arXiv subjects

Siragan Gailus

Publications and source records attributed to Siragan Gailus.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Large deviations of slow-fast systems driven by fractional Brownian motion

We consider a multiscale system of stochastic differential equations in which the slow component is perturbed by a small fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H>1/2$ and the fast component is driven by an independent Brownian motion. Working in the framework of Young integration, we use tools from fractional calculus and weak convergence arguments to establish a Large Deviation Principle in the homogenized limit, as the noise intensity and time-scale separation parameters vanish at an appropriate rate. Our approach is based in the study of the limiting behavior of an associated controlled system. We show that, in certain cases, the non-local rate function admits an explicit non-variational form. The latter allows us to draw comparisons to the case $H=1/2$ which corresponds to the classical Freidlin-Wentzell theory. Moreover, we study the asymptotics of the rate function as $H\rightarrow{1/2}^+$ and show that it is discontinuous at $H=1/2.$

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Discrete-time inference for slow-fast systems driven by fractional Brownian motion

We study statistical inference for small-noise-perturbed multiscale dynamical systems where the slow motion is driven by fractional Brownian motion. We develop statistical estimators for both the Hurst index as well as a vector of unknown parameters in the model based on a single time series of observations from the slow process only. We prove that these estimators are both consistent and asymptotically normal as the amplitude of the perturbation and the time-scale separation parameter go to zero. Numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical results.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Typical dynamics and fluctuation analysis of slow-fast systems driven by fractional Brownian motion

This article studies typical dynamics and fluctuations for a slow-fast dynamical system perturbed by a small fractional Brownian noise. Based on an ergodic theorem with explicit rates of convergence, which may be of independent interest, we characterize the asymptotic dynamics of the slow component to two orders (i.e., the typical dynamics and the fluctuations). The limiting distribution of the fluctuations turns out to depend upon the manner in which the small-noise parameter is taken to zero relative to the scale-separation parameter. We study also an extension of the original model in which the relationship between the two small parameters leads to a qualitative difference in limiting behavior. The results of this paper provide an approximation, to two orders, to dynamical systems perturbed by small fractional Brownian noise and subject to multiscale effects.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Discrete-Time Statistical Inference for Multiscale Diffusions

We study statistical inference for small-noise-perturbed multiscale dynamical systems under the assumption that we observe a single time series from the slow process only. We construct estimators for both averaging and homogenization regimes, based on an appropriate misspecified model motivated by a second-order stochastic Taylor expansion of the slow process with respect to a function of the time-scale separation parameter. In the case of a fixed number of observations, we establish consistency, asymptotic normality, and asymptotic statistical efficiency of a minimum contrast estimator (MCE), the limiting variance having been identified explicitly; we furthermore establish consistency and asymptotic normality of a simplified minimum constrast estimator (SMCE), which is however not in general efficient. These results are then extended to the case of high-frequency observations under a condition restricting the rate at which the number of observations may grow vis-à-vis the separation of scales. Numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Statistical Inference for Perturbed Multiscale Dynamical Systems

We study statistical inference for small-noise-perturbed multiscale dynamical systems. We prove consistency, asymptotic normality, and convergence of all scaled moments of an appropriately-constructed maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a parameter of interest, identifying precisely its limiting variance. We allow full dependence of coefficients on both slow and fast processes, which take values in the full Euclidean space; coefficients in the equation for the slow process need not be bounded and there is no assumption of periodic dependence. The results provide a theoretical basis for calibration of small-noise-perturbed multiscale dynamical systems. Data from numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the theory.

math.PR↗