial constructs such as constraint awareness are operationally load-bearing. The scientific object is therefore not a leaderboard and not a claim to measure true investment skill. ValueBlindBench is a pre-calibration metrology layer for AI-finance evaluation: it governs whether a proposed LLM-judge-based investment-rationale claim is stable enough, agreed enough, and uncontaminated enough to be reported at all.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

The End of Rented Discovery: How AI Search Redistributes Power Between Hotels and Intermediaries

When a traveler asks an AI search engine to recommend a hotel, which sources get cited -- and does query framing matter? We audit 1,357 grounding citations from Google Gemini across 156 hotel queries in Tokyo and document a systematic pattern we call the Intent-Source Divide. Experiential queries draw 55.9% of their citations from non-OTA sources, compared to 30.8% for transactional queries -- a 25.1 percentage-point gap ($p < 5 \times 10^{-20}$). The effect is amplified in Japanese, where experiential queries draw 62.1% non-OTA citations compared to 50.0% in English -- consistent with a more diverse Japanese non-OTA content ecosystem. For an industry in which hotels have long paid OTAs for demand acquisition, this pattern matters because it suggests that AI search may make hotel discovery less exclusively controlled by commission-based intermediaries.

cs.IR↗