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Spyridon M. Tzaninis

Publications and source records attributed to Spyridon M. Tzaninis.

6 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

A characterization of ruin-inducing probability measures in a renewal risk model

In this work, we derive a complete characterization of all ruin-inducing probability measures that preserve the structure of a given compound renewal process in terms of suitable pairs of functions $(γ,δ)$. This result allows us to obtain an explicit representation of the infinite-time ruin probability as an expectation under any ruin-inducing probability measure. A key feature of our approach is that the construction of these measures does not rely on the existence of moment generating functions, and is therefore applicable to heavy-tailed claim size distributions. The proposed framework includes the classical Esscher transform as a special case.

math.PR↗
arXiv2024

A characterization of equivalent martingale probability measures in a mixed renewal risk model with applications in Risk Theory

If a given aggregate process $S$ is a compound mixed renewal process under a probability measure $P$, we provide a characterization of all probability measures $Q$ on the domain of $P$ such that $Q$ and $P$ are progressively equivalent and $S$ is converted into a compound mixed Poisson process under $Q$. This result extends earlier works of Delbaen & Haezendonck [2], Embrechts & Meister [5], Lyberopoulos & Macheras [11], and of the authors [14]. Implications to the ruin problem and to the computation of premium calculation principles in an insurance market possessing the property of no free lunch with vanishing risk are also discussed.

math.PR↗
arXiv2024

Extensions of Panjer's recursion for mixed compound distributions

In actuarial practice, the usual independence assumptions for the collective risk model are often violated, implying a growing need for considering more general models that incorporate dependence. To this purpose, the present paper studies the mixed counterpart of the classical Panjer family of claim number distributions and their compound version, by allowing the parameters of the distributions to be viewed as random variables. Under the assumptions that the claim size process is conditionally i.i.d. and (conditionally) mutually independent of the claim counts, we provide a recursive algorithm for the computation of the probability mass function of the aggregate claim sizes. The case of a compound Panjer distribution with exchangeable claim sizes is also studied. For the sake of completeness, our results are illustrated by various numerical examples.

math.PR↗
arXiv2020

A characterization of progressively equivalent probability measures preserving the structure of a compound mixed renewal process

Generalizing earlier works of Delbaen & Haezendonck [5] as well as of [18] and [16] for given compound mixed renewal process S under a probability measure P, we characterize all those probability measures Q on the domain of P such that Q and P are progressively equivalent and S remains a compound mixed renewal process under Q with improved properties. As a consequence, we prove that any compound mixed renewal process can be converted into a compound mixed Poisson process through a change of measures. Applications related to the ruin problem and to the computation of premium calculation principles in an insurance market without arbitrage opportunities are discussed in [26] and [27], respectively.

math.PR↗
arXiv2020

A characterization of equivalent martingale measures in a renewal risk model with applications to premium calculation principles

Generalizing earlier work of Delbaen and Haezendonck for given compound renewal process $S$ under a probability measure $P$ we characterize all probability measures $Q$ on the domain of $P$ such that $Q$ and $P$ are progressively equivalent and $S$ remains a compound renewal process under $Q$. As a consequence, we prove that any compound renewal process can be converted into a compound Poisson process through a change of measures and we show how this approach is related to premium calculation principles.

math.PR↗