arXiv subjects

Silvio Gualdi

Publications and source records attributed to Silvio Gualdi.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

From Classical to Quantum-Mechanical Data Assimilation: A Comparison between DATO and QMDA

Data assimilation provides a systematic framework for combining dynamical models with partial and noisy observations to infer the evolving state of a system. In this work, we undertake a comparative study of Data Assimilation with Transfer Operators (DATO) and Quantum Mechanical Data Assimilation (QMDA), focusing on their mathematical formulation, algorithmic structure, and empirical performance. Both methods are first cast within a common operator-theoretic framework, which makes it possible to compare, on a unified basis, their representations of uncertainty, forecast propagation, and assimilation updates. We then analyse their principal similarities and differences with respect to state-space structure, update mechanisms, structural preservation properties, and computational cost. To complement the theoretical analysis, we assess both approaches on benchmark dynamical systems across a range of observational settings, including noisy, sparse, and partially observed regimes. Our results show that, despite their shared operator-theoretic motivation, DATO and QMDA embody substantially different assimilation paradigms, leading to distinct advantages and limitations in terms of interpretability, robustness, and scalability. The present study helps delineate the regimes in which each framework is most effective and offers broader insight into the design of operator-based methodologies for data assimilation.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

ByteStorm: a multi-step data-driven approach for Tropical Cyclones detection and tracking

Accurate tropical cyclones (TCs) tracking represents a critical challenge in the context of weather and climate science. Traditional tracking schemes mainly rely on subjective thresholds, which may introduce biases in their skills on the geographical region of application and are often computationally and data-intensive, due to the management of a large number of variables. We present \textit{ByteStorm}, an efficient data-driven framework for reconstructing TC tracks. It leverages deep learning networks to detect TC centers (via classification and localization), using only relative vorticity (850 mb) and mean sea-level pressure. Then, detected centers are linked into TC tracks through the BYTE algorithm. \textit{ByteStorm} is benchmarked with state-of-the-art deterministic trackers on the main global TC formation basins. The proposed framework achieves good tracking skills in terms of Probability of Detection and False Alarm Rate, accurately reproduces Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variability, and reconstructs reliable, smooth and coherent TC tracks. These results highlight the potential of integrating deep learning and computer vision to provide robust, computationally efficient and skillful data-driven alternatives to TC tracking.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

MedFormer: a data-driven model for forecasting the Mediterranean Sea

Accurate ocean forecasting is essential for supporting a wide range of marine applications. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have highlighted the potential of data-driven models to outperform traditional numerical approaches, particularly in atmospheric weather forecasting. However, extending these methods to ocean systems remains challenging due to their inherently slower dynamics and complex boundary conditions. In this work, we present MedFormer, a fully data-driven deep learning model specifically designed for medium-range ocean forecasting in the Mediterranean Sea. MedFormer is based on a U-Net architecture augmented with 3D attention mechanisms and operates at a high horizontal resolution of 1/24°. The model is trained on 20 years of daily ocean reanalysis data and fine-tuned with high-resolution operational analyses. It generates 9-day forecasts using an autoregressive strategy. The model leverages both historical ocean states and atmospheric forcings, making it well-suited for operational use. We benchmark MedFormer against the state-of-the-art Mediterranean Forecasting System (MedFS), developed at Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), using both analysis data and independent observations. The forecast skills, evaluated with the Root Mean Squared Difference and the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient, indicate that MedFormer consistently outperforms MedFS across key 3D ocean variables. These findings underscore the potential of data-driven approaches like MedFormer to complement, or even surpass, traditional numerical ocean forecasting systems in both accuracy and computational efficiency.

physics.ao-ph↗