arXiv subjects

Sigal Oren

Publications and source records attributed to Sigal Oren.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Auction Design with a Bit of Information

Consider a revenue-maximizing seller who can access a binary signal about two bidders` joint values. We explore what kind of information is most valuable to the seller by studying three classes of signals, each capturing a distinct dimension of bidders` values: their overall level (demand), their relative strength (ranking), and their dispersion while preserving bidder anonymity (competitiveness). We characterize the optimal signal and corresponding auction mechanism within each class, and find that competitiveness signals are particularly effective. Under certain regularity conditions, the optimal competitiveness signal yields at least as much revenue as any ranking signal or demand signal. Moreover, for signals that induce a monotone allocation, the optimal competitiveness signal yields at least as much revenue as any other binary signal.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2026

AI-Assisted Decision Making with Human Learning

AI systems increasingly support human decision-making. In many cases, despite the algorithm's superior performance, the final decision remains in human hands. For example, an AI may assist doctors in determining which diagnostic tests to run, but the doctor ultimately makes the diagnosis. This paper studies such AI-assisted decision-making settings, where the human learns through repeated interactions with the algorithm. In our framework, the algorithm -- designed to maximize decision accuracy according to its own model -- determines which features the human can consider. The human then makes a prediction based on their own less accurate model. We observe that the discrepancy between the algorithm's model and the human's model creates a fundamental tradeoff: Should the algorithm prioritize recommending more informative features, encouraging the human to learn their importance, even if it results in less accurate predictions in the short term until learning occurs? Or is it preferable to forgo educating the human and instead select features that align more closely with their existing understanding, minimizing the immediate cost of learning? Our analysis reveals how this trade-off is shaped by both the algorithm's patience (the time-discount rate of its objective over multiple periods) and the human's willingness and ability to learn. We show that optimal feature selection has a surprisingly clean combinatorial characterization, reducible to a stationary sequence of feature subsets that is tractable to compute. As the algorithm becomes more "patient" or the human's learning improves, the algorithm increasingly selects more informative features, enhancing both prediction accuracy and the human's understanding.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Planning Against a Prophet: A Graph-Theoretic Framework for Making Sequential Decisions

We devise a general graph-theoretic framework for studying prophet inequalities. In this framework, an agent traverses a directed acyclic graph from a starting node $s$ to a target node $t$. Each edge has a value that is sampled from a known distribution. When the agent reaches a node $v$ it observes the realized values of all the outgoing edges from $v$. The agent's objective is to maximize the expected total value of the path it takes. As in prophet inequalities, we compare the agent's performance against a prophet who observes all the realizations of the edges' values ahead of time. Our analysis reveals that this ratio highly depends on the number of paths $k$ required to cover all the nodes in the graph. In particular, we provide an algorithm that guarantees a prophet inequality ratio of $\frac{1}{2k}$ and show an upper bound of $\frac{1}{k+1}$. Our framework captures planning problems in which there is uncertainty regarding the costs/benefits of each action. In particular, it captures an over-time variant of the classic prophet inequality in which a seller leases a durable item, such as an apartment, for $n$ time units. Each period a lessee appears and may have a different value for each lease term. We obtain a tight bound of $1/2$ for this variant. To make this framework even more expressive, we further generalize it to accommodate correlations between edges originating from the same node and allow for additional constraints on the edges the agent can take. The generalized framework captures many well-studied prophet inequality problems, including $d$-dimensional matching, $k$-prophet inequality, and more.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Modeling reputation-based behavioral biases in school choice

A fundamental component in the theoretical school choice literature is the problem a student faces in deciding which schools to apply to. Recent models have considered a set of schools of different selectiveness and a student who is unsure of their strength and can apply to at most $k$ schools. Such models assume that the student cares solely about maximizing the quality of the school that they attend, but experience suggests that students' decisions are also influenced by a set of behavioral biases based on reputational effects: a subjective reputational benefit when admitted to a selective school, whether or not they attend; and a subjective loss based on disappointment when rejected. Guided by these observations, and inspired by recent behavioral economics work on loss aversion relative to expectations, we propose a behavioral model by which a student chooses schools to balance these behavioral effects with the quality of the school they attend. Our main results show that a student's choices change in dramatic ways when these reputation-based behavioral biases are taken into account. In particular, where a rational applicant spreads their applications evenly, a biased student applies very sparsely to highly selective schools, such that above a certain threshold they apply to only an absolute constant number of schools even as their budget of applications grows to infinity. Consequently, a biased student underperforms a rational student even when the rational student is restricted to a sufficiently large upper bound on applications and the biased student can apply to arbitrarily many. Our analysis shows that the reputation-based model is rich enough to cover a range of different ways that biased students cope with fear of rejection, including not just targeting less selective schools, but also occasionally applying to schools that are too selective, compared to rational students.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Fairness and Incentive Compatibility via Percentage Fees

We study incentive-compatible mechanisms that maximize the Nash Social Welfare. Since traditional incentive-compatible mechanisms cannot maximize the Nash Social Welfare even approximately, we propose changing the traditional model. Inspired by a widely used charging method (e.g., royalties, a lawyer that charges some percentage of possible future compensation), we suggest charging the players some percentage of their value of the outcome. We call this model the percentage fee model. We show that there is a mechanism that maximizes exactly the Nash Social Welfare in every setting with non-negative valuations. Moreover, we prove an analog of Roberts theorem that essentially says that if the valuations are non-negative, then the only implementable social choice functions are those that maximize weighted variants of the Nash Social Welfare. We develop polynomial time incentive compatible approximation algorithms for the Nash Social Welfare with subadditive valuations and prove some hardness results.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Mechanism Design with Moral Bidders

A rapidly growing literature on lying in behavioral economics and psychology shows that individuals often do not lie even when lying maximizes their utility. In this work, we attempt to incorporate these findings into the theory of mechanism design. We consider players that have a preference for truth-telling and will only lie if their benefit from lying is sufficiently larger than the loss of the others. To accommodate such players, we introduce $α$-moral mechanisms, in which the gain of a player from misreporting his true value, comparing to truth-telling, is at most $α$ times the loss that the others incur due to misreporting. We develop a theory of moral mechanisms in the canonical setting of single-item auctions. We identify similarities and disparities to the standard theory of truthful mechanisms. In particular, we show that the allocation function does not uniquely determine the payments and is unlikely to admit a simple characterization. In contrast, recall that monotonicity characterizes the allocation function of truthful mechanisms. Our main technical effort is invested in determining whether the auctioneer can exploit the preference for truth-telling of the players to extract more revenue comparing to truthful mechanisms. We show that the auctioneer can extract more revenue when the values of the players are correlated, even when there are only two players. However, we show that truthful mechanisms are revenue-maximizing even among moral ones when the values of the players are independently drawn from certain identical distributions. As a by product we get an alternative proof to Myerson's characterization in the settings that we consider. We flesh out this approach by providing an alternative proof to Myerson's characterization that does not involve moral mechanisms whenever the values are independently drawn from regular distributions.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Mechanisms for Trading Durable Goods

We consider trading indivisible and easily transferable \emph{durable goods}, which are goods that an agent can receive, use, and trade again for a different good. This is often the case with books that can be read and later exchanged for unread ones. Other examples of such easily transferable durable goods include puzzles, video games and baby clothes. We introduce a model for the exchange of easily transferable durable goods. In our model, each agent owns a set of items and demands a different set of items. An agent is interested in receiving as many items as possible from his demand set. We consider mechanisms that exchange items in cycles in which each participating agent receives an item that he demands and gives an item that he owns. We aim to develop mechanisms that have the following properties: they are \emph{efficient}, in the sense that they maximize the total number of items that agents receive from their demand set, they are \emph{strategyproof} (i.e., it is in the agents' best interest to report their preferences truthfully) and they run in \emph{polynomial time}. One challenge in developing mechanisms for our setting is that the supply and demand sets of the agents are updated after a trade cycle is executed. This makes constructing strategyproof mechanisms in our model significantly different from previous works, both technically and conceptually and requires developing new tools and techniques. We prove that simultaneously satisfying all desired properties is impossible and thus focus on studying the tradeoffs between these properties. To this end, we provide both approximation algorithms and impossibility results.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Stochastic Model for Sunk Cost Bias

We present a novel model for capturing the behavior of an agent exhibiting sunk-cost bias in a stochastic environment. Agents exhibiting sunk-cost bias take into account the effort they have already spent on an endeavor when they evaluate whether to continue or abandon it. We model planning tasks in which an agent with this type of bias tries to reach a designated goal. Our model structures this problem as a type of Markov decision process: loosely speaking, the agent traverses a directed acyclic graph with probabilistic transitions, paying costs for its actions as it tries to reach a target node containing a specified reward. The agent's sunk cost bias is modeled by a cost that it incurs for abandoning the traversal: if the agent decides to stop traversing the graph, it incurs a cost of $λ\cdot C_{sunk}$, where ${λ\geq 0}$ is a parameter that captures the extent of the bias and $C_{sunk}$ is the sum of costs already invested. We analyze the behavior of two types of agents: naive agents that are unaware of their bias, and sophisticated agents that are aware of it. Since optimal (bias-free) behavior in this problem can involve abandoning the traversal before reaching the goal, the bias exhibited by these types of agents can result in sub-optimal behavior by shifting their decisions about abandonment. We show that in contrast to optimal agents, it is computationally hard to compute the optimal policy for a sophisticated agent. Our main results quantify the loss exhibited by these two types of agents with respect to an optimal agent. We present both general and topology-specific bounds.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Optimal Stopping with Behaviorally Biased Agents: The Role of Loss Aversion and Changing Reference Points

People are often reluctant to sell a house, or shares of stock, below the price at which they originally bought it. While this is generally not consistent with rational utility maximization, it does reflect two strong empirical regularities that are central to the behavioral science of human decision-making: a tendency to evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point determined by context (in this case the original purchase price), and the phenomenon of loss aversion in which people are particularly prone to avoid outcomes below the reference point. Here we explore the implications of reference points and loss aversion in optimal stopping problems, where people evaluate a sequence of options in one pass, either accepting the option and stopping the search or giving up on the option forever. The best option seen so far sets a reference point that shifts as the search progresses, and a biased decision-maker's utility incurs an additional penalty when they accept a later option that is below this reference point. We formulate and study a behaviorally well-motivated version of the optimal stopping problem that incorporates these notions of reference dependence and loss aversion. We obtain tight bounds on the performance of a biased agent in this model relative to the best option obtainable in retrospect (a type of prophet inequality for biased agents), as well as tight bounds on the ratio between the performance of a biased agent and the performance of a rational one. We further establish basic monotonicity results, and show an exponential gap between the performance of a biased agent in a stopping problem with respect to a worst-case versus a random order. As part of this, we establish fundamental differences between optimal stopping problems for rational versus biased agents, and these differences inform our analysis.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

Incentives and Coordination in Bottleneck Models

We study a variant of Vickrey's classic bottleneck model. In our model there are $n$ agents and each agent strategically chooses when to join a first-come-first-served observable queue. Agents dislike standing in line and they take actions in discrete time steps: we assume that each agent has a cost of $1$ for every time step he waits before joining the queue and a cost of $w>1$ for every time step he waits in the queue. At each time step a single agent can be processed. Before each time step, every agent observes the queue and strategically decides whether or not to join, with the goal of minimizing his expected cost. In this paper we focus on symmetric strategies which are arguably more natural as they require less coordination. This brings up the following twist to the usual price of anarchy question: what is the main source for the inefficiency of symmetric equilibria? is it the players' strategic behavior or the lack of coordination? We present results for two different parameter regimes that are qualitatively very different: (i) when $w$ is fixed and $n$ grows, we prove a tight bound of $2$ and show that the entire loss is due to the players' selfish behavior (ii) when $n$ is fixed and $w$ grows, we prove a tight bound of $Θ\left(\sqrt{\frac{w}{n}}\right)$ and show that it is mainly due to lack of coordination: the same order of magnitude of loss is suffered by any symmetric profile.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

Combinatorial Auctions with Endowment Effect

We study combinatorial auctions with bidders that exhibit endowment effect. In most of the previous work on cognitive biases in algorithmic game theory (e.g., [Kleinberg and Oren, EC'14] and its follow-ups) the focus was on analyzing the implications and mitigating their negative consequences. In contrast, in this paper we show how in some cases cognitive biases can be harnessed to obtain better outcomes. Specifically, we study Walrasian equilibria in combinatorial markets. It is well known that Walrasian equilibria exist only in limited settings, e.g., when all valuations are gross substitutes, but fails to exist in more general settings, e.g., when the valuations are submodular. We consider combinatorial settings in which bidders exhibit the endowment effect, that is, their value for items increases with ownership. Our main result shows that when the valuations are submodular, even a mild degree of endowment effect is sufficient to guarantee the existence of Walrasian equilibria. In fact, we show that in contrast to Walrasian equilibria with standard utility maximizing bidders -- in which the equilibrium allocation must be efficient -- when bidders exhibit endowment effect any local optimum can be an equilibrium allocation. Our techniques reveal interesting connections between the LP relaxation of combinatorial auctions and local maxima. We also provide lower bounds on the intensity of the endowment effect that the bidders must have in order to guarantee the existence of a Walrasian equilibrium in various settings.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2017

Planning with Multiple Biases

Recent work has considered theoretical models for the behavior of agents with specific behavioral biases: rather than making decisions that optimize a given payoff function, the agent behaves inefficiently because its decisions suffer from an underlying bias. These approaches have generally considered an agent who experiences a single behavioral bias, studying the effect of this bias on the outcome. In general, however, decision-making can and will be affected by multiple biases operating at the same time. How do multiple biases interact to produce the overall outcome? Here we consider decisions in the presence of a pair of biases exhibiting an intuitively natural interaction: present bias -- the tendency to value costs incurred in the present too highly -- and sunk-cost bias -- the tendency to incorporate costs experienced in the past into one's plans for the future. We propose a theoretical model for planning with this pair of biases, and we show how certain natural behavioral phenomena can arise in our model only when agents exhibit both biases. As part of our model we differentiate between agents that are aware of their biases (sophisticated) and agents that are unaware of them (naive). Interestingly, we show that the interaction between the two biases is quite complex: in some cases, they mitigate each other's effects while in other cases they might amplify each other. We obtain a number of further results as well, including the fact that the planning problem in our model for an agent experiencing and aware of both biases is computationally hard in general, though tractable under more relaxed assumptions.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2016

On Bitcoin and Red Balloons

Many large decentralized systems rely on information propagation to ensure their proper function. We examine a common scenario in which only participants that are aware of the information can compete for some reward, and thus informed participants have an incentive not to propagate information to others. One recent example in which such tension arises is the 2009 DARPA Network Challenge (finding red balloons). We focus on another prominent example: Bitcoin, a decentralized electronic currency system. Bitcoin represents a radical new approach to monetary systems. It has been getting a large amount of public attention over the last year, both in policy discussions and in the popular press. Its cryptographic fundamentals have largely held up even as its usage has become increasingly widespread. We find, however, that it exhibits a fundamental problem of a different nature, based on how its incentives are structured. We propose a modification to the protocol that can eliminate this problem. Bitcoin relies on a peer-to-peer network to track transactions that are performed with the currency. For this purpose, every transaction a node learns about should be transmitted to its neighbors in the network. The current implemented protocol provides an incentive to nodes to not broadcast transactions they are aware of. Our solution is to augment the protocol with a scheme that rewards information propagation. Since clones are easy to create in the Bitcoin system, an important feature of our scheme is Sybil-proofness. We show that our proposed scheme succeeds in setting the correct incentives, that it is Sybil-proof, and that it requires only a small payment overhead, all this is achieved with iterated elimination of dominated strategies. We complement this result by showing that there are no reward schemes in which information propagation and no self-cloning is a dominant strategy.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2016

Dynamics of Evolving Social Groups

Exclusive social groups are ones in which the group members decide whether or not to admit a candidate to the group. Examples of exclusive social groups include academic departments and fraternal organizations. In the present paper we introduce an analytic framework for studying the dynamics of exclusive social groups. In our model, every group member is characterized by his opinion, which is represented as a point on the real line. The group evolves in discrete time steps through a voting process carried out by the group's members. Due to homophily, each member votes for the candidate who is more similar to him (i.e., closer to him on the line). An admission rule is then applied to determine which candidate, if any, is admitted. We consider several natural admission rules including majority and consensus. We ask: how do different admission rules affect the composition of the group in the long term? We study both growing groups (where new members join old ones) and fixed-size groups (where new members replace those who quit). Our analysis reveals intriguing phenomena and phase transitions, some of which are quite counterintuitive.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2016

Planning Problems for Sophisticated Agents with Present Bias

Present bias, the tendency to weigh costs and benefits incurred in the present too heavily, is one of the most widespread human behavioral biases. It has also been the subject of extensive study in the behavioral economics literature. While the simplest models assume that the agents are naive, reasoning about the future without taking their bias into account, there is considerable evidence that people often behave in ways that are sophisticated with respect to present bias, making plans based on the belief that they will be present-biased in the future. For example, committing to a course of action to reduce future opportunities for procrastination or overconsumption are instances of sophisticated behavior in everyday life. Models of sophisticated behavior have lacked an underlying formalism that allows one to reason over the full space of multi-step tasks that a sophisticated agent might face. This has made it correspondingly difficult to make comparative or worst-case statements about the performance of sophisticated agents in arbitrary scenarios. In this paper, we incorporate the notion of sophistication into a graph-theoretic model that we used in recent work for modeling naive agents. This new synthesis of two formalisms - sophistication and graph-theoretic planning - uncovers a rich structure that wasn't apparent in the earlier behavioral economics work on this problem. In particular, our graph-theoretic model makes two kinds of new results possible. First, we give tight worst-case bounds on the performance of sophisticated agents in arbitrary multi-step tasks relative to the optimal plan. Second, the flexibility of our formalism makes it possible to identify new phenomena that had not been seen in prior literature: these include a surprising non-monotonic property in the use of rewards to motivate sophisticated agents and a framework for reasoning about commitment devices.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2015

Selection and Influence in Cultural Dynamics

One of the fundamental principles driving diversity or homogeneity in domains such as cultural differentiation, political affiliation, and product adoption is the tension between two forces: influence (the tendency of people to become similar to others they interact with) and selection (the tendency to be affected most by the behavior of others who are already similar). Influence tends to promote homogeneity within a society, while selection frequently causes fragmentation. When both forces act simultaneously, it becomes an interesting question to analyze which societal outcomes should be expected. To study this issue more formally, we analyze a natural stylized model built upon active lines of work in political opinion formation, cultural diversity, and language evolution. We assume that the population is partitioned into "types" according to some traits (such as language spoken or political affiliation). While all types of people interact with one another, only people with sufficiently similar types can possibly influence one another. The "similarity" is captured by a graph on types in which individuals of the same or adjacent types can influence one another. We achieve an essentially complete characterization of (stable) equilibrium outcomes and prove convergence from all starting states. We also consider generalizations of this model.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2014

Dynamic Models of Reputation and Competition in Job-Market Matching

A fundamental decision faced by a firm hiring employees - and a familiar one to anyone who has dealt with the academic job market, for example - is deciding what caliber of candidates to pursue. Should the firm try to increase its reputation by making offers to higher-quality candidates, despite the risk that the candidates might reject the offers and leave the firm empty-handed? Or should it concentrate on weaker candidates who are more likely to accept the offer? The question acquires an added level of complexity once we take into account the effect one hiring cycle has on the next: hiring better employees in the current cycle increases the firm's reputation, which in turn increases its attractiveness for higher-quality candidates in the next hiring cycle. These considerations introduce an interesting temporal dynamic aspect to the rich line of research on matching models for job markets, in which long-range planning and evolving reputational effects enter into the strategic decisions made by competing firms. We develop a model based on two competing firms to try capturing as cleanly as possible the elements that we believe constitute the strategic tension at the core of the problem: the trade-off between short-term recruiting success and long-range reputation-building; the inefficiency that results from underemployment of people who are not ranked highest; and the influence of earlier accidental outcomes on long-term reputations. Our model exhibits all these phenomena in a stylized setting, governed by a parameter q that captures the difference in strength between the two top candidates in each hiring cycle. We show that when q is relatively low the efficiency of the job market is improved by long-range reputational effects, but when q is relatively high, taking future reputations into account can sometimes reduce the efficiency.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2014

Time-Inconsistent Planning: A Computational Problem in Behavioral Economics

In many settings, people exhibit behavior that is inconsistent across time --- we allocate a block of time to get work done and then procrastinate, or put effort into a project and then later fail to complete it. An active line of research in behavioral economics and related fields has developed and analyzed models for this type of time-inconsistent behavior. Here we propose a graph-theoretic model of tasks and goals, in which dependencies among actions are represented by a directed graph, and a time-inconsistent agent constructs a path through this graph. We first show how instances of this path-finding problem on different input graphs can reconstruct a wide range of qualitative phenomena observed in the literature on time-inconsistency, including procrastination, abandonment of long-range tasks, and the benefits of reduced sets of choices. We then explore a set of analyses that quantify over the set of all graphs; among other results, we find that in any graph, there can be only polynomially many distinct forms of time-inconsistent behavior; and any graph in which a time-inconsistent agent incurs significantly more cost than an optimal agent must contain a large "procrastination" structure as a minor. Finally, we use this graph-theoretic model to explore ways in which tasks can be designed to help motivate agents to reach designated goals.

cs.GT↗