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Siru Zhong

Publications and source records attributed to Siru Zhong.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

CompKV: Compensation-Aware KV Selection for Long-Context LLM Inference

Despite their strong performance, large language models (LLMs) are bottlenecked by KV cache memory traffic during long-context inference. Sparse attention is widely used to accelerate LLM inference by computing exact attention over a selected subset of tokens. To recover the contribution of tokens excluded from exact attention, recent methods apply coarse-grained compensation to the omitted attention tail. However, existing methods typically select tokens based on attention mass and only then compensate for the unselected tokens. This decoupled design overlooks their interaction: selection should prioritize tokens that would leave the largest compensation error if omitted. To address this limitation, we introduce CompKV, the first compensation-aware sparse attention framework that divides tokens into blocks and explicitly optimizes selection for the downstream compensation mechanism. Our theoretical analysis shows that the residual left by block-level mean compensation is governed by both block attention mass and within-block logit variation. We approximate this residual using compact block-level statistics, yielding a deployable selection criterion. We further develop an efficient asynchronous implementation. Experiments on RULER and LongBench-Pro show that CompKV performs best among the evaluated sparse baselines while delivering up to a $6.85\times$ self-attention speedup over full attention.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

PREM: Prefix-Steered Recurrent Memory for Long-Video Understanding

Long-video understanding must capture transient visual evidence under strict token budgets, yet existing methods compress frames, append memory tokens, or alter internal key-value (KV) caches. We introduce Prefix-Steered Recurrent Memory (PREM), a memory-token-free framework for frozen vision-language models (VLMs). PREM separates video ingestion from query answering: a recurrent writer distills visual streams into a compact 256 KiB multi-slot associative state, while a question-conditioned readout adds memory-derived key/value (K/V) steering modulations to existing non-visual prompt prefixes during prefill. This enables write-once, query-many inference without extra prompt tokens or decoding recurrence. Across six long-video benchmarks in offline and streaming end-of-stream settings, PREM consistently outperforms frozen baselines at every evaluated visual budget. Under a constrained budget of 16 frames, PREM improves macro-average accuracy by 3.06% on Qwen2.5-VL-3B, with gains of 11.0% on action antonym identification and 9.9% on localized needle retrieval. These gains require tuning 0.24% of backbone parameters at 0.03 GiB of peak GPU memory overhead.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

EarthVerse: Benchmarking Scientific Agents Across Dynamic Earth Systems and Natural Hazards

Earth-system analysis reconstructs changing physical processes from observations that differ in source, scale, timing, and modality. Natural hazards make this work consequential because incomplete evidence can change estimates of severity, exposure, and mechanism. We introduce EarthVerse, a benchmark that evaluates scientific agents through package-scoped investigations. Its 405 reproducible tasks are grounded in 199 documented events and 19 hazard families. Agents inspect heterogeneous event packages, choose compatible evidence, execute transparent calculations, reconcile source differences, and preserve provenance in the final answer. We provide executable ground truth that decomposes each task into fine-grained answer units, together with task-specific rubrics that assess the supporting research process while allowing multiple valid paths. We evaluate 25 model and agent systems under a controlled tool-using protocol, then use controlled studies to locate failures in evidence access, tool selection, memory, reasoning, interaction, and scientific execution. Across systems, the best mean answer-unit accuracy is 84.65%, while the highest Strict@95 is only 34.81%. The gap shows that current agents often complete individual steps without maintaining a consistent chain across evidence, scales, units, calculations, and physical interpretation. EarthVerse provides a reproducible basis for measuring end-to-end scientific reliability in dynamic Earth systems.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

LiveHouse-TS: An Open-world Living Benchmark for Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as a highly promising paradigm for cross-domain zero-shot forecasting. However, existing evaluation protocols predominantly rely on static benchmarks with fixed historical test windows. While these benchmarks provide a valuable baseline snapshot, they evaluate an average performance on a fixed history, failing to capture how models behave in continuously evolving real-world environments characterized by seasonal variations, distribution shifts, and unexpected events. To bridge this gap, we introduce LiveHouse-TS, the first open-world living benchmark infrastructure for TSFMs. By evaluating models prequentially on real future data in open-world environments, LiveHouse-TS shifts time series benchmarking from snapshot accuracy to continuous temporal validity. Rather than acting as a one-off leaderboard, our infrastructure serves as a continuous time series infrastructure designed to explore vital, long-term scientific questions: Can model rankings be maintained over the long term? Which models remain genuinely robust under distribution shifts? Extensive streaming evaluations across 11 domains with 17 datasets demonstrate that static rankings undergo a dramatic reshuffling under a live protocol.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Ground, Cover, and Refine: Evidence-Centric Frame Selection for Long-Video Question Answering

Long-video question answering requires identifying sparse yet critical evidence from videos containing thousands of frames under a constrained visual-token budget. Existing methods either select query-aware frames in a single pass or rely on timestamped text solely as retrieval guidance, leading to two key limitations. First, selected frames tend to cluster around local relevance peaks, and once the budget is exhausted, omitted evidence cannot be recovered. Second, textual and visual evidence remain weakly aligned. We propose GCR, a training-free framework that casts fixed-budget frame selection as a joint evidence curation problem. Ground converts timestamped text into temporal events, selects query-relevant real frame anchors, and renders each event text onto its temporally aligned frame. Cover supplements grounded events with direct visual anchors for complementary visual evidence and applies global maximal marginal relevance to preserve diverse context. Refine revisits omitted temporal regions and replaces the weakest revisable context frame with a real-frame medoid---but only when the medoid offers greater evidence value. GCR maintains a fixed number of chronologically ordered frames and requires no VLM training or architectural modification. Experiments on LongVideoBench and Video-MME, across three 7B backbones and frame budgets of 8, 32, and 64, demonstrate consistent improvements in long-video QA. With the 7B LLaVA-OV backbone and 32 frames, GCR achieves 64.25% and 62.15% on the two benchmarks, outperforming the strongest reproduced baselines by 2.54 and 1.93 percentage points, respectively.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

STKAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Real-world traffic data exhibit heterogeneous spatial correlations and nonlinear temporal dynamics, posing substantial challenges for accurate spatio-temporal forecasting. Existing approaches have developed increasingly sophisticated graph, attention, and decomposition architectures, while the influence of the underlying nonlinear function approximator has received comparatively less attention. In this work, we propose STKAN, a spatio-temporal forecasting architecture that introduces Taylor-polynomial Kolmogorov--Arnold Network modules into spatial and temporal token mixing. STKAN first constructs high-level spatial representations through a learnable soft node-group assignment mechanism, applies group-wise spatial mixing, and subsequently models temporal dependencies over the compressed sequence. Spatial and temporal self-attention layers are further employed to capture long-range interactions. Experiments on five traffic forecasting benchmarks show that STKAN achieves competitive performance and performs better than the evaluated MLP-based variant in the tested settings. These results suggest that the design of nonlinear function approximators can serve as a useful complement to architectural design in spatio-temporal forecasting.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

FARS: A Fully Automated Research System Deployed at Scale

Recent automated research systems show that language-model agents can generate hypotheses, run experiments, and write complete manuscripts, but most evidence still comes from selected examples, human-framed topics, or a few pre-defined research tasks. We present FARS (Fully Automated Research System), a fully automated AI-for-AI research system designed to operate across research topics at scale. FARS autonomously generates and advances projects through ideation, planning, experimentation, and writing, using stage-specific agents coordinated through a shared workspace that records proposals, code, logs, results, and manuscripts. In its first public deployment, FARS produced 166 complete research papers spanning 67 fine-grained AI/ML topics while preserving intermediate artifacts as an auditable corpus rather than a curated set of successes. We evaluate this corpus with 282 structured reviews from volunteer reviewers covering 140 papers, including overall ratings, sub-scores, integrity checks, and LLM-use disclosure. The reviews indicate that FARS can produce review-worthy and occasionally strong AI/ML research artifacts in a large-scale public deployment, while also exposing recurring failure modes in narrow experimental scope, methodological limitations, and integrity issues.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

TS-Memory: Plug-and-Play Memory for Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) achieve strong zero-shot forecasting through large-scale pre-training, but adapting them to downstream domains under distribution shift remains challenging. Existing solutions face a trade-off: Parametric Adaptation can cause catastrophic forgetting and requires costly multi-domain maintenance, while Non-Parametric Retrieval improves forecasts but incurs high inference latency due to datastore search. We propose Parametric Memory Distillation and implement it as TS-Memory, a lightweight memory adapter that augments frozen TSFMs. TS-Memory is trained in two stages. First, we construct an offline, retrieval-leakage-safe kNN teacher that synthesizes confidence-aware quantile targets from retrieved futures. Second, we distill this retrieval-induced distributional correction into a lightweight memory adapter via confidence-gated supervision. During inference, TS-Memory fuses memory and backbone predictions with constant-time overhead, enabling retrieval-free deployment. Experiments across diverse TSFMs and benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in both point and probabilistic forecasting over representative adaptation methods, with efficiency comparable to the frozen backbone. Code: https://github.com/sisuolv/TS-Memory.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

DropoutTS: Sample-Adaptive Dropout for Robust Time Series Forecasting

Deep time series models are vulnerable to noisy data ubiquitous in real-world applications. Existing robustness strategies either prune data or rely on costly prior quantification, failing to balance effectiveness and efficiency. In this paper, we introduce DropoutTS, a model-agnostic plugin that shifts the paradigm from "what" to learn to "how much" to learn. DropoutTS employs a Sample-Adaptive Dropout mechanism: leveraging spectral sparsity to efficiently quantify instance-level noise via reconstruction residuals, it dynamically calibrates model learning capacity by mapping noise to adaptive dropout rates - selectively suppressing spurious fluctuations while preserving fine-grained fidelity. Extensive experiments across diverse noise regimes and open benchmarks show DropoutTS consistently boosts superior backbones' performance, delivering advanced robustness with negligible parameter overhead and no architectural modifications. Our code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/DropoutTS.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Perceive, Route and Modulate: Dynamic Pattern Recalibration for Time Series Forecasting

Local temporal patterns in real-world time series continuously shift, rendering globally shared transformations suboptimal. Current deep forecasting models, despite their scale and complexity, rely on fixed weight matrices applied uniformly to all temporal tokens. This creates a static pattern response: models settle into a compromised average, unable to adapt to changing local dynamics. We introduce Dynamic Pattern Recalibration (DPR), a backbone-agnostic mechanism that resolves this via token-level recalibration. Through a lightweight "Perceive-Route-Modulate" pipeline, DPR computes a soft-routing distribution over a learned basis of adaptive response patterns, generating a time-aware modulation vector that recalibrates hidden states via a residual Hadamard product. As a backbone-agnostic adapter, DPR enhances forecasting across diverse architectures with minimal overhead, confirming it addresses a general bottleneck. As a minimalist standalone model, DPRNet achieves competitive performance across 12 benchmarks, validating dynamic recalibration against macroscopic parameter scaling.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Uno-Orchestra: Parsimonious Agent Routing via Selective Delegation

Large language model (LLM) multi-agent systems typically rely on rigid orchestration, committing either to flat per-query routing or to hand-engineered task decomposition, so decomposition depth, worker choice, and inference budget are not jointly optimized under one objective. We introduce Uno-Orchestra, a unified orchestration policy that selectively decomposes a task and dispatches each subtask to an admissible (model, primitive) pair, with both decisions learned together from curated RL trajectories grounded in real worker interactions. Against 22 baselines on a 13-benchmark suite spanning math, code, knowledge, long-context, and agentic tool-use, Uno-Orchestra reaches 77.0% macro pass@1, roughly 16% above the strongest workflow baseline, at roughly an order of magnitude lower per-query cost, advancing the accuracy-efficiency frontier of selective delegation.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Breaking the Regional Barrier: Inductive Semantic Topology Learning for Worldwide Air Quality Forecasting

Global air quality forecasting grapples with extreme spatial heterogeneity and the poor generalization of existing transductive models to unseen regions. To tackle this, we propose OmniAir, a semantic topology learning framework tailored for global station-level prediction. By encoding invariant physical environmental attributes into generalizable station identities and dynamically constructing adaptive sparse topologies, our approach effectively captures long-range non-Euclidean correlations and physical diffusion patterns across unevenly distributed global networks. We further curate WorldAir, a massive dataset covering over 7,800 stations worldwide. Extensive experiments show that OmniAir achieves state-of-the-art performance against 18 baselines, maintaining high efficiency and scalability with speeds nearly 10 times faster than existing models, while effectively bridging the monitoring gap in data-sparse regions.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Learning to Factorize and Adapt: A Versatile Approach Toward Universal Spatio-Temporal Foundation Models

Spatio-Temporal (ST) Foundation Models (STFMs) promise cross-dataset generalization, yet joint ST pretraining is computationally expensive and grapples with the heterogeneity of domain-specific spatial patterns. Substantially extending our preliminary conference version, we present FactoST-v2, an enhanced factorized framework redesigned for full weight transfer and arbitrary-length generalization. FactoST-v2 decouples universal temporal learning from domain-specific spatial adaptation. The first stage pretrains a minimalist encoder-only backbone using randomized sequence masking to capture invariant temporal dynamics, enabling probabilistic quantile prediction across variable horizons. The second stage employs a streamlined adapter to rapidly inject spatial awareness via meta adaptive learning and prompting. Comprehensive evaluations across diverse domains demonstrate that FactoST-v2 achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with linear efficiency - significantly outperforming existing foundation models in zero-shot and few-shot scenarios while rivaling domain-specific expert baselines. This factorized paradigm offers a practical, scalable path toward truly universal STFMs. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/FactoST.

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arXiv2025

OccamVTS: Distilling Vision Models to 1% Parameters for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is fundamental to diverse applications, with recent approaches leverage large vision models (LVMs) to capture temporal patterns through visual representations. We reveal that while vision models enhance forecasting performance, 99% of their parameters are unnecessary for time series tasks. Through cross-modal analysis, we find that time series align with low-level textural features but not high-level semantics, which can impair forecasting accuracy. We propose OccamVTS, a knowledge distillation framework that extracts only the essential 1% of predictive information from LVMs into lightweight networks. Using pre-trained LVMs as privileged teachers, OccamVTS employs pyramid-style feature alignment combined with correlation and feature distillation to transfer beneficial patterns while filtering out semantic noise. Counterintuitively, this aggressive parameter reduction improves accuracy by eliminating overfitting to irrelevant visual features while preserving essential temporal patterns. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that OccamVTS consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with only 1% of the original parameters, particularly excelling in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Time-VLM: Exploring Multimodal Vision-Language Models for Augmented Time Series Forecasting

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose \method, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/ICML25-TimeVLM.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2025

Vision-Enhanced Time Series Forecasting via Latent Diffusion Models

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful frameworks for generating high-quality images. While recent studies have explored their application to time series forecasting, these approaches face significant challenges in cross-modal modeling and transforming visual information effectively to capture temporal patterns. In this paper, we propose LDM4TS, a novel framework that leverages the powerful image reconstruction capabilities of latent diffusion models for vision-enhanced time series forecasting. Instead of introducing external visual data, we are the first to use complementary transformation techniques to convert time series into multi-view visual representations, allowing the model to exploit the rich feature extraction capabilities of the pre-trained vision encoder. Subsequently, these representations are reconstructed using a latent diffusion model with a cross-modal conditioning mechanism as well as a fusion module. Experimental results demonstrate that LDM4TS outperforms various specialized forecasting models for time series forecasting tasks.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2025

UrbanVLP: Multi-Granularity Vision-Language Pretraining for Urban Socioeconomic Indicator Prediction

Urban socioeconomic indicator prediction aims to infer various metrics related to sustainable development in diverse urban landscapes using data-driven methods. However, prevalent pretrained models, particularly those reliant on satellite imagery, face dual challenges. Firstly, concentrating solely on macro-level patterns from satellite data may introduce bias, lacking nuanced details at micro levels, such as architectural details at a place. Secondly, the text generated by the precursor work UrbanCLIP, which fully utilizes the extensive knowledge of LLMs, frequently exhibits issues such as hallucination and homogenization, resulting in a lack of reliable quality. In response to these issues, we devise a novel framework entitled UrbanVLP based on Vision-Language Pretraining. Our UrbanVLP seamlessly integrates multi-granularity information from both macro (satellite) and micro (street-view) levels, overcoming the limitations of prior pretrained models. Moreover, it introduces automatic text generation and calibration, providing a robust guarantee for producing high-quality text descriptions of urban imagery. Rigorous experiments conducted across six socioeconomic indicator prediction tasks underscore its superior performance.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2024

Cross Space and Time: A Spatio-Temporal Unitized Model for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Predicting spatio-temporal traffic flow presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between spatial and temporal factors. Existing approaches often address these dimensions in isolation, neglecting their critical interdependencies. In this paper, we introduce the Spatio-Temporal Unitized Model (STUM), a unified framework designed to capture both spatial and temporal dependencies while addressing spatio-temporal heterogeneity through techniques such as distribution alignment and feature fusion. It also ensures both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Central to STUM is the Adaptive Spatio-temporal Unitized Cell (ASTUC), which utilizes low-rank matrices to seamlessly store, update, and interact with space, time, as well as their correlations. Our framework is also modular, allowing it to integrate with various spatio-temporal graph neural networks through components such as backbone models, feature extractors, residual fusion blocks, and predictive modules to collectively enhance forecasting outcomes. Experimental results across multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that STUM consistently improves prediction performance with minimal computational cost. These findings are further supported by hyperparameter optimization, pre-training analysis, and result visualization. We provide our source code for reproducibility at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STUM-E4F0.

cs.AI↗