arXiv subjects

Sophie A. Murray

Publications and source records attributed to Sophie A. Murray.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Solar Flare Effects on the Earth's Lower Ionosphere

Solar flares significantly impact the conditions of the Earth's ionosphere. In particular, the sudden increase in X-ray flux during a flare penetrates down to the lowest-lying D-region and dominates ionization at these altitudes (60-100 km). Measurements of very low frequency (VLF: 3-30kHz) radio waves that reflect at D-region altitudes provide a unique remote-sensing probe to investigate the D-region response to solar flare emissions. Here, using a combination of VLF amplitude measurements at 24kHz together with X-ray observations from the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES) X-ray sensor, we present a large-scale statistical study of 334 solar flare events and their impacts on the D-region over the past solar cycle. Focusing on both GOES broadband X-ray channels, we investigate how the flare peak fluxes and position on the solar disk dictate an ionospheric response and extend this to investigate the characteristic time delay between incident X-ray flux and the D-region response. We show that the VLF amplitude linearly correlates with both the 1-8 A and 0.5-4 A channels, with correlation coefficients of 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Unlike higher altitude ionospheric regions for which the location of the flare on the solar disk affects the ionospheric response, we find that the D-region response to solar flares does not depend on the flare location. By comparing the time delays between the peak X-ray fluxes in both GOES channels and VLF amplitudes, we find that there is an important difference between the D-region response and the X-ray spectral band. We also demonstrate for several flare events that show a negative time delay, the peak VLF amplitude matches with the impulsive 25-50 keV hard X-ray fluxes measured by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares: Methods for Combining Models

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are substantially better than climatological forecasts. Space weather researchers are increasingly looking towards methods used by the terrestrial weather community to improve current forecasting techniques. Ensemble forecasting has been used in numerical weather prediction for many years as a way to combine different predictions in order to obtain a more accurate result. Here we construct ensemble forecasts for major solar flares by linearly combining the full-disk probabilistic forecasts from a group of operational forecasting methods (ASAP, ASSA, MAG4, MOSWOC, NOAA, and MCSTAT). Forecasts from each method are weighted by a factor that accounts for the method's ability to predict previous events, and several performance metrics (both probabilistic and categorical) are considered. It is found that most ensembles achieve a better skill metric (between 5\% and 15\%) than any of the members alone. Moreover, over 90\% of ensembles perform better (as measured by forecast attributes) than a simple equal-weights average. Finally, ensemble uncertainties are highly dependent on the internal metric being optimized and they are estimated to be less than 20\% for probabilities greater than 0.2. This simple multi-model, linear ensemble technique can provide operational space weather centres with the basis for constructing a versatile ensemble forecasting system -- an improved starting point to their forecasts that can be tailored to different end-user needs.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. IV. Evaluating Consecutive-Day Forecasting Patterns

A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multi-day periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods, and conversely, of correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event and event/no-event), and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day-1 remains high/low on day-2 even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Multiple Regions of Shock-accelerated Particles during a Solar Coronal Mass Ejection

The Sun is an active star that can launch large eruptions of magnetised plasma into the heliosphere, called coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These ejections can drive shocks that accelerate particles to high energies, often resulting in radio emission at low frequencies (<200 MHz). To date, the relationship between the expansion of CMEs, shocks and particle acceleration is not well understood, partly due to the lack of radio imaging at low frequencies during the onset of shock-producing CMEs. Here, we report multi-instrument radio, white-light and ultraviolet imaging of the second largest flare in Solar Cycle 24 (2008-present) and its associated fast CME (3038+/-288 km/s). We identify the location of a multitude of radio shock signatures, called herringbones, and find evidence for shock accelerated electron beams at multiple locations along the expanding CME. These observations support theories of non-uniform, rippled shock fronts driven by an expanding CME in the solar corona.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Summary of the plenary sessions at European Space Weather Week 15: space weather users and service providers working together now and in the future

During European Space Weather Week 15 two plenary sessions were held to review the status of operational space weather forecasting. The first session addressed the topic of working with space weather service providers now and in the future, the user perspective. The second session provided the service perspective, addressing experiences in forecasting development and operations. Presentations in both sessions provided an overview of international efforts on these topics, and panel discussion topics arising in the first session were used as a basis for panel discussion in the second session. Discussion topics included experiences during the September 2017 space weather events, cross domain impacts, timeliness of notifications, and provision of effective user education. Users highlighted that a 'severe' space weather event did not necessarily lead to severe impacts for each individual user across the different sectors. Service providers were generally confident that timely and reliable information could be provided during severe and extreme events, although stressed that more research and funding were required in this relatively new field of operational space weather forecasting, to ensure continuation of capabilities and further development of services, in particular improved forecasting targeting user needs. Here a summary of the sessions is provided followed by a commentary on the current state-of-the-art and potential next steps towards improvement of services.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Application Usability Levels: A Framework for Tracking Project Product Progress

The space physics community continues to grow and become both more interdisciplinary and more intertwined with commercial and government operations. This has created a need for a framework to easily identify what projects can be used for specific applications and how close the tool is to routine autonomous or on-demand implementation and operation. We propose the Application Usability Level (AUL) framework and publicizing AULs to help the community quantify the progress of successful applications, metrics, and validation efforts. This framework will also aid the scientific community by supplying the type of information needed to build off of previously published work and publicizing the applications and requirements needed by the user communities. In this paper, we define the AUL framework, outline the milestones required for progression to higher AULs, and provide example projects utilizing the AUL framework. This work has been completed as part of the activities of the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress working group which is part of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. III. Systematic Behaviors of Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems

A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today's operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019) we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human "forecaster in the loop"; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3) may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al. 2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. II. Benchmarks, Metrics and Performance Results for Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems

Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al, 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to - for the first time - directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the "no skill" level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and today's performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Expansion of High Speed Solar Wind Streams from Coronal Holes through the Inner Heliosphere

Coronal holes (CHs) are regions of open magnetic flux which are the source of high speed solar wind (HSSW) streams. To date, it is not clear which aspects of CHs are of most influence on the properties of the solar wind as it expands through the Heliosphere. Here, we study the relationship between CH properties extracted from AIA (Atmospheric Imaging Assembly) images using CHIMERA (Coronal Hole Identification via Multi-thermal Emission Recognition Algorithm) and HSSW measurements from ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) at L1. For CH longitudinal widths $Δθ_{CH}<$67$^{\circ}$, the peak SW velocity ($v_{max}$) is found to scale as $v_{max}~\approx~330.8~+~5.7~Δθ_{CH}$~km~s$^{-1}$. For larger longitudinal widths ($Δθ_{CH}>$67$^{\circ}$), $v_{max}$ is found to tend to a constant value ($\sim$710~km~s$^{-1}$). Furthermore, we find that the duration of HSSW streams ($Δt$) are directly related to the longitudinal width of CHs ($Δt_{SW}$~$\approx$~0.09$Δθ_{CH}$) and that their longitudinal expansion factor is $f_{SW}~\approx 1.2~\pm 0.1$. We also derive an expression for the coronal hole flux-tube expansion factor, $f_{FT}$, which varies as $f_{SW} \gtrsim f_{FT} \gtrsim 0.8$. These results enable us to estimate the peak speeds and durations of HSSW streams at L1 using the properties of CHs identified in the solar corona.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

The importance of ensemble techniques for operational space weather forecasting

The space weather community has begun to use frontier methods such as data assimilation, machine learning, and ensemble modeling to advance current operational forecasting efforts. This was highlighted by a multi-disciplinary session at the 2017 American Geophysical Union Meeting, 'Frontier Solar-Terrestrial Science Enabled by the Combination of Data-Driven Techniques and Physics-Based Understanding', with considerable discussion surrounding ensemble techniques. Here ensemble methods are described in detail; using a set of predictions to improve on a single-model output, for example taking a simple average of multiple models, or using more complex techniques for data assimilation. They have been used extensively in fields such as numerical weather prediction and data science, for both improving model accuracy and providing a measure of model uncertainty. Researchers in the space weather community have found them to be similarly useful, and some examples of success stories are highlighted in this commentary. Future developments are also encouraged to transition these basic research efforts to operational forecasting as well as providing prediction errors to aid end-user understanding.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre was founded in 2014 and part of its remit is a daily Space Weather Technical Forecast to help the UK build resilience to space weather impacts; guidance includes four day geo-magnetic storm forecasts (GMSF) and X-ray flare forecasts (XRFF). It is crucial for forecasters, users, modelers and stakeholders to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these forecasts; therefore, it is important to verify against the most reliable truth data source available. The present study contains verification results for XRFFs using GOES-15 satellite data and GMSF using planetary K-index (Kp) values from the GFZ Helmholtz Centre. To assess the value of the verification results it is helpful to compare them against a reference forecast and the frequency of occurrence during a rolling prediction period is used for this purpose. Analysis of the rolling 12-month performance over a 19-month period suggests that both the XRFF and GMSF struggle to provide a better prediction than the reference. However, a relative operating characteristic and reliability analysis of the full 19-month period reveals that although the GMSF and XRFF possess discriminatory skill, events tend to be over-forecast.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Connecting Coronal Mass Ejections to their Solar Active Region Sources: Combining Results from the HELCATS and FLARECAST Projects

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other solar eruptive phenomena can be physically linked by combining data from a multitude of ground-based and space-based instruments alongside models, however this can be challenging for automated operational systems. The EU Framework Package 7 HELCATS project provides catalogues of CME observations and properties from the Helio- spheric Imagers onboard the two NASA/STEREO spacecraft in order to track the evolution of CMEs in the inner heliosphere. From the main HICAT catalogue of over 2,000 CME detections, an automated algorithm has been developed to connect the CMEs observed by STEREO to any corresponding solar flares and active region (AR) sources on the solar surface. CME kinematic properties, such as speed and angular width, are compared with AR magnetic field properties, such as magnetic flux, area, and neutral line characteristics. The resulting LOWCAT catalogue is also compared to the extensive AR property database created by the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project, which provides more complex magnetic field parameters derived from vector magnetograms. Initial statistical analysis has been undertaken on the new data to provide insight into the link between flare and CME events, and characteristics of eruptive ARs. Warning thresholds determined from analysis of the evolution of these parameters is shown to be a useful output for operational space weather purposes. Parameters of particular interest for further analysis include total unsigned flux, vertical current, and current helicity. The automated method developed to create the LOWCAT catalogue may also be useful for future efforts to develop operational CME forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Automated Coronal Hole Identification via Multi-Thermal Intensity Segmentation

Coronal holes (CH) are regions of open magnetic fields that appear as dark areas in the solar corona due to their low density and temperature compared to the surrounding quiet corona. To date, accurate identification and segmentation of CHs has been a difficult task due to their comparable intensity to local quiet Sun regions. Current segmentation methods typically rely on the use of single EUV passband and magnetogram images to extract CH information. Here, the Coronal Hole Identification via Multi-thermal Emission Recognition Algorithm (CHIMERA) is described, which analyses multi-thermal images from the Atmospheric Image Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to segment coronal hole boundaries by their intensity ratio across three passbands (171 Å, 193 Å, and 211 Å). The algorithm allows accurate extraction of CH boundaries and many of their properties, such as area, position, latitudinal and longitudinal width, and magnetic polarity of segmented CHs. From these properties, a clear linear relationship was identified between the duration of geomagnetic storms and coronal hole areas. CHIMERA can therefore form the basis of more accurate forecasting of the start and duration of geomagnetic storms.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government and commercial end users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are one of its products, which are issued multiple times a day in two forms; forecasts for each active region on the solar disk over the next 24 hours, and full-disk forecasts for the next four days. Here the forecasting process is described in detail, as well as first verification of archived forecasts using methods commonly used in operational weather prediction. Real-time verification available for operational flare forecasting use is also described. The influence of human forecasters is highlighted, with human-edited forecasts outperforming original model results, and forecasting skill decreasing over longer forecast lead times.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Assessing the performance of thermospheric modelling with data assimilation throughout solar cycles 23 and 24

Data assimilation procedures have been developed for thermospheric models using satellite density measurements as part of the EU Framework Package 7 ATMOP Project. Two models were studied; one a general circulation model, TIEGCM, and the other a semi-empirical drag temperature model, DTM. Results of runs using data assimilation with these models were compared with independent density observations from CHAMP and GRACE satellites throughout solar cycles 23 and 24. Time periods of 60 days were examined at solar minimum and maximum, including the 2003 Hallowe'en storms. The differences between the physical and the semi-empirical models have been characterised. Results indicate that both models tend to show similar behaviour; underestimating densities at solar maximum, and overestimating them at solar minimum. DTM performed better at solar minimum, with both models less accurate at solar maximum. A mean improvement of ~4% was found using data assimilation with TIEGCM. With further improvements, the use of general circulation models in operational space weather forecasting (in addition to empirical methods currently used) is plausible. Future work will allow near-real-time assimilation of thermospheric data for improved forecasting.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2013

Fields and Flares: Understanding the Complex Magnetic Topologies of Solar Active Regions

Sunspots are regions of decreased brightness on the visible surface of the Sun (photosphere) that are associated with strong magnetic fields. They have been found to be locations associated with solar flares, which occur when energy stored in sunspot magnetic fields is suddenly released. The processes involved in flaring and the link between sunspot magnetic fields and flares is still not fully understood, and this thesis aims to gain a better understanding of these topics. The magnetic field evolution of a number of sunspot regions is examined using high spatial resolution data from the Hinode spacecraft. The research presented in this thesis gives insight into both photospheric and coronal magnetic field evolution of flaring regions. Significant increases in vertical field strength, current density, and field inclination angle towards the vertical are observed in the photosphere just hours before a flare occurs, which is on much shorter timescales than previously studied. First observations of spatial changes in field inclination across a magnetic neutral line (generally believed to be a typical source region of flares) are also discovered. 3D magnetic field extrapolation methods are used to study the coronal magnetic field, using the photospheric magnetic field data as a boundary condition. Magnetic energy and free magnetic energy are observed to increase significantly a few hours before a flare, and decrease afterwards, which is a similar trend to the photospheric field parameter changes observed. Evidence of partial Taylor relaxation is also detected after a flare, as predicted by several previous studies. The results outlined in this thesis show that this particular field of research is vital in furthering our understanding of the magnetic nature of sunspots and its link to flare processes.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Evidence for Partial Taylor Relaxation from Changes in Magnetic Geometry and Energy during a Solar Flare

Solar flares are powered by energy stored in the coronal magnetic field, a portion of which is released when the field reconfigures into a lower energy state. Investigation of sunspot magnetic field topology during flare activity is useful to improve our understanding of flaring processes. Here we investigate the deviation of the non-linear field configuration from that of the linear and potential configurations, and study the free energy available leading up to and after a flare. The evolution of the magnetic field in NOAA region 10953 was examined using data from Hinode/SOT-SP, over a period of 12 hours leading up to and after a GOES B1.0 flare. Previous work on this region found pre- and post-flare changes in photospheric vector magnetic field parameters of flux elements outside the primary sunspot. 3D geometry was thus investigated using potential, linear force-free, and non-linear force-free field extrapolations in order to fully understand the evolution of the field lines. Traced field line geometrical and footpoint orientation differences show that the field does not completely relax to a fully potential or linear force-free state after the flare. Magnetic and free magnetic energies increase significantly ~ 6.5-2.5 hours before the flare by ~ 10^31 erg. After the flare, the non-linear force-free magnetic energy and free magnetic energies decrease but do not return to pre-flare 'quiet' values. The post-flare non-linear force-free field configuration is closer (but not equal) to that of the linear force-free field configuration than a potential one. However, the small degree of similarity suggests that partial Taylor relaxation has occurred over a time scale of ~ 3-4 hours.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

The Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields Associated with a Solar Flare

Solar flares occur due to the sudden release of energy stored in active-region magnetic fields. To date, the pre-cursors to flaring are still not fully understood, although there is evidence that flaring is related to changes in the topology or complexity of an active region's magnetic field. Here, the evolution of the magnetic field in active region NOAA 10953 was examined using Hinode/SOT-SP data, over a period of 12 hours leading up to and after a GOES B1.0 flare. A number of magnetic-field properties and low-order aspects of magnetic-field topology were extracted from two flux regions that exhibited increased Ca II H emission during the flare. Pre-flare increases in vertical field strength, vertical current density, and inclination angle of ~ 8degrees towards the vertical were observed in flux elements surrounding the primary sunspot. The vertical field strength and current density subsequently decreased in the post-flare state, with the inclination becoming more horizontal by ~7degrees. This behaviour of the field vector may provide a physical basis for future flare forecasting efforts.

astro-ph.SR↗