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Simon Thorne

Publications and source records attributed to Simon Thorne.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

Large language models eroding science understanding: an experimental study

This paper is under review in AI and Ethics This study examines whether large language models (LLMs) can reliably answer scientific questions and demonstrates how easily they can be influenced by fringe scientific material. The authors modified custom LLMs to prioritise knowledge in selected fringe papers on the Fine Structure Constant and Gravitational Waves, then compared their responses with those of domain experts and standard LLMs. The altered models produced fluent, convincing answers that contradicted scientific consensus and were difficult for non-experts to detect as misleading. The results show that LLMs are vulnerable to manipulation and cannot replace expert judgment, highlighting risks for public understanding of science and the potential spread of misinformation.

cs.CY

Large Language Models and Scientific Discourse: Where's the Intelligence?

We explore the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by comparing the way they gather data with the way humans build knowledge. Here we examine how scientific knowledge is made and compare it with LLMs. The argument is structured by reference to two figures, one representing scientific knowledge and the other LLMs. In a 2014 study, scientists explain how they choose to ignore a 'fringe science' paper in the domain of gravitational wave physics: the decisions are made largely as a result of tacit knowledge built up in social discourse, most spoken discourse, within closed groups of experts. It is argued that LLMs cannot or do not currently access such discourse, but it is typical of the early formation of scientific knowledge. LLMs 'understanding' builds on written literatures and is therefore insecure in the case of the initial stages of knowledge building. We refer to Colin Fraser's 'Dumb Monty Hall problem' where in 2023 ChatGPT failed though a year later or so later LLMs were succeeding. We argue that this is not a matter of improvement in LLMs ability to reason but in the change in the body of human written discourse on which they can draw (or changes being put in by humans 'by hand'). We then invent a new Monty Hall prompt and compare the responses of a panel of LLMs and a panel of humans: they are starkly different but we explain that the previous mechanisms will soon allow the LLMs to align themselves to humans once more. Finally, we look at 'overshadowing' where a settled body of discourse becomes so dominant that LLMs fail to respond to small variations in prompts which render the old answers nonsensical. The 'intelligence' we argue is in the humans not the LLMs

physics.soc-ph

Leveraging Test Driven Development with Large Language Models for Reliable and Verifiable Spreadsheet Code Generation: A Research Framework

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, are increasingly leveraged for generating both traditional software code and spreadsheet logic. Despite their impressive generative capabilities, these models frequently exhibit critical issues such as hallucinations, subtle logical inconsistencies, and syntactic errors, risks particularly acute in high stakes domains like financial modelling and scientific computations, where accuracy and reliability are paramount. This position paper proposes a structured research framework that integrates the proven software engineering practice of Test-Driven Development (TDD) with Large Language Model (LLM) driven generation to enhance the correctness of, reliability of, and user confidence in generated outputs. We hypothesise that a "test first" methodology provides both technical constraints and cognitive scaffolding, guiding LLM outputs towards more accurate, verifiable, and comprehensible solutions. Our framework, applicable across diverse programming contexts, from spreadsheet formula generation to scripting languages such as Python and strongly typed languages like Rust, includes an explicitly outlined experimental design with clearly defined participant groups, evaluation metrics, and illustrative TDD based prompting examples. By emphasising test driven thinking, we aim to improve computational thinking, prompt engineering skills, and user engagement, particularly benefiting spreadsheet users who often lack formal programming training yet face serious consequences from logical errors. We invite collaboration to refine and empirically evaluate this approach, ultimately aiming to establish responsible and reliable LLM integration in both educational and professional development practices.

cs.SE

Large Language Models for Spreadsheets: Benchmarking Progress and Evaluating Performance with FLARE

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated some significant capabilities across various domains; however, their effectiveness in spreadsheet related tasks remains underexplored. This study introduces a foundation for a comprehensive benchmark framework to evaluate the performance of leading LLMs in executing spreadsheet functions, formula generation and data manipulation tasks. The benchmark encompasses tasks ranging from basic formula creation to complex, real world spreadsheet scenarios. Our findings reveal that while LLMs exhibit proficiency in straightforward tasks, they often falter in complex, multi step operations, frequently producing plausible yet incorrect outputs. These results underscore the limitations of current LLMs in handling spreadsheet tasks that require precise logical reasoning and highlight the need for integrating symbolic reasoning capabilities into LLM architectures. To support this, we introduce FLARE (Formula Logic, Auditing, Reasoning and Evaluation) a new benchmark for evaluating LLM performance on real-world spreadsheet logic, auditing, and reasoning tasks.

cs.SE

Understanding and Evaluating Trust in Generative AI and Large Language Models for Spreadsheets

Generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs) hold promise for automating spreadsheet formula creation. However, due to hallucinations, bias and variable user skill, outputs obtained from generative AI cannot be assumed to be accurate or trustworthy. To address these challenges, a trustworthiness framework is proposed based on evaluating the transparency and dependability of the formula. The transparency of the formula is explored through explainability (understanding the formula's reasoning) and visibility (inspecting the underlying algorithms). The dependability of the generated formula is evaluated in terms of reliability (consistency and accuracy) and ethical considerations (bias and fairness). The paper also examines the drivers to these metrics in the form of hallucinations, training data bias and poorly constructed prompts. Finally, examples of mistrust in technology are considered and the consequences explored.

cs.HC

Experimenting with ChatGPT for Spreadsheet Formula Generation: Evidence of Risk in AI Generated Spreadsheets

Large Language Models (LLM) have become sophisticated enough that complex computer programs can be created through interpretation of plain English sentences and implemented in a variety of modern languages such as Python, Java Script, C++ and Spreadsheets. These tools are powerful and relatively accurate and therefore provide broad access to computer programming regardless of the background or knowledge of the individual using them. This paper presents a series of experiments with ChatGPT to explore the tool's ability to produce valid spreadsheet formulae and related computational outputs in situations where ChatGPT has to deduce, infer and problem solve the answer. The results show that in certain circumstances, ChatGPT can produce correct spreadsheet formulae with correct reasoning, deduction and inference. However, when information is limited, uncertain or the problem is too complex, the accuracy of ChatGPT breaks down as does its ability to reason, infer and deduce. This can also result in false statements and "hallucinations" that all subvert the process of creating spreadsheet formulae.

cs.SE

Exploring Spreadsheet Use and Practices in a Technologically Constrained Setting

This paper explores the impacts of spreadsheets on business operations in a water utility parastatal in Malawi, Sub-Saharan Africa. The organisation is a typical example of a semi-government body operating in a technologically underdeveloped country. The study focused on spreadsheet scope of use and life cycle as well as organisational policy and governance. The results will help define future spreadsheet usage by influencing new approaches for managing potential risks associated with spreadsheets in the organization. Generally, findings indicate that the proliferation of spreadsheets in the organization has provided an enabling environment for business automation. The paper also highlights management, technological and human factor issues contributing to high risks associated with the pervasive spreadsheet use. The conclusions drawn from the research confirms that there is ample room for improvement in many areas such as implementation of comprehensive policies and regulations governing spreadsheet development processes and adoption.

cs.SE

A Case Study of Spreadsheet Use within the Finance and Academic Registry units within a Higher Education Institution

This paper presents the findings of a case study of spreadsheet use in a higher education institution in the UK. The paper considers the use of spreadsheets in two units of the organisation, academic registry and finance. Spreadsheet use is explored in terms of importance, training, experience, purpose, techniques deployed, size of spreadsheets created and sharing of spreadsheets. The implications of the results are then considered in terms of accurate reporting to external funding bodies such the funding councils, internal data integrity and internal data efficiencies. The results show a large volume of spreadsheets being created and used, that the profile of spreadsheet developers is typical of other studies of spreadsheet use and the need for the organisation to have clear principles and guidelines for the development of spreadsheet models in the organisation to ensure data integrity, reduce duplication of effort and to optimise the use of spreadsheets to meet the institutions goals.

cs.CY

The Role of Spreadsheets in Clinical Decision Support: A Survey of the Medical Algorithms Company User Community

This paper presents and discusses the results of a small scoping survey of Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) users from the Medical Algorithms Company website which hosts 24,000 different CDSS. These results are analysed, discussed, and compared with other similar studies and contribute to the wider understanding of how CDSS impact on clinical practice. The results show that CDSS provided by Medal are being used by clinical professionals in a variety of settings, both as an operational tool and as a research and reference tool. Whilst these tools are implemented and executed in a database, the initial logic is worked out on a spreadsheet. The paper describes that process and examines some of the results of the survey.

cs.CY

A Pilot Study Exploring Spreadsheet Risk in Scientific Research

This paper discusses the risks and potential impacts of spreadsheet errors in scientific research data in a Neuroscience research centre in the UK. Spreadsheets usage in neuroscience, or indeed any medical discipline, is a largely unreported area of spreadsheet research. This paper presents a case study exploring the possible risks and impacts of spreadsheet errors in the neuroscience research centre at the University of Newcastle. Data was collected using an online questionnaire with 17 participants and two detailed semi-structured interviews. The analysis highlights that errors in research data may lead to severe impacts such as misleading science and damaged personal and organisational reputations. In addition, many risks factors arise from using spreadsheets such as inadequate design and a lack of training. Spreadsheets are used widely in business and the impacts and risks in these fields have been studied and highlighted in detail. However, scientific research and spreadsheets have also a significant relationship that has not been clarified. The paper also draws out the similarities in spreadsheet practice between the scientific and business communities.

cs.CY

Development and Experimentation of a Software Tool for Identifying High Risk Spreadsheets for Auditing

Heavy use of spreadsheets by organisations bears many potential risks such as errors, ambiguity, data loss, duplication, and fraud. In this paper these risks are briefly outlined along with their available mitigation methods such as: documentation, centralisation, auditing and user training. However, because of the large quantities of spreadsheets used in organisations, applying these methods on all spreadsheets is impossible. This fact is considered as a deficiency in these methods, a gap which is addressed in this paper. In this paper a new software tool for managing spreadsheets and identifying the risk levels they include is proposed, developed and tested. As an add-in for Microsoft Excel application, "Risk Calculator" can automatically collect and record spreadsheet properties in an inventory database and assign risk scores based on their importance, use and complexity. Consequently, auditing processes can be targeted to high risk spreadsheets. Such a method saves time, effort, and money.

cs.SE

Defending the future: An MSc module in End User Computing Risk Management

This paper describes the rationale, curriculum and subject matter of a new MSc module being taught on an MSc Finance and Information Management course at the University of Wales Institute in Cardiff. Academic research on spreadsheet risks now has some penetration in academic literature and there is a growing body of knowledge on the subjects of spreadsheet error, human factors, spreadsheet engineering, "best practice", spreadsheet risk management and various techniques used to mitigate spreadsheet errors. This new MSc module in End User Computing Risk Management is an attempt to pull all of this research and practitioner experience together to arm the next generation of finance spreadsheet champions with the relevant knowledge, techniques and critical perspective on an emerging discipline.

cs.SE

Investigating the use of Software Agents to Reduce The Risk of Undetected Errors in Strategic Spreadsheet Applications

There is an overlooked iceberg of problems in end user computing. Spreadsheets are developed by people who are very skilled in their main job function, be it finance, procurement, or production planning, but often have had no formal training in spreadsheet use. IT auditors focus on mainstream information systems but regard spreadsheets as user problems, outside their concerns. Internal auditors review processes, but not the tools that support decision making in these processes. This paper highlights the gaps between risk management and end user awareness in spreadsheet research. In addition the potential benefits of software agent technologies to the management of risk in spreadsheets are explored. This paper discusses the current research into end user computing and spreadsheet use awareness.

cs.HC

A Novel Approach to Formulae Production and Overconfidence Measurement to Reduce Risk in Spreadsheet Modelling

Research on formulae production in spreadsheets has established the practice as high risk yet unrecognised as such by industry. There are numerous software applications that are designed to audit formulae and find errors. However these are all post creation, designed to catch errors before the spreadsheet is deployed. As a general conclusion from EuSpRIG 2003 conference it was decided that the time has come to attempt novel solutions based on an understanding of human factors. Hence in this paper we examine one such possibility namely a novel example driven modelling approach. We discuss a control experiment that compares example driven modelling against traditional approaches over several progressively more difficult tests. The results are very interesting and certainly point to the value of further investigation of the example driven potential. Lastly we propose a method for statistically analysing the problem of overconfidence in spreadsheet modellers.

cs.HC

Exploring Human Factors in Spreadsheet Development

In this paper we consider human factors and their impact on spreadsheet development in strategic decision-making. This paper brings forward research from many disciplines both directly related to spreadsheets and a broader spectrum from psychology to industrial processing. We investigate how human factors affect a simplified development cycle and what the potential consequences are.

cs.HC

Towards a Spreadsheet Engineering

In this paper, we report some on-going focused research, but are further keen to set it in the context of a proposed bigger picture, as follows. There is a certain depressing pattern about the attitude of industry to spreadsheet error research and a certain pattern about conferences highlighting these issues. Is it not high time to move on from measuring spreadsheet errors to developing an armoury of disciplines and controls? In short, we propose the need to rigorously lay the foundations of a spreadsheet engineering discipline. Clearly, multiple research teams would be required to tackle such a big task. This suggests the need for both national and international collaborative research, since any given group can only address a small segment of the whole. There are already a small number of examples of such on-going international collaborative research. Having established the need for a directed research effort, the rest of the paper then attempts to act as an exemplar in demonstrating and applying this focus. With regard to one such of research, in a recent paper, Panko (2005) stated that: "...group development and testing appear to be promising areas to pursue". Of particular interest to us are some gaps in the published research record on techniques to reduce errors. We further report on the topics: techniques for cross-checking, time constraints effects, and some aspects of developer perception.

cs.CY

Considering Functional Spreadsheet Operator Usage Suggests the Value of Example Driven Modelling for Decision Support Systems

Most spreadsheet surveys both for reporting use and error focus on the practical application of the spreadsheet in a particular industry. Typically these studies will illustrate that a particular percentage of spreadsheets are used for optimisation and a further percentage are used for 'What if' analysis. Much less common is examining the classes of function, as defined by the vendor, used by modellers to build their spreadsheet models. This alternative analysis allows further insight into the programming nature of spreadsheets and may assist researchers in targeting particular structures in spreadsheet software for further investigation. Further, understanding the functional make-up of spreadsheets allows effective evaluation of novel approaches from a programming point of view. It allows greater insight into studies that report what spreadsheets are used for since it is explicit which functional structures are in use in spreadsheets. We conclude that a deeper understanding of the use of operators and the operator's relationship to error would provide fresh insight into the spreadsheet error problem. Considering functional spreadsheet operator usage suggests the value of Example Driven Modelling for Decision Support Systems

cs.HC