arXiv subjects

Stefano Ermon

Publications and source records attributed to Stefano Ermon.

At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

HiPPO: Recurrent Memory with Optimal Polynomial Projections

A central problem in learning from sequential data is representing cumulative history in an incremental fashion as more data is processed. We introduce a general framework (HiPPO) for the online compression of continuous signals and discrete time series by projection onto polynomial bases. Given a measure that specifies the importance of each time step in the past, HiPPO produces an optimal solution to a natural online function approximation problem. As special cases, our framework yields a short derivation of the recent Legendre Memory Unit (LMU) from first principles, and generalizes the ubiquitous gating mechanism of recurrent neural networks such as GRUs. This formal framework yields a new memory update mechanism (HiPPO-LegS) that scales through time to remember all history, avoiding priors on the timescale. HiPPO-LegS enjoys the theoretical benefits of timescale robustness, fast updates, and bounded gradients. By incorporating the memory dynamics into recurrent neural networks, HiPPO RNNs can empirically capture complex temporal dependencies. On the benchmark permuted MNIST dataset, HiPPO-LegS sets a new state-of-the-art accuracy of 98.3%. Finally, on a novel trajectory classification task testing robustness to out-of-distribution timescales and missing data, HiPPO-LegS outperforms RNN and neural ODE baselines by 25-40% accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Probabilistic Circuits for Variational Inference in Discrete Graphical Models

Inference in discrete graphical models with variational methods is difficult because of the inability to re-parameterize gradients of the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). Many sampling-based methods have been proposed for estimating these gradients, but they suffer from high bias or variance. In this paper, we propose a new approach that leverages the tractability of probabilistic circuit models, such as Sum Product Networks (SPN), to compute ELBO gradients exactly (without sampling) for a certain class of densities. In particular, we show that selective-SPNs are suitable as an expressive variational distribution, and prove that when the log-density of the target model is a polynomial the corresponding ELBO can be computed analytically. To scale to graphical models with thousands of variables, we develop an efficient and effective construction of selective-SPNs with size $O(kn)$, where $n$ is the number of variables and $k$ is an adjustable hyperparameter. We demonstrate our approach on three types of graphical models -- Ising models, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, and factor graphs from the UAI Inference Competition. Selective-SPNs give a better lower bound than mean-field and structured mean-field, and is competitive with approximations that do not provide a lower bound, such as Loopy Belief Propagation and Tree-Reweighted Belief Propagation. Our results show that probabilistic circuits are promising tools for variational inference in discrete graphical models as they combine tractability and expressivity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Imitation with Neural Density Models

We propose a new framework for Imitation Learning (IL) via density estimation of the expert's occupancy measure followed by Maximum Occupancy Entropy Reinforcement Learning (RL) using the density as a reward. Our approach maximizes a non-adversarial model-free RL objective that provably lower bounds reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence between occupancy measures of the expert and imitator. We present a practical IL algorithm, Neural Density Imitation (NDI), which obtains state-of-the-art demonstration efficiency on benchmark control tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution

We introduce a new generative model where samples are produced via Langevin dynamics using gradients of the data distribution estimated with score matching. Because gradients can be ill-defined and hard to estimate when the data resides on low-dimensional manifolds, we perturb the data with different levels of Gaussian noise, and jointly estimate the corresponding scores, i.e., the vector fields of gradients of the perturbed data distribution for all noise levels. For sampling, we propose an annealed Langevin dynamics where we use gradients corresponding to gradually decreasing noise levels as the sampling process gets closer to the data manifold. Our framework allows flexible model architectures, requires no sampling during training or the use of adversarial methods, and provides a learning objective that can be used for principled model comparisons. Our models produce samples comparable to GANs on MNIST, CelebA and CIFAR-10 datasets, achieving a new state-of-the-art inception score of 8.87 on CIFAR-10. Additionally, we demonstrate that our models learn effective representations via image inpainting experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Understanding Classifier Mistakes with Generative Models

Although deep neural networks are effective on supervised learning tasks, they have been shown to be brittle. They are prone to overfitting on their training distribution and are easily fooled by small adversarial perturbations. In this paper, we leverage generative models to identify and characterize instances where classifiers fail to generalize. We propose a generative model of the features extracted by a classifier, and show using rigorous hypothesis testing that errors tend to occur when features are assigned low-probability by our model. From this observation, we develop a detection criteria for samples on which a classifier is likely to fail at test time. In particular, we test against three different sources of classification failures: mistakes made on the test set due to poor model generalization, adversarial samples and out-of-distribution samples. Our approach is agnostic to class labels from the training set which makes it applicable to models trained in a semi-supervised way.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Using satellite imagery to understand and promote sustainable development

Accurate and comprehensive measurements of a range of sustainable development outcomes are fundamental inputs into both research and policy. We synthesize the growing literature that uses satellite imagery to understand these outcomes, with a focus on approaches that combine imagery with machine learning. We quantify the paucity of ground data on key human-related outcomes and the growing abundance and resolution (spatial, temporal, and spectral) of satellite imagery. We then review recent machine learning approaches to model-building in the context of scarce and noisy training data, highlighting how this noise often leads to incorrect assessment of models' predictive performance. We quantify recent model performance across multiple sustainable development domains, discuss research and policy applications, explore constraints to future progress, and highlight key research directions for the field.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Individual Calibration with Randomized Forecasting

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer no guarantees on predictions made on individual samples. Thus, predictions can be systematically over or under confident on certain subgroups, leading to issues of fairness and potential vulnerabilities. We show that calibration for individual samples is possible in the regression setup if the predictions are randomized, i.e. outputting randomized credible intervals. Randomization removes systematic bias by trading off bias with variance. We design a training objective to enforce individual calibration and use it to train randomized regression functions. The resulting models are more calibrated for arbitrarily chosen subgroups of the data, and can achieve higher utility in decision making against adversaries that exploit miscalibrated predictions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Privacy Preserving Recalibration under Domain Shift

Classifiers deployed in high-stakes real-world applications must output calibrated confidence scores, i.e. their predicted probabilities should reflect empirical frequencies. Recalibration algorithms can greatly improve a model's probability estimates; however, existing algorithms are not applicable in real-world situations where the test data follows a different distribution from the training data, and privacy preservation is paramount (e.g. protecting patient records). We introduce a framework that abstracts out the properties of recalibration problems under differential privacy constraints. This framework allows us to adapt existing recalibration algorithms to satisfy differential privacy while remaining effective for domain-shift situations. Guided by our framework, we also design a novel recalibration algorithm, accuracy temperature scaling, that outperforms prior work on private datasets. In an extensive empirical study, we find that our algorithm improves calibration on domain-shift benchmarks under the constraints of differential privacy. On the 15 highest severity perturbations of the ImageNet-C dataset, our method achieves a median ECE of 0.029, over 2x better than the next best recalibration method and almost 5x better than without recalibration.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Training Deep Energy-Based Models with f-Divergence Minimization

Deep energy-based models (EBMs) are very flexible in distribution parametrization but computationally challenging because of the intractable partition function. They are typically trained via maximum likelihood, using contrastive divergence to approximate the gradient of the KL divergence between data and model distribution. While KL divergence has many desirable properties, other f-divergences have shown advantages in training implicit density generative models such as generative adversarial networks. In this paper, we propose a general variational framework termed f-EBM to train EBMs using any desired f-divergence. We introduce a corresponding optimization algorithm and prove its local convergence property with non-linear dynamical systems theory. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of f-EBM over contrastive divergence, as well as the benefits of training EBMs using f-divergences other than KL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Domain Adaptive Imitation Learning

We study the question of how to imitate tasks across domains with discrepancies such as embodiment, viewpoint, and dynamics mismatch. Many prior works require paired, aligned demonstrations and an additional RL step that requires environment interactions. However, paired, aligned demonstrations are seldom obtainable and RL procedures are expensive. We formalize the Domain Adaptive Imitation Learning (DAIL) problem, which is a unified framework for imitation learning in the presence of viewpoint, embodiment, and dynamics mismatch. Informally, DAIL is the process of learning how to perform a task optimally, given demonstrations of the task in a distinct domain. We propose a two step approach to DAIL: alignment followed by adaptation. In the alignment step we execute a novel unsupervised MDP alignment algorithm, Generative Adversarial MDP Alignment (GAMA), to learn state and action correspondences from \emph{unpaired, unaligned} demonstrations. In the adaptation step we leverage the correspondences to zero-shot imitate tasks across domains. To describe when DAIL is feasible via alignment and adaptation, we introduce a theory of MDP alignability. We experimentally evaluate GAMA against baselines in embodiment, viewpoint, and dynamics mismatch scenarios where aligned demonstrations don't exist and show the effectiveness of our approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Belief Propagation Neural Networks

Learned neural solvers have successfully been used to solve combinatorial optimization and decision problems. More general counting variants of these problems, however, are still largely solved with hand-crafted solvers. To bridge this gap, we introduce belief propagation neural networks (BPNNs), a class of parameterized operators that operate on factor graphs and generalize Belief Propagation (BP). In its strictest form, a BPNN layer (BPNN-D) is a learned iterative operator that provably maintains many of the desirable properties of BP for any choice of the parameters. Empirically, we show that by training BPNN-D learns to perform the task better than the original BP: it converges 1.7x faster on Ising models while providing tighter bounds. On challenging model counting problems, BPNNs compute estimates 100's of times faster than state-of-the-art handcrafted methods, while returning an estimate of comparable quality.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Fair Generative Modeling via Weak Supervision

Real-world datasets are often biased with respect to key demographic factors such as race and gender. Due to the latent nature of the underlying factors, detecting and mitigating bias is especially challenging for unsupervised machine learning. We present a weakly supervised algorithm for overcoming dataset bias for deep generative models. Our approach requires access to an additional small, unlabeled reference dataset as the supervision signal, thus sidestepping the need for explicit labels on the underlying bias factors. Using this supplementary dataset, we detect the bias in existing datasets via a density ratio technique and learn generative models which efficiently achieve the twin goals of: 1) data efficiency by using training examples from both biased and reference datasets for learning; and 2) data generation close in distribution to the reference dataset at test time. Empirically, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach which reduces bias w.r.t. latent factors by an average of up to 34.6% over baselines for comparable image generation using generative adversarial networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Unsupervised Calibration under Covariate Shift

A probabilistic model is said to be calibrated if its predicted probabilities match the corresponding empirical frequencies. Calibration is important for uncertainty quantification and decision making in safety-critical applications. While calibration of classifiers has been widely studied, we find that calibration is brittle and can be easily lost under minimal covariate shifts. Existing techniques, including domain adaptation ones, primarily focus on prediction accuracy and do not guarantee calibration neither in theory nor in practice. In this work, we formally introduce the problem of calibration under domain shift, and propose an importance sampling based approach to address it. We evaluate and discuss the efficacy of our method on both real-world datasets and synthetic datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Experience Replay with Likelihood-free Importance Weights

The use of past experiences to accelerate temporal difference (TD) learning of value functions, or experience replay, is a key component in deep reinforcement learning. Prioritization or reweighting of important experiences has shown to improve performance of TD learning algorithms.In this work, we propose to reweight experiences based on their likelihood under the stationary distribution of the current policy. Using the corresponding reweighted TD objective, we implicitly encourage small approximation errors on the value function over frequently encountered states. We use a likelihood-free density ratio estimator over the replay buffer to assign the prioritization weights. We apply the proposed approach empirically on two competitive methods, Soft Actor Critic (SAC) and Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic policy gradient (TD3) -- over a suite of OpenAI gym tasks and achieve superior sample complexity compared to other baseline approaches.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

A Framework for Sample Efficient Interval Estimation with Control Variates

We consider the problem of estimating confidence intervals for the mean of a random variable, where the goal is to produce the smallest possible interval for a given number of samples. While minimax optimal algorithms are known for this problem in the general case, improved performance is possible under additional assumptions. In particular, we design an estimation algorithm to take advantage of side information in the form of a control variate, leveraging order statistics. Under certain conditions on the quality of the control variates, we show improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing estimation algorithms. Empirically, we demonstrate superior performance on several real world surveying and estimation tasks where we use the output of regression models as the control variates.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Bridging the Gap Between $f$-GANs and Wasserstein GANs

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have enjoyed much success in learning high-dimensional distributions. Learning objectives approximately minimize an $f$-divergence ($f$-GANs) or an integral probability metric (Wasserstein GANs) between the model and the data distribution using a discriminator. Wasserstein GANs enjoy superior empirical performance, but in $f$-GANs the discriminator can be interpreted as a density ratio estimator which is necessary in some GAN applications. In this paper, we bridge the gap between $f$-GANs and Wasserstein GANs (WGANs). First, we list two constraints over variational $f$-divergence estimation objectives that preserves the optimal solution. Next, we minimize over a Lagrangian relaxation of the constrained objective, and show that it generalizes critic objectives of both $f$-GAN and WGAN. Based on this generalization, we propose a novel practical objective, named KL-Wasserstein GAN (KL-WGAN). We demonstrate empirical success of KL-WGAN on synthetic datasets and real-world image generation benchmarks, and achieve state-of-the-art FID scores on CIFAR10 image generation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Learning When and Where to Zoom with Deep Reinforcement Learning

While high resolution images contain semantically more useful information than their lower resolution counterparts, processing them is computationally more expensive, and in some applications, e.g. remote sensing, they can be much more expensive to acquire. For these reasons, it is desirable to develop an automatic method to selectively use high resolution data when necessary while maintaining accuracy and reducing acquisition/run-time cost. In this direction, we propose PatchDrop a reinforcement learning approach to dynamically identify when and where to use/acquire high resolution data conditioned on the paired, cheap, low resolution images. We conduct experiments on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, ImageNet and fMoW datasets where we use significantly less high resolution data while maintaining similar accuracy to models which use full high resolution images.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Farmland Parcel Delineation Using Spatio-temporal Convolutional Networks

Farm parcel delineation provides cadastral data that is important in developing and managing climate change policies. Specifically, farm parcel delineation informs applications in downstream governmental policies of land allocation, irrigation, fertilization, green-house gases (GHG's), etc. This data can also be useful for the agricultural insurance sector for assessing compensations following damages associated with extreme weather events - a growing trend related to climate change. Using satellite imaging can be a scalable and cost effective manner to perform the task of farm parcel delineation to collect this valuable data. In this paper, we break down this task using satellite imaging into two approaches: 1) Segmentation of parcel boundaries, and 2) Segmentation of parcel areas. We implemented variations of UNets, one of which takes into account temporal information, which achieved the best results on our dataset on farmland parcels in France in 2017.

eess.IV↗