arXiv subjects

Simon H. Tindemans

Publications and source records attributed to Simon H. Tindemans.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Feedback Enhancement of Time Series Aggregation for Power System Expansion Planning

As a consequence of the high variability of load demand and renewable generation, long-term and high-resolution inputs are required for power system expansion planning, making the problem intractable in real-world applications. Time series aggregation (TSA), which captures representative patterns, reduces temporal complexity while providing similar planning outputs. However, purely statistical clustering, even when enhanced with predefined ``extremes'', can overlook system-specific critical operating conditions, making it unreliable across real-world systems. Therefore, this paper links TSA accuracy on specific system operation and final solution quality, which becomes a practical bound with mean-based TSA approaches. It is observed that the distribution of operational errors is highly imbalanced, such that a few representatives dominate the total error. This paper proposes an adaptive clustering strategy based on feedback enhancement of TSA that iteratively identifies poor-performing representatives with high operational error and re-clusters only their associated periods. A study shows that the feedback enhancement improves the decision error and tighten the bound significantly compared with the plain mean-based clustering method, offering a diagnostic for TSA quality, while balancing the computational effort with solution accuracy.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Extreme value distributions of peak loads for non-residential customer segments

Electrical grid congestion is a growing challenge in Europe, driving the need for accurate prediction of load, particularly of peak load. Non-time-resolved models of peak load offer the advantages of simplicity and compactness, and among them, Velander's formula (VF) is a traditional method that has been used for decades. Moreover, VF can be adapted into a quantile VF, which learns a truncated cumulative distribution function of peak load based on electricity consumption. This paper proposes a mathematical model based on extreme value theory to characterize the probability distribution of peak load for large non-residential customers. The model underpins the quantile VF as demonstrated through multiple quantile regression and reduces its representation to just four parameters without sacrificing predictive performance. Moreover, using maximum likelihood estimation and the likelihood ratio test, we validate that the probability distribution of peak load of analysed groups belongs to the heavy-tailed Fréchet class.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

MLMC-based Resource Adequacy Assessment with Active Learning Trained Surrogate Models

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) is a flexible and effective variance reduction technique for accelerating reliability assessments of complex power system. Recently, data-driven surrogate models have been proposed as lower-level models in the MLMC framework due to their high correlation and negligible execution time once trained. However, in resource adequacy assessments, pre-labeled datasets are typically unavailable. For large-scale systems, the efficiency gains from surrogate models are often offset by the substantial time required for labeling training data. Therefore, this paper introduces a speed metric that accounts for training time in evaluating MLMC efficiency. Considering the total time budget is limited, a vote-by-committee active learning approach is proposed to reduce the required labeling calls. A case study demonstrates that, within a given computational budget, active learning in combination with MLMC can result in a substantial reduction variance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Quantifying the Aggregate Flexibility of Electric Vehicles Charging Stations for Dependable Congestion Management Products -- A Dutch Case Study

Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in the transition towards sustainable modes of transportation and thus are critical to the energy transition. As their number grows, managing the aggregate power of EV charging is crucial to maintain grid stability and mitigate congestion. This study analyses more than 500 thousand real charging transactions in the Netherlands to explore the challenge and opportunity for the energy system presented by increased charging needs and smart charging flexibility. Specifically, it quantifies the collective ability to provide dependable congestion management services according to the specifications of those services in the Netherlands. In this study, a data-driven model of charging behaviour is created to explore the implications of delivering dependable congestion management services at various aggregation levels and types of service. The probabilistic ability to offer different flexibility products, namely, redispatch and capacity limitation, for congestion management, is assessed for different categories of charging stations (CS) and dispatch strategies. These probabilities can help EV aggregators, such as charging point operators, make informed decisions about offering congestion mitigation products per relevant regulations and distribution system operators to assess their potential. Further, it is shown how machine learning models can be incorporated to predict the day-ahead consumption, followed by operationally predicting redispatch flexibility. The findings demonstrate that the timing of EV arrivals, departures, and connections plays a crucial role in determining the feasibility of product offerings, and dependable services can generally be delivered using a sufficiently large number of CSs.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Linear Aggregate Model for Realizable Dispatch of Homogeneous Energy Storage

To optimize the dispatch of batteries, a model is required that can predict the state of energy (SOE) trajectory for a chosen open-loop power schedule to ensure admissibility (i.e., that schedule can be realized). However, battery dispatch optimization is inherently challenging when batteries cannot simultaneously charge and discharge, which begets a non-convex complementarity constraint. In this paper, we develop a novel composition of energy storage elements that can charge or discharge independently and provide a sufficient linear energy storage model of the composite battery. This permits convex optimization of the composite battery dispatch while ensuring the admissibility of the resulting (aggregated) power schedule and its disaggregation to the individual elements.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Scalable quantile predictions of peak loads for non-residential customer segments

Electrical grid congestion has emerged as an immense challenge in Europe, making the forecasting of load and its associated metrics increasingly crucial. Among these metrics, peak load is fundamental. Non-time-resolved models of peak load have their advantages of being simple and compact, and among them Velander's formula (VF) is widely used in distribution network planning. However, several aspects of VF remain inadequately addressed, including year-ahead prediction, scaling of customers, aggregation, and, most importantly, the lack of probabilistic elements. The present paper proposes a quantile interpretation of VF that enables VF to learn truncated cumulative distribution functions of peak loads with multiple quantile regression under non-crossing constraints. The evaluations on non-residential customer data confirmed its ability to predict peak load year ahead, to fit customers with a wide range of electricity consumptions, and to model aggregations of customers. A noteworthy finding is that for a given electricity consumption, aggregations of customers have statistically larger peak loads than a single customer.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Risk-based approach to the Optimal Transmission Switching problem

This paper deals with the secure Optimal Transmission Switching (OTS) problem in situations where the TSO is forced to accept the risk that some contingencies may result in the de-energization of parts of the grid to avoid the violation of operational limits. This operational policy, which mainly applies to subtransmission systems, is first discussed. Then, a model of that policy is proposed that complements the classical MILP model of the N-1 secure OTS problem. It comprises a connectivity and notably a partial grid loss analysis for branch outage contingencies. Finally, its application to the IEEE 14-bus system is presented. Solutions similar to those observed in operation are reached by the algorithm, notably revealing the preventive-openings-cascade phenomenon.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Impact of Lead Time on Aggregate EV Flexibility for Congestion Management Services

Increased electrification of energy end-usage can lead to network congestion during periods of high consumption. Flexibility of loads, such as aggregate smart charging of Electric Vehicles (EVs), is increasingly leveraged to manage grid congestion through various market-based mechanisms. Under such an arrangement, this paper quantifies the effect of lead time on the aggregate flexibility of EV fleets. Simulations using real-world charging transactions spanning over different categories of charging stations are performed for two flexibility products (redispatch and capacity limitations) when offered along with different business-as-usual (BAU) schedules. Results show that the variation of tradable flexibility depends mainly on the BAU schedules, the duration of the requested flexibility, and its start time. Further, the implication of these flexibility products on the average energy costs and emissions is also studied for different cases. Simulations show that bidirectional (V2G) charging outperforms unidirectional smart charging in all cases.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Aggregate Peak EV Charging Demand: The Impact of Segmented Network Tariffs

Aggregate peak Electric Vehicle (EV) charging demand is a matter of growing concern for network operators as it severely limits the network's capacity, preventing its reliable operation. Various tariff schemes have been proposed to limit peak demand by incentivizing flexible asset users to shift their demand from peak periods. However, fewer studies quantify the effect of these tariff schemes on the aggregate level. In this paper, we compare the effect of a multi-level segmented network tariff with and without dynamic energy prices for individual EV users on the aggregate peak demand. Results based on real charging transactions from over 1200 public charging points in the Netherlands show that the segmented network tariff with flat energy prices results in more diverse load profiles with increasing aggregation, as compared to cost-optimized dispatch based on only dynamic day-ahead energy prices. When paired with dynamic energy prices, the segmented tariff still outperforms only dynamic energy price-based tariffs in reducing peaks. Results show that a balance between power thresholds and price per threshold is crucial in designing a suitable tariff, taking into account the needs of the power network. We also provide valuable insights to network operators by calculating the diversity factor for various peak demands per charging point.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Representative Days and Hours with Piecewise Linear Transitions for Power System Planning

Electric demand and renewable power are highly variable, and the solution of a planning model relies on capturing this variability. This paper proposes a hybrid multi-area method that effectively captures both the intraday and interday chronology of real data considering extreme values, using a limited number of representative days, and time points within each day. An optimization-based representative extraction method is proposed to improve intraday chronology capturing. It ensures higher precision in preserving data chronology and extreme values than hierarchical clustering methods. The proposed method is based on a piecewise linear demand and supply representation, which reduces approximation errors compared to the traditional piecewise constant formulation. Additionally, sequentially linked day blocks with identical representatives, created through a mapping process, are employed for interday chronology capturing. To evaluate the efficiency of the proposed method, a comprehensive expansion co-planning model is developed, including transmission lines, energy storage systems, and wind farms.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Efficient Quantification and Representation of Aggregate Flexibility in Electric Vehicles

Aggregation is crucial to the effective use of flexibility, especially in the case of electric vehicles (EVs) because of their limited individual battery sizes and large aggregate impact. This research proposes a novel method to quantify and represent the aggregate charging flexibility of EV fleets within a fixed flexibility request window. These windows can be chosen based on relevant network operator needs, such as evening congestion periods. The proposed representation is independent of the number of assets but scales only with the number of discrete time steps in the chosen window. The representation involves $2T$ parameters, with T being the number of consecutive time steps in the window. The feasibility of aggregate power signals can be checked using $2T$ constraints and optimized using $2(2^T-1)$ constraints, both exactly capturing the flexibility region. Using a request window eliminates uncertainty related to EV arrival and departure times outside the window. We present the necessary theoretical framework for our proposed methods and outline steps for transitioning between representations. Additionally, we compare the computational efficiency of the proposed method with the common direct aggregation method, where individual EV constraints are concatenated.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Stochastic Mean Field Game for Strategic Bidding of Consumers in Congested Distribution Networks

The rapid increase of photovoltaic cells, batteries, and Electric Vehicles (EVs) in electric grids can result in congested distribution networks. An alternative to enhancing network capacity is a redispatch market, allowing Distribution System Operators (DSOs) to alleviate congested networks by asking energy consumers to change their consumption schedules. However, energy consumers can anticipate the redispatch market outcomes and strategically adjust their bids in the day-ahead market. This behaviour, known as increase-decrease gaming, can result in the exacerbation of congestion and enable energy consumers to gain windfall profits from the DSO. In this paper, we consider a two-stage problem consisting of the day-ahead market (first stage) and redispatch market (second stage). Then, we model the increase-decrease game for large populations of energy consumers in power networks using a stochastic mean field game approach. The agents (energy consumers) maximize their individual welfare in the day-ahead market with anticipation of the redispatch market. We show that all the agent strategies are ordered along their utilities and there exists a unique Nash equilibrium for this game.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Stable Training of Probabilistic Models Using the Leave-One-Out Maximum Log-Likelihood Objective

Probabilistic modelling of power systems operation and planning processes depends on data-driven methods, which require sufficiently large datasets. When historical data lacks this, it is desired to model the underlying data generation mechanism as a probability distribution to assess the data quality and generate more data, if needed. Kernel density estimation (KDE) based models are popular choices for this task, but they fail to adapt to data regions with varying densities. In this paper, an adaptive KDE model is employed to circumvent this, where each kernel in the model has an individual bandwidth. The leave-one-out maximum log-likelihood (LOO-MLL) criterion is proposed to prevent the singular solutions that the regular MLL criterion gives rise to, and it is proven that LOO-MLL prevents these. Relying on this guaranteed robustness, the model is extended by adjustable weights for the kernels. In addition, a modified expectation-maximization algorithm is employed to accelerate the optimization speed reliably. The performance of the proposed method and models are exhibited on two power systems datasets using different statistical tests and by comparison with Gaussian mixture models. Results show that the proposed models have promising performance, in addition to their singularity prevention guarantees.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Capturing Chronology and Extreme Values of Representative Days for Planning of Transmission Lines and Long-Term Energy Storage Systems

The growing penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) is inevitable to reach net zero emissions. In this regard, optimal planning and operation of power systems are becoming more critical due to the need for modeling the short-term variability of RES output power and load demand. Considering hourly time steps of one or more years to model the operational details in a long-term expansion planning scheme can lead to a practically unsolvable model. Therefore, a clustering-based hybrid time series aggregation algorithm is proposed in this paper to capture both extreme values and temporal dynamics of input data by some extracted representatives. The proposed method is examined in a complex co-planning model for transmission lines, wind power plants (WPPs), short-term battery and long-term pumped hydroelectric energy storage systems. The effectiveness of proposed mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is evaluated using a modified 6-bus Garver test system. The simulation results confirm the proposed model efficacy, especially in modeling long-term energy storage systems.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Reinforcement Learning by Guided Safe Exploration

Safety is critical to broadening the application of reinforcement learning (RL). Often, we train RL agents in a controlled environment, such as a laboratory, before deploying them in the real world. However, the real-world target task might be unknown prior to deployment. Reward-free RL trains an agent without the reward to adapt quickly once the reward is revealed. We consider the constrained reward-free setting, where an agent (the guide) learns to explore safely without the reward signal. This agent is trained in a controlled environment, which allows unsafe interactions and still provides the safety signal. After the target task is revealed, safety violations are not allowed anymore. Thus, the guide is leveraged to compose a safe behaviour policy. Drawing from transfer learning, we also regularize a target policy (the student) towards the guide while the student is unreliable and gradually eliminate the influence of the guide as training progresses. The empirical analysis shows that this method can achieve safe transfer learning and helps the student solve the target task faster.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Targeted Analysis of High-Risk States Using an Oriented Variational Autoencoder

Variational autoencoder (VAE) neural networks can be trained to generate power system states that capture both marginal distribution and multivariate dependencies of historical data. The coordinates of the latent space codes of VAEs have been shown to correlate with conceptual features of the data, which can be leveraged to synthesize targeted data with desired features. However, the locations of the VAEs' latent space codes that correspond to specific properties are not constrained. Additionally, the generation of data with specific characteristics may require data with corresponding hard-to-get labels fed into the generative model for training. In this paper, to make data generation more controllable and efficient, an oriented variation autoencoder (OVAE) is proposed to constrain the link between latent space code and generated data in the form of a Spearman correlation, which provides increased control over the data synthesis process. On this basis, an importance sampling process is used to sample data in the latent space. Two cases are considered for testing the performance of the OVAE model: the data set is fully labeled with approximate information and the data set is incompletely labeled but with more accurate information. The experimental results show that, in both cases, the OVAE model correlates latent space codes with the generated data, and the efficiency of generating targeted samples is significantly improved.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Generating Multivariate Load States Using a Conditional Variational Autoencoder

For planning of power systems and for the calibration of operational tools, it is essential to analyse system performance in a large range of representative scenarios. When the available historical data is limited, generative models are a promising solution, but modelling high-dimensional dependencies is challenging. In this paper, a multivariate load state generating model on the basis of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) neural network is proposed. Going beyond common CVAE implementations, the model includes stochastic variation of output samples under given latent vectors and co-optimizes the parameters for this output variability. It is shown that this improves statistical properties of the generated data. The quality of generated multivariate loads is evaluated using univariate and multivariate performance metrics. A generation adequacy case study on the European network is used to illustrate model's ability to generate realistic tail distributions. The experiments demonstrate that the proposed generator outperforms other data generating mechanisms.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Generating Contextual Load Profiles Using a Conditional Variational Autoencoder

Generating power system states that have similar distribution and dependency to the historical ones is essential for the tasks of system planning and security assessment, especially when the historical data is insufficient. In this paper, we described a generative model for load profiles of industrial and commercial customers, based on the conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) neural network architecture, which is challenging due to the highly variable nature of such profiles. Generated contextual load profiles were conditioned on the month of the year and typical power exchange with the grid. Moreover, the quality of generations was both visually and statistically evaluated. The experimental results demonstrate our proposed CVAE model can capture temporal features of historical load profiles and generate `realistic' data with satisfying univariate distributions and multivariate dependencies.

cs.LG↗