arXiv subjects

Stanislav Anatolyev

Publications and source records attributed to Stanislav Anatolyev.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Testing Many Restrictions Under Heteroskedasticity

We propose a hypothesis test that allows for many tested restrictions in a heteroskedastic linear regression model. The test compares the conventional F statistic to a critical value that corrects for many restrictions and conditional heteroskedasticity. This correction uses leave-one-out estimation to correctly center the critical value and leave-three-out estimation to appropriately scale it. The large sample properties of the test are established in an asymptotic framework where the number of tested restrictions may be fixed or may grow with the sample size, and can even be proportional to the number of observations. We show that the test is asymptotically valid and has non-trivial asymptotic power against the same local alternatives as the exact F test when the latter is valid. Simulations corroborate these theoretical findings and suggest excellent size control in moderately small samples, even under strong heteroskedasticity.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2019

Factor models with many assets: strong factors, weak factors, and the two-pass procedure

This paper re-examines the problem of estimating risk premia in linear factor pricing models. Typically, the data used in the empirical literature are characterized by weakness of some pricing factors, strong cross-sectional dependence in the errors, and (moderately) high cross-sectional dimensionality. Using an asymptotic framework where the number of assets/portfolios grows with the time span of the data while the risk exposures of weak factors are local-to-zero, we show that the conventional two-pass estimation procedure delivers inconsistent estimates of the risk premia. We propose a new estimation procedure based on sample-splitting instrumental variables regression. The proposed estimator of risk premia is robust to weak included factors and to the presence of strong unaccounted cross-sectional error dependence. We derive the many-asset weak factor asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator, show how to construct its standard errors, verify its performance in simulations, and revisit some empirical studies.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2019

Forecasting dynamic return distributions based on ordered binary choice

We present a simple approach to forecasting conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regression that imposes a connection on sign predictability across different quantiles. The model forecasts the future conditional probability distributions of returns quite precisely when using a past indicator and past volatility proxy as predictors. Direct benefits of the model are revealed in an empirical application to the 29 most liquid U.S. stocks. The forecast probability distribution is translated to significant economic gains in a simple trading strategy. Our approach can also be useful in many other applications where conditional distribution forecasts are desired.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2018

Limit Theorems for Factor Models

The paper establishes the central limit theorems and proposes how to perform valid inference in factor models. We consider a setting where many counties/regions/assets are observed for many time periods, and when estimation of a global parameter includes aggregation of a cross-section of heterogeneous micro-parameters estimated separately for each entity. The central limit theorem applies for quantities involving both cross-sectional and time series aggregation, as well as for quadratic forms in time-aggregated errors. The paper studies the conditions when one can consistently estimate the asymptotic variance, and proposes a bootstrap scheme for cases when one cannot. A small simulation study illustrates performance of the asymptotic and bootstrap procedures. The results are useful for making inferences in two-step estimation procedures related to factor models, as well as in other related contexts. Our treatment avoids structural modeling of cross-sectional dependence but imposes time-series independence.

econ.EM↗