arXiv subjects

Stefan Tanevski

Publications and source records attributed to Stefan Tanevski.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Wage Rigidity, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Inflation Persistence in Transition Economies: A Cohort-Based Institutional Approach

This paper investigates how institutional rigidities shape inflation persistence in transition economies, focusing on labor market institutions and exchange rate regimes. Using a large panel of transition countries over the period 2013-2024, the analysis combines newly constructed indices of wage rigidity and labor protection, derived from AI-assisted coding of legal texts, with de facto measures of exchange rate regime rigidity and standard macroeconomic controls. The empirical strategy adopts a dynamic panel framework in which inflation persistence is conditioned on institutional characteristics through interaction terms, estimated using GMM techniques. Identification follows a cohort-based approach, comparing inflation dynamics across countries with different institutional configurations. To address potential measurement and classification uncertainty in institutional variables, the analysis incorporates a simulation-based sensitivity framework. The results show that inflation persistence varies systematically across institutional settings. Both wage rigidity and exchange rate regime rigidity tend to dampen inflation persistence, indicating that institutional constraints can weaken the transmission of past inflation into current price dynamics. This effect is particularly strong and robust for exchange rate regimes, while the effect of wage rigidity is more sensitive to measurement assumptions. Findings highlight the importance of institutional structures in shaping inflation processes and suggest that nominal rigidities may play a stabilizing role in certain macroeconomic environments.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

The Asset Price Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Regional Stock-Market Developments in the Successor States of Former Yugoslavia

The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the existence of a sectoral asset price channel of monetary policy in the region of the six republics of former Yugoslavia. The study constructs sectoral indices for the entire region, building on the idea that one regional stock exchange may provide more efficiency for the listed companies in the region, while monetary policy relevance for it may be sector-specific. We employ panel vector autoregressive model to observe impulse responses of sectoral indices to innovations in monetary policy, while then disentangle the long- from the short-run relationships per index through a Pooled Mean Group estimation. Overall, we document presence of the asset price channel in the finance and telecom sectors, likely driven by the established multinational corporate networks fostering sub-market regionalization. Yet, this is not the case for the manufacturing and electricity sectors, which may imply that local stock markets are yet too fragmented and space for a more efficient regional stock market, either in the true sense of the word or, more realistically, though enhanced regional cooperation of the stock exchanges certainly exists.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Can Institutional Integration of Western Balkans Stock Exchanges Strengthen Monetary Transmission?

This paper asks how institutional stock-market integration reshapes the transmission of monetary policy through asset prices in small open economies. Motivated by the persistent segmentation of Western Balkan capital markets, we develop a two-stage counterfactual transmission framework to identify how stock-exchange consolidation would alter the elasticity of market valuations to monetary shocks. First, a synthetic-control simulation constructs a counterfactual integrated Western Balkan stock exchange comprising Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Serbia, benchmarked to the Baltic OMX merger, thereby quantifying the structural valuation gains of institutional integration. Second, we identify exogenous monetary-policy innovations using a Taylor-rule framework augmented with inflation and output forecasts and reserve adjustments. These shocks are then embedded within a Local-Projections estimator à la Jordà (2005) to trace the dynamic responses of market capitalisation under fragmented and integrated market regimes. The results point to a systematic amplification of monetary-policy transmission through the asset-price channel once markets are unified. Following a policy tightening of about 100 basis points, equity valuations fall roughly twice as strongly under integration than under fragmented markets. Additionally, we find that integration alters the sensitivity of monetary transmission itself: the initial pass-through intensifies, but its marginal responsiveness to further integration declines over time, signalling the consolidation of a new steady-state regime.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Monetary Policy and the Gendered Labor Market Dynamics: Evidence from Developing Economies

Using a Taylor rule amended with official reserves movements, we derive country-specific monetary shocks and employ a local projections-estimator for tracking gender-disaggregated labor-market responses in 99 developing economies from 2009 to 2021. Results show that women experience more negative post-shock employment responses than men, contributing to a deepening of the gender gaps on the labor market. After the shock, women leave the labor market more so than men, which results in an apparently intact or even improved unemployment outcome for women. We find limited evidence of sector-specific reaction to interest rates. Additionally, we identify an intense worsening of women-s position on the labor market in high-growth environments as well under monetary policy tightening. Developing Asia and Latin America experience the most significant detrimental effects on women's employment, Africa exhibits a slower manifestation of the monetary shocks-impact and developing Europe shows the mildest effects.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Employment, labor productivity and environmental sustainability: Firm-level evidence from transition

This paper examines how investment in environmentally sustainable practices impacts employment and labor productivity growth of firms in transition economies. The study considers labor skill composition and geographical differences, shedding light on sustainability dynamics. The empirical analysis relies on the World Bank-s Enterprise Survey 2019 for 24 transition economies, constructing an environmental sustainability index from various indicators through a Principal Components Analysis. To address endogeneity, a battery of fixed effects and instrumental variables are employed. Results reveal the relevance of environmental sustainability for both employment and labor productivity growth. However, the significance diminishes when addressing endogeneity comprehensively, alluding that any relation between environmentally sustainable practices and jobs growth is more complex and needs time to work. The decelerating job-creation effect of sustainability investments is however confirmed for the high-skill firms, while low-skill firms benefit from labor productivity gains spurred by such investment. Geographically, Central Europe sees more pronounced labor productivity impacts, possibly due to its higher development and sustainability-awareness levels as compared to Southeast Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Bargain your share: The role of workers bargaining power for labor share, with reference to transition economies

The objective of the paper is to understand the role of workers bargaining for the labor share in transition economies. We rely on a share-capital schedule, whereby workers bargaining power is represented as a move off the schedule. Quantitative indicators of bargaining power are amended with own-constructed qualitative indices from textual information describing the legal enabling environment for bargaining in each country. Multiple data constraints impose reliance on a cross-sectional empirical model estimated with IV methods, whereby former unionization rates and the time since the adoption of the ILO Collective Bargaining Convention are used as exogenous instruments. The sample is composed of 23 industrial branches in 69 countries, of which 28 transition ones. In general, we find the stronger bargaining power to influence higher labor share, when the former is measured either quantitatively or qualitatively. On the contrary, higher bargaining power results in lower labor share in transition economies. This is likely a matter of delayed response to wage pushes, reconciled with the increasing role of MNCs which did not confront the workers power rise per se, but introduced automation and changed market structure amid labor-market flexibilization, which eventually deferred bargaining power-s positive effect on labor share.

econ.GN↗