arXiv subjects

Soukaina Douissi

Publications and source records attributed to Soukaina Douissi.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Asymptotics of Yule's nonsense correlation for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck paths: The correlated case

We study the continuous-time version of the empirical correlation coefficient between the paths of two possibly correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, known as Yule's nonsense correlation for these paths. Using sharp tools from the analysis on Wiener chaos, we establish the asymptotic normality of the fluctuations of this correlation coefficient around its long-time limit, which is the mathematical correlation coefficient between the two processes. This asymptotic normality is quantified in Kolmogorov distance, which allows us to establish speeds of convergence in the Type-II error for two simple tests of independence of the paths, based on the empirical correlation, and based on its numerator. An application to independence of two observations of solutions to the stochastic heat equation is given, with excellent asymptotic power properties using merely a small number of the solutions' Fourier modes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Parameter estimation for fractional stochastic heat equations : Berry-Esséen bounds in CLTs

The aim of this work is to estimate the drift coefficient of a fractional heat equation driven by an additive space-time noise using the Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In the first part of the paper, the first $N$ Fourier modes of the solution are observed continuously over a finite time interval $[0, T ]$. The explicit upper bounds for the Wasserstein distance for the central limit theorem of the MLE is provided when $N \rightarrow \infty$ and/or $T \rightarrow \infty$. While in the second part of the paper, the $N$ Fourier modes are observed at uniform time grid : $t_i = i \frac{T}{M}$, $i=0,..,M,$ where $M$ is the number of time grid points. The consistency and asymptotic normality are studied when $T,M,N \rightarrow + \infty$ in addition to the rate of convergence in law in the CLT.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Asymptotics of Yule's nonsense correlation for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck paths: a Wiener chaos approach

In this paper, we study the distribution of the so-called "Yule's nonsense correlation statistic" on a time interval $[0,T]$ for a time horizon $T>0$ , when $T$ is large, for a pair $(X_{1},X_{2})$ of independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. This statistic is by definition equal to : \begin{equation*} ρ(T):=\frac{Y_{12}(T)}{\sqrt{Y_{11}(T)}\sqrt{Y_{22}(T)}}, \end{equation*} where the random variables $Y_{ij}(T)$, $i,j=1,2$ are defined as \begin{equation*} Y_{ij}(T):=\int_{0}^{T}X_{i}(u)X_{j}(u)du-T\bar{X}_{i}\bar{X_{j}}, \bar{X}_{i}:=\frac{1}{T}\int_{0}^{T}X_{i}(u)du. \end{equation*} We assume $X_{1}$ and $X_{2}$ have the same drift parameter $θ>0$. We also study the asymptotic law of a discrete-type version of $ρ(T)$, where $Y_{ij}(T)$ above are replaced by their Riemann-sum discretizations. In this case, conditions are provided for how the discretization (in-fill) step relates to the long horizon $T$. We establish identical normal asymptotics for standardized $ρ(T)$ and its discrete-data version. The asymptotic variance of $ρ(T)T^{1/2}$ is $θ^{-1}$. We also establish speeds of convergence in the Kolmogorov distance, which are of Berry-Esséen-type (constant*$T^{-1/2}$) except for a $\ln T$ factor. Our method is to use the properties of Wiener-chaos variables, since $ρ(T)$ and its discrete version are comprised of ratios involving three such variables in the 2nd Wiener chaos. This methodology accesses the Kolmogorov distance thanks to a relation which stems from the connection between the Malliavin calculus and Stein's method on Wiener space.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Berry-Esseen bounds of second moment estimators for Gaussian processes observed at high frequency

Let $Z:=\{Z_t,t\geq0\}$ be a stationary Gaussian process. We study two estimators of $\mathbb{E}[Z_0^2]$, namely $\widehat{f}_T(Z):= \frac{1}{T} \int_{0}^{T} Z_{t}^{2}dt$, and $\widetilde{f}_n(Z) :=\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i =1}^{n} Z_{t_{i}}^{2}$, where $ t_{i} = i Δ_{n}$, $ i=0,1,\ldots, n $, $Δ_{n}\rightarrow 0$ and $ T_{n} := n Δ_{n}\rightarrow \infty$. We prove that the two estimators are strongly consistent and establish Berry-Esseen bounds for a central limit theorem involving $\widehat{f}_T(Z)$ and $\widetilde{f}_n(Z)$. We apply these results to asymptotically stationary Gaussian processes and estimate the drift parameter for Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

AR(1) processes driven by second-chaos white noise: Berry-Esséen bounds for quadratic variation and parameter estimation

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the quadratic variation for the class of AR(1) processes driven by white noise in the second Wiener chaos. Using tools from the analysis on Wiener space, we give an upper bound for the total-variation speed of convergence to the normal law, which we apply to study the estimation of the model's mean-reversion. Simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Mean-field anticipated BSDEs driven by fractional Brownian motion and related stochastic control problem

In this paper, we focus on mean-field anticipated backward stochastic differential equations (MF-BSDEs, for short) driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H>1/2. First, the existence and uniqueness of this new type of BSDEs are established using two different approaches. Then, a comparison theorem for such BSDEs is obtained. Finally, as an application of this type of equations, a related stochastic optimal control problem is studied and the related sufficient maximum principle is obtained.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Mean-field optimal control problem of SDDEs driven by fractional Brownian motion

We consider a mean-field optimal control problem for stochastic differential equations with delay driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter greater than one half. Stochastic optimal control problems driven by fractional Brownian motion can not be studied using classical methods, because the fractional Brownian motion is neither a Markov process nor a semi-martingale. However, using the fractional White noise calculus combined with some special tools related to the differentiation for functions of measures, we establish and prove necessary and sufficient stochastic maximum principles. To illustrate our study, we consider two applications: we solve a problem of optimal consumption from a cash flow with delay and a linear-quadratique (LQ) problem with delay.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Berry-Esséen bounds for parameter estimation of general Gaussian processes

We study rates of convergence in central limit theorems for the partial sum of squares of general Gaussian sequences, using tools from analysis on Wiener space. No assumption of stationarity, asymptotically or otherwise, is made. The main theoretical tool is the so-called Optimal Fourth Moment Theorem \cite{NP2015}, which provides a sharp quantitative estimate of the total variation distance on Wiener chaos to the normal law. The only assumptions made on the sequence are the existence of an asymptotic variance, that a least-squares-type estimator for this variance parameter has a bias and a variance which can be controlled, and that the sequence's auto-correlation function, which may exhibit long memory, has a no-worse memory than that of fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter }$H<3/4$.{\ \ Our main result is explicit, exhibiting the trade-off between bias, variance, and memory. We apply our result to study drift parameter estimation problems for subfractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and bifractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with fixed-time-step observations. These are processes which fail to be stationary or self-similar, but for which detailed calculations result in explicit formulas for the estimators' asymptotic normality.

math.PR↗