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Sophia R. Flury

Publications and source records attributed to Sophia R. Flury.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Recovering Ionizing Photon Escape and Galaxy Scaling Relations in the LzLCS via Si II and C II Absorption Lines and Mock Spectra from a Radiation-Hydrodynamic Simulation

In this work, we use a radiation-hydrodynamic simulation of a single $\sim10^9M_{\odot}$ virtual galaxy to study Si II and C II line profiles seen in stacked HST/COS spectra of 58 galaxies from the LzLCS+ sample. We compare stacks across three mass bins ($M_{\star} \leq 10^8M_{\odot}$, $10^8$-$10^9M_{\odot}$, and $M_{\star} \geq 10^9M_{\odot}$) and three stacking methods (mean, median, and weighted average) to a library of 22,500 mock spectra. We investigate whether the simulation can accurately mimic real gas features, reveal clear trends with galaxy properties, and provide indirect estimates of the ionizing escape fraction ($f_{\rm esc}$). We find reasonable agreement between simulated and observed profiles ($χ^2 < 1$) across all mass regimes. Notably, extracting line properties such as EW and $R_f$ from best-fit mock profiles provides a robust alternative to direct empirical trends, particularly in the low-S/N regime where noise frequently biases results. The simulation-based LIS features, although derived from a single virtual object, exhibit clear correlations with $M_{\star}$, SFR, and $f_{\rm esc}$, mirroring established empirical scaling relations. We find that the best-matching mock spectra predominantly originate from simulation time steps corresponding to peak UV luminosity and intense starburst phases, suggesting that these active periods generate the ISM diversity observed in star-forming galaxies. Finally, simulation-based estimates ($f_{\rm esc}^{\rm virtual}$) reproduce the observed mass-dependent trends in $f_{\rm esc}$ and are in close agreement with the average $f_{\rm esc}$ of the generated stacks. This simulation-based framework establishes a relevant methodology for interpreting spectroscopic observations, including inferring $f_{\rm esc}$ and characterizing physical scaling relations, in high-redshift galaxies from the Epoch of Reionization.

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The Evolution of Low-Ionization Electron Densities in Galaxies Across Cosmic Epochs

We investigate the low-ionization electron density in the interstellar medium of galaxies across $0$$<$$z$$<$$8$, derived with the [O II]$λ\lambda3727,3730$ and [S II]$λ\lambda6718,6733$ doublets, using both deep JWST NIRCam/grism and NIRSpec/MSA spectroscopy. Along with ancillary density samples from the literature at $0$$<$$z$$<$$6$, we assemble three samples containing a total of 703 galaxies spanning $3.7$$<$$z$$<$$7.8$ at $\langle z\rangle\sim5.6$; 691 galaxies in the luminosity-complete NIRCam/grism programs CONGRESS and FRESCO at $\langle z\rangle \sim4.3$ and $\langle z\rangle\sim5.3$, respectively, and 12 galaxies with high-resolution NIRSpec/MSA spectra from the GO 1871 and GLASS programs. We find median electron densities of $n_{\rm{e}}$[S II]$=$$463^{+281}_{-203}~{\rm{cm}}^{-3}$ for CONGRESS, $n_{\rm{e}}$[S II]$=$$301^{+388}_{-206}~{\rm{cm}}^{-3}$ for FRESCO, and $n_{\rm{e}}$[O II]$=$$202^{+145}_{-102}~{\rm{cm}}^{-3}$ for the NIRSpec/MSA sample. The median low-ionization $n_{\rm{e}}$ increases from $z= 0$ to $z=4$, in agreement with previous studies and those using JWST observations. However, beyond $z\sim4$ median $n_{\rm{e}}$ begins to deviate from a monotonically increasing evolution with $z$. We find a positive, but shallow, correlation between O$_{32}$ (a proxy for the ionization parameter) and $n_{\rm{e}}$, while also confirming a positive correlation between O$_{32}$ and $z$. We suggest that these trends are possibly due to an evolving ISM gas density and ionization structure, and propose a toy model where the gas clumping evolves with $z$ to explain the observed density and ionization variations.

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OutLines: Modeling Spectral Lines from Winds, Bubbles, and Outflows

Studies of kinematics and geometry of outflowing gas rely on modeling features in integrated spectra using empirical quantiles or fitting multiple Gaussian or Voigt profiles. Such methods can miss key underlying physics and even lead to spurious interpretations of observations. To address this problem, we present the public python code OutLines, which predicts spectral emission and absorption line profiles produced by winds, bubbles, and outflows. By design, OutLines is phenomenologically and scale agnostic to bridge the gap between observations and simulations across a broad swath of astrophysics. The OutLines code accounts for differences in velocity field, density profile, and outflow geometries, making OutLines versatile for a wide variety of astrophysical phenomena. We demonstrate the wide applicability of OutLines by using the code to model line profiles in an H II region knot, super star clusters, a starburst galaxy, and an AGN. In each of these contexts, we illustrate how OutLines can illuminate key underlying physics in ways that improve scientific understanding and address important open questions in astronomy, including the key mechanisms in the baryon cycle, the evolution of H II regions and galaxies, and even Lyman continuum escape. OutLines will be a critical resource as massively multiplexed spectroscopic surveys with facilities like WEAVE and 4MOST come online, providing the means to probe feedback with deeper, higher resolution spectroscopy for unprecedented large samples of objects.

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Unprecedented Constraints on Gas Flows at High Redshift Using Deep JWST/NIRSpec Observations from the LyC22, EXCELS, and AURORA Surveys

We investigate how low-ionization gas flows in typical star-forming galaxies at $z\sim3$ depend on galaxy intrinsic properties and viewing angle. For this analysis we use JWST/NIRSpec observations of rest-frame near-UV Fe II and Mg II absorption, and rest-frame optical Na D absorption. This study combines galaxies from the LyC22, EXCELS, and AURORA surveys and contains 176, 197, and 315 galaxies, respectively, with Fe II, Mg II, and Na D coverage. Based on both individual and composite spectra, we find no statistically significant correlations between outflow velocity and galaxy properties. However, galaxies with detected outflows tend towards higher stellar masses, SFR, and $Σ_{\rm SFR}$ than those without outflows, suggesting that the two samples are not drawn from the same parent population. Finally, we additionally find that Mg II emission is preferentially detected in galaxies with lower stellar mass and $A_V$, and higher sSFR, consistent with conditions that favor the escape of resonantly scattered line and ionizing continuum radiation. We present the first evidence in $z\sim3$ star-forming galaxies that properties of the absorption lines depend on galaxy inclination, with more face-on systems showing stronger absorption and higher outflow velocities, while inflowing gas is more frequently detected in more highly inclined galaxies. These trends are consistent with observations at $z\lesssim1$ and predictions from cosmological simulations in which galactic winds are launched perpendicular to the galactic disks, while accretion occurs primarily along the disk plane.

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The short and long of iPhoton science for a boosted Hubble

Boosting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) will provide unique opportunities to carry out precursor science for the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). Chief among them are science cases for determining the properties of star forming galaxies that contribute to creating and sustaining the universe in a mostly ionized state. The farUV and nearUV spectroscopic capabilities of the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) and the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) are unique and unlikely to be replicated in the near future. Here we describe the benefits of a deep panchromatic spectroscopic effort to answer questions concerning the shape of the rest frame ionizing radiation escaping from star forming galaxies at modest redshift, capture crucial missing spectral regions, and explore whether their star formation histories are truly similar to the LyC leakers responsible for initiating and later sustaining the mostly-ionized-state of the universe. An observing program emphasizing multi-orbit observations, unencumbered by HST orbit competition and freely accessible to the wider ionizing photon (iPhoton) community, will catalyze crowd-sourced answers to these questions and offer a lower operating cost price point.

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Astronomical Advantages of a Boost Mission to Facilitate HST Science into the 2030s: Imaging the Circumgalactic Medium of Galaxies

We present the case for imaging ultraviolet line emission from highly ionized metals and HI Lya in the circumgalactic medium of galaxies, should the Hubble Space Telescope receive an orbital boost. Hubble can uniquely probe emission lines with ionization potentials between 13 and 200 electron-volts (Lya, CIV, OVI, NeVIII, etc). Spatial mapping of the diffuse material traced by these transitions is critical to constraining the physics of feedback and the energetic exchange between galaxies and their circumgalactic environments, as well as basic morphologies of the dominant mass component. Deep high-resolution mapping of these features will not be possible with any other observatory, existing or planned, until HWO is launched, which leaves HST as a critical observatory to test key science drivers for HWO. If HST receives an orbital boost, it can (a) provide the first statistical constraints on the spatial distribution of warm-hot CGM and (b) provide important avenues for science case development, as well as target/pointing selection, for HWO's upcoming spectroscopic facilities.

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Self-Consistent Direct Method for Chemical Abundances in High-z Galaxies with JWST

The unprecedented rest-frame UV and optical coverage provided by JWST enables simultaneous constraints on the electron density (n$_{\rm e}$) and temperature (T$_{\rm e}$) of ionized gas in galaxies at z>5. We present a self-consistent direct method based on multiple OIII]1661,66) and [OIII] ($λ$4363, and $λ$5007) transitions to characterize the physical conditions of the high-ionization zone. This new approach is insensitive to a wide range of n$_{\rm e}$ due to the high critical densities of the OIII] and [OIII] transitions. Applying this technique to six galaxies at z=5-9, we find electron densities up to n$_{\rm e}$$\sim 3\times 10^{5}$ cm$^{-3}$ and temperatures of T$_{\rm e}$ $\sim 20,000$ K in systems at $z>6$. Accounting for these self-consistent densities changes the derived T$_{\rm e}$ and modifies the inferred metallicities by up to 0.29 dex relative to previous estimates. We discuss the reported N/O overabundances in the high-$z$ galaxies from our sample, which arise entirely from the high N$^{3+}$/H$^{+}$ values inferred from NIV] lines. We point out that a T$_{\rm e}$-stratification, in which the N$^{3+}$ zone has a slightly higher T$_{\rm e}$ than T$_{\rm e}$([OIII]), could substantially reduce the inferred N/O. Quantitatively, if T$_{\rm e}$(N$^{3+}$) were 10\% higher than T$_{\rm e}$([OIII]), this could induce a systematic overestimation of N$^{3+}$/O$^{2+}$ of nearly 50\%. Classical N/O diagnostics such as N$^{+}$/O$^{+}$, due to their critical densities, can significantly impact the inferred N/O abundance in the presence of high-density gas, whereas N$^{2+}$/O$^{2+}$ place these galaxies closer to $z\sim0$ systems in the N/O-O/H plane. Future JWST programs with larger and more diverse samples will be essential to test the universality and robustness of these results.

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The Ly$α$ and Continuum Origins Survey. III. Investigating the Link between Galaxy Morphology, Merger Properties and LyC Escape

Characterizing the mechanisms and galaxy properties conducive to the emission and escape of ionizing (LyC) emission is necessary to accurately model the Epoch of Reionization, and identify the sources that powered it. The Ly$α$ and Continuum Origins Survey (LaCOS) is the first program to obtain uniform, multi-wavelength subkiloparsec imaging for a large sample (42) of galaxies observed in LyC and enable statistically robust studies between LyC and resolved galaxy properties. Here, we characterize the morphology and galaxy merger properties of LaCOS galaxies and investigate their connection with the escape fraction of LyC emission $f_{esc}^{LyC}$. We find strong anticorrelations between $f_{esc}^{LyC}$ and size ($r_{20}$, $r_{50}$, and $r_{80}$) measured in filters containing emission from star-forming regions, and with the asymmetry and clumpiness in F150LP, the bluest filter in our dataset, tracing UV continuum and Ly$α$. We find that $\geq48\%$ of LaCOS galaxies, and $\geq41\%$ of LaCOS LyC-emitters are visually classified as galaxy mergers. Galaxies robustly identified as mergers in LaCOS are at advanced stages of interaction, close to coalescence. The $f_{esc}^{LyC}$ properties of robust mergers and low-probability mergers cannot be differentiated statistically, and we only find significant difference between the two populations in terms of their of their sizes and LyC luminosity: robust mergers having larger values. We conclude that (i) $f_{esc}^{LyC}$ tends to be larger in galaxies with a small number of compact, centrally-located, UV-emitting star-forming regions, (ii) at advanced stages of interaction represent a sizable fraction of LyC-emitting samples at $z\sim0.3$, $z\sim0$, and (iii) mergers can facilitate the escape of LyC photons from galaxies.

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Finding He II: Testing Novel Models of Binary Populations across Cosmic Time

Our understanding of massive stars remains incomplete. Many high-z galaxies and nearby analogs exhibit strong He II emission, indicating an abundance of photons with energies >54.4 eV that standard single-star population models cannot explain. Recent studies show that binary evolution and non-solar abundance patterns are required to explain the distinct spectra of high-z galaxies observed by JWST. However, treatments of these properties vary drastically between models. We present the first results from a comparison of models with different treatments of binaries, including BPASS and novel stripped star models, with rest-UV-optical spectra of high-z galaxies' local analogs. This type of investigation can provide insights into which aspects of binary evolution are important to reproduce observations and identify priorities in ongoing efforts to improve models. By constraining the properties of massive stars at high redshift, we can learn about the processes at play in high-z galaxies and massive star evolution more broadly.

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CLASSY XIII. Cutting through the Clouds - Comparing Indirect Tracers of Ionizing Photon Escape

The Epoch of Reionization (EoR) provides critical insights into the role of early galaxies in shaping the ionization state of the universe. However, because of the opacity of the intergalactic medium, it is often not possible to make direct measurements of the ionizing photon escape fraction ($f_{\mathrm{esc}}^{\: \mathrm{LyC}}$) of high-redshift ($z \gtrsim 4$) galaxies. To explore the agreement and systematics of common indirect approaches, we applied six empirically calibrated diagnostics to predict $f_{\mathrm{esc}}^{\: \mathrm{LyC}}$ for the 45 nearby star-forming galaxies from the COS Legacy Spectroscopic SurveY (CLASSY). These methods- based on ultraviolet (UV) absorption lines, the UV continuum slope, Ly$α$ kinematics, a multivariate model, radiation-hydrodynamic simulations, and nebular emission line ratios- enable us to explore systematic differences between predictions and assess how galactic properties influence inferred LyC escape. Despite significant variations in method predictions, there is broad consistency in the resulting weak and strong LyC leaker classifications, with approximately half exhibiting predicted escape fractions $>$1%. We find evidence for two different pathways of LyC escape in nearby star-forming galaxies: (1) an early escape model driven by very young stellar populations, and (2) a delayed escape model that is consistent with supernova-driven outflows and time-dependent ISM clearing. The early escape model is favored among galaxies with a single, intense burst of recent star formation. In contrast, the delayed escape model is common among galaxies with more extended starburst histories. To interpret ionizing photon escape during the EoR, it will be necessary to recognize and understand this diversity in LyC escape mechanisms.

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CLASSY XII: Nitrogen Enrichment Shaped by Gas Density and Feedback

We investigate the chemical evolution of N/O using a sample of 45 local star-forming galaxies (SFGs) from the CLASSY survey. This sample spans a wide range of galaxy properties, with robust determinations of nitrogen and oxygen abundances via the direct-$T_{\rm e}$ method. We explore how N/O relates to density structure, stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), stellar age, compactness, and gas kinematics. In addition, we compare our results with those of galaxies at $z =2-10$ where N/O ratios were derived from optical or UV nitrogen lines, aiming to identify chemical enrichment pathways across cosmic time. Our analysis shows that the N/O-O/H relation in CLASSY galaxies aligns with the trends seen in local galaxies and extragalactic HII regions, and that galaxies at $z = 2-6$ exhibit similar N/O values, indicating no significant redshift evolution in N/O for a fixed metallicity. We identify a significant correlation between electron density $n_{\rm e}$([S II]) and N/O, suggesting that density structure contributes to the scatter in the N/O-O/H relation. The CLASSY galaxies with high SFRs or compact star formation show elevated N/O, though no strong correlation with stellar mass is found. We also find that high-velocity outflows (v$_{out}$ > 350 km/s) and low mass-loading factors are linked to elevated N/O, indicating that feedback plays a significant role. These results highlight the importance of density, star formation, and feedback from young stellar populations in shaping N/O enrichment and provide key insights for interpreting high-$z$ galaxies observed with JWST.

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Power-law Emission-line Wings and Radiation-Driven Superwinds in Local Lyman Continuum Emitters

We investigate broad emission-line wings, reaching $\leq 800\rm~km~s^{-1}$, observed in 26 galaxies with Lyman continuum (LyC) observations, primarily from the Low-redshift Lyman Continuum Survey (LzLCS). Using Magellan/MIKE, VLT/X-shooter, and WHT/ISIS high-resolution spectroscopy, we show that this fast gas appears to probe the dominant feedback mechanisms linked to LyC escape. We find that in 14 galaxies, the wings are best fit with power laws of slope $α\sim -3.5 \text{ to } -1.6$, with four others best fit by Gaussians of width $σ_{\rm BW} \sim 300~\rm km~s^{-1}$; the remaining eight show ambiguous wing morphologies. Gaussian wings are found only at low $O_{32}$ = $[\rm O~III]\lambda5007/[O~II]\lambda3726,3729$ and high metallicity, while power-law wings span the full range of these parameters. The general evidence suggests a dual-mode paradigm for LyC escape: radiation-driven superwinds traced by power-law wings and supernova-driven feedback traced by Gaussian wings. For the former, the $<3$ Myr-old, pre-supernova stellar population correlates with more luminous, faster winds. The data also show that radiation-driven wind parameters like wind luminosity and power-law slope $α$ depend on the UV luminosity more than the optically thick covering fraction, consistent with ``picket-fence" radiative transfer. Observed $α$ values flatten with both escaping LyC luminosity and higher extinction, while still preserving the anticorrelation between these two quantities. Additionally, the differential between red and blue slopes implies that extinction and dense gas are centrally concentrated relative to the wind emission. Overall, our results show that power-law emission-line wings probe LyC-driven winds and LyC escape in metal-poor starbursts.

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The Lyman-alpha and Continuum Origins Survey. I. Survey description and Ly$α$ imaging

Understanding the mechanisms driving the escape of ionizing or Lyman continuum (LyC) emission from the interstellar medium of galaxies is necessary to constrain the evolution of reionization, and the sources responsible for it. While progress has been made into identifying the global galaxy properties linked to the escape fraction of ionizing radiation, $f_{esc}^{LyC}$, little is currently known about how spatially resolved galaxy properties impact this parameter. We present Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging data obtained as part of the Lyman $α$ and Continuum Origins Survey (LaCOS). LaCOS consists of HST imaging in 5 filters covering rest-frame optical and UV bands for a subsample of 42 galaxies in the Low redshift Lyman Continuum Survey, 22 being Lyman continuum emitters ($f_{esc}^{LyC}=0.01-0.49$). Here, we describe the sample, observations and data reduction, and investigate connections between global and sub-kpc Lyman $α$ (Ly$α$) emission, and $f_{esc}^{LyC}$. We confirm the correlation between $f_{esc}^{LyC}$ and EW$_{Lyα}$ , and the anticorrelation with $r_{50}$, when using values obtained via global photometry. We also find correlations previously found with spectroscopy with global photometric $L_{Lyα}$, $f_{esc}^{Lyα}$, $Σ_{SFR}$ , and $f_{esc}^{LyC}$, but with a smaller degree of correlation ($\overline{|Δτ|}\sim0.1$). We find correlations are strongest between $Lyα$ observables ($L_{\rm Lyα}$, EW$_{\rm Lyα}$) and $f_{\rm esc}^{\rm LyC}$ when measured in a small aperture around the brightest UV source in each galaxy. We interpret these results as evidence that LyC photons escaping on the line-of-sight are contributed by a small number of UV-bright compact regions in most galaxies in LaCOS.

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New Ionization Models and the Shocking Nitrogen Excess at z > 5

The new era of galaxy evolution studies hearkened in by JWST has led to the discovery of z > 5 galaxies exhibiting excess nitrogen with log(N/O)~1 dex or more than expected from log(N/O) vs 12+log(O/H) trends in the local Universe. A variety of novel enrichment pathways have been presented to explain the apparent nitrogen excess, invoking a wide range of processes from very massive stars to stripped binaries to fine-tuned star-formation histories. However, understanding the excitation mechanism responsible for the observed nebular emission is necessary to accurately infer chemical abundances. As of yet, the ionization sources of these galaxies have not been thoroughly explored, with radiative shocks left out of the picture. We present a suite of homogeneous excitation models for star-forming galaxies, active galactic nuclei, and radiative shocks, with which we explore possible explanations for the apparent nitrogen excess. We propose new BPT-style diagnostics to classify galaxies at z > 5, finding that, when combined with O iii] 1660,66 and He ii 1640, N iii] 1747-54 / C iii] 1907,09 best selects shock-dominated galaxies while N iv] 1483,86 / C iii] 1907,09 best distinguishes between active black holes and star forming galaxies. From our diagnostics, we find that slow/intermediate radiative shocks (v = 75-150 km/s) are most consistent with observed UV emission line flux ratios in nitrogen-bright galaxies. Accounting for the effects of shocks can bring nitrogen estimates into better agreement with abundance patterns observed in the local Universe and may be attributable to Wolf Rayet populations actively enriching these galaxies with nitrogen and possibly driving winds responsible for these shocks.

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A Simulated Galaxy Laboratory: Exploring the Observational Effects on UV Spectral Absorption Line Measurements

Ultraviolet absorption line spectroscopy is a sensitive diagnostic for the properties of interstellar and circumgalactic gas. Down-the-barrel observations, where the absorption is measured against the galaxy itself, are commonly used to study feedback from galactic outflows and to make predictions about the leakage of HI ionizing photons into the intergalactic medium. Nonetheless, the interpretation of these observations is challenging and observational compromises are often made in terms of signal-to-noise, spectral resolution, or the use of stacking analyses. In this paper, we present a novel quantitative assessment of UV absorption line measurement techniques by using mock observations of a hydrodynamical simulation. We use a simulated galaxy to create 22,500 spectra in the commonly used SiII lines while also modeling the signal-to-noise and spectral resolution of recent rest-frame UV galaxy surveys at both high and low redshifts. We show that the residual flux of absorption features is easily overestimated for single line measurements and for stacked spectra. Additionally, we explore the robustness of the partial covering model for estimating column densities from spectra and find under-predictions on average of 1.25 dex. We show that the under-prediction is likely caused by high-column-density sight-lines that are optically-thick to dust making them invisible in UV spectra.

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The Low-Redshift Lyman Continuum Survey: The Roles of Stellar Feedback and ISM Geometry in LyC Escape

One of the fundamental questions of cosmology is the origin and mechanism(s) responsible for the reionization of the Universe beyond $z\sim6$. To address this question, many studies over the past decade have focused on local ($z\sim0.3$) galaxies which leak ionizing radiation (Lyman continuum or LyC). However, line-of-sight effects and data quality have prohibited deeper insight into the nature of LyC escape. To circumvent these limitations, we analyze stacks of a consolidated sample of {\it HST}/COS observations of the LyC in 89 galaxies at $z\sim0.3$. From fitting of the continuum, we obtain information about the underlying stellar populations and neutral ISM geometry. We find that most LyC non-detections are not leaking appreciable LyC ($f_{esc}^{\rm LyC}<1$\%) but also that exceptional cases point to spatial variations in the LyC escape fraction $f_{esc}^{\rm LyC}$. Stellar populations younger than 3 Myr lead to an increase in ionizing feedback, which in turn increases the isotropy of LyC escape. Moreover, mechanical feedback from supernovae in 8-10 Myr stellar populations is important for anisotropic gas distributions needed for LyC escape. While mechanical feedback is necessary for any LyC escape, high $f_{esc}^{\rm LyC}$ ($>5$\%) also requires a confluence of young stars and ionizing feedback. A two-stage burst of star formation could facilitate this optimal LyC escape scenario.

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Multivariate Predictors of LyC Escape I: A Survival Analysis of the Low-redshift Lyman Continuum Survey

To understand how galaxies reionized the universe, we must determine how the escape fraction of Lyman Continuum (LyC) photons (fesc) depends on galaxy properties. Using the z~0.3 Low-redshift Lyman Continuum Survey (LzLCS), we develop and analyze new multivariate predictors of fesc. These predictions use the Cox proportional hazards model, a survival analysis technique that incorporates both detections and upper limits. Our best model predicts the LzLCS fesc detections with a root-mean-square (RMS) scatter of 0.31 dex, better than single-variable correlations. According to ranking techniques, the most important predictors of fesc are the equivalent width (EW) of Lyman-series absorption lines and the UV dust attenuation, which track line-of-sight absorption due to HI and dust. The HI absorption EW is uniquely crucial for predicting fesc for the strongest LyC emitters, which show properties similar to weaker LyC emitters and whose high fesc may therefore result from favorable orientation. In the absence of HI information, star formation rate surface density ($Σ_{\rm SFR}$) and [O III]/[O II] ratio are the most predictive variables and highlight the connection between feedback and fesc. We generate a model suitable for z>6, which uses only the UV slope, $Σ_{\rm SFR}$, and [O III]/[O II]. We find that $Σ_{\rm SFR}$ is more important in predicting fesc at higher stellar masses, whereas [O III]/[O II] plays a greater role at lower masses. We also analyze predictions for other parameters, such as the ionizing-to-non ionizing flux ratio and Ly=alpha escape fraction. These multivariate models represent a promising tool for predicting fesc at high redshift.

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Multivariate Predictors of LyC Escape II: Predicting LyC Escape Fractions for High-Redshift Galaxies

JWST is uncovering the properties of ever increasing numbers of galaxies at z>6, during the epoch of reionization. Connecting these observed populations to the process of reionization requires understanding how efficiently they produce Lyman continuum (LyC) photons and what fraction (fesc) of these photons escape into the intergalactic medium. By applying the Cox proportional hazards model, a survival analysis technique, to the Low-redshift Lyman Continuum Survey (LzLCS), we develop new, empirical, multivariate predictions for fesc. The models developed from the LzLCS reproduce the observed fesc for z~3 samples, which suggests that LyC emitters may share similar properties at low and high redshift. Our best-performing models for the z~3 galaxies include information about dust attenuation, ionization, and/or morphology. We then apply these models to z$\gtrsim$6 galaxies. For large photometric samples, we find a median predicted fesc=0.047-0.14. For smaller spectroscopic samples, which may include stronger emission line galaxies, we find that $\geq$33% of the galaxies have fesc >0.2, and we identify several candidate extreme leakers with fesc $\geq$0.5. The current samples show no strong trend between predicted fesc and UV magnitude, but limited spectroscopic information makes this result uncertain. Multivariate predictions can give significantly different results from single variable predictions, and the predicted fesc for high-redshift galaxies can differ significantly depending on whether star formation rate surface density or radius is used as a measure of galaxy morphology. We provide all parameters necessary to predict fesc for additional samples of high-redshift galaxies using these models.

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