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Stanislaus Maier-Paape

Publications and source records attributed to Stanislaus Maier-Paape.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

A General Framework for Portfolio Theory. Part II: drawdown risk measures

The aim of this paper is to provide several examples of convex risk measures necessary for the application of the general framework for portfolio theory of Maier-Paape and Zhu, presented in Part I of this series (arXiv:1710.04579 [q-fin.PM]). As alternative to classical portfolio risk measures such as the standard deviation we in particular construct risk measures related to the current drawdown of the portfolio equity. Combined with the results of Part I (arXiv:1710.04579 [q-fin.PM]), this allows us to calculate efficient portfolios based on a drawdown risk measure constraint.

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A General Framework for Portfolio Theory. Part I: theory and various models

Utility and risk are two often competing measurements on the investment success. We show that efficient trade-off between these two measurements for investment portfolios happens, in general, on a convex curve in the two dimensional space of utility and risk. This is a rather general pattern. The modern portfolio theory of Markowitz [H. Markowitz, Portfolio Selection, 1959] and its natural generalization, the capital market pricing model, [W. F. Sharpe, Mutual fund performance , 1966] are special cases of our general framework when the risk measure is taken to be the standard deviation and the utility function is the identity mapping. Using our general framework, we also recover the results in [R. T. Rockafellar, S. Uryasev and M. Zabarankin, Master funds in portfolio analysis with general deviation measures, 2006] that extends the capital market pricing model to allow for the use of more general deviation measures. This generalized capital asset pricing model also applies to e.g. when an approximation of the maximum drawdown is considered as a risk measure. Furthermore, the consideration of a general utility function allows to go beyond the "additive" performance measure to a "multiplicative" one of cumulative returns by using the log utility. As a result, the growth optimal portfolio theory [J. Lintner, The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets, 1965] and the leverage space portfolio theory [R. Vince, The Leverage Space Trading Model, 2009] can also be understood under our general framework. Thus, this general framework allows a unification of several important existing portfolio theories and goes much beyond.

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Existence and Uniqueness for the Multivariate Discrete Terminal Wealth Relative

In this paper the multivariate fractional trading ansatz of money management from Ralph Vince (Portfolio Management Formulas: Mathematical Trading Methods for the Futures, Options, and Stock Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1990) is discussed. In particular, we prove existence and uniqueness of an optimal f of the respective optimization problem under reasonable assumptions on the trade return matrix. This result generalizes a similar result for the univariate fractional trading ansatz. Furthermore, our result guarantees that the multivariate optimal f solutions can always be found numerically by steepest ascent methods.

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Risk averse fractional trading using the current drawdown

In this paper the fractional trading ansatz of money management is reconsidered with special attention to chance and risk parts in the goal function of the related optimization problem. By changing the goal function with due regards to other risk measures like current drawdowns, the optimal fraction solutions reflect the needs of risk averse investors better than the original optimal f solution of Ralph Vince. Keywords: fractional trading, optimal f, current drawdown, terminal wealth relative, risk aversion

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Survey on log-normally distributed market-technical trend data

In this survey, a short introduction in the recent discovery of log-normally distributed market-technical trend data will be given. The results of the statistical evaluation of typical market-technical trend variables will be presented. It will be shown that the log-normal assumption fits better to empirical trend data than to daily returns of stock prices. This enables to mathematically evaluate trading systems depending on such variables. In this manner, a basic approach to an anti cyclic trading system will be given as an example.

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Correctness of Backtest Engines

In recent years several trading platforms appeared which provide a backtest engine to calculate historic performance of self designed trading strategies on underlying candle data. The construction of a correct working backtest engine is, however, a subtle task as shown by Maier-Paape and Platen (cf. arXiv:1412.5558 [q-fin.TR]). Several platforms are struggling on the correctness. In this work, we discuss the problem how the correctness of backtest engines can be verified. We provide models for candles and for intra-period prices which will be applied to conduct a proof of correctness for a given backtest engine if the here provided tests on specific model candles are successful. Furthermore, we hint to algorithmic considerations in order to allow for a fast implementation of these tests necessary for the proof of correctness.

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Lead-Lag Relationship using a Stop-and-Reverse-MinMax Process

The intermarket analysis, in particular the lead-lag relationship, plays an important role within financial markets. Therefore a mathematical approach to be able to find interrelations between the price development of two different financial underlyings is developed in this paper. Computing the differences of the relative positions of relevant local extrema of two charts, i.e., the local phase shifts of these underlyings, gives us an empirical distribution on the unit circle. With the aid of directional statistics such angular distributions are studied for many pairs of markets. It is shown that there are several very strongly correlated underlyings in the field of foreign exchange, commodities and indexes. In some cases one of the two underlyings is significantly ahead with respect to the relevant local extrema, i.e., there is a phase shift unequal to zero between these two underlyings.

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Backtest of Trading Systems on Candle Charts

In this paper we try to design the necessary calculation needed for backtesting trading systems when only candle chart data are available. We lay particular emphasis on situations which are not or not uniquely decidable and give possible strategies to handle such situations.

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Empirical Study of the 1-2-3 Trend Indicator

In this paper we study automatically recognized trends and investigate their statistics. To do that we introduce the notion of a wavelength for time series via cross correlation and use this wavelength to calibrate the 1-2-3 trend indicator of Maier-Paape [Automatic One Two Three, Quantitative Finance, 2013] to automatically find trends. Extensive statistics are reported for EUR-USD, DAX-Future, Gold and Crude Oil regarding e.g. the dynamic, duration and extension of trends on different time scales.

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