arXiv subjects

Sina Aghaee Dabaghan Fard

Publications and source records attributed to Sina Aghaee Dabaghan Fard.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Efficient Bayesian Deep Ensembles via Analytic Predictive Inference

We introduce an efficient Bayesian deep ensemble method for predictive regression designed to enhance interpretability while maintaining competitive predictive performance and computational efficiency. Our method combines the statistical rigor of Bayesian inference with the scalability of deep ensembles, providing calibrated uncertainty estimates that enable its use not only for standalone prediction but also as a component within broader learning systems. To achieve these goals, our work relies on three key design components: (i) low-dimensional ensemble representation: predictions are expressed as a combination of a small number of trained neural predictors, enabling scalable inference whose cost depends on ensemble size rather than dataset size; (ii) closed-form Bayesian aggregation: ensemble predictions are combined using Bayesian linear regression, yielding interpretable posterior weights and calibrated uncertainty without approximate inference; and (iii) Independent ensemble training: multiple neural networks are trained separately, producing diverse predictive representations that improve robustness and uncertainty calibration. Empirical results on standard regression benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves competitive predictive performance while maintaining reliable uncertainty estimates across settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Bayesian Joint Model of Multi-Sensor and Failure Event Data for Multi-Mode Failure Prediction

Modern industrial systems are often subject to multiple failure modes, and their conditions are monitored by multiple sensors, generating multiple time-series signals. Additionally, time-to-failure data are commonly available. Accurately predicting a system's remaining useful life (RUL) requires effectively leveraging multi-sensor time-series data alongside multi-mode failure event data. In most existing models, failure modes and RUL prediction are performed independently, ignoring the inherent relationship between these two tasks. Some models integrate multiple failure modes and event prediction using black-box machine learning approaches, which lack statistical rigor and cannot characterize the inherent uncertainty in the model and data. This paper introduces a unified approach to jointly model the multi-sensor time-series data and failure time concerning multiple failure modes. This proposed model integrate a Cox proportional hazards model, a Convolved Multi-output Gaussian Process, and multinomial failure mode distributions in a hierarchical Bayesian framework with corresponding priors, enabling accurate prediction with robust uncertainty quantification. Posterior distributions are effectively obtained by Variational Bayes, and prediction is performed with Monte Carlo sampling. The advantages of the proposed model is validated through extensive numerical and case studies with jet-engine dataset.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Robust Physics-Informed Neural Network Approach for Estimating Heterogeneous Elastic Properties from Noisy Displacement Data

Accurately estimating spatially heterogeneous elasticity parameters, particularly Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio, from noisy displacement measurements remains significantly challenging in inverse elasticity problems. Existing inverse estimation techniques are often limited by instability, pronounced sensitivity to measurement noise, and difficulty in recovering absolute-scale Young's modulus. This work presents a novel Inverse Elasticity Physics-Informed Neural Network (IE-PINN) specifically designed to robustly reconstruct heterogeneous distributions of elasticity parameters from noisy displacement data based on linear elasticity physics. IE-PINN integrates three distinct neural network architectures dedicated to separately modeling displacement fields, strain fields, and elasticity distributions, thereby significantly enhancing stability and accuracy against measurement noise. Additionally, a two-phase estimation strategy is introduced: the first phase recovers relative spatial distributions of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio, and the second phase calibrates the absolute scale of Young's modulus using imposed loading boundary conditions. Additional methodological innovations, including positional encoding, sine activation functions, and a sequential pretraining protocol, further enhance the model's performance and robustness. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that IE-PINN effectively overcomes critical limitations encountered by existing methods, delivering accurate absolute-scale elasticity estimations even under severe noise conditions. This advancement holds substantial potential for clinical imaging diagnostics and mechanical characterization, where measurements typically encounter substantial noise.

cs.LG↗