arXiv subjects

Silvia Salini

Publications and source records attributed to Silvia Salini.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Pandemic Data Quality Modelling: A Bayesian Approach

When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial for policymakers to have always a firm grasp on what is the current state of the pandemic, and to envision how the number of infections and possible deaths is going to evolve over the next weeks. However, as in many other situations involving compulsory registration of sensitive data from multiple collectors, cases might be reported with errors, often with delays deferring an up-to-date view of the state of things. Errors in collecting new cases affect the overall mortality, resulting in excess deaths reported by official statistics only months later. In this paper, we provide tools for evaluating the quality of pandemic mortality data. We accomplish this through a Bayesian approach accounting for the excess mortality pandemics might bring with respect to the normal level of mortality in the population.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Modelling provincial Covid-19 epidemic data in Italy using an adjusted time-dependent SIRD model

In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press conferences of regional authorities and from local newspaper websites. This integration is mainly concerned with COVID-19 cause specific death data which are not available at NUTS-3 level from open official data data channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the behavior of the epidemic, specifically the number of susceptible, infected, deceased and recovered people. Predictive model performance is evaluated using comparison with real data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

COVID-Pro in Italy: a dashboard for a province-based analysis

This paper presents an dashboard developed to analyse the outbreak of the Covid-19 infection in Italy considering daily NUTS-3 data on positive cases provided by the Italian Ministry of Health and on deaths derived from Italian regional authorities' official press conferences. Descriptive time series plots are provided together with a map describing the spatial distribution of province cumulative cases and rates. A section on a proposed time-dependent adjusted SIRD model for NUTS-3 regions is also provided in the dashboard.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2016

Research infrastructures in the LHC era: a scientometric approach

When a research infrastructure is funded and implemented, new information and new publications are created. This new information is the measurable output of discovery process. In this paper, we describe the impact of infrastructure for physics experiments in terms of publications and citations. In particular, we consider the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiments (ATLAS, CMS, ALICE, LHCb) and compare them to the Large Electron Positron Collider (LEP) experiments (ALEPH, DELPHI, L3, OPAL) and the Tevatron experiments (CDF, D0). We provide an overview of the scientific output of these projects over time and highlight the role played by remarkable project results in the publication-citation distribution trends. The methodological and technical contribution of this work provides a starting point for the development of a theoretical model of modern scientific knowledge propagation over time.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Social networks, happiness and health: from sentiment analysis to a multidimensional indicator of subjective well-being

This paper applies a novel technique of opinion analysis over social media data with the aim of proposing a new indicator of perceived and subjective well-being. This new index, namely SWBI, examines several dimension of individual and social life. The indicator has been compared to some other existing indexes of well-being and health conditions in Italy: the BES (Benessere Equo Sostenibile), the incidence rate of influenza and the abundance of PM10 in urban environments. SWBI is a daily measure available at province level. BES data, currently available only for 2013 and 2014, are annual and available at regional level. Flu data are weekly and distributed as regional data and PM10 are collected daily for different cities. Due to the fact that the time scale and space granularity of the different indexes varies, we apply a novel statistical technique to discover nowcasting features and the classical latent analysis to study the relationships among them. A preliminary analysis suggest that the environmental and health conditions anticipate several dimensions of the perception of well-being as measured by SWBI. Moreover, the set of indicators included in the BES represent a latent dimension of well-being which shares similarities with the latent dimension represented by SWBI.

stat.AP↗