arXiv subjects

Stefan Pfenninger-Lee

Publications and source records attributed to Stefan Pfenninger-Lee.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Assessing Power System Vulnerability to Climate-Related Stressors and Shocks: The Case of Indonesia

Climate change and extreme weather are increasing the vulnerability of power systems globally, particularly in emerging economies such as Indonesia. Yet, existing studies often assess these impacts in isolation, focusing on individual components or specific hazards, leaving system-level implications under-examined. To address this gap, we develop an integrated, spatially explicit approach to assess an energy system's climate-related vulnerabilities and their impacts, and apply the approach to Indonesia. We quantify climate-based vulnerabilities in generation and transmission infrastructure as well as in demand by distinguishing stressors (temperature rise) and shocks (disruptive hazards due to sea-level rise, flooding, and landslides). Through geospatial data analysis, derating models, and regression analysis, we examine existing and planned assets and demand under historical and future climate conditions. Results indicate that both existing and planned generation are likely to experience stress, which implies a reduction in usable capacity, even as electricity demand increases due to temperature rise, and transmission assets face potential disruption from climate change-induced shocks. Together, these effects erode reserve margins by up to 36 percentage points under the 10-year plan, indicating a substantial reduction in system resilience. The largest system, Jawa-Madura-Bali, experiences a 20.8 percentage point decline, leaving a remaining margin of 26.5%, below the 10-year planning threshold. Importantly, the findings suggest that a growing share of future capacity expansion may be absorbed by climate-induced losses, implying that adaptation-related investments may increasingly be required simply to maintain existing supply levels rather than meet future requirements. We conclude that there is an urgent need to embed climate considerations more explicitly into power sector planning.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Coordinated planning of European charging infrastructure and energy system for optimal V1G and V2G deployment

Vehicle charging infrastructure targets in Europe currently rely on uniform benchmarks and overlook the flexibility that could be provided by future smart charging (V1G) and vehicle to grid operation (V2G). To address this gap, we explicitly represent charging infrastructure and its costs in a cost minimizing European energy system model, allowing uncontrolled charging, V1G, and V2G to compete. We find that V1G captures the majority of system cost savings, amounting to 19 to 42 billion euros per year, or 2.2 to 4.5 percent, and substantially reduces infrastructure requirements. V2G provides more limited system cost savings of up to 2.5 billion euros per year, but generates substantial balancing market revenues of around 6.4 billion euros per year. V2G deployment is most cost effective in photovoltaic dominated systems and in scenarios with limited grid expansion, where combined solar and wind generation is relatively scarce. Charging infrastructure requirements vary across countries, reflecting either utilization maximization or flexibility maximization. This indicates that uniform EU targets risk overestimating infrastructure needs in some regions while constraining the benefits of smart charging in others.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Optimising for the long game: methodological challenges in energy system optimisation pathways

Pathways that describe the optimal evolution of energy systems across multiple decades are important in energy system research and policy literature, with net-zero and similar climate policies being common drivers behind them. While there are many studies on aspects such as spatial and operational resolution, model features, and model transparency, there has been little attention on the methodological considerations of formulating pathway studies in mathematical optimisation terms, and how these methods have evolved over time. To address this, we conduct a systematic review of optimal pathway literature at or above national level focusing on the following: i) the implications of model foresight choices, ii) end effects and related issues that may bias model outcomes, iii) trade-offs in model resolution, and iv) investment dynamics. We showcase how modellers have dealt with these aspects in a large sample of studies spanning multiple decades, and provide recommendations to both modellers and model users on identifying issues that can bias model results and how to improve upon them. In particular, we identify opportunities to better balance long-term anticipatory planning with high operational and spatial detail in models, and to improve the communication and systematic treatment of those mathematical design choices that potentially distort model decisions across time.

physics.soc-ph↗