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Silvan Vollmer

Publications and source records attributed to Silvan Vollmer.

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Identifying Causal Effects Using a Single Proxy Variable

Unobserved confounding is a key challenge when estimating causal effects from a treatment on an outcome in scientific applications. In this work, we assume that we observe a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and that we know the mechanism that generates the proxy from the confounder. Under a completeness assumption on this mechanism, which we call Single Proxy Identifiability of Causal Effects or simply SPICE, we prove that causal effects are identifiable. We extend the proxy-based causal identifiability results by Kuroki and Pearl (2014); Pearl (2010) to higher dimensions, more flexible functional relationships and a broader class of distributions. Further, we develop a neural network based estimation framework, SPICE-Net, to estimate causal effects, which is applicable to both discrete and continuous treatments.

stat.ML

Penalty shootouts are tough, but the alternating order is fair

We compare conversion rates of association football (soccer) penalties during regulation or extra time with those during shootouts. Our data consists of roughly 50,000 penalties from the eleven~most recent seasons in European men's football competitions. About one third of the penalties are from more than 1,500 penalty shootouts. We find that shootout conversion rates are significantly lower, and attribute this to worse performance of shooters rather than better performance of goalkeepers. We also find that, statistically, there is no advantage for either team in the usual alternating shooting order. These main findings are complemented by a number of more detailed analyses.

stat.AP