arXiv subjects

Stefano Guarino

Publications and source records attributed to Stefano Guarino.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Epidemics in a Synthetic Urban Population with Multiple Levels of Mixing

Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and age--stratified synthetic urban population connected by stable social relations. We consider two kinds of interactions, distinguishing daily (household) contacts from other frequent contacts. Moreover, we allow any couple of individuals to have rare fortuitous interactions. We simulate the epidemic diffusion on a synthetic urban network for a typical medium-size Italian city and characterize the outbreak speed, pervasiveness, and predictability in terms of the socio--demographic and geographic features of the host population. Introducing age--structured contact patterns results in faster and more pervasive outbreaks, while assuming that the interaction frequency decays with distance has only negligible effects. Preliminary evidence shows the existence of patterns of hierarchical spatial diffusion in urban areas, with two regimes for epidemic spread in low- and high-density regions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Leveraging Content Producer Networks and User Perception to Detect Online Discursive Communities

Online discussions are often characterized by strong behavioral asymmetries: a relatively small fraction of users actively produces content, while the majority primarily consumes and redistributes it. Here we propose a community-detection framework for online social networks that exploits this asymmetry by first identifying and clustering a set of leading users, and then extending the resulting labels to the broader user base. We introduce two complementary strategies to cluster leaders, one based on their mutual interactions and the other on audience overlap, both relying on entropy-based filtering to separate signal from noise. We evaluate the framework on three major Italian political debates on Twitter/X, using public figures--identified through the pre-2022 verification system--as leaders, and known affiliations of political actors as ground truth labels. Compared with standard baselines, the proposed approach yields more coherent and interpretable communities aligned with political structures, with the two variants respectively recovering parties and coalitions. Activity-based criteria for selecting leaders produce qualitatively similar but consistently weaker results, particularly at the coalition level. Overall, our findings show that creating statistically validated networks of publicly recognized figures, whose off-platform roles constrain and stabilize their online behavior, provide a strong basis to identify discursive communities on social media. Although developed for Twitter/X, the approach is conceptually general, as it leverages structural asymmetries common to many online platforms.

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arXiv2026

Impact of behavioral heterogeneity on epidemic outcome and its mapping into effective network topologies

Human behavior plays a critical role in shaping epidemic trajectories. During health crises, people respond in diverse ways in terms of self-protection and adherence to recommended measures, largely reflecting differences in how individuals assess risk. This behavioral variability induces effective heterogeneity into key epidemic parameters, such as infectivity and susceptibility. We introduce a minimal extension of the susceptible-infected-removed~(SIR) model, denoted HeSIR, that captures these effects through a simple bimodal scheme, where individuals may have higher or lower transmission--related traits. We derive a closed-form expression for the epidemic threshold in terms of the model parameters, and the network's degree distribution and homophily, defined as the tendency of like--risk individuals to preferentially interact. We identify a resurgence regime just beyond the classical threshold, where the number of infected individuals may initially decline before surging into large-scale transmission. Through simulations on homogeneous and heterogeneous network topologies we corroborate the analytical results and highlight how variations in susceptibility and infectivity influence the epidemic dynamics. We further show that, under suitable assumptions, the HeSIR model maps onto a standard SIR process on an appropriately modified contact network, providing a unified interpretation in terms of structural connectivity. Our findings quantify the effect of heterogeneous behavioral responses, especially in the presence of homophily, and caution against underestimating epidemic potential in fragmented populations, which may undermine timely containment efforts. The results also extend to heterogeneity arising from biological or other non-behavioral sources.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

The Physics of News, Rumors, and Opinions

The boundaries between physical and social networks have narrowed with the advent of the Internet and its pervasive platforms. This has given rise to a complex adaptive information ecosystem where individuals and machines compete for attention, leading to emergent collective phenomena. The flow of information in this ecosystem is often non-trivial and involves complex user strategies from the forging or strategic amplification of manipulative content to large-scale coordinated behavior that trigger misinformation cascades, echo-chamber reinforcement, and opinion polarization. We argue that statistical physics provides a suitable and necessary framework for analyzing the unfolding of these complex dynamics on socio-technological systems. This review systematically covers the foundational and applied aspects of this framework. The review is structured to first establish the theoretical foundation for analyzing these complex systems, examining both structural models of complex networks and physical models of social dynamics (e.g., epidemic and spin models). We then ground these concepts by describing the modern media ecosystem where these dynamics currently unfold, including a comparative analysis of platforms and the challenge of information disorders. The central sections proceed to apply this framework to two central phenomena: first, by analyzing the collective dynamics of information spreading, with a dedicated focus on the models, the main empirical insights, and the unique traits characterizing misinformation; and second, by reviewing current models of opinion dynamics, spanning discrete, continuous, and coevolutionary approaches. In summary, we review both empirical findings based on massive data analytics and theoretical advances, highlighting the valuable insights obtained from physics-based efforts to investigate these phenomena of high societal impact.

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arXiv2025

Random Hyperbolic Graphs with Arbitrary Mesoscale Structures

Real-world networks exhibit universal structural properties such as sparsity, small-worldness, heterogeneous degree distributions, high clustering, and community structures. Geometric network models, particularly Random Hyperbolic Graphs (RHGs), effectively capture many of these features by embedding nodes in a latent similarity space. However, networks are often characterized by specific connectivity patterns between groups of nodes -- i.e. communities -- that are not geometric, in the sense that the dissimilarity between groups do not obey the triangle inequality. Structuring connections only based on the interplay of similarity and popularity thus poses fundamental limitations on the mesoscale structure of the networks that RHGs can generate. To address this limitation, we introduce the Random Hyperbolic Block Model (RHBM), which extends RHGs by incorporating block structures within a maximum-entropy framework. We demonstrate the advantages of the RHBM through synthetic network analyses, highlighting its ability to preserve community structures where purely geometric models fail. Our findings emphasize the importance of latent geometry in network modeling while addressing its limitations in controlling mesoscale mixing patterns.

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arXiv2025

When to Boost: How Dose Timing Determines the Epidemic Threshold

Most vaccines require multiple doses, the first to induce recognition and antibody production and subsequent doses to boost the primary response and achieve optimal protection. We show that properly prioritizing the administration of first and second doses can shift the epidemic threshold, separating the disease-free from the endemic state and potentially preventing widespread outbreaks. Assuming homogeneous mixing, we prove that at a low vaccination rate, the best strategy is to give absolute priority to first doses. In contrast, for high vaccination rates, we propose a scheduling that outperforms a first-come first-served approach. We identify the threshold that separates these two scenarios and derive the optimal prioritization scheme and inter-dose interval. Agent-based simulations on real and synthetic contact networks validate our findings. We provide specific guidelines for effective resource allocation, showing that adjusting the timing between primer and booster significantly impacts epidemic outcomes and can determine whether the disease persists or disappears.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Scaling Expected Force: Efficient Identification of Key Nodes in Network-based Epidemic Models

Centrality measures are fundamental tools of network analysis as they highlight the key actors within the network. This study focuses on a newly proposed centrality measure, Expected Force (EF), and its use in identifying spreaders in network-based epidemic models. We found that EF effectively predicts the spreading power of nodes and identifies key nodes and immunization targets. However, its high computational cost presents a challenge for its use in large networks. To overcome this limitation, we propose two parallel scalable algorithms for computing EF scores: the first algorithm is based on the original formulation, while the second one focuses on a cluster-centric approach to improve efficiency and scalability. Our implementations significantly reduce computation time, allowing for the detection of key nodes at large scales. Performance analysis on synthetic and real-world networks demonstrates that the GPU implementation of our algorithm can efficiently scale to networks with up to 44 million edges by exploiting modern parallel architectures, achieving speed-ups of up to 300x, and 50x on average, compared to the simple parallel solution.

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arXiv2022

The Fitness-Corrected Block Model, or how to create maximum-entropy data-driven spatial social networks

Models of networks play a major role in explaining and reproducing empirically observed patterns. Suitable models can be used to randomize an observed network while preserving some of its features, or to generate synthetic graphs whose properties may be tuned upon the characteristics of a given population. In the present paper, we introduce the Fitness-Corrected Block Model, an adjustable-density variation of the well-known Degree-Corrected Block Model, and we show that the proposed construction yields a maximum entropy model. When the network is sparse, we derive an analytical expression for the degree distribution of the model that depends on just the constraints and the chosen fitness-distribution. Our model is perfectly suited to define maximum-entropy data-driven spatial social networks, where each block identifies vertices having similar position (e.g., residence) and age, and where the expected block-to-block adjacency matrix can be inferred from the available data. In this case, the sparse-regime approximation coincides with a phenomenological model where the probability of a link binding two individuals is directly proportional to their sociability and to the typical cohesion of their age-groups, whereas it decays as an inverse-power of their geographic distance. We support our analytical findings through simulations of a stylized urban area.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Inferring urban social networks from publicly available data

The emergence of social networks and the definition of suitable generative models for synthetic yet realistic social graphs are widely studied problems in the literature. By not being tied to any real data, random graph models cannot capture all the subtleties of real networks and are inadequate for many practical contexts -- including areas of research, such as computational epidemiology, which are recently high on the agenda. At the same time, the so-called contact networks describe interactions, rather than relationships, and are strongly dependent on the application and on the size and quality of the sample data used to infer them. To fill the gap between these two approaches, we present a data-driven model for urban social networks, implemented and released as open source software. Given a territory of interest, and only based on widely available aggregated demographic and social-mixing data, we construct an age-stratified and geo-referenced synthetic population whose individuals are connected by "strong ties" of two types: intra-household (e.g., kinship) or friendship. While household links are entirely data-driven, we propose a parametric probabilistic model for friendship, based on the assumption that distances and age differences play a role, and that not all individuals are equally sociable. The demographic and geographic factors governing the structure of the obtained network, under different configurations, are thoroughly studied through extensive simulations focused on three Italian cities of different size.

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arXiv2021

Onion under Microscope: An in-depth analysis of the Tor network

Tor is an anonymity network that allows offering and accessing various kinds of resources, known as hidden services, while guaranteeing sender and receiver anonymity. The Tor web is the set of web resources that exist on the Tor network, and Tor websites are part of the so-called dark web. Recent research works have evaluated Tor security, evolution over time, and thematic organization. Nevertheless, few information are available about the structure of the graph defined by the network of Tor websites. The limited number of Tor entry points that can be used to crawl the network renders the study of this graph far from being simple. In this paper we aim at better characterizing the Tor Web by analyzing three crawling datasets collected over a five-month time frame. On the one hand, we extensively study the global properties of the Tor Web, considering two different graph representations and verifying the impact of Tor's renowned volatility. We present an in depth investigation of the key features of the Tor Web graph showing what makes it different from the surface Web graph. On the other hand, we assess the relationship between contents and structural features. We analyse the local properties of the Tor Web to better characterize the role different services play in the network and to understand to which extent topological features are related to the contents of a service.

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arXiv2020

Characterizing networks of propaganda on Twitter: a case study

The daily exposure of social media users to propaganda and disinformation campaigns has reinvigorated the need to investigate the local and global patterns of diffusion of different (mis)information content on social media. Echo chambers and influencers are often deemed responsible of both the polarization of users in online social networks and the success of propaganda and disinformation campaigns. This article adopts a data-driven approach to investigate the structuration of communities and propaganda networks on Twitter in order to assess the correctness of these imputations. In particular, the work aims at characterizing networks of propaganda extracted from a Twitter dataset by combining the information gained by three different classification approaches, focused respectively on (i) using Tweets content to infer the "polarization" of users around a specific topic, (ii) identifying users having an active role in the diffusion of different propaganda and disinformation items, and (iii) analyzing social ties to identify topological clusters and users playing a "central" role in the network. The work identifies highly partisan community structures along political alignments; furthermore, centrality metrics proved to be very informative to detect the most active users in the network and to distinguish users playing different roles; finally, polarization and clustering structure of the retweet graphs provided useful insights about relevant properties of users exposure, interactions, and participation to different propaganda items.

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arXiv2020

Information disorders on Italian Facebook during COVID-19 infodemic

In this work we carry out an exploratory analysis of online conversations on the Italian Facebook during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the circulation of controversial topics associated with the origin of the virus, which involve popular targets of misinformation, such as migrants and 5G technology. We collected over 1.5 M posts in Italian language and related to COVID-19, shared by nearly 80k public pages and groups for a period of four months since January 2020. Overall, we find that potentially harmful content shared by unreliable sources is substantially negligible compared to traditional news websites, and that discussions over controversial topics has a limited engagement w.r.t to the pandemic in general. Besides, we highlight a "small-worldness" effect in the URL sharing diffusion network, indicating that users navigating through a limited set of pages could reach almost the entire pool of shared content related to the pandemic, thus being easily exposed to harmful propaganda as well as to verified information on the virus.

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