arXiv subjects

Stefano Ermon

Publications and source records attributed to Stefano Ermon.

321 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

General Bounds on Satisfiability Thresholds for Random CSPs via Fourier Analysis

Random constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs) have been widely studied both in AI and complexity theory. Empirically and theoretically, many random CSPs have been shown to exhibit a phase transition. As the ratio of constraints to variables passes certain thresholds, they transition from being almost certainly satisfiable to unsatisfiable. The exact location of this threshold has been thoroughly investigated, but only for certain common classes of constraints. In this paper, we present new bounds for the location of these thresholds in boolean CSPs. Our main contribution is that our bounds are fully general, and apply to any fixed constraint function that could be used to generate an ensemble of random CSPs. These bounds rely on a novel Fourier analysis and can be easily computed from the Fourier spectrum of a constraint function. Our bounds are within a constant factor of the exact threshold location for many well-studied random CSPs. We demonstrate that our bounds can be easily instantiated to obtain thresholds for many constraint functions that had not been previously studied, and evaluate them experimentally.

cs.DM↗

arXiv2017

Estimating Uncertainty Online Against an Adversary

Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data distribution differs from the one seen at training time. Here, we propose techniques that assess a classification algorithm's uncertainty via calibrated probabilities (i.e. probabilities that match empirical outcome frequencies in the long run) and which are guaranteed to be reliable (i.e. accurate and calibrated) on out-of-distribution input, including input generated by an adversary. This represents an extension of classical online learning that handles uncertainty in addition to guaranteeing accuracy under adversarial assumptions. We establish formal guarantees for our methods, and we validate them on two real-world problems: question answering and medical diagnosis from genomic data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Solving Marginal MAP Problems with NP Oracles and Parity Constraints

Arising from many applications at the intersection of decision making and machine learning, Marginal Maximum A Posteriori (Marginal MAP) Problems unify the two main classes of inference, namely maximization (optimization) and marginal inference (counting), and are believed to have higher complexity than both of them. We propose XOR_MMAP, a novel approach to solve the Marginal MAP Problem, which represents the intractable counting subproblem with queries to NP oracles, subject to additional parity constraints. XOR_MMAP provides a constant factor approximation to the Marginal MAP Problem, by encoding it as a single optimization in polynomial size of the original problem. We evaluate our approach in several machine learning and decision making applications, and show that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art Marginal MAP solvers.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

Label-Free Supervision of Neural Networks with Physics and Domain Knowledge

In many machine learning applications, labeled data is scarce and obtaining more labels is expensive. We introduce a new approach to supervising neural networks by specifying constraints that should hold over the output space, rather than direct examples of input-output pairs. These constraints are derived from prior domain knowledge, e.g., from known laws of physics. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on real world and simulated computer vision tasks. We are able to train a convolutional neural network to detect and track objects without any labeled examples. Our approach can significantly reduce the need for labeled training data, but introduces new challenges for encoding prior knowledge into appropriate loss functions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

Closing the Gap Between Short and Long XORs for Model Counting

Many recent algorithms for approximate model counting are based on a reduction to combinatorial searches over random subsets of the space defined by parity or XOR constraints. Long parity constraints (involving many variables) provide strong theoretical guarantees but are computationally difficult. Short parity constraints are easier to solve but have weaker statistical properties. It is currently not known how long these parity constraints need to be. We close the gap by providing matching necessary and sufficient conditions on the required asymptotic length of the parity constraints. Further, we provide a new family of lower bounds and the first non-trivial upper bounds on the model count that are valid for arbitrarily short XORs. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of these bounds on model counting benchmarks and in a Satisfiability Modulo Theory (SMT) application motivated by the analysis of contingency tables in statistics.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2016

Variable Elimination in the Fourier Domain

The ability to represent complex high dimensional probability distributions in a compact form is one of the key insights in the field of graphical models. Factored representations are ubiquitous in machine learning and lead to major computational advantages. We explore a different type of compact representation based on discrete Fourier representations, complementing the classical approach based on conditional independencies. We show that a large class of probabilistic graphical models have a compact Fourier representation. This theoretical result opens up an entirely new way of approximating a probability distribution. We demonstrate the significance of this approach by applying it to the variable elimination algorithm. Compared with the traditional bucket representation and other approximate inference algorithms, we obtain significant improvements.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2016

Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning

Consider learning a policy from example expert behavior, without interaction with the expert or access to reinforcement signal. One approach is to recover the expert's cost function with inverse reinforcement learning, then extract a policy from that cost function with reinforcement learning. This approach is indirect and can be slow. We propose a new general framework for directly extracting a policy from data, as if it were obtained by reinforcement learning following inverse reinforcement learning. We show that a certain instantiation of our framework draws an analogy between imitation learning and generative adversarial networks, from which we derive a model-free imitation learning algorithm that obtains significant performance gains over existing model-free methods in imitating complex behaviors in large, high-dimensional environments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Model-Free Imitation Learning with Policy Optimization

In imitation learning, an agent learns how to behave in an environment with an unknown cost function by mimicking expert demonstrations. Existing imitation learning algorithms typically involve solving a sequence of planning or reinforcement learning problems. Such algorithms are therefore not directly applicable to large, high-dimensional environments, and their performance can significantly degrade if the planning problems are not solved to optimality. Under the apprenticeship learning formalism, we develop alternative model-free algorithms for finding a parameterized stochastic policy that performs at least as well as an expert policy on an unknown cost function, based on sample trajectories from the expert. Our approach, based on policy gradients, scales to large continuous environments with guaranteed convergence to local minima.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Transfer Learning from Deep Features for Remote Sensing and Poverty Mapping

The lack of reliable data in developing countries is a major obstacle to sustainable development, food security, and disaster relief. Poverty data, for example, is typically scarce, sparse in coverage, and labor-intensive to obtain. Remote sensing data such as high-resolution satellite imagery, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly available and inexpensive. Unfortunately, such data is highly unstructured and currently no techniques exist to automatically extract useful insights to inform policy decisions and help direct humanitarian efforts. We propose a novel machine learning approach to extract large-scale socioeconomic indicators from high-resolution satellite imagery. The main challenge is that training data is very scarce, making it difficult to apply modern techniques such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). We therefore propose a transfer learning approach where nighttime light intensities are used as a data-rich proxy. We train a fully convolutional CNN model to predict nighttime lights from daytime imagery, simultaneously learning features that are useful for poverty prediction. The model learns filters identifying different terrains and man-made structures, including roads, buildings, and farmlands, without any supervision beyond nighttime lights. We demonstrate that these learned features are highly informative for poverty mapping, even approaching the predictive performance of survey data collected in the field.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2015

Tight Variational Bounds via Random Projections and I-Projections

Information projections are the key building block of variational inference algorithms and are used to approximate a target probabilistic model by projecting it onto a family of tractable distributions. In general, there is no guarantee on the quality of the approximation obtained. To overcome this issue, we introduce a new class of random projections to reduce the dimensionality and hence the complexity of the original model. In the spirit of random projections, the projection preserves (with high probability) key properties of the target distribution. We show that information projections can be combined with random projections to obtain provable guarantees on the quality of the approximation obtained, regardless of the complexity of the original model. We demonstrate empirically that augmenting mean field with a random projection step dramatically improves partition function and marginal probability estimates, both on synthetic and real world data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2014

Pattern Decomposition with Complex Combinatorial Constraints: Application to Materials Discovery

Identifying important components or factors in large amounts of noisy data is a key problem in machine learning and data mining. Motivated by a pattern decomposition problem in materials discovery, aimed at discovering new materials for renewable energy, e.g. for fuel and solar cells, we introduce CombiFD, a framework for factor based pattern decomposition that allows the incorporation of a-priori knowledge as constraints, including complex combinatorial constraints. In addition, we propose a new pattern decomposition algorithm, called AMIQO, based on solving a sequence of (mixed-integer) quadratic programs. Our approach considerably outperforms the state of the art on the materials discovery problem, scaling to larger datasets and recovering more precise and physically meaningful decompositions. We also show the effectiveness of our approach for enforcing background knowledge on other application domains.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2013

Optimization With Parity Constraints: From Binary Codes to Discrete Integration

Many probabilistic inference tasks involve summations over exponentially large sets. Recently, it has been shown that these problems can be reduced to solving a polynomial number of MAP inference queries for a model augmented with randomly generated parity constraints. By exploiting a connection with max-likelihood decoding of binary codes, we show that these optimizations are computationally hard. Inspired by iterative message passing decoding algorithms, we propose an Integer Linear Programming (ILP) formulation for the problem, enhanced with new sparsification techniques to improve decoding performance. By solving the ILP through a sequence of LP relaxations, we get both lower and upper bounds on the partition function, which hold with high probability and are much tighter than those obtained with variational methods.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2013

Taming the Curse of Dimensionality: Discrete Integration by Hashing and Optimization

Integration is affected by the curse of dimensionality and quickly becomes intractable as the dimensionality of the problem grows. We propose a randomized algorithm that, with high probability, gives a constant-factor approximation of a general discrete integral defined over an exponentially large set. This algorithm relies on solving only a small number of instances of a discrete combinatorial optimization problem subject to randomly generated parity constraints used as a hash function. As an application, we demonstrate that with a small number of MAP queries we can efficiently approximate the partition function of discrete graphical models, which can in turn be used, for instance, for marginal computation or model selection.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

Uniform Solution Sampling Using a Constraint Solver As an Oracle

We consider the problem of sampling from solutions defined by a set of hard constraints on a combinatorial space. We propose a new sampling technique that, while enforcing a uniform exploration of the search space, leverages the reasoning power of a systematic constraint solver in a black-box scheme. We present a series of challenging domains, such as energy barriers and highly asymmetric spaces, that reveal the difficulties introduced by hard constraints. We demonstrate that standard approaches such as Simulated Annealing and Gibbs Sampling are greatly affected, while our new technique can overcome many of these difficulties. Finally, we show that our sampling scheme naturally defines a new approximate model counting technique, which we empirically show to be very accurate on a range of benchmark problems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2012

Playing games against nature: optimal policies for renewable resource allocation

In this paper we introduce a class of Markov decision processes that arise as a natural model for many renewable resource allocation problems. Upon extending results from the inventory control literature, we prove that they admit a closed form solution and we show how to exploit this structure to speed up its computation. We consider the application of the proposed framework to several problems arising in very different domains, and as part of the ongoing effort in the emerging field of Computational Sustainability we discuss in detail its application to the Northern Pacific Halibut marine fishery. Our approach is applied to a model based on real world data, obtaining a policy with a guaranteed lower bound on the utility function that is structurally very different from the one currently employed.

cs.AI↗