arXiv subjects

Stefan Feuerriegel

Publications and source records attributed to Stefan Feuerriegel.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Designing Effective Digital Literacy Interventions for Boosting Deepfake Discernment

Deepfakes images can erode trust in institutions and compromise election outcomes, as people often struggle to discern real images from deepfake images. Improving digital literacy can help address these challenges. Here, we compare the efficacy of five digital literacy interventions to boost people's ability to discern deepfakes: (1) textual guidance on common indicators of deepfakes; (2) visual demonstrations of these indicators; (3) a gamified exercise for identifying deepfakes; (4) implicit learning through repeated exposure and feedback; and (5) explanations of how deepfakes are generated with the help of AI. We conducted an experiment with N=1,200 participants from the United States to test the immediate and long-term effectiveness of our interventions. Our results show that our lightweight, easy-to-understand interventions can boost deepfake image discernment by up to 13 percentage points while maintaining trust in real images.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Analyzing Social Media Claims regarding Youth Online Safety Features to Identify Problem Areas and Communication Gaps

Social media platforms have faced increasing scrutiny over whether and how they protect youth online. While online risks to children have been well-documented by prior research, how social media platforms communicate about these risks and their efforts to improve youth safety have not been holistically examined. To fill this gap, we analyzed N=352 press releases and safety-related blogs published between 2019 and 2024 by four platforms popular among youth: YouTube, TikTok, Meta (Facebook and Instagram), and Snapchat. Leveraging both inductive and deductive qualitative approaches, we developed a comprehensive framework of seven problem areas where risks arise, and a taxonomy of safety features that social media platforms claim address these risks. Our analysis revealed uneven emphasis across problem areas, with most communications focused on Content Exposure and Interpersonal Communication, whereas less emphasis was placed on Content Creation, Data Access, and Platform Access. Additionally, we identified three problematic communication practices related to their described safety features, including discrepancies between feature implementation and availability, unclear or inconsistent explanations of safety feature operation, and a lack of evidence regarding the effectiveness of safety features in mitigating risks once implemented. Based on these findings, we discuss the communication gaps between risks and the described safety features, as well as the tensions in achieving transparency in platform communication. Our analysis of platform communication informs guidelines for responsibly communicating about youth safety features.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Designing LLMs for cultural sensitivity: Evidence from English-Japanese translation

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in everyday communication, including multilingual interactions across different cultural contexts. While LLMs can now generate near-perfect literal translations, it remains unclear whether LLMs support culturally appropriate communication. In this paper, we analyze the cultural sensitivity of different LLM designs when applied to English-Japanese translations of workplace e-mails. Here, we vary the prompting strategies: (1) naive "just translate" prompts, (2) audience-targeted prompts specifying the recipient's cultural background, and (3) instructional prompts with explicit guidance on Japanese communication norms. Using a mixed-methods study, we then analyze culture-specific language patterns to evaluate how well translations adapt to cultural norms. Further, we examine the appropriateness of the tone of the translations as perceived by native speakers. We find that culturally-tailored prompting can improve cultural fit, based on which we offer recommendations for designing culturally inclusive LLMs in multilingual settings.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

A Meta-Analysis of the Persuasive Power of Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for persuasion, such as in political communication and marketing, where they affect how people think, choose, and act. Yet, empirical findings on the effectiveness of LLMs in persuasion compared to humans remain inconsistent. The aim of this study was to systematically review and meta-analytically assess whether LLMs differ from humans in persuasive effectiveness. We identified $7$ studies with 17,422 participants primarily recruited from English-speaking countries and $12$ effect size estimates. Egger's test indicated potential small-study effects ($p = .018$), but the trim-and-fill analysis did not impute any missing studies, suggesting a low risk of publication bias. We then compute the standardized effect sizes based on Hedges' $g$. The results show no significant overall difference in persuasive performance between LLMs and humans ($g = 0.02$, $p = .530$). However, we observe substantial heterogeneity across studies ($I^2 = 75.97\%$), suggesting that persuasiveness strongly depends on contextual factors. In separate exploratory moderator analyses, no individual factor (e.g., LLM model, conversation design, or domain) reached statistical significance, which may be due to the limited number of studies. When considered jointly in a combined model, these factors explained a large proportion of the between-study variance ($R^2 = 81.93\%$), and residual heterogeneity is low ($I^2 = 35.51\%$). Although based on a small number of studies, this suggests that differences in LLM model, conversation design, and domain are important contextual factors in shaping persuasive performance, and that single-factor tests may understate their influence. Our results highlight that LLMs can match human performance in persuasion, but their success depends strongly on how they are implemented and embedded in communication contexts.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

DeepBlip: Estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects Over Time

Structural nested mean models (SNMMs) are a principled approach to estimate the treatment effects over time. A particular strength of SNMMs is to break the joint effect of treatment sequences over time into localized, time-specific ``blip effects''. This decomposition promotes interpretability through the incremental effects and enables the efficient offline evaluation of optimal treatment policies without re-computation. However, neural frameworks for SNMMs are lacking, as their inherently sequential g-estimation scheme prevents end-to-end, gradient-based training. Here, we propose DeepBlip, the first neural framework for SNMMs, which overcomes this limitation with a novel double optimization trick to enable simultaneous learning of all blip functions. Our DeepBlip seamlessly integrates sequential neural networks like LSTMs or transformers to capture complex temporal dependencies. By design, our method correctly adjusts for time-varying confounding to produce unbiased estimates, and its Neyman-orthogonal loss function ensures robustness to nuisance model misspecification. Finally, we evaluate our DeepBlip across various clinical datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Beyond Means: A Dynamic Framework for Predicting Customer Satisfaction

Online ratings influence customer decision-making, yet standard aggregation methods, such as the sample mean, fail to adapt to quality changes over time and ignore review heterogeneity (e.g., review sentiment, a review's helpfulness). To address these challenges, we demonstrate the value of using the Gaussian process (GP) framework for rating aggregation. Specifically, we present a tailored GP model that captures the dynamics of ratings over time while additionally accounting for review heterogeneity. Based on 121,123 ratings from Yelp, we compare the predictive power of different rating aggregation methods in predicting future ratings, thereby finding that the GP model is considerably more accurate and reduces the mean absolute error by 10.2% compared to the sample mean. Our findings have important implications for marketing practitioners and customers. By moving beyond means, designers of online reputation systems can display more informative and adaptive aggregated rating scores that are accurate signals of expected customer satisfaction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

LLM-Driven Treatment Effect Estimation Under Inference Time Text Confounding

Estimating treatment effects is crucial for personalized decision-making in medicine, but this task faces unique challenges in clinical practice. At training time, models for estimating treatment effects are typically trained on well-structured medical datasets that contain detailed patient information. However, at inference time, predictions are often made using textual descriptions (e.g., descriptions with self-reported symptoms), which are incomplete representations of the original patient information. In this work, we make three contributions. (1) We show that the discrepancy between the data available during training time and inference time can lead to biased estimates of treatment effects. We formalize this issue as an inference time text confounding problem, where confounders are fully observed during training time but only partially available through text at inference time. (2) To address this problem, we propose a novel framework for estimating treatment effects that explicitly accounts for inference time text confounding. Our framework leverages large language models together with a custom doubly robust learner to mitigate biases caused by the inference time text confounding. (3) Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in real-world applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Improving the Generation and Evaluation of Synthetic Data for Downstream Medical Causal Inference

Causal inference is essential for developing and evaluating medical interventions, yet real-world medical datasets are often difficult to access due to regulatory barriers. This makes synthetic data a potentially valuable asset that enables these medical analyses, along with the development of new inference methods themselves. Generative models can produce synthetic data that closely approximate real data distributions, yet existing methods do not consider the unique challenges that downstream causal inference tasks, and specifically those focused on treatments, pose. We establish a set of desiderata that synthetic data containing treatments should satisfy to maximise downstream utility: preservation of (i) the covariate distribution, (ii) the treatment assignment mechanism, and (iii) the outcome generation mechanism. Based on these desiderata, we propose a set of evaluation metrics to assess such synthetic data. Finally, we present STEAM: a novel method for generating Synthetic data for Treatment Effect Analysis in Medicine that mimics the data-generating process of data containing treatments and optimises for our desiderata. We empirically demonstrate that STEAM achieves state-of-the-art performance across our metrics as compared to existing generative models, particularly as the complexity of the true data-generating process increases.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Average Treatment Effects from Multiple Datasets

Constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the average treatment effect (ATE) from patient records is crucial to assess the effectiveness and safety of drugs. However, patient records typically come from different hospitals, thus raising the question of how multiple observational datasets can be effectively combined for this purpose. In our paper, we propose a new method that estimates the ATE from multiple observational datasets and provides valid CIs. Our method makes little assumptions about the observational datasets and is thus widely applicable in medical practice. The key idea of our method is that we leverage prediction-powered inferences and thereby essentially `shrink' the CIs so that we offer more precise uncertainty quantification as compared to naïve approaches. We further prove the unbiasedness of our method and the validity of our CIs. We confirm our theoretical results through various numerical experiments. Finally, we provide an extension of our method for constructing CIs from combinations of experimental and observational datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

PrivATE: Differentially Private Confidence Intervals for Average Treatment Effects

The average treatment effect (ATE) is widely used to evaluate the effectiveness of drugs and other medical interventions. In safety-critical applications like medicine, reliable inferences about the ATE typically require valid uncertainty quantification, such as through confidence intervals (CIs). However, estimating treatment effects in these settings often involves sensitive data that must be kept private. In this work, we present PrivATE, a novel machine learning framework for computing CIs for the ATE under differential privacy. Specifically, we focus on deriving valid privacy-preserving CIs for the ATE from observational data. Our PrivATE framework consists of three steps: (i) estimating the differentially private ATE through output perturbation; (ii) estimating the differentially private variance in a doubly robust manner; and (iii) constructing the CIs while accounting for the uncertainty from both the estimation and privatization steps. Our PrivATE framework is model agnostic, doubly robust, and ensures valid CIs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework using synthetic and real-world medical datasets. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to derive a general, doubly robust framework for valid CIs of the ATE under ($\varepsilon,δ$)-differential privacy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Consistent End-to-End Estimation for Counterfactual Fairness

Fairness in predictions is of direct importance in practice due to legal, ethical, and societal reasons. This is often accomplished through counterfactual fairness, which ensures that the prediction for an individual is the same as that in a counterfactual world under a different sensitive attribute. However, achieving counterfactual fairness is challenging as counterfactuals are unobservable, and, because of that, existing baselines for counterfactual fairness do not have theoretical guarantees. In this paper, we propose a novel counterfactual fairness predictor for making predictions under counterfactual fairness. Here, we follow the standard counterfactual fairness setting and directly learn the counterfactual distribution of the descendants of the sensitive attribute via tailored neural networks, which we then use to enforce fair predictions through a novel counterfactual mediator regularization. Unique to our work is that we provide theoretical guarantees that our method is effective in ensuring the notion of counterfactual fairness. We further compare the performance across various datasets, where our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Contextualizing Recommendation Explanations with LLMs: A User Study

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly prevalent in recommender systems, where LLMs can be used to generate personalized recommendations. Here, we examine how different LLM-generated explanations for movie recommendations affect users' perceptions of cognitive, affective, and utilitarian needs and consumption intentions. In a pre-registered, between-subject online experiment (N=759) and follow-up interviews (N=30), we compare (a) LLM-generated generic explanations, and (b) LLM-generated contextualized explanations. Our findings show that contextualized explanations (i.e., explanations that incorporate users' past behaviors) effectively meet users' cognitive needs while increasing users' intentions to watch recommended movies. However, adding explanations offers limited benefits in meeting users' utilitarian and affective needs, raising concerns about the proper design and implications of LLM-generated explanations. Qualitative insights from interviews reveal that referencing users' past preferences enhances trust and understanding but can feel excessive if overused. Furthermore, users with more active and positive engagement with the recommender system and movie-watching get substantial gains from contextualized explanations. Overall, our research clarifies how LLM-generated recommendations influence users' motivations and behaviors, providing valuable insights for the future development of user-centric recommender systems, a key element in social media platforms and online ecosystems.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Personalized Exercise Recommendation with Semantically-Grounded Knowledge Tracing

We introduce ExRec, a general framework for personalized exercise recommendation with semantically-grounded knowledge tracing. Our method builds on the observation that existing exercise recommendation approaches simulate student performance via knowledge tracing (KT) but they often overlook two key aspects: (a) the semantic content of questions and (b) the sequential, structured progression of student learning. To address this, our ExRec presents an end-to-end pipeline, from annotating the KCs of questions and learning their semantic representations to training KT models and optimizing several reinforcement learning (RL) methods. Moreover, we improve standard Q-learning-based continuous RL methods via a tailored model-based value estimation (MVE) approach that directly leverages the components of KT model in estimating cumulative knowledge improvement. We validate the effectiveness of our ExRec using various RL methods across four real-world tasks with different educational goals in online math learning. We further show that ExRec generalizes robustly to new, unseen questions and that it produces interpretable student learning trajectories. Together, our findings highlight the promise of KT-guided RL for effective personalization in education.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

A Diffusion-Based Method for Learning the Multi-Outcome Distribution of Medical Treatments

In medicine, treatments often influence multiple, interdependent outcomes, such as primary endpoints, complications, adverse events, or other secondary endpoints. Hence, to make optimal treatment decisions, clinicians are interested in learning the distribution of multi-dimensional treatment outcomes. However, the vast majority of machine learning methods for predicting treatment effects focus on single-outcome settings, despite the fact that medical data often include multiple, interdependent outcomes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel diffusion-based method called DIME to learn the joint distribution of multiple outcomes of medical treatments. We addresses three challenges relevant in medical practice: (i)it is tailored to learn the joint interventional distribution of multiple medical outcomes, which enables reliable decision-making with uncertainty quantification rather than relying solely on point estimates; (ii)it explicitly captures the dependence structure between outcomes; (iii)it can handle outcomes of mixed type, including binary, categorical, and continuous variables. In DIME, we take into account the fundamental problem of causal inference through causal masking. For training, our method decomposes the joint distribution into a series of conditional distributions with a customized conditional masking to account for the dependence structure across outcomes. For inference, our method auto-regressively generates predictions. This allows our method to move beyond point estimates of causal quantities and thus learn the joint interventional distribution. To the best of our knowledge, DIME is the first neural method tailored to learn the joint, multi-outcome distribution of medical treatments. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our method effectively learns the joint distribution and captures shared information among multiple outcomes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Treatment Effect Estimation for Optimal Decision-Making

Decision-making across various fields, such as medicine, heavily relies on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Practitioners commonly make decisions by checking whether the estimated CATE is positive, even though the decision-making performance of modern CATE estimators is poorly understood from a theoretical perspective. In this paper, we study optimal decision-making based on two-stage CATE estimators (e.g., DR-learner), which are considered state-of-the-art and widely used in practice. We prove that, while such estimators may be optimal for estimating CATE, they can be suboptimal when used for decision-making. Intuitively, this occurs because such estimators prioritize CATE accuracy in regions far away from the decision boundary, which is ultimately irrelevant to decision-making. As a remedy, we propose a novel two-stage learning objective that retargets the CATE to balance CATE estimation error and decision performance. We then propose a neural method that optimizes an adaptively-smoothed approximation of our learning objective. Finally, we confirm the effectiveness of our method both empirically and theoretically. In sum, our work is the first to show how two-stage CATE estimators can be adapted for optimal decision-making.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Generative AI and Creativity: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is increasingly used to support a wide range of human tasks, yet empirical evidence on its effect on creativity remains scattered. Can GenAI generate ideas that are creative? To what extent can it support humans in generating ideas that are both creative and diverse? In this study, we conduct a meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of GenAI on the performance in creative tasks. For this, we first perform a systematic literature search, based on which we identify n = 28 relevant studies (m = 8214 participants) for inclusion in our meta-analysis. We then compute standardized effect sizes based on Hedges' g. We compare different outcomes: (i) how creative GenAI is; (ii) how creative humans augmented by GenAI are; and (iii) the diversity of ideas by humans augmented by GenAI. Our results show no significant difference in creative performance between GenAI and humans (g = -0.05), while humans collaborating with GenAI significantly outperform those working without assistance (g = 0.27). However, GenAI has a significant negative effect on the diversity of ideas for such collaborations between humans and GenAI (g = -0.86). We further analyze heterogeneity across different GenAI models (e.g., GPT-3.5, GPT-4), different tasks (e.g., creative writing, ideation, divergent thinking), and different participant populations (e.g., laypeople, business, academia). Overall, our results position GenAI as an augmentative tool that can support, rather than replace, human creativity-particularly in tasks benefiting from ideation support.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Orthogonal Survival Learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects from Time-to-Event Data

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is crucial for personalized decision-making. However, this task is challenging in survival analysis, which includes time-to-event data with censored outcomes (e.g., due to study dropout). In this paper, we propose a toolbox of novel orthogonal survival learners to estimate HTEs from time-to-event data under censoring. Our learners have three main advantages: (i) we show that learners from our toolbox are guaranteed to be orthogonal and thus come with favorable theoretical properties; (ii) our toolbox allows for incorporating a custom weighting function, which can lead to robustness against different types of low overlap, and (iii) our learners are model-agnostic (i.e., they can be combined with arbitrary machine learning models). We instantiate the learners from our toolbox using several weighting functions and, as a result, propose various neural orthogonal survival learners. Some of these coincide with existing survival learners (including survival versions of the DR- and R-learner), while others are novel and further robust w.r.t. low overlap regimes specific to the survival setting (i.e., survival overlap and censoring overlap). We then empirically verify the effectiveness of our learners for HTE estimation in different low-overlap regimes through numerical experiments. In sum, we provide practitioners with a large toolbox of learners that can be used for randomized and observational studies with censored time-to-event data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Beware of "Explanations" of AI

Understanding the decisions made and actions taken by increasingly complex AI system remains a key challenge. This has led to an expanding field of research in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), highlighting the potential of explanations to enhance trust, support adoption, and meet regulatory standards. However, the question of what constitutes a "good" explanation is dependent on the goals, stakeholders, and context. At a high level, psychological insights such as the concept of mental model alignment can offer guidance, but success in practice is challenging due to social and technical factors. As a result of this ill-defined nature of the problem, explanations can be of poor quality (e.g. unfaithful, irrelevant, or incoherent), potentially leading to substantial risks. Instead of fostering trust and safety, poorly designed explanations can actually cause harm, including wrong decisions, privacy violations, manipulation, and even reduced AI adoption. Therefore, we caution stakeholders to beware of explanations of AI: while they can be vital, they are not automatically a remedy for transparency or responsible AI adoption, and their misuse or limitations can exacerbate harm. Attention to these caveats can help guide future research to improve the quality and impact of AI explanations.

cs.LG↗