arXiv subjects

Stefan Bauer

Publications and source records attributed to Stefan Bauer.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Decoding complexity: how machine learning is redefining scientific discovery

As modern scientific instruments generate vast amounts of data and the volume of information in the scientific literature continues to grow, machine learning (ML) has become an essential tool for organising, analysing, and interpreting these complex datasets. This paper explores the transformative role of ML in accelerating breakthroughs across a range of scientific disciplines. By presenting key examples -- such as brain mapping and exoplanet detection -- we demonstrate how ML is reshaping scientific research. We also explore different scenarios where different levels of knowledge of the underlying phenomenon are available, identifying strategies to overcome limitations and unlock the full potential of ML. Despite its advances, the growing reliance on ML poses challenges for research applications and rigorous validation of discoveries. We argue that even with these challenges, ML is poised to disrupt traditional methodologies and advance the boundaries of knowledge by enabling researchers to tackle increasingly complex problems. Thus, the scientific community can move beyond the necessary traditional oversimplifications to embrace the full complexity of natural systems, ultimately paving the way for interdisciplinary breakthroughs and innovative solutions to humanity's most pressing challenges.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Measuring temporal effects of agent knowledge by date-controlled tool use

Temporal progression is an integral part of knowledge accumulation and update. Web search is frequently adopted as grounding for agent knowledge, yet an improper configuration affects the quality of the agent's responses. Here, we assess the agent behavior using distinct date-controlled tools (DCTs) as stress test to measure the knowledge variability of large language model (LLM) agents. We demonstrate the temporal effects of an LLM agent as a writing assistant, which uses web search to complete scientific publication abstracts. We show that the temporality of search engine translates into tool-dependent agent performance but can be alleviated with base model choice and explicit reasoning instructions such as chain-of-thought prompting. Our results indicate that agent design and evaluations should take a dynamical view and implement measures to account for the temporal influence of external resources to ensure reliability.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Causal Bayesian Optimization with Unknown Graphs

Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) is a methodology designed to optimize an outcome variable by leveraging known causal relationships through targeted interventions. Traditional CBO methods require a fully and accurately specified causal graph, which is a limitation in many real-world scenarios where such graphs are unknown. To address this, we propose a new method for the CBO framework that operates without prior knowledge of the causal graph. Consistent with causal bandit theory, we demonstrate through theoretical analysis and that focusing on the direct causal parents of the target variable is sufficient for optimization, and provide empirical validation in the context of CBO. Furthermore we introduce a new method that learns a Bayesian posterior over the direct parents of the target variable. This allows us to optimize the outcome variable while simultaneously learning the causal structure. Our contributions include a derivation of the closed-form posterior distribution for the linear case. In the nonlinear case where the posterior is not tractable, we present a Gaussian Process (GP) approximation that still enables CBO by inferring the parents of the outcome variable. The proposed method performs competitively with existing benchmarks and scales well to larger graphs, making it a practical tool for real-world applications where causal information is incomplete.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

A scalable gene network model of regulatory dynamics in single cells

Single-cell data provide high-dimensional measurements of the transcriptional states of cells, but extracting insights into the regulatory functions of genes, particularly identifying transcriptional mechanisms affected by biological perturbations, remains a challenge. Many perturbations induce compensatory cellular responses, making it difficult to distinguish direct from indirect effects on gene regulation. Modeling how gene regulatory functions shape the temporal dynamics of these responses is key to improving our understanding of biological perturbations. Dynamical models based on differential equations offer a principled way to capture transcriptional dynamics, but their application to single-cell data has been hindered by computational constraints, stochasticity, sparsity, and noise. Existing methods either rely on low-dimensional representations or make strong simplifying assumptions, limiting their ability to model transcriptional dynamics at scale. We introduce a Functional and Learnable model of Cell dynamicS, FLeCS, that incorporates gene network structure into coupled differential equations to model gene regulatory functions. Given (pseudo)time-series single-cell data, FLeCS accurately infers cell dynamics at scale, provides improved functional insights into transcriptional mechanisms perturbed by gene knockouts, both in myeloid differentiation and K562 Perturb-seq experiments, and simulates single-cell trajectories of A549 cells following small-molecule perturbations.

q-bio.MN↗

arXiv2025

Learning Decision Trees as Amortized Structure Inference

Building predictive models for tabular data presents fundamental challenges, notably in scaling consistently, i.e., more resources translating to better performance, and generalizing systematically beyond the training data distribution. Designing decision tree models remains especially challenging given the intractably large search space, and most existing methods rely on greedy heuristics, while deep learning inductive biases expect a temporal or spatial structure not naturally present in tabular data. We propose a hybrid amortized structure inference approach to learn predictive decision tree ensembles given data, formulating decision tree construction as a sequential planning problem. We train a deep reinforcement learning (GFlowNet) policy to solve this problem, yielding a generative model that samples decision trees from the Bayesian posterior. We show that our approach, DT-GFN, outperforms state-of-the-art decision tree and deep learning methods on standard classification benchmarks derived from real-world data, robustness to distribution shifts, and anomaly detection, all while yielding interpretable models with shorter description lengths. Samples from the trained DT-GFN model can be ensembled to construct a random forest, and we further show that the performance of scales consistently in ensemble size, yielding ensembles of predictors that continue to generalize systematically.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Exploring the Effectiveness of Object-Centric Representations in Visual Question Answering: Comparative Insights with Foundation Models

Object-centric (OC) representations, which model visual scenes as compositions of discrete objects, have the potential to be used in various downstream tasks to achieve systematic compositional generalization and facilitate reasoning. However, these claims have yet to be thoroughly validated empirically. Recently, foundation models have demonstrated unparalleled capabilities across diverse domains, from language to computer vision, positioning them as a potential cornerstone of future research for a wide range of computational tasks. In this paper, we conduct an extensive empirical study on representation learning for downstream Visual Question Answering (VQA), which requires an accurate compositional understanding of the scene. We thoroughly investigate the benefits and trade-offs of OC models and alternative approaches including large pre-trained foundation models on both synthetic and real-world data, ultimately identifying a promising path to leverage the strengths of both paradigms. The extensiveness of our study, encompassing over 600 downstream VQA models and 15 different types of upstream representations, also provides several additional insights that we believe will be of interest to the community at large.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Diffusion-Based Representation Learning

Diffusion-based methods represented as stochastic differential equations on a continuous-time domain have recently proven successful as a non-adversarial generative model. Training such models relies on denoising score matching, which can be seen as multi-scale denoising autoencoders. Here, we augment the denoising score matching framework to enable representation learning without any supervised signal. GANs and VAEs learn representations by directly transforming latent codes to data samples. In contrast, the introduced diffusion-based representation learning relies on a new formulation of the denoising score matching objective and thus encodes the information needed for denoising. We illustrate how this difference allows for manual control of the level of details encoded in the representation. Using the same approach, we propose to learn an infinite-dimensional latent code that achieves improvements of state-of-the-art models on semi-supervised image classification. We also compare the quality of learned representations of diffusion score matching with other methods like autoencoder and contrastively trained systems through their performances on downstream tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomes

Causal machine learning (ML) offers flexible, data-driven methods for predicting treatment outcomes including efficacy and toxicity, thereby supporting the assessment and safety of drugs. A key benefit of causal ML is that it allows for estimating individualized treatment effects, so that clinical decision-making can be personalized to individual patient profiles. Causal ML can be used in combination with both clinical trial data and real-world data, such as clinical registries and electronic health records, but caution is needed to avoid biased or incorrect predictions. In this Perspective, we discuss the benefits of causal ML (relative to traditional statistical or ML approaches) and outline the key components and steps. Finally, we provide recommendations for the reliable use of causal ML and effective translation into the clinic.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

From Static to Dynamic Structures: Improving Binding Affinity Prediction with Graph-Based Deep Learning

Accurate prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities is an essential challenge in structure-based drug design. Despite recent advances in data-driven methods for affinity prediction, their accuracy is still limited, partially because they only take advantage of static crystal structures while the actual binding affinities are generally determined by the thermodynamic ensembles between proteins and ligands. One effective way to approximate such a thermodynamic ensemble is to use molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Here, an MD dataset containing 3,218 different protein-ligand complexes is curated, and Dynaformer, a graph-based deep learning model is further developed to predict the binding affinities by learning the geometric characteristics of the protein-ligand interactions from the MD trajectories. In silico experiments demonstrated that the model exhibits state-of-the-art scoring and ranking power on the CASF-2016 benchmark dataset, outperforming the methods hitherto reported. Moreover, in a virtual screening on heat shock protein 90 (HSP90) using Dynaformer, 20 candidates are identified and their binding affinities are further experimentally validated. Dynaformer displayed promising results in virtual drug screening, revealing 12 hit compounds (two are in the submicromolar range), including several novel scaffolds. Overall, these results demonstrated that the approach offer a promising avenue for accelerating the early drug discovery process.

q-bio.BM↗

arXiv2024

Challenges and Considerations in the Evaluation of Bayesian Causal Discovery

Representing uncertainty in causal discovery is a crucial component for experimental design, and more broadly, for safe and reliable causal decision making. Bayesian Causal Discovery (BCD) offers a principled approach to encapsulating this uncertainty. Unlike non-Bayesian causal discovery, which relies on a single estimated causal graph and model parameters for assessment, evaluating BCD presents challenges due to the nature of its inferred quantity - the posterior distribution. As a result, the research community has proposed various metrics to assess the quality of the approximate posterior. However, there is, to date, no consensus on the most suitable metric(s) for evaluation. In this work, we reexamine this question by dissecting various metrics and understanding their limitations. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we find that many existing metrics fail to exhibit a strong correlation with the quality of approximation to the true posterior, especially in scenarios with low sample sizes where BCD is most desirable. We highlight the suitability (or lack thereof) of these metrics under two distinct factors: the identifiability of the underlying causal model and the quantity of available data. Both factors affect the entropy of the true posterior, indicating that the current metrics are less fitting in settings of higher entropy. Our findings underline the importance of a more nuanced evaluation of new methods by taking into account the nature of the true posterior, as well as guide and motivate the development of new evaluation procedures for this challenge.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Amortized Active Causal Induction with Deep Reinforcement Learning

We present Causal Amortized Active Structure Learning (CAASL), an active intervention design policy that can select interventions that are adaptive, real-time and that does not require access to the likelihood. This policy, an amortized network based on the transformer, is trained with reinforcement learning on a simulator of the design environment, and a reward function that measures how close the true causal graph is to a causal graph posterior inferred from the gathered data. On synthetic data and a single-cell gene expression simulator, we demonstrate empirically that the data acquired through our policy results in a better estimate of the underlying causal graph than alternative strategies. Our design policy successfully achieves amortized intervention design on the distribution of the training environment while also generalizing well to distribution shifts in test-time design environments. Further, our policy also demonstrates excellent zero-shot generalization to design environments with dimensionality higher than that during training, and to intervention types that it has not been trained on.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Roadmap on Data-Centric Materials Science

Science is and always has been based on data, but the terms "data-centric" and the "4th paradigm of" materials research indicate a radical change in how information is retrieved, handled and research is performed. It signifies a transformative shift towards managing vast data collections, digital repositories, and innovative data analytics methods. The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its subset Machine Learning (ML), has become pivotal in addressing all these challenges. This Roadmap on Data-Centric Materials Science explores fundamental concepts and methodologies, illustrating diverse applications in electronic-structure theory, soft matter theory, microstructure research, and experimental techniques like photoemission, atom probe tomography, and electron microscopy. While the roadmap delves into specific areas within the broad interdisciplinary field of materials science, the provided examples elucidate key concepts applicable to a wider range of topics. The discussed instances offer insights into addressing the multifaceted challenges encountered in contemporary materials research.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2024

The Essential Role of Causality in Foundation World Models for Embodied AI

Recent advances in foundation models, especially in large multi-modal models and conversational agents, have ignited interest in the potential of generally capable embodied agents. Such agents will require the ability to perform new tasks in many different real-world environments. However, current foundation models fail to accurately model physical interactions and are therefore insufficient for Embodied AI. The study of causality lends itself to the construction of veridical world models, which are crucial for accurately predicting the outcomes of possible interactions. This paper focuses on the prospects of building foundation world models for the upcoming generation of embodied agents and presents a novel viewpoint on the significance of causality within these. We posit that integrating causal considerations is vital to facilitating meaningful physical interactions with the world. Finally, we demystify misconceptions about causality in this context and present our outlook for future research.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Derivative-free tree optimization for complex systems

A tremendous range of design tasks in materials, physics, and biology can be formulated as finding the optimum of an objective function depending on many parameters without knowing its closed-form expression or the derivative. Traditional derivative-free optimization techniques often rely on strong assumptions about objective functions, thereby failing at optimizing non-convex systems beyond 100 dimensions. Here, we present a tree search method for derivative-free optimization that enables accelerated optimal design of high-dimensional complex systems. Specifically, we introduce stochastic tree expansion, dynamic upper confidence bound, and short-range backpropagation mechanism to evade local optimum, iteratively approximating the global optimum using machine learning models. This development effectively confronts the dimensionally challenging problems, achieving convergence to global optima across various benchmark functions up to 2,000 dimensions, surpassing the existing methods by 10- to 20-fold. Our method demonstrates wide applicability to a wide range of real-world complex systems spanning materials, physics, and biology, considerably outperforming state-of-the-art algorithms. This enables efficient autonomous knowledge discovery and facilitates self-driving virtual laboratories. Although we focus on problems within the realm of natural science, the advancements in optimization techniques achieved herein are applicable to a broader spectrum of challenges across all quantitative disciplines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Trust Your $\nabla$: Gradient-based Intervention Targeting for Causal Discovery

Inferring causal structure from data is a challenging task of fundamental importance in science. Observational data are often insufficient to identify a system's causal structure uniquely. While conducting interventions (i.e., experiments) can improve the identifiability, such samples are usually challenging and expensive to obtain. Hence, experimental design approaches for causal discovery aim to minimize the number of interventions by estimating the most informative intervention target. In this work, we propose a novel Gradient-based Intervention Targeting method, abbreviated GIT, that 'trusts' the gradient estimator of a gradient-based causal discovery framework to provide signals for the intervention acquisition function. We provide extensive experiments in simulated and real-world datasets and demonstrate that GIT performs on par with competitive baselines, surpassing them in the low-data regime.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Structure by Architecture: Structured Representations without Regularization

We study the problem of self-supervised structured representation learning using autoencoders for downstream tasks such as generative modeling. Unlike most methods which rely on matching an arbitrary, relatively unstructured, prior distribution for sampling, we propose a sampling technique that relies solely on the independence of latent variables, thereby avoiding the trade-off between reconstruction quality and generative performance typically observed in VAEs. We design a novel autoencoder architecture capable of learning a structured representation without the need for aggressive regularization. Our structural decoders learn a hierarchy of latent variables, thereby ordering the information without any additional regularization or supervision. We demonstrate how these models learn a representation that improves results in a variety of downstream tasks including generation, disentanglement, and extrapolation using several challenging and natural image datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Federated Causal Discovery From Interventions

Causal discovery serves a pivotal role in mitigating model uncertainty through recovering the underlying causal mechanisms among variables. In many practical domains, such as healthcare, access to the data gathered by individual entities is limited, primarily for privacy and regulatory constraints. However, the majority of existing causal discovery methods require the data to be available in a centralized location. In response, researchers have introduced federated causal discovery. While previous federated methods consider distributed observational data, the integration of interventional data remains largely unexplored. We propose FedCDI, a federated framework for inferring causal structures from distributed data containing interventional samples. In line with the federated learning framework, FedCDI improves privacy by exchanging belief updates rather than raw samples. Additionally, it introduces a novel intervention-aware method for aggregating individual updates. We analyze scenarios with shared or disjoint intervened covariates, and mitigate the adverse effects of interventional data heterogeneity. The performance and scalability of FedCDI is rigorously tested across a variety of synthetic and real-world graphs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Molecular causality in the advent of foundation models

Correlation is not causation. As simple as this widely agreed-upon statement may seem, scientifically defining causality and using it to drive our modern biomedical research is immensely challenging. In this perspective, we attempt to synergise the partly disparate fields of systems biology, causal reasoning, and machine learning, to inform future approaches in the field of systems biology and molecular networks.

q-bio.MN↗