arXiv subjects

Slaven Kincic

Publications and source records attributed to Slaven Kincic.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Assessing Risks of Hydro-Generator Shaft Fatigue from Data Center Load Oscillations

Large AI data center loads can introduce persistent sub-synchronous active-power oscillations that may impact nearby generators by exciting torsional modes and increasing shaft stress. This paper presents a model-based framework for evaluating hydro-generator shaft fatigue risk under oscillatory loading. An electromagnetic transient simulation model is developed using a two-mass turbine-generator shaft representation with parameters from real-world generation units and a configurable AI data center load. The risk assessment is performed in two stages. First, a network transfer function quantifies the propagation of load oscillations from the data center point of interconnection to the hydro-generator terminal. A plant transfer function then characterizes the resulting shaft torque amplification. A frequency-scan approach identifies resonance regions and evaluates torque amplification at individual forcing frequencies. Parametric studies show that amplification is strongly affected by generator-to-turbine inertia ratio and torsional damping. Lower inertia ratios shift torsional modes to lower frequencies and increase amplification, indicating that some Kaplan-type units may be more susceptible than comparable Francis or Pelton units. Reduced damping further increases resonant response and fatigue exposure. A simplified fatigue assessment based on S--N curves and the Goodman diagram relates simulated torque response to mechanical integrity. The resulting Goodman safety factor provides a practical metric for evaluating the impact of persistent AI data center oscillations on hydro-generator service life and supports interconnection studies, oscillation limits, and plant-level monitoring strategies.

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arXiv2026

Modeling Gaps in Hydropower Cascading System Models: A Systematic Review of Rule-Based Formulations

The coordination of cascading hydropower systems represents a fundamental challenge in modern energy systems engineering, requiring a sophisticated balance between multi-reservoir physics, stringent environmental regulations, and dynamic market participation. As intermittent energy sources increase, the transition to high-fidelity hydropower modeling has become a core requirement for ensuring power system reliability, long-term energy resilience and affordability. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of 131 seminal articles through the exclusive lens of optimization-based approaches, intentionally omitting pure simulation and heuristic methods to focus on rigorous mathematical formulations. A generalized 10-equation mathematical framework is established as a formal baseline, capturing the full physical and hydraulic behavior of cascading systems, including spatiotemporal inflow routing, storage-to-elevation relationships, head-dependent power generation, and prohibited operating zones. Each article is evaluated against every equation of this Standard Model in a systematic census documenting which physical relationships are included, simplified, or omitted, providing an empirical measure of modeling fidelity across the field. Modeling simplifications are evaluated through the lens of grid reliability rather than water management performance alone. The review makes a focused technical case for mixed-integer linear programming with piecewise linear approximations as the optimal balance between physical accuracy and computational tractability, highlighting recent optimal regression techniques that minimize combinatorial overhead. Finally, a bibliometric analysis of solver usage identifies the near-absence of high-performance open-source solvers as a critical reproducibility barrier, and a promising avenue for broader adoption of high-fidelity cascading hydropower models.

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arXiv2024

Hy-DAT: A Tool to Address Hydropower Modeling Gaps Using Interdependency, Efficiency Curves, and Unit Dispatch Models

As the power system continues to be flooded with intermittent resources, it becomes more important to accurately assess the role of hydro and its impact on the power grid. While hydropower generation has been studied for decades, dependency of power generation on water availability and constraints in hydro operation are not well represented in power system models used in the planning and operation of large-scale interconnection studies. There are still multiple modeling gaps that need to be addressed; if not, they can lead to inaccurate operation and planning reliability studies, and consequently to unintentional load shedding or even blackouts. As a result, it is very important that hydropower is represented correctly in both steady-state and dynamic power system studies. In this paper, we discuss the development and use of the Hydrological Dispatch and Analysis Tool (Hy-DAT) as an interactive graphical user interface, that uses a novel methodology to address the hydropower modeling gaps like water availability and interdependency using a database and algorithms to generate accurate representative models for power system simulation.

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arXiv2023

Gaps in Representations of Hydropower Generation in Steady-State and Dynamic Models

In the evolving power system, where new renewable resources continually displace conventional generation, conventional hydropower resources can be an important asset that helps to maintain reliability and flexibility. Varying climatic patterns do affect the operational pattern of hydropower. This would potentially play a vital role in meeting and delivering energy and meeting climate policy needs. Hydropower is one of the oldest forms of renewable energy resources, however, its dependency on water availability and other constraints are not well represented in power system steady state and dynamic models. This leads to multiple gaps in operations planning especially due to high intermittent renewable generation. Operating constraints and lack of high-quality data often become a barrier to hydropower modeling which leads to inconsistencies in reliability and operational planning studies resulting in unintentional blackouts or unforeseen situations. This paper identifies some of the gaps in hydro-based generation representation in steady-state and dynamic models and provides recommendations for their mitigation.

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