arXiv subjects

Srinivasan Keshav

Publications and source records attributed to Srinivasan Keshav.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Forecasting Earth Surface Change in Embedding Space

Repeated satellite imagery permits understanding of how our planet changes over time, letting us predict its future and plan mitigating actions. Most existing studies that rely on a time series of satellite observations forecast the spectral values at each pixel for a future target date. However, clouds, shadows, and sensor noise often corrupt these observations, so that spectral forecasters waste much of their capacity on low-level features or noise rather than real change. With the advent of Earth foundation models, we argue that forecasting in embedding space is a feasible and more effective alternative. To this end, we design a token space that handles irregular histories from different sensors and foundation models and supports forecasts at any query date. Tokens from this space are inputs to our proposed forecaster, E$^2$Forecast, which is a transformer with two branches: a Gaussian branch that directly predicts a mean point forecast and per-dimension standard deviations, and a rectified-flow branch that generates forecast ensembles. On Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 benchmarks, forecasting embeddings instead of spectral values halves the cosine distance (from 0.20 to 0.10) and greatly reduces overconfidence, lowering the z-score standard deviation from 2.63 to 1.22. By comparing new observations with its forecasts, E$^2$Forecast can also detect anomalous changes without labels or retraining, raising F$_1$ from 41.58 to 48.70 on a global benchmark. This consistent superiority is validated on nine remote sensing foundation models. Beyond change detection, we believe our approach advances the field by permitting effective reuse of diverse pretrained task heads. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ucam-eo/e2forecast.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Earth embeddings are decomposable records of the land surface

Ecological monitoring, carbon accounting and biodiversity assessment increasingly rely on annual Earth embeddings--learned vectors that compress a year of satellite observation for every ten-meter pixel on Earth, consumed in place of the imagery itself. What these vectors mean has not been established. Here we decompose two widely used embedding products and show that they contain individual ecological features, including fire, forest clearing and crop type, validated against independent reference data on events across six continents. The recovered concepts date abrupt canopy loss to the first post-disturbance growing season and resolve severity well enough to separate prescribed fire from wildfire. Small fires that recover quickly are detectable in one product but not the other, which instead separates crops more strongly.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

PiCo: Physics-Informed Concept Probing for Geo-Foundation Models

Geo-foundation models (GFMs) are typically evaluated by downstream task predictive performance, revealing little about which physical features they are sensitive to or use in prediction. This limits developers' ability to test hypotheses about model behaviour and users' ability to select models for new tasks. We propose Physics-Informed Concept Probing (PiCo), a post-hoc framework for explaining GFM predictions. PiCo identifies concept vectors in a GFM's embedding space by generating synthetic multispectral satellite observations from a 3D radiative transfer model coupled with a game engine. These vectors reveal physical sensitivities that inform domain-based hypotheses about downstream performance. Projecting embeddings onto these concept vectors produces low-dimensional representations for quantifying concept importance in making predictions. We evaluate PiCo on three GFMs with different input modalities using seven physical concepts covering forest leaf optics and canopy structure. In ground-cover estimation, RGB restriction reduces dry-matter sensitivity and disproportionately degrades predictions for dry vegetation and bare ground, supporting a hypothesis derived from sensitivity analysis. For hierarchical forest type and tree species classification, concept representations retain 70.0-93.8% of full-embedding accuracy. Models capture similar physical contrasts between classes, such as structural differences between broadleaf forest and cleared ground and leaf-water-content differences between oak and beech, yet differ in the strength of these contrasts and the concepts driving classification. PiCo thus provides a physical basis for hypothesis testing and model assessment, with potential applicability beyond Earth observation wherever forward models enable controlled simulation and pretrained embeddings are accessible for probing.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Interpolation of GEDI Biomass Estimates with Calibrated Uncertainty Quantification

Wall-to-wall biomass density estimation from NASA's GEDI mission requires interpolating sparse LIDAR observations across heterogeneous landscapes. While Random Forest and XGBoost are widely used, they predict each location independently from satellite features, without adapting to the varying difficulty of heterogeneous landscapes. We introduce Attentive Neural Processes (ANPs), a probabilistic meta-learning architecture that explicitly conditions predictions on local observation sets as well as geospatial foundation model embeddings. ANPs learn a flexible spatial covariance approximator that is more uncertain in complex landscapes and less in homogeneous areas. We validate this approach across five distinct biomes ranging from tropical Amazonian forests to boreal, temperate, and alpine ecosystems, demonstrating that ANPs achieve competitive accuracy while maintaining uncertainty calibration. We demonstrate a scalable, empirically calibrated alternative to ensemble architectures for continental-scale biomass mapping.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Below-ground Fungal Biodiversity Can be Monitored Using Self-Supervised Learning Satellite Features

Mycorrhizal fungi are vital to terrestrial ecosystem functioning. Yet monitoring their biodiversity at landscape scales is often unfeasible due to time and cost constraints. Current predictions suggest that 90% of mycorrhizal diversity hotspots remain unprotected, opening questions of how to broadly and effectively map underground fungal communities. We show that self-supervised learning (SSL) applied to satellite imagery can predict below-ground ectomycorrhizal fungal richness across diverse environments. Our models explain over half the variance in species richness across ~12,000 field samples spanning Europe and Asia. SSL-derived features are the most informative tested predictor group, and outperform each of the established climate, soil, and land cover baselines. We achieve a 10,000-fold increase in spatial resolution over existing techniques, moving from 1km landscape averages to 10m habitat-scale observations. As satellite observations are dynamic rather than static, this enables temporal monitoring of below-ground biodiversity at landscape scales for the first time. We apply this approach across two UK National Park woodlands, where ancient forests are predicted to have high but declining ectomycorrhizal diversity, marking key areas for further field verification. These results establish SSL satellite features as a scalable tool for extending sparse field observations to continuous, high-resolution biodiversity maps for monitoring the invisible half of terrestrial ecosystems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Geospatial embeddings detect old-growth forests but buffered spatial validation narrows their advantage over Sentinel features

Old-growth forests develop over centuries under minimal anthropogenic disturbance, producing structurally complex and biodiverse stands. In Europe, protecting them requires mapping that is accurate for individual forest parcels yet deployable continent-wide. Geospatial foundation model (GFM) embeddings enable label-scarce land classification, but their value for old-growth detection remains unknown. Here, we map old-growth forests across 211,893 ha of Romania's Southern Carpathians, a beech-spruce landscape typical of the Alpine Biogeographic Region. We construct high-confidence, expert-informed reference labels for old-growth and non-old-growth parcels. We add AlphaEarth, TESSERA v2 and Sentinel-1/2 features to a common baseline of topographic and human-access predictors, then compare them under spatially blocked validation with and without 10 km train-test buffers to limit residual autocorrelation. With buffering, GFM and Sentinel-1/2 predictors increase precision-recall AUC by 0.21-0.25 [95% CIs: 0.15-0.34] relative to baseline, indicating spectral data contain a spatially robust old-growth signal. With a PR-AUC of 0.84 [0.79-0.88], TESSERA outperforms Sentinel-1/2 (+0.08 [+0.05 to +0.11]) and AlphaEarth (+0.08 [+0.04 to +0.12]) under unbuffered spatial validation. At a 10 km buffer, however, this advantage narrows to +0.04 [-0.01 to +0.11] and +0.03 [-0.04 to +0.10], intervals consistent with no difference. At 10 m resolution, convolutional neural networks add no benefit over pixel-based XGBoost. Comparisons with four national- and continental-scale products show the importance of non-old-growth labels, and reveal 81% agreement between our predictions and a field-calibrated map. We conclude that buffered spatial validation is vital when transferring old-growth detection models to unseen landscapes, and provide our labels and predictions for future work.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Annual Earth-observation embeddings encode wildfire disturbance and support simplified burned area mapping

Medium-resolution (10-30 m) burned area mapping is vital for monitoring wildfires and their impacts, but remains difficult to scale. Existing methods require either curated fire-specific imagery or dense time-series analysis. Here, we tested whether annual Earth-observation embeddings retain wildfire disturbance signals sufficiently to map burned areas without either requirement. Using Tessera and AlphaEarth embeddings, we tested individual burn-scar delineation, mapping of all same-year fires within an area, regional wall-to-wall mapping, cross-continental transfer, and intra-annual fire timing. Tessera strongly encoded wildfire disturbance, allowing even linear models to separate burned from unburned pixels; the signal was weaker in AlphaEarth. Models trained on a single Tessera embedding matched or exceeded equivalent models using paired pre- and post-fire HLS imagery, and outperformed post-fire imagery alone. The same approach mapped all same-year fires within benchmark scenes (F1 = 0.90). Applied across California, with no California fire data used for downstream training, it recovered 97% of reference burned area and detected substantially more small and medium-sized fires than GABAM or MCD64A1. Separately, a model trained on 2018-2021 US fires transferred without retraining to 88 European fires from 2024-2025 (F1 = 0.88). For well-detected fires, ignition timing was recovered with a mean absolute error of 13 days. Performance declined for fires ignited near the end of the calendar year, and wall-to-wall deployment produced systematic false positives in some unseen landscapes. Annual embeddings nevertheless achieve high segmentation accuracy while moving the burden of dense time series processing upstream, providing a promising path towards simpler regional burned area mapping.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Shading-Aware Rooftop PV Placement

Rooftop photovoltaic (PV) design requires careful panel placement to make effective use of potentially limited roof space and available sunlight. Existing simplified roof models can miss objects and superstructures that shade panels. We simulate rooftop irradiance using hourly weather and a terrain horizon, computing shadows from nearby buildings, trees, and roof superstructures rendered from the Sun's viewpoint. Our method (i) infers existing panel layouts from imagery and estimates their yield, (ii) relocates these panels to improve the yield, and (iii) generates shading-aware layouts for new installations. We compare modeled yield with production records from 11 Swiss installations and evaluate new layouts in simulation on 19 additional rural roofs. Without knowledge of any electrical or system specifications, we obtain a median daily correlation with measured production of 0.982. Absolute energy estimates remain sensitive to system specifications. Comparing new layouts with equal panel counts, accounting for neighborhood and roof-detail shading changes the position or orientation of an average of 38.9\% of panels per roof. These layouts increase modeled annual yield by up to 7.91\% compared with layouts designed without accounting for neighborhood and roof-detail shadows. We publicly release our tool for modeling and designing rooftop PV installations with terrain, neighborhood, and roof-detail shading at https://github.com/tobiasvonarx/shading-aware-pv.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

How Usable Are Geospatial Foundation Models? A Systematic Evaluation of 89 Models

Geospatial foundation models (GeoFMs) offer transformative potential for environmental monitoring, yet adoption among ecologists is uneven. Most evaluations are model-centric, focusing on architecture and benchmark accuracy, which overlooks whether the systems are usable by their intended audiences. To address this gap, we first conducted a pilot expert elicitation survey with ecology and conservation scientists that helped us identify misalignments between current GeoFM development priorities and their needs. Informed by these findings and based on HCI theory, we created a seven-dimension evaluation covering Access & Deployment, Interaction & Customization, Trust & Transparency, Community & Support, Scientific Permanence, Multilingual Support, and Offline Usability. Then, two raters applied this rubric to 89 GeoFMs. We found distinct accessibility gaps where nearly a third provide no support to practitioners beyond their source code. Dimensions along which ratings were highly consistent function as field-level diagnostics, revealing where there is room for improvement for current GeoFMs.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

TESSERA v2: Scaling Pixel-wise Earth Foundation Models

Pixel-wise Earth-observation (EO) foundation models are now achieving state-of-the-art performance via generated spatial embeddings. However, how these models scale and how best to spend a pretraining budget remain poorly understood. We present the largest controlled scaling study for EO to date: 395 training runs within a fixed pixel-wise Barlow Twins family, each evaluated on 15 diverse downstream tasks. We find that pretraining loss barely predicts downstream performance (|Pearson r| < 0.2), so selecting models by loss wastes a large share of the compute. We also find that, as the training budget grows, the encoder and the data should grow together while the projector stays fixed, which gives a simple rule for allocating compute. Using this rule, we train a family of pixel-wise teachers (0.5B, 1B, and 2B) and distil the largest into compact students for embeddings-as-data deployment. In aggregate, our 44-million-parameter distilled student outperforms every open and proprietary embedding product we test, several of them an order of magnitude larger. These students produce Matryoshka representations that are inexpensive to serve: a 16-dimensional prefix keeps 92% of the full 128-dimensional performance at 1/8 of the storage. Together, these results give a concrete, empirically grounded recipe for scaling pixel-wise EO foundation models: train large encoders, select by downstream performance, and distil into flexible student models. We plan to release global 10 m annual embeddings covering 2017-2025 as version 2 of the TESSERA foundation-model embeddings product. All code is available at: https://github.com/ucam-eo/tessera

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Energy Injection Identification enabled Disaggregation with Deep Multi-Task Learning

Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) offers a cost-effective method to obtain fine-grained appliance-level energy consumption in smart homes and building applications. However, the increasing adoption of behind-the-meter (BTM) energy sources such as solar panels and battery storage poses new challenges for conventional NILM methods that rely solely on at-the-meter data. The energy injected from the BTM sources can obscure the power signatures of individual appliances, leading to a significant decrease in NILM performance. To address this challenge, we present DualNILM, a deep multi-task learning framework designed for the dual tasks of appliance state recognition and injected energy identification. Using a Transformer-based architecture that integrates sequence-to-point and sequence-to-sequence strategies, DualNILM effectively captures multiscale temporal dependencies in the aggregate power consumption patterns, allowing for accurate appliance state recognition and energy injection identification. Extensive evaluation on self-collected and synthesized datasets demonstrates that DualNILM maintains an excellent performance for dual tasks in NILM, much outperforming conventional methods. Our work underscores the framework's potential for robust energy disaggregation in modern energy systems with renewable penetration. Synthetic photovoltaic augmented datasets with realistic injection simulation methodology are open-sourced at https://github.com/MathAdventurer/PV-Augmented-NILM-Datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TESSERA: Temporal Embeddings of Surface Spectra for Earth Representation and Analysis

Satellite Earth-observation (EO) time series in the optical and microwave ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum are often irregular due to orbital patterns and cloud obstruction. Compositing addresses these issues but loses information with respect to vegetation phenology, which is critical for many downstream tasks. Instead, we present TESSERA, a pixel-wise foundation model for multi-modal (Sentinel-1/2) EO time series that learns robust, label-efficient embeddings. During model training, TESSERA uses Barlow Twins and sparse random temporal sampling to enforce invariance to the selection of valid observations. We employ two key regularizers: global shuffling to decorrelate spatial neighborhoods and mix-based regulation to improve invariance under extreme sparsity. We find that for diverse classification, segmentation, and regression tasks, TESSERA embeddings deliver state-of-the-art accuracy with high label efficiency, often requiring only a small task head and minimal computation. To democratize access, adhere to FAIR - principles, and simplify use, we release global, annual, 10m, pixel-wise int8 embeddings together with open weights/code and lightweight adaptation heads, thus providing practical tooling for large-scale retrieval and inference at planetary scale. All code and data are available at: https://github.com/ucam-eo/tessera.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Neural Processes Maintain Calibrated Biomass Estimates Across Spatiotemporal Gaps and Disturbance

Monitoring deforestation-driven carbon emissions requires both spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of aboveground biomass density (AGBD) with calibrated uncertainty. NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provides reliable LIDAR-derived AGBD, but its orbital sampling causes irregular spatiotemporal coverage, and occasional operational interruptions, including a 13-month hibernation from March 2023 to April 2024, leave extended gaps in the observational record. Prior work has used machine learning approaches to fill GEDI's spatial gaps using satellite-derived features, but temporal interpolation of biomass through unobserved periods, particularly across active disturbance events, remains largely unaddressed. Moreover, standard ensemble methods for biomass mapping have been shown to produce systematically miscalibrated prediction intervals. To address these gaps, we extend the Attentive Neural Process (ANP) framework, previously applied to spatial biomass interpolation, to jointly sparse spatiotemporal settings using geospatial foundation model embeddings. We treat space and time symmetrically, empirically validating a form of space-for-time substitution in which observations from nearby locations at other times inform predictions at held-out periods. Our results demonstrate that the ANP produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across disturbance regimes, supporting its use in Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) applications that require reliable uncertainty quantification for forest carbon accounting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Embedding -based Crop Type Classification in the Groundnut Basin of Senegal

Crop type maps from satellite remote sensing are important tools for food security, local livelihood support and climate change mitigation in smallholder regions of the world, but most satellite-based methods are not well suited to smallholder conditions. To address this gap, we establish a four-part criteria for a useful embedding-based approach consisting of 1) performance, 2) plausibility, 3) transferability and 4) accessibility and evaluate geospatial foundation model (FM) embeddings -based approaches using TESSERA and AlphaEarth against current baseline methods for a region in the groundnut basin of Senegal. We find that the TESSERA -based approach to land cover and crop type mapping fulfills the selection criteria best, and in one temporal transfer example shows 28% higher accuracy compared to the next best method. These results indicate that TESSERA embeddings are an effective approach for crop type classification and mapping tasks in Senegal.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

PILA: Physics-Informed Low Rank Augmentation for Interpretable Earth Observation

Physically meaningful representations are essential for Earth Observation (EO), yet existing physical models are often simplified and incomplete. This leads to discrepancies between simulation and observations that hinder reliable forward model inversion. Common approaches to EO inversion either ignored this incompleteness or relied on case-specific preprocessing. More recent methods use physics-informed autoencoders but depend on auxiliary variables that are difficult to interpret and multiple regularizers that are difficult to balance. We propose Physics-Informed Low-Rank Augmentation (PILA), a framework that augments incomplete physical models using a learnable low-rank residual to improve flexibility, while remaining close to the governing physics. We evaluate PILA on two EO inverse problems involving diverse physical processes: forest radiative transfer inversion from optical remote sensing; and volcanic deformation inversion from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) displacement data. Across different domains, PILA yields more accurate and interpretable physical variables. For forest spectral inversion, it improves the separation of tree species and, compared to ground measurements, reduces prediction errors by 40-71\% relative to the state-of-the-art. For volcanic deformation, PILA's recovery of variables captures a major inflation event at the Akutan volcano in 2008, and estimates source depth, volume change, and displacement patterns that are consistent with prior studies that however required substantial additional preprocessing. Finally, we analyse the effects of model rank, observability, and physical priors, and suggest that PILA may offer an effective general pathway for inverting incomplete physical models even beyond the domain of Earth Observation. The code is available at https://github.com/yihshe/PILA.git.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Scaling Up Forest Vision with Synthetic Data

Accurate tree segmentation is a key step in extracting individual tree metrics from forest laser scans, and is essential to understanding ecosystem functions in carbon cycling and beyond. Over the past decade, tree segmentation algorithms have advanced rapidly due to developments in AI. However existing, public, 3D forest datasets are not large enough to build robust tree segmentation systems. Motivated by the success of synthetic data in other domains such as self-driving, we investigate whether similar approaches can help with tree segmentation. In place of expensive field data collection and annotation, we use synthetic data during pretraining, and then require only minimal, real forest plot annotation for fine-tuning. We have developed a new synthetic data generation pipeline to do this for forest vision tasks, integrating advances in game-engines with physics-based LiDAR simulation. As a result, we have produced a comprehensive, diverse, annotated 3D forest dataset on an unprecedented scale. Extensive experiments with a state-of-the-art tree segmentation algorithm and a popular real dataset show that our synthetic data can substantially reduce the need for labelled real data. After fine-tuning on just a single, real, forest plot of less than 0.1 hectare, the pretrained model achieves segmentations that are competitive with a model trained on the full scale real data. We have also identified critical factors for successful use of synthetic data: physics, diversity, and scale, paving the way for more robust 3D forest vision systems in the future. Our data generation pipeline and the resulting dataset are available at https://github.com/yihshe/CAMP3D.git.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Offline Energy-Optimal LLM Serving: Workload-Based Energy Models for LLM Inference on Heterogeneous Systems

The rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) has led to significant advances in natural language processing and text generation. However, the energy consumed through LLM model inference remains a major challenge for sustainable AI deployment. To address this problem, we model the workload-dependent energy consumption and runtime of LLM inference tasks on heterogeneous GPU-CPU systems. By conducting an extensive characterization study of several state-of-the-art LLMs and analyzing their energy and runtime behavior across different magnitudes of input prompts and output text, we develop accurate (R^2>0.96) energy and runtime models for each LLM. We employ these models to explore an offline, energy-optimal LLM workload scheduling framework. Through a case study, we demonstrate the advantages of energy and accuracy aware scheduling compared to existing best practices.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2024

Planetary computing for data-driven environmental policy-making

We make a case for "planetary computing" -- infrastructure to handle the ingestion, transformation, analysis and publication of global data products for furthering environmental science and enabling better informed policy-making. We draw on our experiences as a team of computer scientists working with environmental scientists on forest carbon and biodiversity preservation, and classify existing solutions by their flexibility in scalably processing geospatial data, and also how well they support building trust in the results via traceability and reproducibility. We identify research gaps in the intersection of computing and environmental science around how to handle continuously changing datasets that are often collected across decades and require careful access control rather than being fully open access.

cs.DC↗