arXiv subjects

Simon Bing

Publications and source records attributed to Simon Bing.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Advancing Open and Reproducible Relational Learning: RelArena-$\alpha$, TabPFN-Rel and RPI

This first release of Prior Labs in relational learning shows our continued commitment to open science. We open-source three pieces of software that we expect to accelerate research in the field towards meaningful real-world impact. We aim to steer further development based on feedback from, and in collaboration with, the community. Given the early stage of development, our $\alpha$-release targets researchers and early-adopting practitioners. Over the past years, a variety of datasets and tasks for relational learning have emerged, but the community has not converged on a reliable, reproducible way to compare different methods on these tasks. Our $\alpha$-release, RelArena-$\alpha$, provides a unified framework for running and comparing baselines on RelBench v1 by standardizing data loading, evaluation protocols, tuning regimes, and support for systems with custom tuning, inspired by established tabular benchmarks such as TabArena. We plan to work with the research community to further develop RelArena-$\alpha$ into a catalyst for progress in the relational learning community. We release the initial version of TabPFN-Rel, a purpose-built relational harness for TabPFN-3. Currently ranked first among models on RelArena-$\alpha$, TabPFN-Rel makes key improvements upon RDBLearn. Beyond its ranking, TabPFN-Rel serves as a strong baseline, adding to the growing evidence that flattening a relational database into a single table remains competitive with specialized relational architectures on real-world tasks. To facilitate adoption of relational learning methods in research and industry, we release an initial $\alpha$-version of our Relational Predictive Interface, RPI, an open-source, model-agnostic interface that enables early adopters to easily define problems on new databases and apply any model implemented in RelArena-$\alpha$, including TabPFN-Rel, to these problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TabPFN-3: Technical Report

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

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arXiv2026

Structural Causal Bottleneck Models

We introduce structural causal bottleneck models (SCBMs), a novel class of structural causal models. At the core of SCBMs lies the assumption that causal effects between high-dimensional variables only depend on low-dimensional summary statistics, or bottlenecks, of the causes. SCBMs provide a flexible framework for task-specific dimension reduction while being estimable via standard, simple learning algorithms in practice. We analyse identifiability in SCBMs, connect them to information bottlenecks in the sense of Tishby & Zaslavsky (2015), and illustrate how to estimate them experimentally. We also demonstrate the benefit of bottlenecks for effect estimation in low-sample transfer learning settings. We argue that SCBMs provide an alternative to existing causal dimension reduction frameworks like causal representation learning or causal abstraction learning.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Sanity Checking Causal Representation Learning on a Simple Real-World System

We evaluate methods for causal representation learning (CRL) on a simple, real-world system where these methods are expected to work. The system consists of a controlled optical experiment specifically built for this purpose, which satisfies the core assumptions of CRL and where the underlying causal factors (the inputs to the experiment) are known, providing a ground truth. We select methods representative of different approaches to CRL and find that they all fail to recover the underlying causal factors. To understand the failure modes of the evaluated algorithms, we perform an ablation on the data by substituting the real data-generating process with a simpler synthetic equivalent. The results reveal a reproducibility problem, as most methods already fail on this synthetic ablation despite its simple data-generating process. Additionally, we observe that common assumptions on the mixing function are crucial for the performance of some of the methods but do not hold in the real data. Our efforts highlight the contrast between the theoretical promise of the state of the art and the challenges in its application. We hope the benchmark serves as a simple, real-world sanity check to further develop and validate methodology, bridging the gap towards CRL methods that work in practice. We make all code and datasets publicly available at github.com/simonbing/CRLSanityCheck

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arXiv2023

Invariance & Causal Representation Learning: Prospects and Limitations

In causal models, a given mechanism is assumed to be invariant to changes of other mechanisms. While this principle has been utilized for inference in settings where the causal variables are observed, theoretical insights when the variables of interest are latent are largely missing. We assay the connection between invariance and causal representation learning by establishing impossibility results which show that invariance alone is insufficient to identify latent causal variables. Together with practical considerations, we use these theoretical findings to highlight the need for additional constraints in order to identify representations by exploiting invariance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Identifying Linearly-Mixed Causal Representations from Multi-Node Interventions

The task of inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations, commonly referred to as causal representation learning, is fundamentally underconstrained. As such, recent works to address this problem focus on various assumptions that lead to identifiability of the underlying latent causal variables. A large corpus of these preceding approaches consider multi-environment data collected under different interventions on the causal model. What is common to virtually all of these works is the restrictive assumption that in each environment, only a single variable is intervened on. In this work, we relax this assumption and provide the first identifiability result for causal representation learning that allows for multiple variables to be targeted by an intervention within one environment. Our approach hinges on a general assumption on the coverage and diversity of interventions across environments, which also includes the shared assumption of single-node interventions of previous works. The main idea behind our approach is to exploit the trace that interventions leave on the variance of the ground truth causal variables and regularizing for a specific notion of sparsity with respect to this trace. In addition to and inspired by our theoretical contributions, we present a practical algorithm to learn causal representations from multi-node interventional data and provide empirical evidence that validates our identifiability results.

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arXiv2022

Conditional Generation of Medical Time Series for Extrapolation to Underrepresented Populations

The widespread adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) and subsequent increased availability of longitudinal healthcare data has led to significant advances in our understanding of health and disease with direct and immediate impact on the development of new diagnostics and therapeutic treatment options. However, access to EHRs is often restricted due to their perceived sensitive nature and associated legal concerns, and the cohorts therein typically are those seen at a specific hospital or network of hospitals and therefore not representative of the wider population of patients. Here, we present HealthGen, a new approach for the conditional generation of synthetic EHRs that maintains an accurate representation of real patient characteristics, temporal information and missingness patterns. We demonstrate experimentally that HealthGen generates synthetic cohorts that are significantly more faithful to real patient EHRs than the current state-of-the-art, and that augmenting real data sets with conditionally generated cohorts of underrepresented subpopulations of patients can significantly enhance the generalisability of models derived from these data sets to different patient populations. Synthetic conditionally generated EHRs could help increase the accessibility of longitudinal healthcare data sets and improve the generalisability of inferences made from these data sets to underrepresented populations.

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arXiv2021

On Disentanglement in Gaussian Process Variational Autoencoders

Complex multivariate time series arise in many fields, ranging from computer vision to robotics or medicine. Often we are interested in the independent underlying factors that give rise to the high-dimensional data we are observing. While many models have been introduced to learn such disentangled representations, only few attempt to explicitly exploit the structure of sequential data. We investigate the disentanglement properties of Gaussian process variational autoencoders, a class of models recently introduced that have been successful in different tasks on time series data. Our model exploits the temporal structure of the data by modeling each latent channel with a GP prior and employing a structured variational distribution that can capture dependencies in time. We demonstrate the competitiveness of our approach against state-of-the-art unsupervised and weakly-supervised disentanglement methods on a benchmark task. Moreover, we provide evidence that we can learn meaningful disentangled representations on real-world medical time series data.

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