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Stefano Marmi

Publications and source records attributed to Stefano Marmi.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2021

Analysis of bank leverage via dynamical systems and deep neural networks

We consider a model of a simple financial system consisting of a leveraged investor that invests in a risky asset and manages risk by using Value-at-Risk (VaR). The VaR is estimated by using past data via an adaptive expectation scheme. We show that the leverage dynamics can be described by a dynamical system of slow-fast type associated with a unimodal map on [0,1] with an additive heteroscedastic noise whose variance is related to the portfolio rebalancing frequency to target leverage. In absence of noise the model is purely deterministic and the parameter space splits in two regions: (i) a region with a globally attracting fixed point or a 2-cycle; (ii) a dynamical core region, where the map could exhibit chaotic behavior. Whenever the model is randomly perturbed, we prove the existence of a unique stationary density with bounded variation, the stochastic stability of the process and the almost certain existence and continuity of the Lyapunov exponent for the stationary measure. We then use deep neural networks to estimate map parameters from a short time series. Using this method, we estimate the model in a large dataset of US commercial banks over the period 2001-2014. We find that the parameters of a substantial fraction of banks lie in the dynamical core, and their leverage time series are consistent with a chaotic behavior. We also present evidence that the time series of the leverage of large banks tend to exhibit chaoticity more frequently than those of small banks.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2020

On the regularity of Mather's $β$-function for standard-like twist maps

We consider the minimal average action (Mather's $β$ function) for area preserving twist maps of the annulus. The regularity properties of this function share interesting relations with the dynamics of the system. We prove that the $β$-function associated to a standard-like twist map admits a unique $C^1$-holomorphic complex extension, which coincides with this function on the set of real diophantine frequencies.

math.DS↗
arXiv2019

On Roth type conditions, duality and central Birkhoff sums for i.e.m

We introduce two Diophantine conditions on rotation numbers of interval exchange maps (i.e.m) and translation surfaces: the \emph{absolute Roth type condition} is a weakening of the notion of Roth type i.e.m., while the \emph{dual Roth type} condition is a condition on the \emph{backward} rotation number of a translation surface. We show that results on the cohomological equation previously proved in \cite{MY} for restricted Roth type i.e.m. (on the solvability under finitely many obstructions and the regularity of the solutions) can be extended to restricted \emph{absolute} Roth type i.e.m. Under the dual Roth type condition, we associate to a class of functions with \emph{subpolynomial} deviations of ergodic averages (corresponding to relative homology classes) \emph{distributional} limit shapes, which are constructed in a similar way to the \emph{limit shapes} of Birkhoff sums associated in \cite{MMY3} to functions which correspond to positive Lyapunov exponents.

math.DS↗
arXiv2018

Cohomological equation and local conjugacy class of Diophantine interval exchange maps

We extend some results of Marmi--Moussa--Yoccoz on the cohomological equations and local conjugacy classes of interval exchange maps of restricted Roth type. In particular, we answer a question of Krikorian about the codimension of the local conjugacy class of self-similar interval exchange maps associated to the Eierlegende Wollmilchsau and the Ornithorynque.

math.DS↗
arXiv2018

Coupling the Yoccoz-Birkeland population model with price dynamics: chaotic livestock commodities market cycles

We propose a new model for the time evolution of livestock commodities which exhibits endogenous deterministic stochastic behaviour. The model is based on the Yoccoz-Birkeland integral equation, a model first developed for studying the time-evolution of single species with high average fertility, a relatively short mating season and density dependent reproduction rates. This equation is then coupled with a differential equation describing the price of a livestock commodity driven by the unbalance between its demand and supply. At its birth the cattle population is split into two parts: reproducing females and cattle for butchery. The relative amount of the two is determined by the spot price of the meat. We prove the existence of an attractor and we investigate numerically its properties: the strange attractor existing for the original Yoccoz-Birkeland model is persistent but its chaotic behaviour depends also from the price evolution in an essential way.

math.DS↗
arXiv2018

When panic makes you blind: a chaotic route to systemic risk

We present an analytical model to study the role of expectation feedbacks and overlapping portfolios on systemic stability of financial systems. Building on [Corsi et al., 2016], we model a set of financial institutions having Value at Risk capital requirements and investing in a portfolio of risky assets, whose prices evolve stochastically in time and are endogenously driven by the trading decisions of financial institutions. Assuming that they use adaptive expectations of risk, we show that the evolution of the system is described by a slow-fast random dynamical system, which can be studied analytically in some regimes. The model shows how the risk expectations play a central role in determining the systemic stability of the financial system and how wrong risk expectations may create panic-induced reduction or over-optimistic expansion of balance sheets. Specifically, when investors are myopic in estimating the risk, the fixed point equilibrium of the system breaks into leverage cycles and financial variables display a bifurcation cascade eventually leading to chaos. We discuss the role of financial policy and the effects of some market frictions, as the cost of diversification and financial transaction taxes, in determining the stability of the system in the presence of adaptive expectations of risk.

econ.GN↗
arXiv2017

Long Hitting time for translation flows and L-shaped billiards

We consider the flow in direction $θ$ on a translation surface and we study the asymptotic behavior for $r\to 0$ of the time needed by orbits to hit the $r$-neighborhood of a prescribed point, or more precisely the exponent of the corresponding power law, which is known as hitting time. For flat tori the limsup of hitting time is equal to the diophantine type of the direction $θ$. In higher genus, we consider a generalized geometric notion of diophantine type of a direction $θ$ and we seek for relations with hitting time. For genus two surfaces with just one conical singularity we prove that the limsup of hitting time is always less or equal to the square of the diophantine type. For any square-tiled surface with the same topology the diophantine type itself is a lower bound, and any value between the two bounds can be realized, moreover this holds also for a larger class of origamis satisfying a specific topological assumption. Finally, for the so-called Eierlegende Wollmilchsau origami, the equality between limsup of hitting time and diophantine type subsists. Our results apply to L-shaped billiards.

math.DS↗
arXiv2017

Matching in a family of piecewise affine maps

We consider a class of simple one parameter families of interval maps, and we study how metric (resp. topological) entropy changes as the parameter varies. We show that in many cases the entropy displays a semi-regular behaviour, i.e. it is smooth on an open and dense set. This feature is due to a combinatorial property called matching

math.DS↗
arXiv2016

Entropy and efficiency of the ETF market

We investigate the relative information efficiency of financial markets by measuring the entropy of the time series of high frequency data. Our tool to measure efficiency is the Shannon entropy, applied to 2-symbol and 3-symbol discretisations of the data. Analysing 1-minute and 5-minute price time series of 55 Exchange Traded Funds traded at the New York Stock Exchange, we develop a methodology to isolate true inefficiencies from other sources of regularities, such as the intraday pattern, the volatility clustering and the microstructure effects. The first two are modelled as multiplicative factors, while the microstructure is modelled as an ARMA noise process. Following an analytical and empirical combined approach, we find a strong relationship between low entropy and high relative tick size and that volatility is responsible for the largest amount of regularity, averaging 62% of the total regularity against 18% of the intraday pattern regularity and 20% of the microstructure.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2015

Collective synchronization and high frequency systemic instabilities in financial markets

Recent years have seen an unprecedented rise of the role that technology plays in all aspects of human activities. Unavoidably, technology has heavily entered the Capital Markets trading space, to the extent that all major exchanges are now trading exclusively using electronic platforms. The ultra fast speed of information processing, order placement, and cancelling generates new dynamics which is still not completely deciphered. Analyzing a large dataset of stocks traded on the US markets, our study evidences that since 2001 the level of synchronization of large price movements across assets has significantly increased. Even though the total number of over-threshold events has diminished in recent years, when an event occurs, the average number of assets swinging together has increased. Quite unexpectedly, only a minor fraction of these events -- regularly less than 40% along all years -- can be connected with the release of pre-announced macroeconomic news. We also document that the larger is the level of sistemicity of an event, the larger is the probability -- and degree of sistemicity -- that a new event will occur in the near future. This opens the way to the intriguing idea that systemic events emerge as an effect of a purely endogenous mechanism. Consistently, we present a high-dimensional, yet parsimonious, model based on a class of self- and cross-exciting processes, termed Hawkes processes, which reconciles the modeling effort with the empirical evidence.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2014

Distribution of the asset price movement and market potential

In this article we discuss the distribution of asset price movements by the market potential function. From the principle of free energy minimization we analyze two different kinds of market potentials. We obtain a U-shaped potential when market reversion (i.e. contrarian investors) is dominant. On the other hand, if there are more trend followers, flat and logarithmic--like potentials appeared. By using the Cyclical Adjusted Price-to-Earning ratio, which is a common valuation tool, we empirically investigate the market data. By studying long term data we observe the historical change of the market potential of the US stock market. Recent US data shows that the market potential looks more likely as the trending followers' potential. Next, we compare the market potentials for 12 different countries. Though some countries have similar market potentials, there are specific examples like Japan which exhibits very flat potential.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2013

Value matters: Predictability of Stock Index Returns

We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More precisely, we discuss a discrete time dynamics in which the return growth depends on three components: i) a momentum component, naturally justified in terms of agents' belief that expected returns are higher in bullish markets than in bearish ones, ii) a fundamental component proportional to the logarithmic CAPE at time zero. The initial value of the ratio determines the reference growth level, from which the actual stock price may deviate as an effect of random external disturbances, and iii) a driving component which ensures the diffusive behaviour of stock prices. Under these assumptions, we prove that for a sufficiently large horizon the expected rate of return and the expected gross return are linear in the initial logarithmic CAPE, and their variance goes to zero with a rate of convergence consistent with the diffusive behaviour. Eventually this means that the momentum component may generate bubbles and crashes in the short and medium run, nevertheless the valuation ratio remains a good reference point of future long-run returns.

q-fin.GN↗
arXiv2013

Bounded type interval exchange maps

Irrational numbers of bounded type have several equivalent characterizations. They have bounded partial quotients in terms of arithmetic characterization and in the dynamics of the circle rotation, the rescaled recurrence time to $r$-ball of the initial point is bounded below. In this paper, we consider how the bounded type condition of irrational is generalized into interval exchange maps.

math.DS↗
arXiv2013

Evolution of correlation structure of industrial indices of US equity markets

We investigate the dynamics of correlations present between pairs of industry indices of US stocks traded in US markets by studying correlation based networks and spectral properties of the correlation matrix. The study is performed by using 49 industry index time series computed by K. French and E. Fama during the time period from July 1969 to December 2011 that is spanning more than 40 years. We show that the correlation between industry indices presents both a fast and a slow dynamics. The slow dynamics has a time scale longer than five years showing that a different degree of diversification of the investment is possible in different periods of time. On top to this slow dynamics, we also detect a fast dynamics associated with exogenous or endogenous events. The fast time scale we use is a monthly time scale and the evaluation time period is a 3 month time period. By investigating the correlation dynamics monthly, we are able to detect two examples of fast variations in the first and second eigenvalue of the correlation matrix. The first occurs during the dot-com bubble (from March 1999 to April 2001) and the second occurs during the period of highest impact of the subprime crisis (from August 2008 to August 2009).

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2013

Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models

Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2012

Natural boundary for the susceptibility function of generic piecewise expanding unimodal maps

We consider the susceptibility function Psi(z) of a piecewise expanding unimodal interval map f with unique acim mu, a perturbation X, and an observable phi. Combining previous results (deduced from spectral properties of Ruelle transfer operators) with recent work of Breuer-Simon (based on techniques from the spectral theory of Jacobi matrices and a classical paper of Agmon), we show that density of the postcritical orbit (a generic condition) implies that Psi(z) has a strong natural boundary on the unit circle. The Breuer-Simon method provides uncountably many candidates for the outer functions of Psi(z), associated to precritical orbits. If the perturbation X is horizontal, a generic condition (Birkhoff typicality of the postcritical orbit) implies that the nontangential limit of the Psi(z) as z tends to 1 exists and coincides with the derivative of the acim with respect to the map (linear response formula). Applying the Wiener-Wintner theorem, we study the singularity type of nontangential limits as z tends to e^{iω}. An additional LIL typicality assumption on the postcritical orbit gives stronger results.

math.DS↗