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Souvik Chakraborty

Publications and source records attributed to Souvik Chakraborty.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

From Proxies to Fields: Spatiotemporal Reconstruction of Global Radiation from Sparse Sensor Sequences

Accurate reconstruction of latent environmental fields from sparse, indirect observations is a fundamental challenge across scientific domains, from atmospheric science and geophysics to public health and aerospace safety. Existing approaches typically rely on physics-based simulations or dense sensor networks; however, these methods are hampered by high computational cost, latency, and limited spatial coverage. Here we introduce the \textbf{Temporal Radiation Operator Network (TRON)}, a spatiotemporal neural operator architecture that infers continuous global scalar fields solely from sequences of sparse, non-uniform proxy measurements. Unlike recent prediction models that require dense, gridded inputs to predict system states, TRON tackles sparse-to-dense, cross-domain field reconstruction. It reconstructs the current global field in real time from sparse, temporally evolving sensor data, without access to any future observations or dense ground-truth fields. We demonstrate this approach on global cosmic radiation dose mapping: TRON, trained on daily reference fields spanning 2001 to 2023, generalizes across 65,341 spatial locations with input sequences ranging from 7 to 90 days. It achieves sub-second inference with relative $L_2$ errors below 0.1\%, representing over a 58,000$\times$ speedup compared to physics-based estimators. Although showcased in the radiation application, TRON provides a domain-agnostic framework for continuous field reconstruction from sparse data, with broad applications in atmospheric modeling, geophysical hazard monitoring, and real-time environmental risk prediction.

cs.LG

See, Hypothesize, Validate: Multimodal Agentic Framework for Discovering Governing PDEs

Discovering governing partial differential equations (PDEs) from observational data remains a core challenge across the sciences. Existing sparse-regression, symbolic-regression, and LLM-based approaches can be constrained by predefined libraries, noise sensitivity, hallucination, or limited iterative refinement. We introduce \textbf{MAGE} (\textbf{M}ultimodal \textbf{A}gentic \textbf{G}overning \textbf{E}quation Discovery), an agentic framework that organizes PDE discovery as a \textit{confidence governed hypothesis validation loop} inspired by the scientific cycle of observation, hypothesis, and falsification. Four role-specialized agents collaborate: a \textit{Differential Observer} computing derivatives and diagnostic visualizations; a VLM-powered \textit{Phenomenology Extractor} distilling qualitative cues from multimodal diagnostics; an LLM-driven \textit{Governing Law Synthesizer} proposing candidates without a predefined library; and an \textit{Equation Arbiter} fitting coefficients and assigning confidence scores. Discovery iterates until the top candidate clears a user-specified threshold, providing a structured process with an explicit accept-reject protocol. On the evaluated canonical PDE suite, MAGE obtains \textbf{8/8} exact structural recovery and the lowest coefficient error among the compared methods on \textbf{7/8} systems, with improvements of up to \textbf{4 orders of magnitude} and a geometric-mean improvement of approximately \textbf{3 orders of magnitude}. The pipeline also recovers the expected operators in two complex geometries and, on one laboratory sensor record, selects a cubic restoring-force model with held-out $R^2=0.98538$. These results support further study of structured agentic reasoning for library-free governing-law discovery, while broader generalization remains to be evaluated.

cs.AI

Beyond Pairwise Graphs in Science: Hypergraph Adaptive Wavelet Operators for Parametric PDEs

Physical systems are often modeled by solution operators that map input fields, parameters, geometries, or past states to steady or future physical states. Learning these maps is difficult, especially for time-dependent systems that must assimilate history and remain stable under autoregressive rollout. Many neural operators work best on regular, structured grids, while realistic simulations often require unstructured meshes or point clouds to resolve complex geometries; in such settings, grid-centric representations can lose accuracy. Graph neural operators handle these domains through message passing or spectral graph filtering, but pairwise edges do not directly capture group-wise couplings among mesh cells, local neighborhoods, or conservation volumes. We introduce the Hypergraph Adaptive waveLet Operator (HALO), which lifts the domain to a hypergraph and learns in its spectral wavelet domain. HALO avoids explicit hypergraph-Laplacian eigendecomposition through Chebyshev polynomial wavelet filters, giving localized spectral kernels at linear sparse-matrix cost. Its trainable dyadic wavelet scales are regularized toward tight-frame coverage, allowing the frequency response to adapt to each PDE while encouraging stable multi-scale spectral coverage. Across 2D and 3D benchmarks on structured and unstructured discretizations, HALO achieves best or near-best accuracy among frequency-, transformer-, DeepONet-, state-space-, and graph-based baselines and sustains stable multi-step rollouts. The same model scales to industrial aerodynamic geometries: on meshes of a few hundred thousand points it is on par with, or better than, the strongest fixed-discretization transformers, while remaining resolution-equivariant.

cs.LG

Hardware-Software Co-Design for Event-Driven SNN Deployment on Low-Cost Neuromorphic FPGAs

Low-cost FPGA platforms can broaden access to neuromorphic systems research, but current spiking neural network (SNN) workflows remain divided between hardware-first implementations, which are difficult to integrate with PyTorch-style development, and software-first frameworks, which often stop at simulation or GPU execution. This paper presents a semantics-preserving hardware-software co-design framework for the deterministic deployment of PyTorch-defined SNNs to event-driven FPGA execution. A single exported artifact carries weights, thresholds, connectivity descriptors, and grouped time-to-first-spike (TTFS) decoding metadata from software definition to board execution and is reused unchanged by both the software reference and the board runtime. A 10-class MNIST TTFS classifier implemented in the routed 80 MHz design achieves 87.40% accuracy and matches the software reference on all 10,000 test images. The programmable-logic path delivers a service latency of 0.1375 μs/image and an estimated dynamic energy of 31.6 nJ/image, while scope-aware comparisons with matched GPU and CPU baselines keep accelerator-only and system-level measurements distinct. These results show that low-cost event-driven FPGA hardware can provide a direct and reproducible software-to-board path for software-defined SNN models.

cs.AR

Virtual Sensing to Enable Real-Time Monitoring of Inaccessible Locations & Unmeasurable Parameters

Real-time monitoring of safety-critical interior states is an open problem across energy, environmental and industrial systems where direct instrumentation is infeasible. Approaches based on governing equations, discrete state vectors or fixed sensor locations cannot deliver mesh-independent, field-level reconstruction at arbitrary interior coordinates in real time. Here we introduce neural operator-based virtual sensing, a framework for recovering inaccessible interior fields from sparse boundary measurements, instantiated with MIMONet, a multi-input, multi-output neural operator that fuses heterogeneous inputs and decodes coupled fields through a shared latent representation. Across three engineering-grade evaluations of escalating complexity - confined recirculating flow, pressurized water reactor subchannels and compact power-system heat exchangers - MIMONet attains relative reconstruction error below 5% with sub-millisecond inference, with calibrated uncertainty and noise resilience. We validate the framework on three independent real-world datasets spanning electrochemical energy, atmospheric science and physical oceanography: current-density mapping in a hydrogen fuel cell, wind-speed profiling on meteorological towers, and North Atlantic ocean state from a global reanalysis. MIMONet improves on classical virtual-sensing baselines by 72-84%, including 84% for fuel-cell internal fields recovered from 10% sensor coverage and 83% for hub-height wind speed recovered from lower-level tower sensors. Most notably, it recovers sea-surface height, a field with no direct sensors, from its learned coupling to observed temperature and salinity at 4.1x lower error than the best classical predictor. These results establish operator-based virtual sensing as a practical route to real-time field observability in systems where the states that matter most cannot be measured directly.

cs.LG

Quantum oscillation spectroscopy of Fermi-surface topologies in tetralayer graphene

Quantum oscillations offer a direct probe of Fermi-surface topology and electronic degeneracy, yet disentangling both simultaneously across the Lifshitz transitions of multiband systems has remained an open experimental challenge. Here, we use Shubnikov-de Haas spectroscopy on a high-mobility, dual-gated Bernal-stacked tetralayer graphene (B-4LG) device to quantitatively reconstruct the complete sequence of six distinct Fermi-surface topologies-gully, annular, singly connected, and multiband pockets. The extracted oscillation frequencies determine the extremal momentum-space areas and their spin, valley, and gully-resolved degeneracies, in quantitative agreement with our tight-binding calculations. We further show that a perpendicular magnetic-field, combined with displacement-field lifts the valley degeneracy through an orbital-Zeeman coupling, producing a single-particle valley splitting of several $meV$, far larger than in bilayer or trilayer graphene. Our work demonstrates a framework for tracking Fermi-surface topologies and their flavor degeneracies in multiband quantum materials.

cond-mat.mes-hall

Agentic Physical AI toward a Domain-Specific Foundation Model for Energy Systems: A Case Study on Nuclear Reactor Control

The prevailing paradigm in AI for physical systems: scaling general-purpose foundation models toward universal multimodal reasoning, confronts a barrier at the control interface. Frontier vision-language models achieve only 50-53% accuracy on basic quantitative physics tasks, behaving as approximate guessers that preserve semantic plausibility while violating physical constraints. Safety-critical control demands outcome-space guarantees over executed actions, not parameter-space imitation. Here we present a pathway toward domain-specific foundation models through compact language models operating as Agentic Physical AI: policy optimization driven by physics-based simulator validation rather than perceptual inference. We train a 360M-parameter model on synthetic nuclear reactor scenarios scaled from 10^3 to 10^5 examples. Scaling produces strong, regime-dependent reliability gains under nominal simulated conditions, with variance collapse of approximately 500x and elimination of >10% terminal-power excursions on the sampled distribution. Despite balanced exposure to four actuation families, the model concentrates 95% of runtime execution on a single-bank strategy, without reinforcement learning or reward engineering. Representations transfer across simulators without architectural change. We position the system as a candidate decision component within a verification, monitoring, and defense-in-depth architecture, not as a stand-alone safety solution: the demonstrated behavior speaks to closed-loop reliability on a single-step task in simulation and does not yet address off-nominal operation, sensor faults, or uncertainty quantification.

cs.AI

Towards Data-Efficient Cross-Device Generalization of Grad-Shafranov Equilibria via Transfer Learning Neural Operator

Real-time reconstruction of magnetohydrodynamic equilibria is essential for plasma shaping, stability assessment and feedback control in magnetic confinement fusion. However, Grad-Shafranov equilibrium calculations remain largely device-specific and iterative, limiting their use in latency-constrained control settings. Existing neural approaches can accelerate individual equilibrium predictions, but they do not generally provide reusable models across changing plasma boundaries or tokamak geometries. Here we show that equilibrium reconstruction can be recast as a cross-device operator learning problem. We develop a domain-specific neural operator framework that maps geometry and profile parameters directly to the poloidal flux field, replacing repeated solve-on-demand computation with amortized operator inference. Using the analytically tractable Solov'ev family as a controlled Grad-Shafranov testbed, we generate equilibria across eight geometrically distinct tokamak-like configurations and benchmark five neural operator architectures under four transfer-learning strategies. Single-geometry pretraining gives poor transfer to unseen devices, whereas multi-geometry pretraining enables data-efficient adaptation. The Wavelet Neural Operator gives the strongest cross-geometry performance, reaching mean relative L2 errors below 4% with 100 labelled target equilibria and below 2% with full fine-tuning. The predicted magnetic fields satisfy the divergence-free constraint to numerical precision, and four architectures achieve millisecond or sub-millisecond inference. These results identify neural operator pretraining as a route towards reusable, real-time equilibrium inference across fusion device configurations.

cs.LG

Real-Time Sensing of Inaccessible Physical Fields via an Edge-Deployable Hardware-Portable Graph Neural Operator

Real-time inference of inaccessible interior physical fields from sparse boundary observations is a fundamental but unresolved problem in scientific machine learning, with direct relevance to safety-critical monitoring across many engineering applications. Existing neural operators achieve high accuracy but leave deployment to embedded edge platforms unaddressed. Here we introduce VIRSO (Virtual Irregular Real-Time Sparse Operator), the first neural operator with a unique spatial-spectral architecture that explicitly addresses edge-deployment hardware. VIRSO learns a nonlinear mapping from sparse, geometrically disjoint boundary inputs to spatially continuous interior multiphysics fields on irregular unstructured meshes through a spectral-spatial decomposition explicitly aligned with hardware execution: a compute-bound graph spectral pathway and a memory-bandwidth-bound spatial-aggregation pathway, each independently characterized on datacenter and embedded accelerators. The design reduces the inference energy-delay product by 29$\times$ relative to the vanilla graph-operator baseline (206 J$\cdot$ms $\to$ 7.0 J$\cdot$ms on an NVIDIA H200) and enables 17.0 samples/s embedded inference on an NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano within 7.06 W board-level power, without modification. A mesh-density-adaptive graph construction strategy (V-KNN) simultaneously improves accuracy and reduces graph edge count by 34%. Across three benchmarks with reconstruction ratios from 47:1 to 156:1, VIRSO achieves mean relative $L_2$ errors below 1% with fewer parameters than operator baselines and delivers an inference speedup of $\approx 10^4$ times over the high-fidelity reference solver. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of a single-digit-watt neural operator, establishing hardware co-design as a missing ingredient in operator-based inference and a tractable path to real-time deployment.

cs.LG

Anisotropic Crystallization Kinetics and Interfacial Dynamics of Phase-Change Material Sb$_2$S$_3$ from Machine Learning Force Field Simulations

The phase-change material antimony sulfide (Sb$_2$S$_3$) relies on rapid and reversible phase transitions between crystalline and amorphous states, which are critical for their performance in data storage and photonics applications. In this work, a machine learning force field is developed based on the moment tensor potential approach, allowing us to understand the atomistic origin of the structural evolution and crystallization kinetics in Sb$_2$S$_3$ for the first time, by enabling large-scale molecular dynamics simulations (up to 7680 atoms for 40 ns). Sb$_2$S$_3$ shows anisotropic growth rates with the [100] facet exhibiting the fastest growth due to the strong Sb-S covalent bonding along its quasi-1D ribbon-like structure of its crystalline phase. The activation energy for crystal growth is found to be 0.55-0.57 eV, whereas that for diffusion is around 1.16-1.56 eV. The lower activation energy for crystal growth indicates that its heterogeneous crystallization is interface controlled rather than diffusion limited, unlike GST and GeTe with atomic attachment at the solid-liquid interface being energetically favoured over long range atomic transport. These findings provide key insights into the structural, thermodynamic, and kinetic properties of Sb$_2$S$_3$, paving the way for optimizing its functionality including switching speed, reliability, and energy efficiency.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci

Stochastic Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics for Stochastic Mechanics Problems

Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH_ is a mesh-free Lagrangian method renowned for modeling large deformations and free-surface flows, yet classical formulations remain confined to deterministic systems. We introduce Stochastic SPH (S-SPH), which employs orthogonal Polynomial Chaos expansions to represent uncertainties in system parameters, forcing functions, and boundary or initial conditions, while spatial variation is captured via the SPH kernel. Random fields are discretized through Karhunen-Loève expansions, and a Galerkin projection in the polynomial basis transforms the underlying SPDE into a coupled system of ordinary differential equations governing the time evolution of expansion coefficients. To enforce Dirichlet and Neumann conditions in a mesh-free context, ghost-particle techniques augmented by a gradient-correction matrix are employed, and a predictor-corrector integration scheme ensures numerical stability. We validate S-SPH on benchmark problems, including one-dimensional advection with stochastic advection speed, inviscid Burgers' equations with random initial amplitudes, and two-dimensional Burgers' flows with uncertain Fourier-mode initial fields and viscosity, demonstrating excellent agreement with Monte Carlo simulation statistics of mean and variance. Remarkably, S-SPH achieves up to three orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost relative to direct sampling approaches. The proposed framework thus provides an efficient, accurate, and fully mesh-free methodology for uncertainty quantification in complex mechanics applications.

cs.CE

When Spike Sparsity Does Not Translate to Deployed Cost: VS-WNO on Jetson Orin Nano

Spiking neural operators are appealing for neuromorphic edge computing because event-driven substrates can, in principle, translate sparse activity into lower latency and energy. Whether that advantage survives deployment on commodity edge-GPU software stacks, however, remains unclear. We study this question on a Jetson Orin Nano 8 GB using five pretrained variable-spiking wavelet neural operator (VS-WNO) checkpoints and five matched dense wavelet neural operator (WNO) checkpoints on the Darcy rectangular benchmark. On a reference-aligned path, VS-WNO exhibits substantial algorithmic sparsity, with mean spike rates decreasing from 54.26% at the first spiking layer to 18.15% at the fourth. On a deployment-style request path, however, this sparsity does not reduce deployed cost: VS-WNO reaches 59.6 ms latency and 228.0 mJ dynamic energy per inference, whereas dense WNO reaches 53.2 ms and 180.7 mJ, while also achieving slightly lower reference-path error (1.77% versus 1.81%). Nsight Systems indicates that the request path remains launch-dominated and dense rather than sparsity-aware: for VS-WNO, cudaLaunchKernel accounts for 81.6% of CUDA API time within the latency window, and dense convolution kernels account for 53.8% of GPU kernel time; dense WNO shows the same pattern. On this Jetson-class GPU stack, spike sparsity is measurable but does not reduce deployed cost because the runtime does not suppress dense work as spike activity decreases.

cs.LG

Neuroscience Inspired Graph Operators Towards Edge-Deployable Virtual Sensing for Irregular Geometries

Predicting full-field physics through the real-time virtual sensing of engineering systems can enhance limited physical sensors but often requires sparse-to-dense reconstruction, complex multiphysics, and highly irregular geometries as well as strict latency and energy constraints for edge-deployability. Neural operators have been presented as a potential candidate for such applications but few architectures exist that explicitly address power consumption. Spiking neuron integration can provide a potential solution when integrated on neuromorphic hardware but the current existing neuron models result in severe performance degradation towards regression-based virtual sensing. To address the performance concerns and edge-constraints, we present the Variable Spiking Graph Neural Operator (VS-GNO) which integrates a sophisticated spectral-spatial convolutional analysis and a previously developed Variable Spiking Neuron (VSN) and energy-error balance loss function. With a non-spiking $L_2$ error baseline of $0.4\%$, VS-GNO can provide a reconstruction error of $0.71\%$ with $15\%$ average spiking in its spectral-only form and $1.04\%$ with $24.5\%$ spiking in its entire form. These results position VS-GNO as a promising step towards energy-efficient, edge-deployable neural operators for real-time sparse-to-dense virtual sensing in complex, highly irregular engineering environments.

cs.LG

Beyond Uniform Sampling: Synergistic Active Learning and Input Denoising for Robust Neural Operators

Neural operators have emerged as fast surrogate models for physics simulations, yet they remain acutely vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, a critical liability for safety-critical digital twin deployments. We present a synergistic defense that combines active learning-based data generation with an input denoising architecture. The active learning component adaptively probes model weaknesses using differential evolution attacks, then generates targeted training data at discovered vulnerability locations while an adaptive smooth-ratio safeguard preserves baseline accuracy. The input denoising component augments the operator architecture with a learnable bottleneck that filters adversarial noise while retaining physics-relevant features. On the viscous Burgers' equation benchmark, the combined approach achieves a 2.04% combined error (1.21% baseline + 0.83% robustness), representing an 87% reduction relative to standard training (15.42% combined) and outperforming both active learning alone (3.42%) and input denoising alone (5.22%). More broadly, our results, combined with cross-architecture vulnerability analysis from prior work, suggest that optimal training data for neural operators is architecture-dependent: because different architectures concentrate sensitivity in distinct input subspaces, uniform sampling cannot adequately cover the vulnerability landscape of all models. These findings have potential implications for the deployment of neural operators in safety-critical energy systems including nuclear reactor monitoring.

cs.LG

Gradient-Free Continual Learning in Spiking Neural Networks via Inter-Spike Interval Regularization

Continual learning, the ability to acquire new tasks sequentially without forgetting prior knowledge, is essential for deploying neural networks in dynamic real-world environments, from nuclear digital twin monitoring to grid-edge fault detection. Existing synaptic importance methods, such as Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC) and Synaptic Intelligence (SI), rely on gradient computation, making them incompatible with neuromorphic hardware that lacks backpropagation support. We propose ISI-CV, the first gradient-free synaptic importance metric for SNN continual learning, derived from the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of Inter-Spike Intervals (ISIs). Neurons that fire regularly (low CV) encode stable, task-relevant features and are protected from overwriting; neurons with irregular firing are permitted to adapt freely. ISI-CV requires only spike time counters and integer arithmetic, all of which are native to every neuromorphic chip. We evaluate on four benchmarks of increasing difficulty: Split-MNIST, Permuted-MNIST, Split-FashionMNIST, and Split-N-MNIST using real Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS) event data. Across three seeds, ISI-CV achieves zero forgetting (AF = 0.000 +/- 0.000) on Split-MNIST and Split-FashionMNIST, near-zero forgetting on Permuted-MNIST (AF = 0.001 +/- 0.000), and the highest accuracy with the lowest forgetting on real neuromorphic DVS data (AA = 0.820 +/- 0.012, AF = 0.221 +/- 0.014). On N-MNIST, gradient-based methods produce unreliable importance estimates and perform worse than no regularization; ISI-CV avoids this failure by design.

cs.NE

SCNO: Spiking Compositional Neural Operator -- Towards a Neuromorphic Foundation Model for Nuclear PDE Solving

Neural operators have emerged as powerful surrogates for partial differential equation (PDE) solvers, yet they are typically trained as monolithic models for individual PDEs, require energy-intensive GPU hardware, and must be retrained from scratch when new physics emerge. We introduce the Spiking Compositional Neural Operator (SCNO), a modular architecture combining spiking and conventional components that addresses all three limitations. SCNO maintains a library of small spiking neural operator blocks, each trained on a single elementary differential operator (convection, diffusion, reaction), and composes them through a lightweight input-conditioned aggregator to solve coupled PDEs not seen during block training. A small correction network learns cross-coupling residuals while keeping all blocks and the aggregator frozen, preserving zero-forgetting modular expansion by construction. We evaluate SCNO on eight PDE families including five coupled systems and a nuclear-relevant 1-group neutron diffusion equation. SCNO with correction achieves the lowest relative $L^2$ error on four of five coupled PDEs, outperforming both a monolithic spiking DeepONet (by up to 62%, mean over 3 seeds) and a standard ANN DeepONet (by up to 65%), while requiring only 95K trainable parameters versus 462K for the monolithic baseline. To our knowledge, this is the first compositional spiking neural operator and the first proof-of-concept for modular neuromorphic PDE solving with built-in forgetting-free expansion.

cs.LG

Learning the Stellar Structure Equations via Self-supervised Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Stellar astrophysics relies critically on accurate descriptions of the physical conditions inside stars. Traditional solvers such as \texttt{MESA} (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics), which employ adaptive finite-difference methods, can become computationally expensive and challenging to scale for large stellar population synthesis ($>10^9$ stars). In this work, we present an self-supervised physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework that provides a mesh-free and fully differentiable approach to solving the stellar structure equations under hydrostatic and thermal equilibrium. The model takes as input the stellar boundary conditions (at the center and surface) together with the chemical composition, and learns continuous radial profiles for mass $M_r(r)$, pressure $P(r)$, density $ρ(r)$, temperature $T(r)$, and luminosity $L_r(r)$ by enforcing the governing structure equations through physics-based loss terms. To incorporate realistic microphysics, we introduce auxiliary neural networks that approximate the equation of state and opacity tables as smooth, differentiable functions of the local thermodynamic state. These surrogates replace traditional tabulated inputs and enable end-to-end training. Once trained for a given star, the model produces continuous solutions across the entire radial domain without requiring discretization or interpolation. Validation against benchmark \texttt{MESA} models across a range of stellar masses yields a Mean Relative Absolute Error of $3.06\%$ and an average $R^2$ score of $99.98\%$. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration that the stellar structure equations can be solved in a fully self-supervised and data-free fashion employing PINNs. This work establishes a foundation for scalable, physics-informed emulation of stellar interiors and opens the door to future extensions toward time-dependent stellar evolution.

astro-ph.SR

TrustFed: Enabling Trustworthy Medical AI under Data Privacy Constraints

Protecting patient privacy remains a fundamental barrier to scaling machine learning across healthcare institutions, where centralizing sensitive data is often infeasible due to ethical, legal, and regulatory constraints. Federated learning offers a promising alternative by enabling privacy-preserving, multi-institutional training without sharing raw patient data; however, real-world deployments face severe challenges from data heterogeneity, site-specific biases, and class imbalance, which degrade predictive reliability and render existing uncertainty quantification methods ineffective. Here, we present TrustFed, a federated uncertainty quantification framework that provides distribution-free, finite-sample coverage guarantees under heterogeneous and imbalanced healthcare data, without requiring centralized access. TrustFed introduces a representation-aware client assignment mechanism that leverages internal model representations to enable effective calibration across institutions, along with a soft-nearest threshold aggregation strategy that mitigates assignment uncertainty while producing compact and reliable prediction sets. Using over 430,000 medical images across six clinically distinct imaging modalities, we conduct one of the most comprehensive evaluations of uncertainty-aware federated learning in medical imaging, demonstrating robust coverage guarantees across datasets with diverse class cardinalities and imbalance regimes. By validating TrustFed at this scale and breadth, our study advances uncertainty-aware federated learning from proof-of-concept toward clinically meaningful, modality-agnostic deployment, positioning statistically guaranteed uncertainty as a core requirement for next-generation healthcare AI systems.

cs.LG