arXiv subjects

Sihan Tu

Publications and source records attributed to Sihan Tu.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

High-Dimensional Spatial Arbitrage Pricing Theory with Heterogeneous Interactions

This paper investigates estimation and inference of a Spatial Arbitrage Pricing Theory (SAPT) model that integrates spatial interactions with multi-factor analysis, accommodating both observable and latent factors. Building on the classical mean-variance analysis, we introduce a class of Spatial Capital Asset Pricing Models (SCAPM) that account for spatial effects in high-dimensional assets, where we define {\it spatial rho} as a counterpart to market beta in CAPM. We then extend SCAPM to a general SAPT framework under a {\it complete} market setting by incorporating multiple factors. For SAPT with observable factors, we propose a generalized shrinkage Yule-Walker (SYW) estimation method that integrates ridge regression to estimate spatial and factor coefficients. When factors are latent, we first apply an autocovariance-based eigenanalysis to extract factors, then employ the SYW method using the estimated factors. We establish asymptotic properties for these estimators under high-dimensional settings where both the dimension and sample size diverge. Finally, we use simulated and real data examples to demonstrate the efficacy and usefulness of the proposed model and method.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

A Supervised Screening and Regularized Factor-Based Method for Time Series Forecasting

Factor-based forecasting using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is an effective machine learning tool for dimension reduction with many applications in statistics, economics, and finance. This paper introduces a Supervised Screening and Regularized Factor-based (SSRF) framework that systematically addresses high-dimensional predictor sets through a structured four-step procedure integrating both static and dynamic forecasting mechanisms. The static approach selects predictors via marginal correlation screening and scales them using univariate predictive slopes, while the dynamic method screens and scales predictors based on time series regression incorporating lagged predictors. PCA then extracts latent factors from the scaled predictors, followed by LASSO regularization to refine predictive accuracy. In the simulation study, we validate the effectiveness of SSRF and identify its parameter adjustment strategies in high-dimensional data settings. An empirical analysis of macroeconomic indices in China demonstrates that the SSRF method generally outperforms several commonly used forecasting techniques in out-of-sample predictions.

econ.EM↗