Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Large Hadron Collider to 2025 and beyond
Social cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of projects has been successfully applied in different fields such as transport, energy, health, education, and environment, including climate change. It is often argued that it is impossible to extend the CBA approach to the evaluation of the social impact of research infrastructures, because the final benefit to society of scientific discovery is generally unpredictable. Here, we propose a quantitative approach to this problem, we use it to design an empirically testable CBA model, and we apply it to the the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the highest-energy accelerator in the world, currently operating at CERN. We show that the evaluation of benefits can be made quantitative by determining their value to users (scientists, early-stage researchers, firms, visitors) and non-users (the general public). Four classes of contributions to users are identified: knowledge output, human capital development, technological spillovers, and cultural effects. Benefits for non-users can be estimated, in analogy to public goods with no practical use (such as environment preservation), using willingness to pay. We determine the probability distribution of cost and benefits for the LHC since 1993 until planned decommissioning in 2025, and we find there is a 92% probability that benefits exceed its costs, with an expected net present value of about 3 billion euro, not including the unpredictable economic value of discovery of any new physics. We argue that the evaluation approach proposed here can be replicated for any large-scale research infrastructure, thus helping the decision-making on competing projects, with a socio-economic appraisal complementary to other evaluation criteria.