Simon L. L. Michel | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

How Do AI Climate Models Respond to Warming Across Climate Zones?

Regional climate zones are expected to shift under global warming. Whether AI climate models have learned to generalize climate-zone distributions under warming in a physically meaningful way affects their suitability for climate projection. We address this question by applying a Köppen-Geiger climate-zone decomposition to AIMIP Phase 1 models under prescribed +4K SST forcing and comparing their responses to physics-based AMIP models. Using this diagnostic, we compare baseline classification skill, per-zone responses in temperature, precipitation, and near-surface specific humidity, and the spatial structure of departures from physics-based models. All AI models considered reproduce the 1979-2014 ERA5 climatology within the physics-based models' range, but only the hybrid physics-AI model NeuralGCM-HRD reorganizes zones in agreement with established thermodynamic and hydrological scaling relations. The remaining emulators have distinct failure modes traceable to their architectural treatment of land cells. A physically consistent climate-zone response is therefore necessary for AI models intended for climate projection.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

The Link between Gulf Stream Precipitation and European Blocking in General Circulation Models and the Role of Horizontal Resolution

Past studies show that coupled model biases in European blocking and North Atlantic eddy-driven jet variability decrease as one increases the horizontal resolution in the atmospheric and oceanic model components. This has commonly been argued to be related to an alleviation of sea surface temperature (SST) biases due to increased oceanic resolution in particular, with a physical pathway via changes to surface baroclinicity. On the other hand, many studies have now highlighted the key role of diabatic processes in the Gulf Stream region on blocking formation and maintenance. Here, following recent work by Schemm, we leverage a large multi-model ensemble to show that Gulf Stream precipitation variability in coupled models is tightly linked to the simulated frequency of European blocking and northern jet excursions. Furthermore, the reduced biases in blocking and jet variability are consistent with greater precipitation variability as a result of increased atmospheric horizontal resolution. By contrast, typical North Atlantic SST biases are found to share only a weak or negligible relationship with blocking and jet biases. Finally, while previous studies have used a comparison between coupled models and models run with prescribed SSTs to argue for the role of ocean resolution, we emphasise here that models run with prescribed SSTs experience greatly reduced precipitation variability due to their excessive thermal damping, making it unclear if such a comparison is meaningful. Instead, we speculate that most of the reduction in coupled model biases may actually be due to increased atmospheric resolution.

physics.ao-ph↗