arXiv subjects

Sotirios Tsaftaris

Publications and source records attributed to Sotirios Tsaftaris.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Entangled by Design: Spurious Intra-Variable Signal Routing in Tabular In-Context Learners

Consider a model trained at a single hospital to predict patient recovery, where the measured feature $X$ bundles the patient's true health signal ($C$) with a systematic artefact from that hospital's equipment ($S$). Within that hospital, the artefact correlates with outcomes through unmeasured confounders such as patient demographics; an in-context learner rationally routes predictions through $S$, not $C$, and fails silently when deployed at a new hospital with different equipment. We formalise this as \emph{spurious routing in composite representations}: when a feature $X = [C;\,αS;\,η]$ encodes a causal signal $C$ and a spurious signal $S$ in distinct subspaces, the ICL cannot determine which drives predictions. We prove that under ridge ICL, a linear in-context learner, this routing is unavoidable regardless of context size; TabPFN, a state-of-the-art pretrained tabular ICL model, shows qualitatively consistent behaviour empirically. We derive a closed-form characterisation, $\mathrm{CSR} \propto ρ_S/ρ_C$, confirmed at $r = 0.997$ for linear ICL and $r = 0.979$ for TabPFN. Contrary to intuition, larger context sharpens commitment to the dominant in-context signal, amplifying spurious routing by up to $1.74\times$; in the high-spurious corner, more expressive models show greater vulnerability empirically ($+2.22$ CSR gap at high entanglement). We introduce two lightweight mitigations: environment-stratified context construction and S-swap augmentation, that require only weak environment labels and no knowledge of the causal partition. S-swap reduces spurious routing by $74\%$ for linear ICL and $98.8\%$ for TabPFN, with TabPFN's causal sensitivity increasing $8.4\times$ simultaneously: the model does not become agnostic, it reroutes through the causal signal.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

From Training to Deployment: Post-Hoc Causal Feature Identification via Sensitivity Ratios

Given a model that is already trained, which features does it rely on causally versus spuriously? Existing methods require access to the training procedure and cannot answer this post-hoc. We introduce the \textbf{Normalised Sensitivity Ratio~(NSR)}, a post-hoc, model-agnostic diagnostic for this question under a structured-shift regime: environments differ primarily in the mean of spurious features while the causal mechanism and causal marginals remain stable, as in multi-site clinical data or multi-batch genomics. Within this regime, causal features induce constant model sensitivity across environments while spurious features track shift. NSR formalises this as the squared coefficient of variation of per-environment sensitivity. Under a linear structural causal model (SCM) with $K\ge3$ non-degenerate environments, NSR achieves exact identification (Theorem~1). We fully characterise failure: weak shifts ($O(\varepsilon^4)$ collapse), degenerate geometry, and proxy attenuation ($O((1-α)^4)$), giving practitioners quantitative criteria for assessing whether the regime holds. Finite-sample rates are $O_p(n^{-1})$ under the null and $O_p(n^{-1/2})$ under the alternative. Experiments confirm all theoretical predictions on synthetic data (area under the ROC curve [AUROC] $= 1.000$ under conditions satisfying the regime), show consistent rankings across five model families (Kendall $τ\ge0.529$), and recover six of eight causal features on bike-sharing data (Precision@7 $= 0.75$) without modifying any trained model.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

A model predictive control framework with customer-priority tiers for virtual power plant resilience during extreme weather: A UK heatwave case study

Due to changes in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and storms, power systems around the globe are having to deal with increased imbalance between demand and supply and additional risk of loss of supply, calling for advanced control strategies that strengthen system resilience. This paper develops a Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework for coordination of Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) that manages photovoltaic (PV) systems, batteries, and loads before, during, and after extreme weather events. A multi-objective mixed-integer quadratically constrained program is solved to enforce customer-priority tiers, serving critical loads first, while minimizing operating cost and PV curtailment under network and device constraints. Simulations on the IEEE 33-bus distribution network with real UK heatwave data show that, under realistic forecast errors and modeling uncertainties, MPC improves resilience by 11-20% relative to traditional full-horizon optimization. These results indicate the practical viability of receding-horizon coordination for resilient, low-carbon VPP operation during extreme weather.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Preventing Shortcut Learning in Medical Image Analysis through Intermediate Layer Knowledge Distillation from Specialist Teachers

Deep learning models are prone to learning shortcut solutions to problems using spuriously correlated yet irrelevant features of their training data. In high-risk applications such as medical image analysis, this phenomenon may prevent models from using clinically meaningful features when making predictions, potentially leading to poor robustness and harm to patients. We demonstrate that different types of shortcuts (those that are diffuse and spread throughout the image, as well as those that are localized to specific areas) manifest distinctly across network layers and can, therefore, be more effectively targeted through mitigation strategies that target the intermediate layers. We propose a novel knowledge distillation framework that leverages a teacher network fine-tuned on a small subset of task-relevant data to mitigate shortcut learning in a student network trained on a large dataset corrupted with a bias feature. Through extensive experiments on CheXpert, ISIC 2017, and SimBA datasets using various architectures (ResNet-18, AlexNet, DenseNet-121, and 3D CNNs), we demonstrate consistent improvements over traditional Empirical Risk Minimization, augmentation-based bias-mitigation, and group-based bias-mitigation approaches. In many cases, we achieve comparable performance with a baseline model trained on bias-free data, even on out-of-distribution test data. Our results demonstrate the practical applicability of our approach to real-world medical imaging scenarios where bias annotations are limited and shortcut features are difficult to identify a priori.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Debiasing Counterfactuals In the Presence of Spurious Correlations

Deep learning models can perform well in complex medical imaging classification tasks, even when basing their conclusions on spurious correlations (i.e. confounders), should they be prevalent in the training dataset, rather than on the causal image markers of interest. This would thereby limit their ability to generalize across the population. Explainability based on counterfactual image generation can be used to expose the confounders but does not provide a strategy to mitigate the bias. In this work, we introduce the first end-to-end training framework that integrates both (i) popular debiasing classifiers (e.g. distributionally robust optimization (DRO)) to avoid latching onto the spurious correlations and (ii) counterfactual image generation to unveil generalizable imaging markers of relevance to the task. Additionally, we propose a novel metric, Spurious Correlation Latching Score (SCLS), to quantify the extent of the classifier reliance on the spurious correlation as exposed by the counterfactual images. Through comprehensive experiments on two public datasets (with the simulated and real visual artifacts), we demonstrate that the debiasing method: (i) learns generalizable markers across the population, and (ii) successfully ignores spurious correlations and focuses on the underlying disease pathology.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Counterfactual Image Synthesis for Discovery of Personalized Predictive Image Markers

The discovery of patient-specific imaging markers that are predictive of future disease outcomes can help us better understand individual-level heterogeneity of disease evolution. In fact, deep learning models that can provide data-driven personalized markers are much more likely to be adopted in medical practice. In this work, we demonstrate that data-driven biomarker discovery can be achieved through a counterfactual synthesis process. We show how a deep conditional generative model can be used to perturb local imaging features in baseline images that are pertinent to subject-specific future disease evolution and result in a counterfactual image that is expected to have a different future outcome. Candidate biomarkers, therefore, result from examining the set of features that are perturbed in this process. Through several experiments on a large-scale, multi-scanner, multi-center multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) dataset of relapsing-remitting (RRMS) patients, we demonstrate that our model produces counterfactuals with changes in imaging features that reflect established clinical markers predictive of future MRI lesional activity at the population level. Additional qualitative results illustrate that our model has the potential to discover novel and subject-specific predictive markers of future activity.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Cohort Bias Adaptation in Aggregated Datasets for Lesion Segmentation

Many automatic machine learning models developed for focal pathology (e.g. lesions, tumours) detection and segmentation perform well, but do not generalize as well to new patient cohorts, impeding their widespread adoption into real clinical contexts. One strategy to create a more diverse, generalizable training set is to naively pool datasets from different cohorts. Surprisingly, training on this \it{big data} does not necessarily increase, and may even reduce, overall performance and model generalizability, due to the existence of cohort biases that affect label distributions. In this paper, we propose a generalized affine conditioning framework to learn and account for cohort biases across multi-source datasets, which we call Source-Conditioned Instance Normalization (SCIN). Through extensive experimentation on three different, large scale, multi-scanner, multi-centre Multiple Sclerosis (MS) clinical trial MRI datasets, we show that our cohort bias adaptation method (1) improves performance of the network on pooled datasets relative to naively pooling datasets and (2) can quickly adapt to a new cohort by fine-tuning the instance normalization parameters, thus learning the new cohort bias with only 10 labelled samples.

eess.IV↗