arXiv subjects

Sofia Ruiz-Suarez

Publications and source records attributed to Sofia Ruiz-Suarez.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Likelihood-based inference for the Gompertz model with Poisson errors

Population dynamics models play an important role in a number of fields, such as actuarial science, demography, and ecology, as they help explain past fluctuations and predict future population. The accuracy of these models is often influenced by the uncertainty introduced by sampling error. Statistical inference for these models can be difficult when, in addition to the process' inherent stochasticity, one also needs to account for sampling error. Ignoring the latter can lead to biases in the estimation, which in turn can produce erroneous conclusions about the system's behavior. The Gompertz model is widely used to infer population size dynamics, but a full likelihood approach can be computationally prohibitive when sampling error is accounted for. We close this gap by developing efficient computational tools for statistical inference in the Gompertz model with Poisson sampling error based on the full likelihood. The approach is illustrated in both the Bayesian and frequentist paradigms. Performance is illustrated with simulations and data analysis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Hidden Markov and semi-Markov models: When and why are these models useful for classifying states in time series data?

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and their extensions have proven to be powerful tools for classification of observations that stem from systems with temporal dependence as they take into account that observations close in time are likely generated from the same state (i.e.\ class). When information on the classes of the observations is available in advanced, supervised methods can be applied. In this paper, we provide details for the implementation of four models for classification in a supervised learning context: HMMs, hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs), autoregressive-HMMs, and autoregressive-HSMMs. Using simulations, we study the classification performance under various degrees of model misspecification to characterize when it would be important to extend a basic HMM to an HSMM. As an application of these techniques we use the models to classify accelerometer data from Merino sheep to distinguish between four different behaviors of interest. In particular in the field of movement ecology, collection of fine-scale animal movement data over time to identify behavioral states has become ubiquitous, necessitating models that can account for the dependence structure in the data. We demonstrate that when the aim is to conduct classification, various degrees of model misspecification of the proposed model may not impede good classification performance unless there is high overlap between the state-dependent distributions, that is, unless the observation distributions of the different states are difficult to differentiate.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Approximate Bayesian inference for a "steps and turns" continuous-time random walk observed at regular time intervals

The study of animal movement is challenging because it is a process modulated by many factors acting at different spatial and temporal scales. Several models have been proposed which differ primarily in the temporal conceptualization, namely continuous and discrete time formulations. Naturally, animal movement occurs in continuous time but we tend to observe it at fixed time intervals. To account for the temporal mismatch between observations and movement decisions, we used a state-space model where movement decisions (steps and turns) are made in continuous time. The movement process is then observed at regular time intervals. As the likelihood function of this state-space model turned out to be complex to calculate yet simulating data is straightforward, we conduct inference using a few variations of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). We explore the applicability of these methods as a function of the discrepancy between the temporal scale of the observations and that of the movement process in a simulation study. We demonstrate the application of this model to a real trajectory of a sheep that was reconstructed in high resolution using information from magnetometer and GPS devices. Our results suggest that accurate estimates can be obtained when the observations are less than 5 times the average time between changes in movement direction. The state-space model used here allowed us to connect the scales of the observations and movement decisions in an intuitive and easy to interpret way. Our findings underscore the idea that the time scale at which animal movement decisions are made needs to be considered when designing data collection protocols, and that sometimes high-frequency data may not be necessary to have good estimates of certain movement processes.

stat.ME↗