arXiv subjects

Stéphane Crépey

Publications and source records attributed to Stéphane Crépey.

25 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Gaussian Process Regression for Derivative Portfolio Modeling and Application to CVA Computations

Modeling counterparty risk is computationally challenging because it requires the simultaneous evaluation of all the trades with each counterparty under both market and credit risk. We present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach, which is well suited for OTC derivative portfolio valuation involved in CVA computation. Our approach avoids nested simulation or simulation and regression of cash flows by learning a Gaussian metamodel for the mark-to-market cube of a derivative portfolio. We model the joint posterior of the derivatives as a Gaussian process over function space, with the spatial covariance structure imposed on the risk factors. Monte-Carlo simulation is then used to simulate the dynamics of the risk factors. The uncertainty in portfolio valuation arising from the Gaussian process approximation is quantified numerically. Numerical experiments demonstrate the accuracy and convergence properties of our approach for CVA computations, including a counterparty portfolio of interest rate swaps.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2017

Invariance properties in the dynamic gaussian copula model *

We prove that the default times (or any of their minima) in the dynamic Gaussian copula model of Cr{é}pey, Jeanblanc, and Wu (2013) are invariance times in the sense of Cr{é}pey and Song (2017), with related invariance probability measures different from the pricing measure. This reflects a departure from the immersion property, whereby the default intensities of the surviving names and therefore the value of credit protection spike at default times. These properties are in line with the wrong-way risk feature of counterparty risk embedded in credit derivatives, i.e. the adverse dependence between the default risk of a counterparty and an underlying credit derivative exposure.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2017

Central Clearing Valuation Adjustment

This paper develops an XVA (costs) analysis of centrally cleared trading, parallel to the one that has been developed in the last years for bilateral transactions. We introduce a dynamic framework that incorporates the sequence of cash-flows involved in the waterfall of resources of a clearing house. The total cost of the clearance framework for a clearing member, called CCVA for central clearing valuation adjustment, is decomposed into a CVA corresponding to the cost of its losses on the default fund in case of defaults of other member, an MVA corresponding to the cost of funding its margins and a KVA corresponding to the cost of the regulatory capital and also of the capital at risk that the member implicitly provides to the CCP through its default fund contribution. In the end the structure of the XVA equations for bilateral and cleared portfolios is similar, but the input data to these equations are not the same, reflecting different financial network structures. The resulting XVA numbers differ, but, interestingly enough, they become comparable after scaling by a suitable netting ratio.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2017

Invariance times

On a probability space $(Ω,\mathcal{A},\mathbb{Q})$ we consider two filtrations $\mathbb{F}\subset \mathbb{G}$ and a $\mathbb{G}$ stopping time $θ$ such that the $\mathbb{G}$ predictable processes coincide with $\mathbb{F}$ predictable processes on $(0,θ]$. In this setup it is well-known that, for any $\mathbb{F}$ semimartingale $X$, the process $X^{θ-}$ ($X$ stopped "right before $θ$") is a $\mathbb{G}$ semimartingale.Given a positive constant $T$, we call $θ$ an invariance time if there exists a probability measure $\mathbb{P}$ equivalent to $\mathbb{Q}$ on $\mathcal{F}\_T$ such that, for any $(\mathbb{F},\mathbb{P})$ local martingale $X$, $X^{θ-}$ is a $(\mathbb{G},\mathbb{Q})$ local martingale. We characterize invariance times in terms of the $(\mathbb{F},\mathbb{Q})$ Azéma supermartingale of $θ$ and we derive a mild and tractable invariance time sufficiency condition. We discuss invariance times in mathematical finance and BSDE applications.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2016

Capital Valuation Adjustment and Funding Valuation Adjustment

In the aftermath of the 2007 global financial crisis, banks started reflecting into derivative pricing the cost of capital and collateral funding through XVA metrics. Here XVA is a catch-all acronym whereby X is replaced by a letter such as C for credit, D for debt, F for funding, K for capital and so on, and VA stands for valuation adjustment. This behaviour is at odds with economies where markets for contingent claims are complete, whereby trades clear at fair valuations and the costs for capital and collateral are both irrelevant to investment decisions. In this paper, we set forth a mathematical formalism for derivative portfolio management in incomplete markets for banks. A particular emphasis is given to the problem of finding optimal strategies for retained earnings which ensure a sustainable dividend policy.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2012

Counterparty Risk and Funding: The Four Wings of the TVA

The credit crisis and the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis have highlighted the native form of credit risk, namely the counterparty risk. The related Credit Valuation Adjustment, (CVA), Debt Valuation Adjustment (DVA), Liquidity Valuation Adjustment (LVA) and Replacement Cost (RC) issues, jointly referred to in this paper as Total Valuation Adjustment (TVA), have been thoroughly investigated in the theoretical papers [Cr12a] and [Cr12b]. The present work provides an executive summary and numerical companion to these papers, through which the TVA pricing problem can be reduced to Markovian pre-default TVA BSDEs. The first step consists in the counterparty clean valuation of a portfolio of contracts, which is the valuation in a hypothetical situation where the two parties would be risk-free and funded at a risk-free rate. In the second step, the TVA is obtained as the value of an option on the counterparty clean value process called Contingent Credit Default Swap (CCDS). Numerical results are presented for interest rate swaps in the Vasicek, as well as in the inverse Gaussian Hull-White short rate model, also allowing one to assess the related model risk issue.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2008

Reflected and doubly reflected BSDEs with jumps: a priori estimates and comparison

It is now established that under quite general circumstances, including in models with jumps, the existence of a solution to a reflected BSDE is guaranteed under mild conditions, whereas the existence of a solution to a doubly reflected BSDE is essentially equivalent to the so-called Mokobodski condition. As for uniqueness of solutions, this holds under mild integrability conditions. However, for practical purposes, existence and uniqueness are not enough. In order to further develop these results in Markovian set-ups, one also needs a (simply or doubly) reflected BSDE to be well posed, in the sense that the solution satisfies suitable bound and error estimates, and one further needs a suitable comparison theorem. In this paper, we derive such estimates and comparison results. In the last section, applicability of the results is illustrated with a pricing problem in finance.

math.PR↗