arXiv subjects

Stefano Sarao Mannelli

Publications and source records attributed to Stefano Sarao Mannelli.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

High-Dimensional Asymptotics and Dataset Selection for Private Transfer Learning

To commit to buying external data or participate in collaborative learning, one must decide whether the additional data will improve prediction enough to justify the cost. This comes with several challenges: (i) the decision often relies only on aggregated statistics available publicly, rather than individual-level data; (ii) covariate and model shifts can induce negative transfer, so the additional data deteriorates rather than improves performance; (iii) if the data is sensitive, its privatization requires the injection of noise, which can also offset the benefit of a larger sample size. In this paper, we model the problem of dataset selection through high-dimensional regression with multiple heterogeneous sources and a weighted ridge estimator. Our approach uses only summary statistics and it gives privacy guarantees either on labels only or jointly on features and labels, in terms of $ρ$-zero-concentrated differential privacy. The main technical contribution is a deterministic equivalent of the test error, which captures the interactions between sample size, covariance structure, model shift, regularization and privacy noise. Our theory allows to optimize hyperparameters (weights and ridge regularizers) and, more broadly, to decide when private external datasets are useful without accessing the data itself but only relying on population-level quantities. This provides a theoretically tractable foundation for private transfer learning, which we support via experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Sharp description of local minima in the loss landscape of high-dimensional two-layer ReLU neural networks

We study the population loss landscape of two-layer ReLU networks of the form $\sum_{k=1}^K \mathrm{ReLU}(w_k^\top x)$ in a realisable teacher-student setting with Gaussian covariates. We show that local minima admit an exact low-dimensional representation in terms of summary statistics, yielding a sharp and interpretable characterisation of the landscape. We further establish a direct link with one-pass SGD: local minima correspond to attractive fixed points of the dynamics in summary statistics space. This perspective reveals a hierarchical organisation of minima into discrete families and shows how overparameterisation changes their stability and reachability under gradient-based dynamics. In this overparameterised regime, global minima become increasingly accessible, attracting the dynamics and reducing convergence to spurious solutions. Overall, our results reveal intrinsic limitations of common simplifying assumptions, which may miss essential features of the loss landscape even in minimal neural network models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Position: the Stochastic Parrot in the Coal Mine. Model Collapse is a Threat to Low-Resource Communities

Model collapse, the degradation in performance that arises when generative models are trained on the outputs of prior models, is an increasing concern as artificially generated content proliferates. Related critiques of large language models have highlighted their tendency to reproduce frequent patterns in training data, their reliance on vast datasets, and their substantial environmental cost. Together, these factors contribute to data degradation, the reinforcement of cultural biases, and inefficient resource use. In this position paper we aim to combine these views and argue that model collapse threatens current efforts to democratize AI. By reducing training efficiency and skewing data distributions away from the tails of their support, model collapse disproportionately impacts low-resource and marginalized communities. We examine both the environmental and cultural implications of this phenomenon, situate our position within recent position papers on model collapse, and conclude with a call to action. Finally, we outline initial directions for mitigating these effects.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

The Interplay of Data Structure and Imbalance in the Learning Dynamics of Diffusion Models

Real-world datasets are inherently heterogeneous, yet how per-class structural differences and sampling imbalance shape the training dynamics of diffusion models-and potentially exacerbate disparities-remains poorly understood. While models typically transition from an initial phase of generalization to memorizing the training set, existing theory assumes homogeneous data, leaving open how class imbalance and heterogeneity reshape these dynamics. In this work, we develop a high-dimensional analytical framework to study class-dependent learning in score-based diffusion models. Analyzing a random-features model trained on Gaussian mixtures, we derive the feature-covariance spectrum to characterize per-class generalization and memorization times. We reveal the explicit hierarchy governing these dynamics: class variance is the primary determinant of learning order-consistently favoring higher-variance classes-while centroid geometry plays a secondary role. Sampling imbalance acts as a modulator that can reverse this ordering and, under strong imbalance, forces minority classes to acquire distinct, delayed speciation times during backward diffusion. Together, these results suggest that diffusion models can memorize some classes while others remain insufficiently learned. We validate our theoretical predictions empirically using U-Net models trained on Fashion MNIST.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Reducing Recurrent Competitive Epidemics via Dynamic Resource Allocation

Motivated by scenarios of epidemic competition, as well as how social contagions spread at the level of individuals, this work considers the competition between two conflicting node states that spread over a social graph according to a generic diffusion process. For this setting, we introduce the Generalized Largest Reduction in Infectious Edges (gLRIE), which is a dynamic resource allocation strategy that favors the preferred state against the other. Our analysis assumes a generic continuous-time SIS-like (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible) diffusion model that allows for: arbitrary node transition rate functions for nodes to change state, and competition between the healthy (positive) and infected (negative) states, which are both diffusive at the same time, yet mutually exclusive at each node. The strategy follows a minimum-risk-maximum-gain principle, and its features are particularly relevant for social contagion phenomena. In accordance with the LRIE strategy that we generalize, we show that in this context the gLRIE strategy remains a greedy solution for the minimization of the number of infected network nodes over time. Ultimately, simulations are employed to compare the proposed strategy with other existing alternatives, demonstrating that gLRIE exhibits superior performance across a spectrum of scenarios, including a realistic counter-contagion campaign in a small well-monitored community.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Optimal Protocols for Continual Learning via Statistical Physics and Control Theory

Artificial neural networks often struggle with catastrophic forgetting when learning multiple tasks sequentially, as training on new tasks degrades the performance on previously learned tasks. Recent theoretical work has addressed this issue by analysing learning curves in synthetic frameworks under predefined training protocols. However, these protocols relied on heuristics and lacked a solid theoretical foundation assessing their optimality. In this paper, we fill this gap by combining exact equations for training dynamics, derived using statistical physics techniques, with optimal control methods. We apply this approach to teacher-student models for continual learning and multi-task problems, obtaining a theory for task-selection protocols maximising performance while minimising forgetting. Our theoretical analysis offers non-trivial yet interpretable strategies for mitigating catastrophic forgetting, shedding light on how optimal learning protocols modulate established effects, such as the influence of task similarity on forgetting. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with experiments on real-world data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Theory of Initialisation's Impact on Specialisation

Prior work has demonstrated a consistent tendency in neural networks engaged in continual learning tasks, wherein intermediate task similarity results in the highest levels of catastrophic interference. This phenomenon is attributed to the network's tendency to reuse learned features across tasks. However, this explanation heavily relies on the premise that neuron specialisation occurs, i.e. the emergence of localised representations. Our investigation challenges the validity of this assumption. Using theoretical frameworks for the analysis of neural networks, we show a strong dependence of specialisation on the initial condition. More precisely, we show that weight imbalance and high weight entropy can favour specialised solutions. We then apply these insights in the context of continual learning, first showing the emergence of a monotonic relation between task-similarity and forgetting in non-specialised networks. {Finally, we show that specialization by weight imbalance is beneficial on the commonly employed elastic weight consolidation regularisation technique.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Bias in Motion: Theoretical Insights into the Dynamics of Bias in SGD Training

Machine learning systems often acquire biases by leveraging undesired features in the data, impacting accuracy variably across different sub-populations. Current understanding of bias formation mostly focuses on the initial and final stages of learning, leaving a gap in knowledge regarding the transient dynamics. To address this gap, this paper explores the evolution of bias in a teacher-student setup modeling different data sub-populations with a Gaussian-mixture model. We provide an analytical description of the stochastic gradient descent dynamics of a linear classifier in this setting, which we prove to be exact in high dimension. Notably, our analysis reveals how different properties of sub-populations influence bias at different timescales, showing a shifting preference of the classifier during training. Applying our findings to fairness and robustness, we delineate how and when heterogeneous data and spurious features can generate and amplify bias. We empirically validate our results in more complex scenarios by training deeper networks on synthetic and real datasets, including CIFAR10, MNIST, and CelebA.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

The RL Perceptron: Generalisation Dynamics of Policy Learning in High Dimensions

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have proven transformative in a range of domains. To tackle real-world domains, these systems often use neural networks to learn policies directly from pixels or other high-dimensional sensory input. By contrast, much theory of RL has focused on discrete state spaces or worst-case analysis, and fundamental questions remain about the dynamics of policy learning in high-dimensional settings. Here, we propose a solvable high-dimensional model of RL that can capture a variety of learning protocols, and derive its typical dynamics as a set of closed-form ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We derive optimal schedules for the learning rates and task difficulty - analogous to annealing schemes and curricula during training in RL - and show that the model exhibits rich behaviour, including delayed learning under sparse rewards; a variety of learning regimes depending on reward baselines; and a speed-accuracy trade-off driven by reward stringency. Experiments on variants of the Procgen game "Bossfight" and Arcade Learning Environment game "Pong" also show such a speed-accuracy trade-off in practice. Together, these results take a step towards closing the gap between theory and practice in high-dimensional RL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Bias-inducing geometries: an exactly solvable data model with fairness implications

Machine learning (ML) may be oblivious to human bias but it is not immune to its perpetuation. Marginalisation and iniquitous group representation are often traceable in the very data used for training, and may be reflected or even enhanced by the learning models. In the present work, we aim at clarifying the role played by data geometry in the emergence of ML bias. We introduce an exactly solvable high-dimensional model of data imbalance, where parametric control over the many bias-inducing factors allows for an extensive exploration of the bias inheritance mechanism. Through the tools of statistical physics, we analytically characterise the typical properties of learning models trained in this synthetic framework and obtain exact predictions for the observables that are commonly employed for fairness assessment. Despite the simplicity of the data model, we retrace and unpack typical unfairness behaviour observed on real-world datasets. We also obtain a detailed analytical characterisation of a class of bias mitigation strategies. We first consider a basic loss-reweighing scheme, which allows for an implicit minimisation of different unfairness metrics, and quantify the incompatibilities between some existing fairness criteria. Then, we consider a novel mitigation strategy based on a matched inference approach, consisting in the introduction of coupled learning models. Our theoretical analysis of this approach shows that the coupled strategy can strike superior fairness-accuracy trade-offs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Tilting the Odds at the Lottery: the Interplay of Overparameterisation and Curricula in Neural Networks

A wide range of empirical and theoretical works have shown that overparameterisation can amplify the performance of neural networks. According to the lottery ticket hypothesis, overparameterised networks have an increased chance of containing a sub-network that is well-initialised to solve the task at hand. A more parsimonious approach, inspired by animal learning, consists in guiding the learner towards solving the task by curating the order of the examples, i.e. providing a curriculum. However, this learning strategy seems to be hardly beneficial in deep learning applications. In this work, we undertake an analytical study that connects curriculum learning and overparameterisation. In particular, we investigate their interplay in the online learning setting for a 2-layer network in the XOR-like Gaussian Mixture problem. Our results show that a high degree of overparameterisation -- while simplifying the problem -- can limit the benefit from curricula, providing a theoretical account of the ineffectiveness of curricula in deep learning.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Why Do Animals Need Shaping? A Theory of Task Composition and Curriculum Learning

Diverse studies in systems neuroscience begin with extended periods of curriculum training known as `shaping' procedures. These involve progressively studying component parts of more complex tasks, and can make the difference between learning a task quickly, slowly or not at all. Despite the importance of shaping to the acquisition of complex tasks, there is as yet no theory that can help guide the design of shaping procedures, or more fundamentally, provide insight into its key role in learning. Modern deep reinforcement learning systems might implicitly learn compositional primitives within their multilayer policy networks. Inspired by these models, we propose and analyse a model of deep policy gradient learning of simple compositional reinforcement learning tasks. Using the tools of statistical physics, we solve for exact learning dynamics and characterise different learning strategies including primitives pre-training, in which task primitives are studied individually before learning compositional tasks. We find a complex interplay between task complexity and the efficacy of shaping strategies. Overall, our theory provides an analytical understanding of the benefits of shaping in a class of compositional tasks and a quantitative account of how training protocols can disclose useful task primitives, ultimately yielding faster and more robust learning.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2023

Optimal transfer protocol by incremental layer defrosting

Transfer learning is a powerful tool enabling model training with limited amounts of data. This technique is particularly useful in real-world problems where data availability is often a serious limitation. The simplest transfer learning protocol is based on ``freezing" the feature-extractor layers of a network pre-trained on a data-rich source task, and then adapting only the last layers to a data-poor target task. This workflow is based on the assumption that the feature maps of the pre-trained model are qualitatively similar to the ones that would have been learned with enough data on the target task. In this work, we show that this protocol is often sub-optimal, and the largest performance gain may be achieved when smaller portions of the pre-trained network are kept frozen. In particular, we make use of a controlled framework to identify the optimal transfer depth, which turns out to depend non-trivially on the amount of available training data and on the degree of source-target task correlation. We then characterize transfer optimality by analyzing the internal representations of two networks trained from scratch on the source and the target task through multiple established similarity measures.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

An Analytical Theory of Curriculum Learning in Teacher-Student Networks

In humans and animals, curriculum learning -- presenting data in a curated order - is critical to rapid learning and effective pedagogy. Yet in machine learning, curricula are not widely used and empirically often yield only moderate benefits. This stark difference in the importance of curriculum raises a fundamental theoretical question: when and why does curriculum learning help? In this work, we analyse a prototypical neural network model of curriculum learning in the high-dimensional limit, employing statistical physics methods. Curricula could in principle change both the learning speed and asymptotic performance of a model. To study the former, we provide an exact description of the online learning setting, confirming the long-standing experimental observation that curricula can modestly speed up learning. To study the latter, we derive performance in a batch learning setting, in which a network trains to convergence in successive phases of learning on dataset slices of varying difficulty. With standard training losses, curriculum does not provide generalisation benefit, in line with empirical observations. However, we show that by connecting different learning phases through simple Gaussian priors, curriculum can yield a large improvement in test performance. Taken together, our reduced analytical descriptions help reconcile apparently conflicting empirical results and trace regimes where curriculum learning yields the largest gains. More broadly, our results suggest that fully exploiting a curriculum may require explicit changes to the loss function at curriculum boundaries.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Maslow's Hammer for Catastrophic Forgetting: Node Re-Use vs Node Activation

Continual learning - learning new tasks in sequence while maintaining performance on old tasks - remains particularly challenging for artificial neural networks. Surprisingly, the amount of forgetting does not increase with the dissimilarity between the learned tasks, but appears to be worst in an intermediate similarity regime. In this paper we theoretically analyse both a synthetic teacher-student framework and a real data setup to provide an explanation of this phenomenon that we name Maslow's hammer hypothesis. Our analysis reveals the presence of a trade-off between node activation and node re-use that results in worst forgetting in the intermediate regime. Using this understanding we reinterpret popular algorithmic interventions for catastrophic interference in terms of this trade-off, and identify the regimes in which they are most effective.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Probing transfer learning with a model of synthetic correlated datasets

Transfer learning can significantly improve the sample efficiency of neural networks, by exploiting the relatedness between a data-scarce target task and a data-abundant source task. Despite years of successful applications, transfer learning practice often relies on ad-hoc solutions, while theoretical understanding of these procedures is still limited. In the present work, we re-think a solvable model of synthetic data as a framework for modeling correlation between data-sets. This setup allows for an analytic characterization of the generalization performance obtained when transferring the learned feature map from the source to the target task. Focusing on the problem of training two-layer networks in a binary classification setting, we show that our model can capture a range of salient features of transfer learning with real data. Moreover, by exploiting parametric control over the correlation between the two data-sets, we systematically investigate under which conditions the transfer of features is beneficial for generalization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Analytical Study of Momentum-Based Acceleration Methods in Paradigmatic High-Dimensional Non-Convex Problems

The optimization step in many machine learning problems rarely relies on vanilla gradient descent but it is common practice to use momentum-based accelerated methods. Despite these algorithms being widely applied to arbitrary loss functions, their behaviour in generically non-convex, high dimensional landscapes is poorly understood. In this work, we use dynamical mean field theory techniques to describe analytically the average dynamics of these methods in a prototypical non-convex model: the (spiked) matrix-tensor model. We derive a closed set of equations that describe the behaviour of heavy-ball momentum and Nesterov acceleration in the infinite dimensional limit. By numerical integration of these equations, we observe that these methods speed up the dynamics but do not improve the algorithmic threshold with respect to gradient descent in the spiked model.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2020

Epidemic mitigation by statistical inference from contact tracing data

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic. We develop Bayesian inference methods to estimate the risk that an individual is infected. This inference is based on the list of his recent contacts and their own risk levels, as well as personal information such as results of tests or presence of syndromes. We propose to use probabilistic risk estimation in order to optimize testing and quarantining strategies for the control of an epidemic. Our results show that in some range of epidemic spreading (typically when the manual tracing of all contacts of infected people becomes practically impossible, but before the fraction of infected people reaches the scale where a lock-down becomes unavoidable), this inference of individuals at risk could be an efficient way to mitigate the epidemic. Our approaches translate into fully distributed algorithms that only require communication between individuals who have recently been in contact. Such communication may be encrypted and anonymized and thus compatible with privacy preserving standards. We conclude that probabilistic risk estimation is capable to enhance performance of digital contact tracing and should be considered in the currently developed mobile applications.

q-bio.PE↗