Predicting High-Energy neutrino emission from X-ray absorption in CSM-interacting SNe
Core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) interacting with a dense circumstellar medium (CSM) are promising sources of high-energy neutrinos. Most neutrino predictions rely on specific assumptions about the CSM density profile and progenitor mass-loss history. We develop a data-driven framework that connects X-ray observations directly to the expected neutrino signal. Using the temporal evolution of the hydrogen-equivalent absorbing column density, N_H(t), together with the shock velocity inferred from the X-ray plasma temperature, we reconstruct the CSM density profile and shock velocity evolution. We estimate the shock-breakout (SBO) epoch and the resulting neutrino emission, and apply the method to the nearby interacting supernovae SN 2023ixf and SN 2024ggi. For both sources, we compute the expected neutrino event rates for IceCube and KM3NeT/ARCA. We find that neutrino production is concentrated near SBO, when hadronic interactions are most efficient. This naturally defines a short time window, specific to each source, that maximizes the signal-to-background ratio. Our results demonstrate that X-ray observations can constrain at once both the expected neutrino signal and the optimal time window for its detection, providing an observationally-driven strategy for multimessenger searches of these shock-powered transients.