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Stefan Feuerriegel

Publications and source records attributed to Stefan Feuerriegel.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

OncoSynth: Synthetic data generation for treatment effect estimation in oncology

In oncology, access to patient-level data is often restricted. Synthetic data provides an alternative for analyzing treatment effectiveness, but existing methods for synthetic data generation fail to preserve the causal relationships between covariates, treatments, and outcomes, thereby leading to biased estimates of treatment effects. Here, we introduce OncoSynth, a generative, causally-aware machine learning framework designed to produce synthetic cohorts that enable accurate estimation of population- and patient-level treatment effects. OncoSynth uses a diffusion-based sequential approach to model how covariates influence treatment assignment and how treatment affects survival. We evaluate OncoSynth using large lung (N = 37,128) and breast cancer (N = 17,046) cohorts. Our results show that OncoSynth generates high-fidelity synthetic patient cohorts that preserve real-world patient, treatment, and outcome distributions. Notably, OncoSynth improves treatment effect estimation over existing approaches, by reducing population-level treatment effect error by up to 66%, and patient-level treatment effect error by up to 58%. Thereby, OncoSynth supports reliable evidence generation for precision oncology in settings where data sharing is restricted.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ProbeLLM: Automating Principled Diagnosis of LLM Failures

Understanding how and why large language models (LLMs) fail is becoming a central challenge as models rapidly evolve and static evaluations fall behind. While automated probing has been enabled by dynamic test generation, existing approaches often discover isolated failure cases, lack principled control over exploration, and provide limited insight into the underlying structure of model weaknesses. We propose ProbeLLM, a benchmark-agnostic automated probing framework that elevates weakness discovery from individual failures to structured failure modes. ProbeLLM formulates probing as a hierarchical Monte Carlo Tree Search, explicitly allocating limited probing budgets between global exploration of new failure regions and local refinement of recurring error patterns. By restricting probing to verifiable test cases and leveraging tool-augmented generation and verification, ProbeLLM grounds failure discovery in reliable evidence. Discovered failures are further consolidated into interpretable failure modes via failure-aware embeddings and boundary-aware induction. Across diverse benchmarks and LLMs, ProbeLLM reveals substantially broader, cleaner, and more fine-grained failure landscapes than static benchmarks and prior automated methods, supporting a shift from case-centric evaluation toward principled weakness discovery.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Gender-based discrepancies in the algorithmic delivery of political ads on social media

Social media has become a key channel for political advertising during election campaigns. However, algorithmic biases in the delivery of these ads may distort the public's exposure to political messaging. This can hinder citizens' ability to make informed choices and undermine equal access to political discourse, raising concerns about the integrity of electoral processes. In this study, we examine gender-based discrimination in the delivery of political ads during the 2024 European Parliament elections. Using a large-scale dataset of over 110000 ads from 453 political parties and 968 candidates that generated over 7 billion impressions across 25 EU countries, we find that men were significantly more likely to be shown ads from populist and far-right parties than women -- even after accounting for ad content, platform-level competition, and targeting strategies. All else equal, ads by populist parties reach, on average, a 6 percentage point higher male share. Such imbalances restrict the ability of parties to reach diverse audiences and prevent voters from engaging equally with the full range of political viewpoints. This pattern is particularly concerning given that far-right and populist ads may reinforce political polarization and widen existing gender gaps in political engagement. Our findings underscore the need for platforms and policymakers to audit algorithmic ad delivery in political campaigns on social media and to implement safeguards that ensure fairness and protect democratic processes.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2026

Nonparametric LLM Evaluation from Preference Data

Evaluating the performance of large language models (LLMs) from human preference data is crucial for obtaining LLM leaderboards. However, many existing approaches either rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or lack valid uncertainty quantification when flexible machine learning methods are used. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric statistical framework, called DMLRank, for comparing and ranking LLMs from preference data using debiased machine learning (DML). For this, we introduce generalized average ranking scores (GARS), which generalize commonly used ranking models, including the Bradley-Terry model or PageRank/ Rank centrality, with complex human responses such as ties. DMLRank comes with the following advantages: (i)~It produces statistically efficient estimates of GARS ranking scores. (ii) It naturally allows the incorporation of black-box machine learning methods for estimation. (iii) It can be combined with pre-trained LLM evaluators (e.g., using LLM-as-a-judge). (iv) It suggests optimal policies for collecting preference data under budget constraints. We demonstrate these advantages both theoretically and empirically using both synthetic and real-world preference datasets. In summary, our framework provides practitioners with powerful, state-of-the-art methods for comparing or ranking LLMs for leaderboards.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Orthogonal Learner for Estimating Heterogeneous Long-Term Treatment Effects

Estimation of heterogeneous long-term treatment effects (HLTEs) is relevant for personalized decision-making in marketing, economics, and medicine, where short-term observational datasets are often combined with long-term observational datasets. However, HLTE estimation is challenging due to limited overlap in treatment assignments or in long-term outcomes for certain subpopulations, which can lead to unstable HLTE estimates with large finite-sample variance. To address this challenge, we introduce the LT-O-learners (Long-Term Orthogonal Learners), a set of novel orthogonal learners for HLTE estimation in the canonical HLTE setting with surrogacy. The key idea of our LT-O-learners is to retarget the loss via custom overlap weights that downweight low-overlap samples. We show that the retargeted loss recovers the true HLTE pointwise and satisfies Neyman-orthogonality. We further prove two key theoretical results: (i) The nuisance error enters the error bound only through higher-order terms, which means our learners are robust to nuisance estimation error. (ii) Under a linear function class, the retargeting effectively controls the asymptotic variance of the HLTE estimator via the overlap weights in low-overlap regimes. We conduct experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets to confirm the theoretical properties of our LT-O-learners, particularly robustness in low-overlap regimes. To our knowledge, ours are the first orthogonal learners for HLTE estimation robust to low overlap in long-term settings.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Rank-Learner: Orthogonal Ranking of Treatment Effects

Many decision-making problems require ranking individuals by their treatment effects rather than estimating the exact effect magnitudes. Examples include prioritizing patients for preventive care interventions, or ranking customers by the expected incremental impact of an advertisement. Surprisingly, while causal effect estimation has received substantial attention in the literature, the problem of directly learning rankings of treatment effects has largely remained unexplored. In this paper, we introduce Rank-Learner, a novel two-stage learner that directly learns the ranking of treatment effects from observational data. We first show that naive approaches based on precise treatment effect estimation solve a harder problem than necessary for ranking, while our Rank-Learner optimizes a pairwise learning objective that recovers the true treatment effect ordering, without explicit CATE estimation. We further show that our Rank-Learner is Neyman-orthogonal and thus comes with strong theoretical guarantees, including robustness to estimation errors in the nuisance functions. In addition, our Rank-Learner is model-agnostic, and can be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models (e.g., neural networks). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through extensive experiments where Rank-Learner consistently outperforms standard CATE estimators and non-orthogonal ranking methods. Overall, we provide practitioners with a new, orthogonal two-stage learner for ranking individuals by their treatment effects.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation

Large language model (LLM) development is currently driven by large-scale empirical iteration over data mixtures, reward models, routing strategies, and evaluation pipelines. Here, we argue that many central questions in LLM development and evaluation are inherently causal: What is the effect of adding a data domain during pretraining? How do annotator preferences change when LLMs generate text in a different style? Should a prompt be routed to a larger or smaller model given inference cost constraints? In general, causal methods are well-suited to such settings where interventions change outcomes but, surprisingly, are underrepresented in LLM development. Our contribution is threefold: (1) We explain how causal methods can help develop modern LLM development and evaluation: LLM development relies heavily on logged data, which are often subject to confounding and distribution shifts; evaluation uses learned but potentially biased judges; and deployment environments are non-stationary. These conditions make purely predictive approaches fragile and create opportunities for principled identification and estimation methods from causal inference. (2) We further map opportunities for causal methods in the entire LLM development pipeline, including pretraining, alignment, routing, agentic workflows, and evaluation. (3) We discuss new research opportunities around leveraging causal methods for LLM development and evaluation. Overall, we argue that causal methods are potentially underutilized for the LLM development and evaluation pipeline, despite the fact that such methods can ensure a reliable and scientifically grounded design.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Adaptive Experimentation for Censored Survival Outcomes

Adaptive experimentation enables efficient estimation of causal effects, but existing methods are not designed for survival data with censoring, where event times are only partially observed (e.g., overall survival in cancer trials but with dropout). In this paper, we develop a novel framework for adaptive experimentation to estimate causal effects under right censoring. For this, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for the average survival effect curve as a function of the treatment allocation policy and thereby obtain a closed-form efficiency-optimal allocation policy. The policy generalizes classical Neyman allocation to survival settings by prioritizing patient strata where both event and censoring dynamics induce high uncertainty. Building on this, we propose the Adaptive Survival Estimator (ASE), an adaptive framework that learns the allocation policy and estimates the average survival effect curve sequentially. Our framework has three main benefits: (i) it accommodates arbitrary machine learning models for nuisance estimation; (ii) it is guided by a closed-form efficiency-optimal allocation policy; and (iii) it admits strong theoretical guarantees, including asymptotic normality via a martingale central limit theorem. We demonstrate our framework across various numerical experiments to show consistent efficiency gains over uniform randomization and censoring-agnostic baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Continual Learning of Domain-Invariant Representations

Continual learning (CL) aims to train models sequentially over multiple domains without forgetting previously learned knowledge. However, existing CL methods optimize for in-domain performance and are therefore prone to learning spurious, domain-specific cues (``shortcut learning''), which limits generalization to unseen domains after deployment. In this paper, we address this limitation through continual learning of domain-invariant representation. We introduce a broad class of CL methods that sequentially learn representations capturing invariant structures across domains. Our methods are motivated by the observation that such invariant structures often preserve the underlying causal mechanisms, which can reduce the risk of overfitting to domain-specific cues and thus offer better out-of-domain generalization. Our proposed CL methods combine replay-based training with a tailored sequential invariance alignment to learn -- and preserve -- invariant structures over time. We evaluate our methods under a deployment-oriented protocol that measures performance on unseen target domains. Across six benchmark and real-world datasets spanning vision, medicine, manufacturing, and ecology, our methods consistently outperform existing CL baselines in terms of generalization to unseen target domains. As an ablation, we further show that naïve extensions of sequential training with existing domain-invariant representation learning (DIRL) methods provide only limited benefits. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to develop domain-invariant representation methods for CL.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Targeted Synthetic Control Method

The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated control units that matches the pre-treatment trajectory. In this paper, we introduce the targeted synthetic control (TSC) method, a new two-stage estimator that directly estimates the counterfactual outcome. Specifically, our TSC method (1) yields a targeted debiasing estimator, in the sense that the targeted updating refines the initial weights to produce more stable weights; and (2) ensures that the final counterfactual estimation is a convex combination of observed control outcomes to enable direct interpretation of the synthetic control weights. TSC is flexible and can be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models. Methodologically, TSC starts from an initial set of synthetic-control weights via a one-dimensional targeted update through the weight-tilting submodel, which calibrates the weights to reduce bias of weights estimation arising from pre-treatment fit. Furthermore, TSC avoids key shortcomings of existing methods (e.g., the augmented SCM), which can produce unbounded counterfactual estimates. Across extensive synthetic and real-world experiments, TSC consistently improves estimation accuracy over state-of-the-art SCM baselines.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Assessing the robustness of heterogeneous treatment effects in survival analysis under informative censoring

Dropout is common in clinical studies, with up to half of patients leaving early due to side effects or other reasons. When dropout is informative (i.e., dependent on survival time), it introduces censoring bias, because of which treatment effect estimates are also biased. In this paper, we propose an assumption-lean framework to assess the robustness of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimates in survival analysis when facing censoring bias. Unlike existing works that rely on strong assumptions, such as non-informative censoring, to obtain point estimation, we use partial identification to derive informative bounds on the CATE. Thereby, our framework helps to identify patient subgroups where treatment is effective despite informative censoring. We further propose a novel model-agnostic meta-learner, called SurvB-learner, to estimate the bounds that can be used in combination with arbitrary machine-learning models, and that has favorable theoretical properties such as double-robustness and quasi-oracle efficiency. We finally demonstrate the effectiveness of our meta-learner across various experiments using both simulated and real-world data.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ConfoundingSHAP: Quantifying confounding strength in causal inference

In causal inference, confounders are variables that influence both treatment decisions and outcomes. However, unlike as in randomized clinical trials, the treatment assignment mechanism in observational studies is not known, and it is thus unclear which covariates act as confounders. Here, we aim to generate insight for causal inference and answer: which of the observed covariates act as confounders? We introduce ConfoundingSHAP, a Shapley-based method for attributing confounding strength to individual covariates. Our contributions are twofold. First, we propose a Shapley game targeted to infer the confounding strength of the covariates. Our resulting Shapley values differ from the standard applications of SHAP explanations on causal targets, such as understanding treatment effect heterogeneity, which are ill-suited for our task. Second, as our task requires evaluating the value function over many adjustment sets, we provide a scalable TabPFN-based estimation that avoids exhaustive refitting. We demonstrate the practical value across various datasets, where ConfoundingSHAP provides informative explanations of which observed covariates drive confounding and thereby helps to provide more insight for causal inference in practice.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Amortizing Causal Sensitivity Analysis via Prior Data-Fitted Networks

Causal sensitivity analysis aims to provide bounds for causal effect estimates in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, existing methods for causal sensitivity analysis are per-instance procedures, meaning that changes to the dataset, causal query, sensitivity level, or treatment require new computation. Here, we instead present an in-context learning approach. Specifically, we propose an amortized approach to causal sensitivity analysis based on prior-data fitted networks. A key challenge is that the sensitivity bounds are not directly available when sampling training data. To address this, we develop a general prior-data construction that is applicable across the class of generalized treatment sensitivity models. Our construction involves a Lagrangian scalarization of the objective to generate training labels for the bounds through a tradeoff between causal effect min/max-imization and sensitivity model violation, which avoids model-specific analytical derivations. We further show that, under standard convexity and linearity conditions, our objective recovers the full Pareto frontier of solutions. Empirically, we demonstrate our amortized approach across various datasets, causal queries, and sensitivity levels, where our approach achieves a test-time computation that is orders of magnitude faster than per-instance methods. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first foundation model for in-context learning for causal sensitivity analysis.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

SkillGen: Verified Inference-Time Agent Skill Synthesis

Skills are a promising way to improve LLM agent capabilities without retraining, while keeping the added procedure reusable and controllable. However, high-quality skills are still largely written by hand. We introduce SkillGen, a multi-agent framework that synthesizes a single auditable skill from trajectories generated by a base agent. The output is a human-readable artifact that can be inspected before use. Rather than merely summarizing trajectories, SkillGen leverages contrastive induction over both successful and failed trajectories to identify reusable success patterns, recurring failure modes, and behaviors that appear in nearby successes but are missing from failures. SkillGen then generates candidate skills and iteratively refines the skill. A key novelty in SkillGen is that we model agent skills as interventions to empirically verify the net effect of skills on the overall performance. Specifically, we compare outcomes on the same instances with and without the skill, so that we account for both repairs (cases where the skill fixes a baseline failure) and regressions (cases where the skill breaks a baseline success). Across a broad range of agents and datasets, SkillGen consistently improves held-out performance, outperforms existing skill-generation baselines, and produces skills that transfer across models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

NARRA-Gym for Evaluating Interactive Narrative Agents

Interactive narrative tasks require LLMs to sustain a coherent, evolving story while adapting to a user over multiple turns. However, suitable benchmarks for this setting are limited: existing evaluations often focus on static prompts, isolated story generations, or post-hoc ratings, and therefore miss whether models can jointly manage story generation, long-context state and pacing, character simulation, empathic personalization, and story-grounded artifacts. We introduce NARRA-Gym, an executable evaluation environment that turns a sparse emotional seed into a complete interactive story episode and logs the full model-in-the-loop trajectory, including story construction, memory updates, planning, pacing interventions, and optional artifact synthesis. We evaluate nine frontier LLMs using a controlled LLM-as-judge sweep over eight benchmark personas and a human evaluation in which participants rate customized model outputs. Our results show substantial variation across models, personas, and evaluation dimensions: models that produce fluent stories can still fail on robustness, user experience, or resistance-sensitive personalization. These findings suggest that interactive narrative offers a useful benchmark for evaluating long-horizon, user-adaptive LLM behavior beyond isolated story quality.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

ORTHOBO: Orthogonal Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization

Bayesian optimization is widely used for hyperparameter optimization when model evaluations are expensive; however, noisy acquisition estimates can lead to unstable decisions. We identify acquisition estimation noise as a failure mode that was previously overlooked: even when the surrogate model and acquisition target are correctly specified, finite-sample Monte Carlo error can perturb acquisition values. This can, in turn, flip candidate rankings and lead to suboptimal BO decisions. As a remedy, we aim at variance reduction and propose an orthogonal acquisition estimator that subtracts an optimally weighted score-function control variate, which yields an acquisition residual orthogonal to posterior score directions and which thus reduces Monte Carlo variance. We further introduce OrthoBO: a Bayesian optimization framework that combines our orthogonal acquisition estimator with ensemble surrogates and an outer log transformation. We show theoretically that our estimator preserves the target, leads to variance reduction, and improves pairwise ranking stability. We further verify the theoretical properties of OrthoBO through numerical experiments where our framework reduces acquisition estimation variance, stabilizes candidate rankings, and achieves strong performance. We also demonstrate the downstream utility of OrthoBO in hyperparameter optimization for neural network training and fine-tuning.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

A meta-analysis of the effect of generative AI on productivity and learning in programming

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is increasingly used for programming, yet it remains unclear when and where GenAI tools lead to productivity gains. Evidence on the effects of GenAI on the long-term development of programming skills is similarly mixed. Here, we present a meta-analysis of $n = 23$ studies reporting $k = 27$ effect sizes to quantify the effect of GenAI-powered coding assistants on productivity and learning. We systematically searched (i) ACM, (ii) arXiv, (iii) Scopus, and (iv) Web of Science for studies published between 2019 and 2025. Studies were required to compare GenAI-assisted with unassisted programming using quantitative measures of (1) productivity (i.e., task completion time, commits, and lines of code) and (2) learning (i.e., exam performance). We assessed the risk of bias using RoB2 and ROBINS-I and compared standardized effect sizes using Hedges' $g$. We find a statistically significant, but moderate positive effect of GenAI assistance on developer productivity ($g = 0.33$, $95\%$ CI: $[0.09, 0.58]$), yet with substantial heterogeneity across settings. Notably, productivity gains tend to be larger in controlled experimental settings, while effects are smaller in open-source and enterprise contexts. In contrast, we find no statistically significant effect of GenAI assistance on learning outcomes ($g = 0.14$, $95\%$ CI: $[-0.18, 0.47]$). Overall, these results highlight that GenAI coding assistants can increase developer productivity, although these gains depend strongly on context. In educational settings, however, the use of GenAI does not consistently translate into improved learning or skill development, which highlights the need for careful integration of GenAI into computer science education.

cs.SE↗
arXiv2026

Orthogonal Representation Learning for Estimating Causal Quantities

End-to-end representation learning has become a powerful tool for estimating causal quantities from high-dimensional observational data, but its efficiency remained unclear. Here, we face a central tension: End-to-end representation learning methods often work well in practice but lack asymptotic optimality in the form of the quasi-oracle efficiency. In contrast, two-stage Neyman-orthogonal learners provide such a theoretical optimality property but do not explicitly benefit from the strengths of representation learning. In this work, we step back and ask two research questions: (1) When do representations strengthen existing Neyman-orthogonal learners? and (2) Can a balancing constraint - a commonly proposed technique in the representation learning literature - provide improvements to Neyman-orthogonality? We address these two questions through our theoretical and empirical analysis, where we introduce a unifying framework that connects representation learning with Neyman-orthogonal learners (namely, OR-learners). In particular, we show that, under the low-dimensional manifold hypothesis, the OR-learners can strictly improve the estimation error of the standard Neyman-orthogonal learners. At the same time, we find that the balancing constraint requires an additional inductive bias and cannot generally compensate for the lack of Neyman-orthogonality of the end-to-end approaches. Building on these insights, we offer guidelines for how users can effectively combine representation learning with the classical Neyman-orthogonal learners to achieve both practical performance and theoretical guarantees.

cs.LG↗