arXiv subjects

Siyang Gao

Publications and source records attributed to Siyang Gao.

44 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Evaluating Factual Consistency of Summaries with Large Language Models

Detecting factual errors in summaries has been an important and challenging subject in summarization research. Inspired by the emergent ability of large language models (LLMs), we explore evaluating factual consistency of summaries by directly prompting LLMs. We present a comprehensive empirical study to assess the ability of LLMs as factual consistency evaluators, which consists of (1) analyzing different LLMs such as the GPT model series and Flan-T5; (2) investigating a variety of prompting methods including vanilla prompting, chain-of-thought prompting, and a sentence-by-sentence prompting method to tackle long summaries; and (3) evaluating on diverse summaries generated by multiple summarization systems, ranging from pre-transformer methods to SOTA pretrained models. Our experiments demonstrate that prompting LLMs is able to outperform the previous best factuality systems in all settings, by up to 12.2 absolute points in terms of the binary classification accuracy on inconsistency detection.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

A Contextual Ranking and Selection Method for Personalized Medicine

Problem definition: Personalized medicine (PM) seeks the best treatment for each patient among a set of available treatment methods. Since a specific treatment does not work well on all patients, traditionally, the best treatment was selected based on the doctor's personal experience and expertise, which is subject to human errors. In the meantime, stochastic models have been well developed in the literature for a lot of major diseases. This gives rise to a simulation-based solution for PM, which uses the simulation tool to evaluate the performance for pairs of treatment and patient biometric characteristics, and based on that, selects the best treatment for each patient characteristics. Methodology/results: In this research, we extend the ranking and selection (R&S) model in simulation-based decision making to solving PM. The biometric characteristics of a patient is treated as a context for R&S, and we call it contextual ranking and selection (CR&S). We consider two formulations of CR&S with small and large context spaces respectively and develop new techniques for solving them and identifying the rate-optimal budget allocation rules. Based on them, two selection algorithms are proposed, which can be shown to be numerically superior via a set of tests on abstract and real-world examples. Managerial implications: This research provides a systematic way of conducting simulation-based decision-making for PM. To improve the overall decision quality for the possible contexts, more simulation efforts should be devoted to contexts in which it is difficult to distinguish between the best treatment and non-best treatments, and our results quantify the optimal tradeoff of the simulation efforts between the pairs of contexts and treatments.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Convergence Rate Analysis for Optimal Computing Budget Allocation Algorithms

Ordinal optimization (OO) is a widely-studied technique for optimizing discrete-event dynamic systems (DEDS). It evaluates the performance of the system designs in a finite set by sampling and aims to correctly make ordinal comparison of the designs. A well-known method in OO is the optimal computing budget allocation (OCBA). It builds the optimality conditions for the number of samples allocated to each design, and the sample allocation that satisfies the optimality conditions is shown to asymptotically maximize the probability of correct selection for the best design. In this paper, we investigate two popular OCBA algorithms. With known variances for samples of each design, we characterize their convergence rates with respect to different performance measures. We first demonstrate that the two OCBA algorithms achieve the optimal convergence rate under measures of probability of correct selection and expected opportunity cost. It fills the void of convergence analysis for OCBA algorithms. Next, we extend our analysis to the measure of cumulative regret, a main measure studied in the field of machine learning. We show that with minor modification, the two OCBA algorithms can reach the optimal convergence rate under cumulative regret. It indicates the potential of broader use of algorithms designed based on the OCBA optimality conditions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Asymptotic Optimality of Myopic Ranking and Selection Procedures

Ranking and selection (R&S) is a popular model for studying discrete-event dynamic systems. It aims to select the best design (the design with the largest mean performance) from a finite set, where the mean of each design is unknown and has to be learned by samples. Great research efforts have been devoted to this problem in the literature for developing procedures with superior empirical performance and showing their optimality. In these efforts, myopic procedures were popular. They select the best design using a 'naive' mechanism of iteratively and myopically improving an approximation of the objective measure. Although they are based on simple heuristics and lack theoretical support, they turned out highly effective, and often achieved competitive empirical performance compared to procedures that were proposed later and shown to be asymptotically optimal. In this paper, we theoretically analyze these myopic procedures and prove that they also satisfy the optimality conditions of R&S, just like some other popular R&S methods. It explains the good performance of myopic procedures in various numerical tests, and provides good insight into the structure and theoretical development of efficient R&S procedures.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Convergence Analysis of Stochastic Kriging-Assisted Simulation with Random Covariates

We consider performing simulation experiments in the presence of covariates. Here, covariates refer to some input information other than system designs to the simulation model that can also affect the system performance. To make decisions, decision makers need to know the covariate values of the problem. Traditionally in simulation-based decision making, simulation samples are collected after the covariate values are known; in contrast, as a new framework, simulation with covariates starts the simulation before the covariate values are revealed, and collects samples on covariate values that might appear later. Then, when the covariate values are revealed, the collected simulation samples are directly used to predict the desired results. This framework significantly reduces the decision time compared to the traditional way of simulation. In this paper, we follow this framework and suppose there are a finite number of system designs. We adopt the metamodel of stochastic kriging (SK) and use it to predict the system performance of each design and the best design. The goal is to study how fast the prediction errors diminish with the number of covariate points sampled. This is a fundamental problem in simulation with covariates and helps quantify the relationship between the offline simulation efforts and the online prediction accuracy. Particularly, we adopt measures of the maximal integrated mean squared error (IMSE) and integrated probability of false selection (IPFS) for assessing errors of the system performance and the best design predictions. Then, we establish convergence rates for the two measures under mild conditions. Last, these convergence behaviors are illustrated numerically using test examples.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

On the Finite-Time Performance of the Knowledge Gradient Algorithm

The knowledge gradient (KG) algorithm is a popular and effective algorithm for the best arm identification (BAI) problem. Due to the complex calculation of KG, theoretical analysis of this algorithm is difficult, and existing results are mostly about the asymptotic performance of it, e.g., consistency, asymptotic sample allocation, etc. In this research, we present new theoretical results about the finite-time performance of the KG algorithm. Under independent and normally distributed rewards, we derive bounds for the sample allocation of the algorithm. With these bounds, existing asymptotic results become simple corollaries. Furthermore, we derive upper and lower bounds for the probability of error and simple regret of the algorithm, and show the performance of the algorithm for the multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem. These developments not only extend the existing analysis of the KG algorithm, but can also be used to analyze other improvement-based algorithms. Last, we use numerical experiments to compare the bounds we derive and the performance of the KG algorithm.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Contextual Ranking and Selection with Gaussian Processes

In many real world problems, we are faced with the problem of selecting the best among a finite number of alternatives, where the best alternative is determined based on context specific information. In this work, we study the contextual Ranking and Selection problem under a finite-alternative-finite-context setting, where we aim to find the best alternative for each context. We use a separate Gaussian process to model the reward for each alternative, and derive the large deviations rate function for both the expected and worst-case contextual probability of correct selection. We propose the GP-C-OCBA sampling policy, which uses the Gaussian process posterior to iteratively allocate observations to maximize the rate function. We prove its consistency and show that it achieves the optimal convergence rate under the assumption of a non-informative prior. Numerical experiments show that our algorithm is highly competitive in terms of sampling efficiency, while having significantly smaller computational overhead.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Efficient Simulation Budget Allocation for Subset Selection Using Regression Metamodels

This research considers the ranking and selection (R&S) problem of selecting the optimal subset from a finite set of alternative designs. Given the total simulation budget constraint, we aim to maximize the probability of correctly selecting the top-m designs. In order to improve the selection efficiency, we incorporate the information from across the domain into regression metamodels. In this research, we assume that the mean performance of each design is approximately quadratic. To achieve a better fit of this model, we divide the solution space into adjacent partitions such that the quadratic assumption can be satisfied within each partition. Using the large deviation theory, we propose an approximately optimal simulation budget allocation rule in the presence of partitioned domains. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our approach can enhance the simulation efficiency significantly.

math.OC↗