arXiv subjects

Stéphane Bonhomme

Publications and source records attributed to Stéphane Bonhomme.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Higher-Order Neyman Orthogonality in Moment-Condition Models

We construct moment functions that are Neyman-orthogonal to a chosen order in parametric moment condition models involving nuisance parameters. These moment functions reduce sensitivity to estimation error in the nuisance parameters and, as such, offer a unified and tractable route to higher-order debiasing in a wide range of econometric models. The number of additional nuisance parameters required by our construction, beyond those already present in the original moment conditions, is independent of the order of orthogonalization and can be reduced to a single scalar if desired.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Orthogonal Moments in Likelihood Models

Many models, such as fixed-effect models for panel or network data, are hard to estimate because they feature nuisance parameters that are both numerous and estimated imprecisely. This, in general, causes an incidental-parameter problem in the estimator of the parameters of interest. The problem can be alleviated by working with an estimating equation whose expectation is insensitive to the value of the nuisance parameters. We discuss and contrast three notions of insensitivity, also called orthogonality, in the context of likelihood models: Neyman orthogonality, Neyman orthogonality to order q, and full orthogonality. Orthogonal moments are obtained by projecting the estimating equation on nested subspaces, which are spanned by, respectively, the scores of the nuisance parameters, the first q derivatives of the likelihood ratio with respect to the nuisance parameters, and all likelihood ratios of the model. We give explicit constructions in binary-choice, count-data, and nonlinear regression models.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Moment Restrictions for Nonlinear Panel Data Models with Feedback

Many panel data methods, while allowing for general dependence between covariates and time-invariant agent-specific heterogeneity, place strong a priori restrictions on feedback: how past outcomes, covariates, and heterogeneity map into future covariate levels. Ruling out feedback entirely, as often occurs in practice, is unattractive in many dynamic economic settings. We provide a general characterization of all feedback and heterogeneity robust (FHR) moment conditions for nonlinear panel data models and present constructive methods to derive feasible moment-based estimators for specific models. We characterize semiparametric efficiency bounds in this case, quantifying the information loss associated with accommodating feedback as well as providing insight into how to construct estimators with good efficiency properties in practice. When FHR moments point-identify the target parameter - the case we emphasize - we show they attain the efficiency bound associated with the full model. These results apply both to the finite dimensional parameter indexing the parametric part of the model as well as to estimands that involve averages over the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity or features of the feedback process. Lastly, we illustrate our methods by providing a complete characterization of all FHR moment functions in the multi-spell mixed proportional hazards model, and compute efficient moment functions for both model parameters and average effects in this setting.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

A Neyman-Orthogonalization Approach to the Incidental Parameter Problem in Likelihood Models

A popular approach to perform inference on a target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters is to construct estimating equations that are orthogonal to the nuisance parameters, in the sense that their expected first derivative is zero. Such first-order orthogonalization allows the estimator of the nuisance parameters to converge at a slower-than-parametric rate. It may, however, not suffice when the nuisance parameters are very imprecisely estimated. Leading examples are models for panel and network data that feature fixed effects. In this paper, we show how, in the conditional-likelihood setting, estimating equations can be constructed that are orthogonal to any chosen order q, in that their leading q expected derivatives are zero. This yields estimators of target parameters that are unaffected by the presence of nuisance parameters to order q. In an empirical illustration, we apply our method to a fixed-effect model of team production.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Identification in a Binary Choice Panel Data Model with a Predetermined Covariate

We study identification in a binary choice panel data model with a single \emph{predetermined} binary covariate (i.e., a covariate sequentially exogenous conditional on lagged outcomes and covariates). The choice model is indexed by a scalar parameter $θ$, whereas the distribution of unit-specific heterogeneity, as well as the feedback process that maps lagged outcomes into future covariate realizations, are left unrestricted. We provide a simple condition under which $θ$ is never point-identified, no matter the number of time periods available. This condition is satisfied in most models, including the logit one. We also characterize the identified set of $θ$ and show how to compute it using linear programming techniques. While $θ$ is not generally point-identified, its identified set is informative in the examples we analyze numerically, suggesting that meaningful learning about $θ$ may be possible even in short panels with feedback. As a complement, we report calculations of identified sets for an average partial effect, and find informative sets in this case as well.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Functional Differencing in Networks

Economic interactions often occur in networks where heterogeneous agents (such as workers or firms) sort and produce. However, most existing estimation approaches either require the network to be dense, which is at odds with many empirical networks, or they require restricting the form of heterogeneity and the network formation process. We show how the functional differencing approach introduced by Bonhomme (2012) in the context of panel data, can be applied in network settings to derive moment restrictions on model parameters and average effects. Those restrictions are valid irrespective of the form of heterogeneity, and they hold in both dense and sparse networks. We illustrate the analysis with linear and nonlinear models of matched employer-employee data, in the spirit of the model introduced by Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis (1999).

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

Minimizing Sensitivity to Model Misspecification

We propose a framework for estimation and inference when the model may be misspecified. We rely on a local asymptotic approach where the degree of misspecification is indexed by the sample size. We construct estimators whose mean squared error is minimax in a neighborhood of the reference model, based on one-step adjustments. In addition, we provide confidence intervals that contain the true parameter under local misspecification. As a tool to interpret the degree of misspecification, we map it to the local power of a specification test of the reference model. Our approach allows for systematic sensitivity analysis when the parameter of interest may be partially or irregularly identified. As illustrations, we study three applications: an empirical analysis of the impact of conditional cash transfers in Mexico where misspecification stems from the presence of stigma effects of the program, a cross-sectional binary choice model where the error distribution is misspecified, and a dynamic panel data binary choice model where the number of time periods is small and the distribution of individual effects is misspecified.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

Posterior Average Effects

Economists are often interested in estimating averages with respect to distributions of unobservables, such as moments of individual fixed-effects, or average partial effects in discrete choice models. For such quantities, we propose and study posterior average effects (PAE), where the average is computed conditional on the sample, in the spirit of empirical Bayes and shrinkage methods. While the usefulness of shrinkage for prediction is well-understood, a justification of posterior conditioning to estimate population averages is currently lacking. We show that PAE have minimum worst-case specification error under various forms of misspecification of the parametric distribution of unobservables. In addition, we introduce a measure of informativeness of the posterior conditioning, which quantifies the worst-case specification error of PAE relative to parametric model-based estimators. As illustrations, we report PAE estimates of distributions of neighborhood effects in the US, and of permanent and transitory components in a model of income dynamics.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2016

Estimating multivariate latent-structure models

A constructive proof of identification of multilinear decompositions of multiway arrays is presented. It can be applied to show identification in a variety of multivariate latent structures. Examples are finite-mixture models and hidden Markov models. The key step to show identification is the joint diagonalization of a set of matrices in the same nonorthogonal basis. An estimator of the latent-structure model may then be based on a sample version of this joint-diagonalization problem. Algorithms are available for computation and we derive distribution theory. We further develop asymptotic theory for orthogonal-series estimators of component densities in mixture models and emission densities in hidden Markov models.

math.ST↗