arXiv subjects

Siegfried Eggl

Publications and source records attributed to Siegfried Eggl.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Fast and Furious: Long-term orbit integrations with collocation integrator Lobbie

Efficient and accurate numerical integration methods are fundamental to studying long-term solar system dynamics, where numerical errors can accumulate over billions of orbital periods. In this work, we investigate the performance of our modification of Lobbie, a Lobatto collocation integrator for long-term simulations of the Solar System. We compare Lobbie against the widely used WHFast symplectic integrator and the high-order adaptive collocation integrator IAS15 implementations in the Rebound package. The performance of the integrator is evaluated using five benchmark problems: a circular two-body orbit integrated over 100 Myrs, two-body orbits with eccentricities up to 1-10^{-6} to test the adaptive step size control during repeated close encounters, the full eight-planet Solar System integrated over 100 Myrs, the four giant planets integrated over 10 Gyrs, and the eight-planet Solar System together with 50 asteroids on Aten-like orbits integrated over 1Myr to test the integrator's consistency in a chaotic, close-encounter-rich environment. Across all tests, Lobbie demonstrates excellent long-term stability and competitive computational performance. For full Solar System integrations, Lobbie achieves relative energy conservation at the level of 10^{-14} while outperforming IAS15 in computational efficiency and approaching the speed of WHFast at comparable accuracy. In the Solar System plus asteroids test, Lobbie also keeps different realizations of Jupiter's orbit consistent with each other to within about 1.5 km after 1 Myr of integration, two orders of magnitude better than IAS15, being twice faster. Our results demonstrate that Lobbie provides a powerful universal alternative to traditional symplectic mappings or Gauss-Radau collocation methods for long-term dynamical simulations in celestial mechanics.

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arXiv2026

Assessing the Predictability of $\delta$ Scuti Variable Stars for Spacecraft Navigation

Previous studies have shown that $\delta$ Scuti stars can be used for determining spacecraft position and time similar to X-ray pulsar navigation, but open questions remain regarding the light-curve stability, and, therefore, the navigation accuracy that can be derived from $\delta$ Scuti variable stars. Here, we develop a computational framework to identify $\delta$ Scuti variable stars with light curves that are suitable for spacecraft navigation purposes. Our approach emphasizes quantifying timing uncertainty through developing metrics and evaluating such metrics in the context of spacecraft navigation. We analyze over 110 $\delta$ Scuti variable stars from the Kepler space telescope and 10 additional stars from the K2 mission. For each star, we produce a simple model of its normalized flux as a function of time, along with several metrics used to assess its suitability for navigation. Model quality was further assessed through comparing predictions with observations from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Out of the 120 $\delta$ Scuti variable stars we investigated in this study, 32 stars were identified as candidates predictable enough to enable spacecraft navigation.

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arXiv2025

Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Neptune Trojans

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), beginning full operations in late 2025, will dramatically transform solar system science by vastly expanding discoveries and providing detailed characterization opportunities across all small body populations. This includes the co-orbiting 1:1 resonant Neptune Trojans, which are thought to be dynamically hot captures from the protoplanetary disk. Using the survey simulator $\texttt{Sorcha}$, combined with the latest LSST cadence simulations, we present the very first predictions for the Neptune Trojan yield within the LSST. We forecast a model-dependent median number of $\sim130-300$ discovered Neptune Trojans, and infer a notable 2:1 detection bias toward the recently emerged L5 cloud near the galactic plane versus the L4 cloud, reflecting the lower-cadence coverage in the Northern Ecliptic Spur region that suppresses L4 detections. The additionally simulated Science Validation survey will offer the very first early insights into this understudied cloud. Around 60\% of detected main survey Neptune Trojans will meet stringent color light curve quality criteria, increasing the sample size more than fourfold compared to existing datasets. This enhanced sample will enable robust statistical analyses of Neptune Trojan color and size distributions, crucial for understanding their origins and relationship to the broader trans-Neptunian population. These comprehensive color measurements represent a major step forward in characterizing the Neptune Trojan population and will facilitate future targeted spectroscopic observations.

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arXiv2025

NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory Observations of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS (C/2025 N1)

We report on the observation and measurement of astrometry, photometry, morphology, and activityof the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, also designated C/2025 N1 (ATLAS) with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Comet 3I/ATLAS, the third known interstellar object, was discovered on UT 2025 July 1. Rubin Observatory had coincidentally collected images of the object's region of the sky during routine commissioning. Facilitated by Rubin's high resolution and large aperture, we successfully recovered object detections from Rubin observations spanning UT 2025 June 21 (10 days before discovery, when 3I/ATLAS was 4.5 au from the Sun) through the date of discovery, and we acquired additional images through UT 2025 July 20 as part of commissioning. We measure on-sky locations of 3I/ATLAS in Rubin ugrizy bands, with a typical precision of about 70 mas, and briefly describe the reason this is coarser than our measured static source astrometric precision of about 3 mas in Rubin images. We measure grizy magnitudes of 3I/ATLAS photometry at about 0.01 mag precision, detecting no short-term photometric variability above 0.01 mag. We derive an estimated near-nucleus dust-to-nucleus scattering cross-section ratio of eta >= 13 on UT 2025 July 2 based on Rubin photometry and an upper limit nucleus size computed from Hubble Space Telescope observations. We find Rubin colors of g - r = (0.657 +/- 0.013) mag, r - i = (0.235 +/- 0.018) mag, i - z = (0.147 +/- 0.042) mag, z - y = (0.047 +/- 0.052) mag. These data represent the earliest observations of this object by a large (>=8-meter class) telescope and illustrate the type of measurements (and discoveries) Rubin's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will begin to provide after it begins in early 2026.

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arXiv2025

Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Near-Earth Objects, Main Belt Asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, and Trans-Neptunian Objects

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a new 8m-class survey facility presently being commissioned in Chile, expected to begin the 10yr-long Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the end of 2025. Using the purpose-built Sorcha survey simulator (Merritt et al. In Press), and near-final observing cadence, we perform the first high-fidelity simulation of LSST's solar system catalog for key small body populations. We show that the final LSST catalog will deliver over 1.1 billion observations of small bodies and raise the number of known objects to 1.27E5 near-Earth objects, 5.09E6 main belt asteroids, 1.09E5 Jupiter Trojans, and 3.70E4 trans-Neptunian objects. These represent 4-9x more objects than are presently known in each class, making LSST the largest source of data for small body science in this and the following decade. We characterize the measurements available for these populations, including orbits, griz colors, and lightcurves, and point out science opportunities they open. Importantly, we show that ~70% of the main asteroid belt and more distant populations will be discovered in the first two years of the survey, making high-impact solar system science possible from very early on. We make our simulated LSST catalog publicly available, allowing researchers to test their methods on an up-to-date, representative, full-scale simulation of LSST data.

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arXiv2025

Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Discovery Rates and Characterizations of Centaurs

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will start by the end of 2025 and operate for ten years, offering billions of observations of the southern night sky. One of its main science goals is to create an inventory of the Solar System, allowing for a more detailed understanding of small body populations including the Centaurs, which will benefit from the survey's high cadence and depth. In this paper, we establish the first discovery limits for Centaurs throughout the LSST's decade-long operation using the best available dynamical models. Using the survey simulator $\texttt{Sorcha}$, we predict a $\sim$7-12 fold increase in Centaurs in the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database, reaching $\sim$1200-2000 (dependent on definition) by the end of the survey - about 50$\%$ of which are expected within the first 2 years. Approximately 30-50 Centaurs will be observed twice as frequently as they fall within one of the LSST's Deep Drilling Fields (DDF) for on average only up to two months. Outside of the DDFs, Centaurs will receive $\sim$200 observations across the $\textit{ugrizy}$ filter range, facilitating searches for cometary-like activity through PSF extension analysis, as well as fitting light-curves and phase curves for color determination. Regardless of definition, over 200 Centaurs will achieve high-quality color measurements across at least three filters in the LSST's six filters. These observations will also provide over 300 well-defined phase curves in the $\textit{griz}$ bands, improving absolute magnitude measurements to a precision of 0.2 mags.

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arXiv2025

Sorcha: A Solar System Survey Simulator for the Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to revolutionize solar system astronomy. Unprecedented in scale, this ten-year wide-field survey will collect billions of observations and discover a predicted $\sim$5 million new solar system objects. Like all astronomical surveys, its results will be affected by a complex system of intertwined detection biases. Survey simulators have long been used to forward-model the effects of these biases on a given population, allowing for a direct comparison to real discoveries. However, the scale and tremendous scope of the LSST requires the development of new tools. In this paper we present Sorcha, an open-source survey simulator written in Python. Designed with the scale of LSST in mind, Sorcha is a comprehensive survey simulator to cover all solar system small-body populations. Its flexible, modular design allows Sorcha to be easily adapted to other surveys by the user. The simulator is built to run both locally and on high-performance computing (HPC) clusters, allowing for repeated simulation of millions to billions of objects (both real and synthetic).

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arXiv2025

Sorcha: Optimized Solar System Ephemeris Generation

Sorcha is a solar system survey simulator built for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and future large-scale wide-field surveys. Over the ten-year survey, the LSST is expected to collect roughly a billion observations of minor planets. The task of a solar system survey simulator is to take a set of input objects (described by orbits and physical properties) and determine what a real or hypothetical survey would have discovered. Existing survey simulators have a computational bottleneck in determining which input objects lie in each survey field, making them infeasible for LSST data scales. Sorcha can swiftly, efficiently, and accurately calculate the on-sky positions for sets of millions of input orbits and surveys with millions of visits, identifying which exposures these objects cross, in order for later stages of the software to make detailed estimates of the apparent magnitude and detectability of those input small bodies. In this paper, we provide the full details of the algorithm and software behind Sorcha's ephemeris generator. Like many of Sorcha's components, its ephemeris generator can be easily used for other surveys.

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arXiv2025

Position and Time Determination without Prior State Knowledge via Onboard Optical Observations of Delta Scuti Variable Stars

We present a navigation concept for solving the lost in space and time problem using optical observations of $δ$ Scuti variable stars. Only a small number of techniques exist that allow a spacecraft to recover from being lost in both space and time, which can be caused by a failure of the onboard clock and navigation systems. Optical observations of $δ$ Scuti stars, which can be collected onboard from star trackers or navigation cameras, may enable autonomous position and time determination without requiring additional equipment or external communication. Our results indicate that less than one day of observation by the OSIRIS-APEX PolyCam may enable position and time determination accuracy within 0.03 au (3$σ$) and 3 seconds (3$σ$).

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arXiv2025

The Dynamical State of the Didymos System Before and After the DART Impact

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the natural satellite of (65803) Didymos, on 2022 September 26, as a first successful test of kinetic impactor technology for deflecting a potentially hazardous object in space. The experiment resulted in a small change to the dynamical state of the Didymos system consistent with expectations and Level 1 mission requirements. In the pre-encounter paper Richardson (2022), predictions were put forward regarding the pre- and post-impact dynamical state of the Didymos system. Here we assess these predictions, update preliminary findings published after the impact, report on new findings related to dynamics, and provide implications for ESA's Hera mission to Didymos, scheduled for launch in 2024 with arrival in late December 2026. Pre-encounter predictions tested to date are largely in line with observations, despite the unexpected, flattened appearance of Didymos compared to the radar model and the apparent pre-impact oblate shape of Dimorphos (with implications for the origin of the system that remain under investigation). New findings include that Dimorphos likely became prolate due to the impact and may have entered a tumbling rotation state. A possible detection of a post-impact transient secular decrease in the binary orbital period suggests possible dynamical coupling with persistent ejecta. Timescales for damping of any tumbling and clearing of any debris are uncertain. The largest uncertainty in the momentum transfer enhancement factor of the DART impact remains the mass of Dimorphos, which will be resolved by the Hera mission.

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arXiv2025

Call to Protect the Dark and Quiet Sky from Harmful Interference by Satellite Constellations

The growing number of satellite constellations in low Earth orbit (LEO) enhances global communications and Earth observation, and support of space commerce is a high priority of many governments. At the same time, the proliferation of satellites in LEO has negative effects on astronomical observations and research, and the preservation of the dark and quiet sky. These satellite constellations reflect sunlight onto optical telescopes, and their radio emission impacts radio observatories, jeopardising our access to essential scientific discoveries through astronomy. The changing visual appearance of the sky also impacts our cultural heritage and environment. Both ground-based observatories and space-based telescopes in LEO are affected, and there are no places on Earth that can escape the effects of satellite constellations given their global nature. The minimally disturbed dark and radio-quiet sky is crucial for conducting fundamental research in astronomy and important public services such as planetary defence, technology development, and high-precision geolocation. Some aspects of satellite deployment and operation are regulated by States and intergovernmental organisations. While regulatory agencies in some States have started to require operators to coordinate with their national astronomy agencies over impacts, mitigation of the impact of space objects on astronomical activities is not sufficiently regulated. To address this issue, the CPS urges States and the international community to take steps to protect the dark and quiet sky as specified in this paper.

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arXiv2024

Risk-Sensitive Orbital Debris Collision Avoidance using Distributionally Robust Chance Constraints

The exponential increase in orbital debris and active satellites will lead to congested orbits, necessitating more frequent collision avoidance maneuvers by satellites. To minimize fuel consumption while ensuring the safety of satellites, enforcing a chance constraint, which poses an upper bound in collision probability with debris, can serve as an intuitive safety measure. However, accurately evaluating collision probability, which is critical for the effective implementation of chance constraints, remains a non-trivial task. This difficulty arises because uncertainty propagation in nonlinear orbit dynamics typically provides only limited information, such as finite samples or moment estimates about the underlying arbitrary non-Gaussian distributions. Furthermore, even if the full distribution were known, it remains unclear how to effectively compute chance constraints with such non-Gaussian distributions. To address these challenges, we propose a distributionally robust chance-constrained collision avoidance algorithm that provides a sufficient condition for collision probabilities under limited information about the underlying non-Gaussian distribution. Our distributionally robust approach satisfies the chance constraint for all debris position distributions sharing a given mean and covariance, thereby enabling the enforcement of chance constraints with limited distributional information. To achieve computational tractability, the chance constraint is approximated using a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraint, which gives a conservative and tractable approximation of the distributionally robust chance constraint. We validate our algorithm on a real-world inspired satellite-debris conjunction scenario with different uncertainty propagation methods and show that our controller can effectively avoid collisions.

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arXiv2024

Empirical stability criteria for 3D hierarchical triple systems I: Circumbinary planets

In this work we revisit the problem of the dynamical stability of hierarchical triple systems with applications to circumbinary planetary orbits. We carry out more than 3 10^8 numerical simulations of planets between the size of Mercury and the lower fusion boundary (13 Jupiter masses) which revolve around the center of mass of a stellar binary over long timescales. For the first time, three dimensional and eccentric planetary orbits are considered. We explore systems with a variety of binary and planetary mass ratios, binary and planetary eccentricities from 0 to 0.9 and orbital mutual inclinations ranging from 0 to 180 degrees. The simulation time is set to 10^6 planetary orbital periods. We classify the results of those long term numerical integrations into three categories: stable, unstable and mixed. We provide empirical expressions in the form of multidimensional, parameterized fits for the two borders that separate the three dynamical domains . In addition, we train a machine learning model on our data set in order to have an alternative tool of predicting the stability of circumbinary planets. Both the empirical fits and the machine learning model are tested against randomly generated circumbinary systems with very good results regarding the predictions of orbital stability. The empirical formulae are also applied to the Kepler and TESS circumbinary systems, confirming the stability of the planets in these systems. Finally, we present a REST API with a web based application for convenient access of our simulation data set.

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arXiv2024

SatHub Panel: Satellite Interference in Observatories Around the World

Satellite constellation interference occurs across astronomical disciplines. We present examples of interference from radio and $γ$-Ray astronomy to optical and spectroscopic interference in ground-based and space-borne facilities. In particular, we discuss the impact of artificial satellites on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.), an Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope, as well as possible mitigation strategies for the European Southern Observatory 4-metre Multi-Object Spectrograph Telescope (ESO 4MOST). Furthermore, we shed light on how ground-based optical telescopes such as the Oukaimeden Observatory contribute to IAU Centre for the Protection of the Dark and Quiet Sky from Satellite Constellation Interference (IAU CPS) efforts that quantify satellite brightness.

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arXiv2024

Quantifying & Mitigating Satellite Constellation Interference with SatHub

This Birds-of-a-Feather (BOF) session on 6 November 2023 was organized by leaders and members of SatHub at the International Astronomical Union Centre for the Protection of the Dark and Quiet Sky from Satellite Constellation Interference (IAU CPS). SatHub is dedicated to observations, data analysis, software, and related activities. The session opened with a talk on the current state of affairs with regards to satellite constellation mitigation, with a focus on optical astronomy, and moved to focused discussion around the top-voted topics. These included tools and techniques for forecasting satellite positions and brightnesses as well as streak detection and masking.

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arXiv2024

IAU CPS Tools to Address Satellite Constellation Interference

The IAU Centre for the Protection of the Dark and Quiet Sky from Satellite Constellation Interference (CPS), established in early 2022 and co-hosted by NSF's NOIRLab and the SKA Observatory, was created to unify efforts to work towards mitigating some of the effects of satellite constellations on astronomy. SatHub, one of the four sub-groups of CPS, focuses on software and related tools to aid observers and industry partners in addressing some of the issues caused by commercial satellite constellations.

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arXiv2024

Expected Impact of Rubin Observatory LSST on NEO Follow-up

We simulate and analyse the contribution of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to the rate of discovery of Near Earth Object (NEO) candidates, their submission rates to the NEO Confirmation page (NEOCP), and the resulting demands on the worldwide NEO follow-up observation system. We find that, when using current NEOCP listing criteria, Rubin will typically contribute ~129 new objects to the NEOCP each night in the first year, an increase of ~8x relative to present day. Only 8.3% of the objects listed for follow-up will be NEOs, with the primary contaminant being a background of yet undiscovered, faint, main belt asteroids (MBAs). We consider follow-up prioritisation strategies to lessen the impact on the NEO follow-up system. We develop an algorithm that predicts (with 68% accuracy) whether Rubin itself will self recover any given tracklet; external follow-up of such candidates can be de-prioritised. With this algorithm enabled, the follow-up list would be reduced to 64 NEO candidates per night (with ~8.4% purity). We propose additional criteria based on trailing, apparent magnitude, and ecliptic latitude to further prioritise follow-up. We hope observation planners and brokers will adopt some of these open-source algorithms, enabling the follow-up community to effectively keep up with the NEOCP in the early years of LSST.

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arXiv2024

Summary of SatHub, and the current observational status of satellite constellations

SatHub is one of the four hubs of the IAU Centre for the Protection of the Dark and Quiet Sky from Satellite Constellation Interference (CPS). It focuses on observations, data analysis, software, and training materials to improve our understanding of the impact of satellite constellations on astronomy and observers worldwide. As a preface to more in-depth IAUS385 sessions, we gave a summary of some recent work by SatHub members and the current status of satellite constellations, including optical and radio observations. We shared how the audience can join or get more involved, e.g., via the CPS Slack for asynchronous collaboration. We also touched on what a future with hundreds of thousands of constellation satellites might look like.

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