arXiv subjects

Sindri Magnússon

Publications and source records attributed to Sindri Magnússon.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

User-Assisted Collaborative Distributed Inference for Efficient QoS-Aware Autoscaling

Growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) inference services requires scalable infrastructure, yet centralized serving costs rise with demand. We propose a collaborative distributed inference system combining dedicated infrastructure with resources contributed by service users. Dedicated resources provide baseline capacity for maintaining quality of service (QoS), while volunteered resources absorb increasing demand without proportional growth in centralized infrastructure. To capture stochastic and dynamic interactions among users, resources, tasks, and policies, we develop a high-dimensional generative Markov model with structured temporal factorization. The model supports simulation and provides a foundation for task scheduling and QoS-aware resource allocation optimization. We evaluate the system across user populations, resource capacities, and centralized and distributed scheduling policies. Simulations show that distributed scheduling becomes increasingly advantageous as the user population grows, improving request completion and P99 latency while substantially reducing dedicated resource consumption. These results demonstrate the feasibility of user-assisted collaborative inference for infrastructure-efficient autoscaling.

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arXiv2026

Trust-Aware Topology Learning for Dynamic Decentralized Federated Learning under Adversaries

In dynamic mobile decentralized federated learning (DFL), adversaries can poison both model updates and the topology information devices use to choose collaborators. We present DMTT (Dynamic MURMURA with Trusted Topology), a decentralized personalized FL protocol built on MURMURA, which uses evidential deep learning to down-weight distribution-mismatched peers, extended here to time-varying graphs under topology-manipulation attacks. Each device maintains a confidence-weighted local topology view from link-reliability estimates, signed topology claims, witness corroboration, and a Beta-distributed source-trust model, then aggregates only over a trust-screened collaborator set using a composite score fusing model compatibility, topology trust, and link reliability. We prove the screened mixing matrices confine Byzantine influence to a bounded residual $δ_{max}$ that vanishes under perfect screening, and implement DMTT as a coordinator-free distributed system with each client running as an independent ZeroMQ process synchronized by a shared wall-clock epoch. On UCI HAR and PAMAP2, each partitioned across 100 mobile clients with Dirichlet heterogeneity, DMTT sustains honest-node accuracy above 0.862 (UCI HAR) and 0.829 (PAMAP2) across all tested adversary fractions (10 to 80%), nearly matching no-attack accuracy at low fractions and degrading gracefully toward local-only performance at extremes; static and dynamic FedAvg collapse to chance at every fraction, and robust aggregators (Krum, BALANCE, UBAR) fail to consistently beat a local-only baseline, while DMTT is the only method that clears this bar across both datasets at all fractions, with surviving Byzantine aggregation weight empirically zero throughout, consistent with $δ_{max}$=0. The protocol runs end-to-end on real nodes via a coordinator-free ZeroMQ backend on the Melbourne Research Cloud.

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arXiv2026

SurvCF(t): Counterfactual Explanations for Survival Analysis in Predictive Maintenance Multivariate Time Series Data

Predictive maintenance relies on accurate Remaining Useful Life estimation, often formulated using survival analysis over multivariate time-series data. While modern deep survival models achieve strong predictive performance, their black-box nature limits their use in safety-critical settings where actionable insight is required. In this work, we introduce \textit{SurvCF(t)}, the first framework for generating counterfactual explanations for survival models operating on time-series data. \textit{SurvCF(t)} identifies minimal, plausible, and temporally consistent changes to an asset's operational history that increase its predicted life time, framing explanation as a constrained optimization problem combining validity, proximity, sparsity, and plausibility. We evaluate the method on multiple benchmarks, including C-MAPSS, N-CMAPSS, and a real-world case study of the Scania Component\_X dataset, demonstrating its ability to produce actionable and interpretable interventions. Our results show that \textit{SurvCF(t)} bridges the gap between survival prediction and prescriptive maintenance, enabling explainable and decision-oriented AI for maintenance strategies.

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arXiv2026

Reinforcement Learning in Switching Non-Stationary Markov Decision Processes: Algorithms and Convergence Analysis

We introduce the Switching Non-Stationary Markov Decision Process (SNS-MDP) framework, in which the environment transitions among a finite set of MDPs governed by a latent Markov chain while the agent observes only the external state. We show that the long-term effect of this switching is equivalent to stationary dynamics parameterized by the stationary distribution of the hidden Markov chain. For fixed policies, we derive a closed-form expression for the SNS value function and prove that standard temporal-difference (TD) learning converges to it almost surely despite persistent non-stationarity. We further establish that policy iteration converges to the optimal policy of the equivalent averaged environment, and prove that tabular Q-learning converges almost surely to the optimal Q-function. The framework is validated on a wireless communication network with Markovian channel noise, demonstrating its practical efficacy for decision-making in rapidly time-varying systems.

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arXiv2026

Brief Announcement: Generative Markov Model for Distributed Computing Systems

Emerging distributed computing paradigms, such as the computing continuum, are inherently heterogeneous, stochastic, and complex. Efficiently and effectively utilizing all available resources across the continuum demands a unified formal model of the system. To address this gap, we propose a general framework for modeling distributed computing systems as a generative Markov model, factorized over a structured system state. In our model, the state decomposes into high-dimensional variables, each further factorized over its elements, reflecting the sparse dependency structure inherent to distributed systems. This yields a tractable model enabling simulation, inference, and policy learning over otherwise intractable system states, bridging distributed computing with Markov chain theory and reinforcement learning (RL). We demonstrate our framework through a case study of collaborative AI inference, in which a dedicated server combines resources with those volunteered by service users. Our results show that centralized scheduling becomes a bottleneck at scale, while distributing computation across user devices reduces both latency and server resource consumption. These findings highlight the value of adaptive decision-making in distributed computing systems and demonstrate the framework's utility for modeling, simulation, and optimization.

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arXiv2026

MARBLE: Multi-Armed Restless Bandits in Latent Markovian Environment

Restless Multi-Armed Bandits (RMABs) are powerful models for decision-making under uncertainty, yet classical formulations typically assume fixed dynamics, an assumption often violated in nonstationary environments. We introduce MARBLE (Multi-Armed Restless Bandits in a Latent Markovian Environment), which augments RMABs with a latent Markov state that induces nonstationary behavior. In MARBLE, each arm evolves according to a latent environment state that switches over time, making policy learning substantially more challenging. We further introduce the Markov-Averaged Indexability (MAI) criterion as a relaxed indexability assumption and prove that, despite unobserved regime switches, under the MAI criterion, synchronous Q-learning with Whittle Indices (QWI) converges almost surely to the optimal Q-function and the corresponding Whittle indices. We validate MARBLE on a calibrated simulator-embedded (digital twin) recommender system, where QWI consistently adapts to a shifting latent state and converges to an optimal policy, empirically corroborating our theoretical findings.

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arXiv2026

Dynamic and Distributed Routing in IoT Networks based on Multi-Objective Q-Learning

IoT networks often face conflicting routing goals such as maximizing packet delivery, minimizing delay, and conserving limited battery energy. These priorities can also change dynamically: for example, an emergency alert requires high reliability, while routine monitoring prioritizes energy efficiency to prolong network lifetime. Existing works, including many deep reinforcement learning approaches, are typically centralized and assume static objectives, making them slow to adapt when preferences shift. We propose a dynamic and fully distributed multi-objective Q-learning routing algorithm that learns multiple per-preference Q-tables in parallel and introduces a novel greedy interpolation policy to act near-optimally for unseen preferences without retraining or central coordination. A theoretical analysis further shows that the optimal value function is Lipschitz-continuous in the preference parameter, ensuring that the proposed greedy interpolation policy yields provably near-optimal behavior. Simulations show that our approach adapts in real time to shifting priorities and achieves up to 80-90\% lower energy consumption and more than 2-5x higher cumulative rewards and packet delivery compared to six baseline protocols, under dynamic and distributed settings. Sensitivity analysis across varying preference window lengths confirms that the proposed DPQ framework consistently achieves higher composite reward than all baseline methods, demonstrating robustness to changes in operating conditions.

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arXiv2025

Socio-technical aspects of Agentic AI

Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI) represents a fundamental shift in the design of intelligent systems, characterized by interconnected components that collectively enable autonomous perception, reasoning, planning, action, and learning. Recent research on agentic AI has largely focused on technical foundations, including system architectures, reasoning and planning mechanisms, coordination strategies, and application-level performance across domains. However, the societal, ethical, economic, environmental, and governance implications of agentic AI remain weakly integrated into these technical treatments. This paper addresses this gap by presenting a socio-technical analysis of agentic AI that explicitly connects core technical components with societal context. We examine how architectural choices in perception, cognition, planning, execution, and memory introduce dependencies related to data governance, accountability, transparency, safety, and sustainability. To structure this analysis, we adopt the MAD-BAD-SAD construct as an analytical lens, capturing motivations, applications, and moral dilemmas (MAD); biases, accountability, and dangers (BAD); and societal impact, adoption, and design considerations (SAD). Using this lens, we analyze ethical considerations, implications, and challenges arising from contemporary agentic AI systems and assess their manifestation across emerging applications, including healthcare, education, industry, smart and sustainable cities, social services, communications and networking, and earth observation and satellite communications. The paper further identifies open challenges and suggests future research directions, framing agentic AI as an integrated socio-technical system whose behavior and impact are co-produced by algorithms, data, organizational practices, regulatory frameworks, and social norms.

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arXiv2025

Challenger-Based Combinatorial Bandits for Subcarrier Selection in OFDM Systems

This paper investigates the identification of the top-m user-scheduling sets in multi-user MIMO downlink, which is cast as a combinatorial pure-exploration problem in stochastic linear bandits. Because the action space grows exponentially, exhaustive search is infeasible. We therefore adopt a linear utility model to enable efficient exploration and reliable selection of promising user subsets. We introduce a gap-index framework that maintains a shortlist of current estimates of champion arms (top-m sets) and a rotating shortlist of challenger arms that pose the greatest threat to the champions. This design focuses on measurements that yield the most informative gap-index-based comparisons, resulting in significant reductions in runtime and computation compared to state-of-the-art linear bandit methods, with high identification accuracy. The method also exposes a tunable trade-off between speed and accuracy. Simulations on a realistic OFDM downlink show that shortlist-driven pure exploration makes online, measurement-efficient subcarrier selection practical for AI-enabled communication systems.

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arXiv2025

Adaptive Budgeted Multi-Armed Bandits for IoT with Dynamic Resource Constraints

Internet of Things (IoT) systems increasingly operate in environments where devices must respond in real time while managing fluctuating resource constraints, including energy and bandwidth. Yet, current approaches often fall short in addressing scenarios where operational constraints evolve over time. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Budgeted Multi-Armed Bandit framework tailored for IoT applications with dynamic operational limits. Our model introduces a decaying violation budget, which permits limited constraint violations early in the learning process and gradually enforces stricter compliance over time. We present the Budgeted Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm, which adaptively balances performance optimization and compliance with time-varying constraints. We provide theoretical guarantees showing that Budgeted UCB achieves sublinear regret and logarithmic constraint violations over the learning horizon. Extensive simulations in a wireless communication setting show that our approach achieves faster adaptation and better constraint satisfaction than standard online learning methods. These results highlight the framework's potential for building adaptive, resource-aware IoT systems.

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arXiv2025

Collaborative Value Function Estimation Under Model Mismatch: A Federated Temporal Difference Analysis

Federated reinforcement learning (FedRL) enables collaborative learning while preserving data privacy by preventing direct data exchange between agents. However, many existing FedRL algorithms assume that all agents operate in identical environments, which is often unrealistic. In real-world applications, such as multi-robot teams, crowdsourced systems, and large-scale sensor networks, each agent may experience slightly different transition dynamics, leading to inherent model mismatches. In this paper, we first establish linear convergence guarantees for single-agent temporal difference learning (TD(0)) in policy evaluation and demonstrate that under a perturbed environment, the agent suffers a systematic bias that prevents accurate estimation of the true value function. This result holds under both i.i.d. and Markovian sampling regimes. We then extend our analysis to the federated TD(0) (FedTD(0)) setting, where multiple agents, each interacting with its own perturbed environment, periodically share value estimates to collaboratively approximate the true value function of a common underlying model. Our theoretical results indicate the impact of model mismatch, network connectivity, and mixing behavior on the convergence of FedTD(0). Empirical experiments corroborate our theoretical gains, highlighting that even moderate levels of information sharing significantly mitigate environment-specific errors.

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arXiv2025

SCANIA Component X Dataset: A Real-World Multivariate Time Series Dataset for Predictive Maintenance

Predicting failures and maintenance time in predictive maintenance is challenging due to the scarcity of comprehensive real-world datasets, and among those available, few are of time series format. This paper introduces a real-world, multivariate time series dataset collected exclusively from a single anonymized engine component (Component X) across a fleet of SCANIA trucks. The dataset includes operational data, repair records, and specifications related to Component X, while maintaining confidentiality through anonymization. It is well-suited for a range of machine learning applications, including classification, regression, survival analysis, and anomaly detection, particularly in predictive maintenance scenarios. The dataset's large population size, diverse features (in the form of histograms and numerical counters), and temporal information make it a unique resource in the field. The objective of releasing this dataset is to give a broad range of researchers the possibility of working with real-world data from an internationally well-known company and introduce a standard benchmark to the predictive maintenance field, fostering reproducible research.

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arXiv2025

Benchmarking Dynamic SLO Compliance in Distributed Computing Continuum Systems

Ensuring Service Level Objectives (SLOs) in large-scale architectures, such as Distributed Computing Continuum Systems (DCCS), is challenging due to their heterogeneous nature and varying service requirements across different devices and applications. Additionally, unpredictable workloads and resource limitations lead to fluctuating performance and violated SLOs. To improve SLO compliance in DCCS, one possibility is to apply machine learning; however, the design choices are often left to the developer. To that extent, we provide a benchmark of Active Inference -- an emerging method from neuroscience -- against three established reinforcement learning algorithms (Deep Q-Network, Advantage Actor-Critic, and Proximal Policy Optimization). We consider a realistic DCCS use case: an edge device running a video conferencing application alongside a WebSocket server streaming videos. Using one of the respective algorithms, we continuously monitor key performance metrics, such as latency and bandwidth usage, to dynamically adjust parameters -- including the number of streams, frame rate, and resolution -- to optimize service quality and user experience. To test algorithms' adaptability to constant system changes, we simulate dynamically changing SLOs and both instant and gradual data-shift scenarios, such as network bandwidth limitations and fluctuating device thermal states. Although the evaluated algorithms all showed advantages and limitations, our findings demonstrate that Active Inference is a promising approach for ensuring SLO compliance in DCCS, offering lower memory usage, stable CPU utilization, and fast convergence.

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arXiv2025

Parallel Momentum Methods Under Biased Gradient Estimations

Parallel stochastic gradient methods are gaining prominence in solving large-scale machine learning problems that involve data distributed across multiple nodes. However, obtaining unbiased stochastic gradients, which have been the focus of most theoretical research, is challenging in many distributed machine learning applications. The gradient estimations easily become biased, for example, when gradients are compressed or clipped, when data is shuffled, and in meta-learning and reinforcement learning. In this work, we establish worst-case bounds on parallel momentum methods under biased gradient estimation on both general non-convex and $μ$-PL problems. Our analysis covers general distributed optimization problems, and we work out the implications for special cases where gradient estimates are biased, i.e. in meta-learning and when the gradients are compressed or clipped. Our numerical experiments verify our theoretical findings and show faster convergence performance of momentum methods than traditional biased gradient descent.

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arXiv2024

Compressed Federated Reinforcement Learning with a Generative Model

Reinforcement learning has recently gained unprecedented popularity, yet it still grapples with sample inefficiency. Addressing this challenge, federated reinforcement learning (FedRL) has emerged, wherein agents collaboratively learn a single policy by aggregating local estimations. However, this aggregation step incurs significant communication costs. In this paper, we propose CompFedRL, a communication-efficient FedRL approach incorporating both \textit{periodic aggregation} and (direct/error-feedback) compression mechanisms. Specifically, we consider compressed federated $Q$-learning with a generative model setup, where a central server learns an optimal $Q$-function by periodically aggregating compressed $Q$-estimates from local agents. For the first time, we characterize the impact of these two mechanisms (which have remained elusive) by providing a finite-time analysis of our algorithm, demonstrating strong convergence behaviors when utilizing either direct or error-feedback compression. Our bounds indicate improved solution accuracy concerning the number of agents and other federated hyperparameters while simultaneously reducing communication costs. To corroborate our theory, we also conduct in-depth numerical experiments to verify our findings, considering Top-$K$ and Sparsified-$K$ sparsification operators.

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arXiv2024

On the Convergence of Federated Learning Algorithms without Data Similarity

Data similarity assumptions have traditionally been relied upon to understand the convergence behaviors of federated learning methods. Unfortunately, this approach often demands fine-tuning step sizes based on the level of data similarity. When data similarity is low, these small step sizes result in an unacceptably slow convergence speed for federated methods. In this paper, we present a novel and unified framework for analyzing the convergence of federated learning algorithms without the need for data similarity conditions. Our analysis centers on an inequality that captures the influence of step sizes on algorithmic convergence performance. By applying our theorems to well-known federated algorithms, we derive precise expressions for three widely used step size schedules: fixed, diminishing, and step-decay step sizes, which are independent of data similarity conditions. Finally, we conduct comprehensive evaluations of the performance of these federated learning algorithms, employing the proposed step size strategies to train deep neural network models on benchmark datasets under varying data similarity conditions. Our findings demonstrate significant improvements in convergence speed and overall performance, marking a substantial advancement in federated learning research.

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arXiv2024

Human-Inspired Framework to Accelerate Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) is crucial for data science decision-making but suffers from sample inefficiency, particularly in real-world scenarios with costly physical interactions. This paper introduces a novel human-inspired framework to enhance RL algorithm sample efficiency. It achieves this by initially exposing the learning agent to simpler tasks that progressively increase in complexity, ultimately leading to the main task. This method requires no pre-training and involves learning simpler tasks for just one iteration. The resulting knowledge can facilitate various transfer learning approaches, such as value and policy transfer, without increasing computational complexity. It can be applied across different goals, environments, and RL algorithms, including value-based, policy-based, tabular, and deep RL methods. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the framework's effectiveness in enhancing sample efficiency, especially in challenging main tasks, demonstrated through both a simple Random Walk and more complex optimal control problems with constraints.

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arXiv2024

A Cost-Sensitive Transformer Model for Prognostics Under Highly Imbalanced Industrial Data

The rapid influx of data-driven models into the industrial sector has been facilitated by the proliferation of sensor technology, enabling the collection of vast quantities of data. However, leveraging these models for failure detection and prognosis poses significant challenges, including issues like missing values and class imbalances. Moreover, the cost sensitivity associated with industrial operations further complicates the application of conventional models in this context. This paper introduces a novel cost-sensitive transformer model developed as part of a systematic workflow, which also integrates a hybrid resampler and a regression-based imputer. After subjecting our approach to rigorous testing using the APS failure dataset from Scania trucks and the SECOM dataset, we observed a substantial enhancement in performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, we conduct an ablation study to analyze the contributions of different components in our proposed method. Our findings highlight the potential of our method in addressing the unique challenges of failure prediction in industrial settings, thereby contributing to enhanced reliability and efficiency in industrial operations.

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