arXiv subjects

Stan Zachary

Publications and source records attributed to Stan Zachary.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2010

Inference and Optimal Design for Nearest-Neighbour Interaction Models

We consider problems of Bayesian inference for a spatial epidemic on a graph, where the final state of the epidemic corresponds to bond percolation, and where only the set or number of finally infected sites is observed. We develop appropriate Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, demonstrating their effectiveness, and we study problems of optimal experimental design. In particular, we demonstrate that for lattice-based processes an experiment on a sparsified lattice can yield more information on model parameters than one conducted on a complete lattice. We also prove some probabilistic results about the behaviour of estimators associated with large infected clusters.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2009

Loss networks

We review the theory of loss networks, including recent results on their dynamical behaviour. We give also some new results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2008

Convolutions of long-tailed and subexponential distributions

Convolutions of long-tailed and subexponential distributions play a major role in the analysis of many stochastic systems. We study these convolutions, proving some important new results through a simple and coherent approach, and showing also that the standard properties of such convolutions follow as easy consequences.

math.PR↗

arXiv2007

Stability of processor sharing networks with simultaneous resource requirements

We study the phenomenon of entrainment in processor sharing networks, whereby, while individual network resources have sufficient capacity to met demand, the requirement for simultaneous availability of resources means that a network may nevertheless be unstable. We show that instability occurs through poor control, and that, for a variety of network topologies, only small modifications to controls are required in order to ensure stability. For controls which possess a natural monotonicity property, we give some new results for the classification of the corresponding Markov processes, which lead to conditions both for stability and for instability.

math.PR↗

arXiv2006

A note on insensitivity in stochastic networks

We give a simple and direct treatment of insensitivity in stochastic networks which is quite general and which provides probabilistic insight into the phenomenon. In the case of multi-class networks, the results generalise those of Bonald and Proutiere (2002, 2003).

math.PR↗

arXiv2006

On the exact distributional asymptotics for the supremum of a random walk with increments in a class of light-tailed distributions

We study the distribution of the maximum $M$ of a random walk whose increments have a distribution with negative mean and belonging, for some $γ>0$, to a subclass of the class $\mathcal{S}_γ$--see, for example, Chover, Ney, and Wainger (1973). For this subclass we give a probabilistic derivation of the asymptotic tail distribution of $M$, and show that extreme values of $M$ are in general attained through some single large increment in the random walk near the beginning of its trajectory. We also give some results concerning the ``spatially local'' asymptotics of the distribution of $M$, the maximum of the stopped random walk for various stopping times, and various bounds.

math.PR↗

arXiv2005

The principle of a single big jump: discrete and continuous time modulated random walks with heavy-tailed increments

We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we exhibit natural conditions under which the asymptotics of the tail distribution of the overall maximum of S can be computed. We present results in discrete and in continuous time. In particular, in the absence of modulation, the process S in continuous time reduces to a Levy process with heavy-tailed Levy measure. A central point of the paper is that we make full use of the so-called ``principle of a single big jump'' in order to obtain both upper and lower bounds. Thus, the proofs are entirely probabilistic. The paper is motivated by queueing and Levy stochastic networks.

math.PR↗

arXiv2005

The probability of exceeding a high boundary on a random time interval for a heavy-tailed random walk

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely general stopping times, uniformity of convergence over all stopping times and a wide class of nonlinear boundaries. We also give some examples and counterexamples.

math.PR↗