arXiv subjects

Simo Särkkä

Publications and source records attributed to Simo Särkkä.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A parallel-in-time Newton's method-based ODE solver

In this article, we introduce a novel parallel-in-time solver for nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We state the numerical solution of an ODE as a root-finding problem that we solve using Newton's method. The affine recursive operations arising in Newton's step are parallelized in time by using parallel prefix sums, that is, parallel scan operations, which leads to a logarithmic span complexity. This yields an improved runtime compared to the previously proposed Parareal method. We demonstrate the computational advantage through numerical simulations of various systems of ODEs.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Recursive Entropic Variational Inference for Nonlinear State-Space Models

We present a class of algorithms for state estimation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach is based on a variational Lagrangian formulation that casts Bayesian inference as a sequence of entropic trust-region updates subject to dynamic consistency constraints. This framework gives rise to a family of forward-backward algorithms whose structure is determined by the chosen factorization of the variational posterior. By focusing on Gauss--Markov approximations, we derive recursive schemes with favorable computational complexity. For general nonlinear, non-Gaussian models, we close the recursions using generalized statistical linear regression and Fourier--Hermite moment matching.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Bayesian Filtering Approach for Learning Lagrangian Dynamics from Noisy Measurements

This paper proposes a Bayesian filtering-based approach for learning the dynamics of a physical system from partial, noisy measurements. We model the system dynamics using a Lagrangian mechanics formulation. As in Lagrangian neural networks (LNNs), we parameterize the kinetic and potential energies with neural networks. The unknown external forces in the Lagrangian formulation are modeled as white Gaussian noise. The corresponding Euler--Lagrange equations then yield a continuous-time stochastic state-space model (SSM) that describes the system dynamics. The neural network parameters and system states are then jointly learned via a maximum-likelihood method using Gaussian-approximation-based Bayesian filters. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on pendulum and Duffing oscillator examples, and its performance is compared with conventional LNNs and with approximate Bayesian filters using known system models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Wasserstein bounds for non-linear Gaussian filters

Most Kalman filters for non-linear systems, such as the unscented Kalman filter, are based on Gaussian approximations. We use Poincaré inequalities to bound the Wasserstein distance between the true joint distribution of the prediction and measurement and its Gaussian approximation. The bounds can be used to assess the performance of non-linear Gaussian filters and determine those filtering approximations that are most likely to induce error.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Scalable Gaussian Processes for Integrated and Overlapping Measurements Via Augmented State Space Models

Astronomical measurements are often integrated over finite exposures, which can obscure latent variability on comparable timescales. Correctly accounting for exposure integration with Gaussian Processes (GPs) in such scenarios is essential but computationally challenging: once exposure times vary or overlap across measurements, the covariance matrix forfeits any quasiseparability, forcing O($N^2$) memory and O($N^3$) runtime costs. Linear Gaussian state space models (SSMs) are equivalent to GPs and have well-known O($N$) solutions via the Kalman filter and RTS smoother. In this work, we extend the GP-SSM equivalence to handle integrated measurements while maintaining scalability by augmenting the SSM with an integral state that resets at exposure start times and is observed at exposure end times. This construction yields exactly the same posterior as a fully integrated GP but in O($N$) time on a CPU, and is parallelizable down to O($N/T + \log T$) on a GPU with $T$ parallel workers. We present smolgp (State space Model for O(Linear/log) GPs), an open-source Python/JAX package offering drop-in compatibiltiy with tinygp while supporting both standard and exposure-aware GP modeling. As SSMs provide a framework for representing general GP kernels via their series expansion, smolgp also brings scalable performance to many commonly used covariance kernels in astronomy that lack quasiseparability, such as the quasiperiodic kernel. The substantial performance boosts at large $N$ will enable massive multi-instrument cross-comparisons where exposure overlap is ubiquitous, and unlocks the potential for analyses with more complex models and/or higher dimensional datasets.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Integrating Lagrangian Neural Networks into the Dyna Framework for Reinforcement Learning

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is sample-efficient but depends on the accuracy of the learned dynamics, which are often modeled using black-box methods that do not adhere to physical laws. Those methods tend to produce inaccurate predictions when presented with data that differ from the original training set. In this work, we employ Lagrangian neural networks (LNNs), which enforce an underlying Lagrangian structure to train the model within a Dyna-based MBRL framework. Furthermore, we train the LNN using stochastic gradient-based and state-estimation-based optimizers to learn the network's weights. The state-estimation-based method converges faster than the stochastic gradient-based method during neural network training. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed LNN-based Dyna framework for MBRL.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Estimation of log-Gaussian gamma processes with iterated posterior linearization and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable, with the notable exception of Gaussian processes. Inference of models with non-Gaussian errors typically involves estimation of a high-dimensional latent variable. We propose two methods that use iterated posterior linearization followed by Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to sample the posterior distributions of such latent models with a particular focus on log-Gaussian gamma processes. The proposed methods are validated with two synthetic datasets generated from the log-Gaussian gamma process and a multiscale biocomposite stiffness model. In addition, we apply the methodology to an experimental Raman spectrum of argentopyrite.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Online Bayesian Experimental Design for Partially Observed Dynamical Systems

Bayesian experimental design (BED) provides a principled framework for optimizing data collection by choosing experiments that are maximally informative about unknown parameters. However, existing methods cannot deal with the joint challenge of (a) partially observable dynamical systems, where only noisy and incomplete observations are available, and (b) fully online inference, which updates posterior distributions and selects designs sequentially in a computationally efficient manner. Under partial observability, dynamical systems are naturally modeled as state-space models (SSMs), where latent states mediate the link between parameters and data, making the likelihood -- and thus information-theoretic objectives like the expected information gain (EIG) -- intractable. We address these challenges by deriving new estimators of the EIG and its gradient that explicitly marginalize latent states, enabling scalable stochastic optimization in nonlinear SSMs. Our approach leverages nested particle filters for efficient online state-parameter inference with convergence guarantees. Applications to realistic models, such as the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) and a moving source location task, show that our framework successfully handles both partial observability and online inference.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Dual-Level Models for Physics-Informed Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting

This paper develops an approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems by integrating probabilistic input forecasting with physics-informed output prediction. Accurate multi-step forecasting of time series systems is important for the automatic control and optimization of physical processes, enabling more precise decision-making. While mechanistic-based and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches have been employed for time series forecasting, they face significant limitations. Incomplete knowledge of process mathematical models limits mechanistic-based direct employment, while purely data-driven ML models struggle with dynamic environments, leading to poor generalization. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a dual-level strategy for physics-informed forecasting of dynamical systems. On the first level, input variables are forecast using a hybrid method that integrates a long short-term memory (LSTM) network into probabilistic state transition models (STMs). On the second level, these stochastically predicted inputs are sequentially fed into a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to generate multi-step output predictions. The experimental results of the paper demonstrate that the hybrid input forecasting models achieve a higher log-likelihood and lower mean squared errors (MSE) compared to conventional STMs. Furthermore, the PINNs driven by the input forecasting models outperform their purely data-driven counterparts in terms of MSE and log-likelihood, exhibiting stronger generalization and forecasting performance across multiple test cases.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Temporal parallelisation of continuous-time maximum-a-posteriori trajectory estimation

This paper proposes a parallel-in-time method for computing continuous-time maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) trajectory estimates of the states of partially observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs), with the goal of improving computational speed on parallel architectures. The MAP estimation problem is reformulated as a continuous-time optimal control problem based on the Onsager-Machlup functional. This reformulation enables the use of a previously proposed parallel-in-time solution for optimal control problems, which we adapt to the current problem. The structure of the resulting optimal control problem admits a parallel solution based on parallel associative scan algorithms. In the linear Gaussian special case, it yields a parallel Kalman-Bucy filter and a parallel continuous-time Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother. These linear computational methods are further extended to nonlinear continuous-time state-space models through Taylor expansions. We also present the corresponding parallel two-filter smoother. The graphics processing unit (GPU) experiments on linear and nonlinear models demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves a significant speedup in computations while maintaining the accuracy of sequential algorithms.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2025

Sequential Monte Carlo for Policy Optimization in Continuous POMDPs

Optimal decision-making under partial observability requires agents to balance reducing uncertainty (exploration) against pursuing immediate objectives (exploitation). In this paper, we introduce a novel policy optimization framework for continuous partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that explicitly addresses this challenge. Our method casts policy learning as probabilistic inference in a non-Markovian Feynman--Kac model that inherently captures the value of information gathering by anticipating future observations, without requiring suboptimal approximations or handcrafted heuristics. To optimize policies under this model, we develop a nested sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that efficiently estimates a history-dependent policy gradient under samples from the optimal trajectory distribution induced by the POMDP. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm across standard continuous POMDP benchmarks, where existing methods struggle to act under uncertainty.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

On The Performance of Prefix-Sum Parallel Kalman Filters and Smoothers on GPUs

This paper presents an experimental evaluation of parallel-in-time Kalman filters and smoothers using graphics processing units (GPUs). In particular, the paper evaluates different all-prefix-sum algorithms, that is, parallel scan algorithms for temporal parallelization of Kalman filters and smoothers in two ways: by calculating the required number of operations via simulation, and by measuring the actual run time of the algorithms on real GPU hardware. In addition, a novel parallel-in-time two-filter smoother is proposed and experimentally evaluated. Julia code for Metal and CUDA implementations of all the algorithms is made publicly available.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2025

Ultrafast Deep Learning-Based Scatter Estimation in Cone-Beam Computed Tomography

Purpose: Scatter artifacts drastically degrade the image quality of cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans. Although deep learning-based methods show promise in estimating scatter from CBCT measurements, their deployment in mobile CBCT systems or edge devices is still limited due to the large memory footprint of the networks. This study addresses the issue by applying networks at varying resolutions and suggesting an optimal one, based on speed and accuracy. Methods: First, the reconstruction error in down-up sampling of CBCT scatter signal was examined at six resolutions by comparing four interpolation methods. Next, a recent state-of-the-art method was trained across five image resolutions and evaluated for the reductions in floating-point operations (FLOPs), inference times, and GPU memory requirements. Results: Reducing the input size and network parameters achieved a 78-fold reduction in FLOPs compared to the baseline method, while maintaining comarable performance in terms of mean-absolute-percentage-error (MAPE) and mean-square-error (MSE). Specifically, the MAPE decreased to 3.85% compared to 4.42%, and the MSE decreased to 1.34 \times 10^{-2} compared to 2.01 \times 10^{-2}. Inference time and GPU memory usage were reduced by factors of 16 and 12, respectively. Further experiments comparing scatter-corrected reconstructions on a large, simulated dataset and real CBCT scans from water and Sedentex CT phantoms clearly demonstrated the robustness of our method. Conclusion: This study highlights the underappreciated role of downsampling in deep learning-based scatter estimation. The substantial reduction in FLOPs and GPU memory requirements achieved by our method enables scatter correction in resource-constrained environments, such as mobile CBCT and edge devices.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2025

Conditional Normalizing Flow Surrogate for Monte Carlo Prediction of Radiative Properties in Nanoparticle-Embedded Layers

We present a probabilistic, data-driven surrogate model for predicting the radiative properties of nanoparticle embedded scattering media. The model uses conditional normalizing flows, which learn the conditional distribution of optical outputs, including reflectance, absorbance, and transmittance, given input parameters such as the absorption coefficient, scattering coefficient, anisotropy factor, and particle size distribution. We generate training data using Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations, with optical properties derived from Mie theory. Unlike conventional neural networks, the conditional normalizing flow model yields full posterior predictive distributions, enabling both accurate forecasts and principled uncertainty quantification. Our results demonstrate that this model achieves high predictive accuracy and reliable uncertainty estimates, establishing it as a powerful and efficient surrogate for radiative transfer simulations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Quantum-assisted Gaussian process regression using random Fourier features

Probabilistic machine learning models are distinguished by their ability to integrate prior knowledge of noise statistics, smoothness parameters, and training data uncertainty. A common approach involves modeling data with Gaussian processes; however, their computational complexity quickly becomes intractable as the training dataset grows. To address this limitation, we introduce a quantum-assisted algorithm for sparse Gaussian process regression based on the random Fourier feature kernel approximation. We start by encoding the data matrix into a quantum state using a multi-controlled unitary operation, which encodes the classical representation of the random Fourier features matrix used for kernel approximation. We then employ a quantum principal component analysis along with a quantum phase estimation technique to extract the spectral decomposition of the kernel matrix. We apply a conditional rotation operator to the ancillary qubit based on the eigenvalue. We then use Hadamard and swap tests to compute the mean and variance of the posterior Gaussian distribution. We achieve a polynomial-order computational speedup relative to the classical method.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2025

Determination of Particle-Size Distributions from Light-Scattering Measurement Using Constrained Gaussian Process Regression

In this work, we propose a novel methodology for robustly estimating particle size distributions from optical scattering measurements using constrained Gaussian process regression. The estimation of particle size distributions is commonly formulated as a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind, an ill-posed inverse problem characterized by instability due to measurement noise and limited data. To address this, we use a Gaussian process prior to regularize the solution and integrate a normalization constraint into the Gaussian process via two approaches: by constraining the Gaussian process using a pseudo-measurement and by using Lagrange multipliers in the equivalent optimization problem. To improve computational efficiency, we employ a spectral expansion of the covariance kernel using eigenfunctions of the Laplace operator, resulting in a computationally tractable low-rank representation without sacrificing accuracy. Additionally, we investigate two complementary strategies for hyperparameter estimation: a data-driven approach based on maximizing the unconstrained log marginal likelihood, and an alternative approach where the physical constraints are taken into account. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed constrained Gaussian process regression framework accurately reconstructs particle size distributions, producing numerically stable, smooth, and physically interpretable results. This methodology provides a principled and efficient solution for addressing inverse scattering problems and related ill-posed integral equations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Statistical Linear Regression Approach to Kalman Filtering and Smoothing under Cyber-Attacks

Remote state estimation in cyber-physical systems is often vulnerable to cyber-attacks due to wireless connections between sensors and computing units. In such scenarios, adversaries compromise the system by injecting false data or blocking measurement transmissions via denial-of-service attacks, distorting sensor readings. This paper develops a Kalman filter and Rauch--Tung--Striebel (RTS) smoother for linear stochastic state-space models subject to cyber-attacked measurements. We approximate the faulty measurement model via generalized statistical linear regression (GSLR). The GSLR-based approximated measurement model is then used to develop a Kalman filter and RTS smoother for the problem. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithms under cyber-attacks is demonstrated through a simulated aircraft tracking experiment.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2025

A Parallel-in-Time Newton's Method for Nonlinear Model Predictive Control

Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful framework for optimal control of dynamical systems. However, MPC solvers suffer from a high computational burden that restricts their application to systems with low sampling frequency. This issue is further amplified in nonlinear and constrained systems that require nesting MPC solvers within iterative procedures. In this paper, we address these issues by developing parallel-in-time algorithms for constrained nonlinear optimization problems that take advantage of massively parallel hardware to achieve logarithmic computational time scaling over the planning horizon. We develop time-parallel second-order solvers based on interior point methods and the alternating direction method of multipliers, leveraging fast convergence and lower computational cost per iteration. The parallelization is based on a reformulation of the subproblems in terms of associative operations that can be parallelized using the associative scan algorithm. We validate our approach on numerical examples of nonlinear and constrained dynamical systems.

math.OC↗